And there you have the full list of Oscar nominees. La La Land enters a three-way tie for most Oscar nominations in history with past Best Picture winners All About Eve and Titanic. When it showed up in Sound Editing, it was clear the film was tying the record. Costume Design sealed the deal. Other than that, there are essentially three big surprises this year: Amy Adams managed to get dumped from the Best Actress race as many thought she was one of the surefire nominees. Another documentary surprise ended up in Original Song, where “The Empty Chair” earned the shock slot. Meanwhile, down in Sound Editing, Michael Bay’s long ago debunked Benghazi drama pulled a somewhat surprising nomination (I had only read about it as a possibility last night, so it did catch me by surprise).

What made me happy was Kubo and the Two Strings picking up that Visual Effects nomination. I wasn’t expecting Passengers to do well, but it nabbed two nods. Jackie didn’t perform as well as it should have while Manchester by the Sea won and lost picking up Lucas Hedges in Supporting Actor, but missing out on Editing. Mel Gibson earned his “welcome back” nomination, which is disappointing, but not unexecpted. No film earned double digits this year other than La La Land. In the last two decades, it’s more common for no film to hit double digits or at least two. Since 1997, the end of the last common string of such occurrences, only two films have managed the feat: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring in 2001 and The Aviator in 2004. While both of those films failed to win Best Picture, all of the prior five instances (Titanic, The English Patient, Braveheart, Forrest Gump, and Schindler’s List) took the prize.

Here are the results of our predictions.

Of the films that received 100% of our predictions, these were the ones that failed to materialize – Amy Adams in Actress; Manchester by the Sea in Editing; Rogue One in Sound Editing; Arrival in Visual Effects; Inner Workings in Animated Short; and Nocturne in Black in Live-Action Short. That’s six unified failures out of seventy-six unified predictions or 92.2% success rate.

We had a handful of predictions that only one of our team made that was correct. Peter was the only one who stuck with Ruth Negga in Actress; Tripp was the only one to pick Hell or High Water in Editing; Wesley was the only one to pick Suicide Squad in Makeup; Peter was the only one to choose Sully in Sound Editing; Peter was also the only person to select Tanna in Foreign Language Film; Tripp picked Life, Animated in Documentary Feature when no one else did; and Wesley was the only one to predict Le Femme et le TGV in Live-Action Short Film.

Several perfect 5-for-5 (or 3-for3 in Makeup) were achieved by our predictors. Everyone got all nine films in Best Picture out of their list of ten with only Tripp and Thomas not putting Fences in the bottom position; Wesley predicted 8 perfectly: Picture, Animated Feature, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Makeup, and Documentary Short; Peter predicted 2 perfectly: Picture and Supporting Actress; Tripp predicted 4 perfectly: Picture, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and Cinematography; and Thomas also predicted 8 perfectly: Picture, Animated Feature, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, and Documentary Short.

Wesley Lovell – 99 Correct
Peter J. Patrick – 87 Correct
Tripp Burton – 91 Correct
Thomas La Tourrette – 99 Correct

And that’s how we did. Not terribly bad overall. Now the real work begins. We will have our first winner predictions posted very soon.

Nominations Tallies

(14) La La Land
(8) Arrival, Moonlight
(6) Hacksaw Ridge, Lion, Manchester by the Sea
(4) Fences, Hell or High Water
(3) Hidden Figures, Jackie
(2) Deepwater Horizon, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Florence Foster Jenkins, Kubo and the Two Strings, A Man Called Ove, Moana, Passengers, Rogue One
(1) Allied, Blind Vaysha, Borrowed Time, Captain Fantastic, Doctor Strange, Elle, Ennemis Intérieurs, Extremis, Fire at Sea, 4.1 Miles, Hail, Caesar!, I Am Not Your Negro, Jim: The James Foley Story, Joe’s Violin, The Jungle Book, Land of Mine, Le Femme et le TGV, Life, Animated, The Lobster, Loving, My Life as a Zucchini, Nocturnal Animals, O.J.: Made in America, Pear Cider and Cigarettes, Pearl, Piper, The Red Turtle, The Salesman, Silence, Silent Nights, Sing (Mindenki), Star Trek: Beyond, Suicide Squad, Sully, Tanna, 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi, 13th, Timecode, Toni Erdmann, 20th Century Women, Trolls, Watani: My Homeland, The White Helmets, Zootopia

The Nominations

BEST PICTURE

Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

BEST DIRECTING

Arrival – Denis Villeneuve
Hacksaw Ridge – Mel Gibon
La La Land – Damien Chazelle
Manchester by the Sea – Kenneth Lonergan
Moonlight – Barry Jenkins

BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington – Fences

BEST ACTRESS

Isabelle Huppert – Elle
Ruth Negga – Loving
Natalie Portman – Jackie
Emma Stone – La La Land
Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel – Lion
Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Viola Davis – Fences
Naomie Harris – Moonlight
Nicole Kidman – Lion
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Audition” – La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling” – Trolls
“City of Stars” – La La Land
“The Empty Chair” – Jim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go” – Moana

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers

BEST FILM EDITING

Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

A Man Called Ove
Star Trek: Beyond
Suicide Squad

BEST SOUND MIXING

Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

BEST SOUND EDITING

Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe’s Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

Ennemis Intérieurs
Le Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing (Mindenki)
Timecode