The time of the year when Hollywood studios dump the films least able to draw crowds. With all of the excitement over the Oscars drawing attention away from the box office, hits are seldom and most of the films are fairly awful. With a few exceptions (I’m looking at you Beauty and the Beast), this could be a rather mediocre season.

January 6-8, 2012

The Devil Inside

Premise: “In Italy, a woman becomes involved in a series of unauthorized exorcisms during her mission to discover what happened to her mother, who allegedly murdered three people during her own exorcism.”
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Expectations: Horror hasn’t been igniting the box office lately and we may be in the doldrum period, a time when horror bides its time waiting for a new film to pique interest in the see-sawing genre.
Oscar Prospects: None.

January 13-15, 2012

Beauty and the Beast 3D

Premise: “Belle, whose father is imprisoned by the Beast, offers herself instead and discovers her captor to be an enchanted prince.”
Box Office Prospects: $85 M
Expectations: With the success last year of The Lion King, I see little reason why this 3D re-release won’t do just as well, if not better, based on its significance.
Oscar Prospects: Ineligible.

Contraband

Premise: “The cutthroat underground world of international smuggling – full of desperate criminals and corrupt officials, high-stakes and big payoffs – where loyalty rarely exists and death is one wrong turn away.”
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Expectations: The trailer looks fairly milquetoast, but it’s the kind of movie that draws action buffs to the cinema, though it could just easily be a dud.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Joyful Noise

Premise: “Two choir members have differing opinions on how to win the national choir competition.”
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: I expect this to be a fairly moderate hit. With its simple excitement and cross-demographic appeal, a success on the level of Sister Act isn’t expected, but isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
Oscar Prospects: Dolly Parton’s original songs for the film could be remembered a year later, but the film itself won’t be.

January 20-22, 2012

Haywire

Premise: “A black ops super soldier seeks payback after she is betrayed and set up during a mission.”
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Expectations: The trailer looks pretty awesome and audiences could use a strong female assassin to follow. It could be a modest success.
Oscar Prospects: Steven Soderbergh’s films haven’t been popular with the Academy since he won Best Director, so I wouldn’t expect much.

Red Tails

Premise: “A crew of African American pilots in the Tuskegee training program, having faced segregation while kept mostly on the ground during World War II, are called into duty under the guidance of Col. A.J. Bullard.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Are audiences really looking for a film about the Tuskegee Airmen? There’s already been a successful small screen effort and positioning it against another obviously action-heavy film may be a bad move.
Oscar Prospects: You don’t release Oscar contenders in January…unless they already have big promise. This one does not.

Underworld Awakening

Premise: “When human forces discover the existence of the Vampire and Lycan clans, a war to eradicate both species commences. The vampire warrioress Selene leads the battle against humankind.”
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: The prior films did ok with the box office (enough to earn three sequels?), so this should perform on the same level regardless of whether it’s in 3D or not.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Coriolanus (Limited)

Premise: “A banished hero of Rome allies with a sworn enemy to take his revenge on the city.”
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Expectations: Technically a 2011 release, this film doesn’t quite have the chops for being a box office hit, but if it picks up a few Oscar nominations, it could do at least modestly well.
Oscar Prospects: Vanessa Redgrave is considered a possible nominee in Supporting Actress, but the film’s best chances come in Art Direction and Costume Design, possibly Makeup.

Pina (Limited)

Premise: “A tribute to choreographer Pina Bausch.”
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Expectations: Documentaries seldom do well at the box office and this dance piece is so niche it’s a nichey niche. Don’t expect much.
Oscar Prospects: Some consider it a strong contender for the Oscar nomination for Best Documentary Feature. I’m dubious about a performance piece with no true documentary style from getting selected.

Also Releasing this weekend: Carol Channing: Larger Than Life, a documentary about the legendary stage and film actress Carol Channing.

January 27-29, 2012

The Grey

Premise: “In Alaska, an oil drilling team struggle to survive after a plane crash strands them in the wild. Hunting the humans are a pack of wolves who see them as intruders.”
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Expectations: This may be the ultimate test for Liam Neeson’s box office capabilities. It’s not exactly his usual kind of thriller, but if it’s a success, we may have proof that Neeson is the biggest box office draw working today.
Oscar Prospects: Just like all of his previous thrillers, this one has no chance.

Man on a Ledge

Premise: “As a police psychologist works to talk down an ex-con who is threatening to jump from a Manhattan hotel rooftop, the biggest diamond heist ever committed is in motion…”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Has anyone actually heard of this film? A limit on the amount of press a film gets, especially one with as little notoriety as this one has, may doom its prospects.
Oscar Prospects: None.

One for the Money

Premise: “Unemployed and newly-divorced Stephanie Plum lands a job at her cousin’s bail-bond business, where her first assignment puts her on the trail of a wanted local cop from her romantic past.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: The title says it all. This is a paycheck film that will cost its producers greatly. I don’t think it’s going to be much of a success at all.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Declaration of War (Limited)

Premise: “A young couple wrestle with their child’s cancer diagnosis.”
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Expectations: I would be repeating myself if I said foreign films don’t often do well at the box office, but I’d still be right about it.
Oscar Prospects: It’s still the perfect film for Oscar voters’ attention, the film may not be able to overcome the Iranian submission.