The best way to characterize this Summer was that I severely over-estimated the performances of nearly every film…either that or audiences just didn’t turn out where I thought they would. Aside from a few near-on predictions, most of the films weren’t. Although not all films have left theaters yet, we can probably tell from current estimates how close I’m going to end up being on some of them. And, considering this was my first time with such an expansive seasonal preview, I really don’t think I did as bad as I could have. I will definitely try to do better when I preview the upcoming Awards Season (coming soon).

Here’s a week-by-week breakdown of all the films I cataloged in my first article along with my thoughts on the film’s box office performance. The only week where the top new release wasn’t one of the films I previewed was the week of Vampires Suck which took just about everyone by surprise. Next time, I may do a month-by-month follow-up on the preview article (coming soon) I write.

May 7-9

Iron Man 2

Box Office Prospects: $350 M
Box Office Results: $312 M
Thoughts: [Success] I was almost exactly right on this one. While it did underperform, it built easily on the original’s solid start.

Babies

Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Results: $7 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Not only did I not want to see the film, but apparently no one else did either.

Casino Jack and the United States of Money

Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Results: $0.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Documentaries don’t do well at the box office, so my estimate was severely over.

Mother and Child

Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Box Office Results: $1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] This was going to be Annette Bening’s best film to pin her Oscar hopes on. No wonder it was pushed back a year.

May 14-16

Robin Hood

Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Box Office Results: $105 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Although not a flop, it wasn’t the Gladiator numbers I expected.

Just Wright

Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Box Office Results: $21 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Queen Latifah proves she is no box office magnet and outside of Tyler Perry, urban features don’t perform that well.

Letters to Juliet

Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Results: $53 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] I got this one nearly right, I’d say close enough to brag about as a valid prediction.

May 21-23

Shrek Forever After

Box Office Prospects: $350 M
Box Office Results: $238 M
Thoughts: [Success] I guess I should have considered how burned people were after the third film. Still, the fourth film did pretty well all things considered.

MacGruber

Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Results: $8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Saturday Night Live continues its streak of sub-par box office performances.

Holy Rollers

Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Box Office Results: $0.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] No significant advertising campaign likely killed this film, but the niche premise probably didn’t help much either.

May 28-30

Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time

Box Office Prospects: $300 M
Box Office Results: $90 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] With Jake Gyllenhaal in the lead, a snazzy visual style, I’m rather surprised this didn’t do so much better. Gyllenhaal just doesn’t seem to have the box office chops to downplay a dullard script.

Sex and the City 2

Box Office Prospects: $250 M
Box Office Results: $95 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Transporting the Sex out of the City probably didn’t help matters much, but it did highlight just how integral the setting is to a film like this.

Survival of the Dead

Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Box Office Results: $0.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] I’m rather surprised this one didn’t do better. Without a significant roll out and a public seemingly blind to zombie films, I guess it shouldn’t be that surprising.

Micmacs

Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Box Office Results: $1.1 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Amélie this is not. But, foreign language films always have a hard time performing at the U.S. box office without significant word of mouth or a heavy Oscar push.

June 4-6

Get Him to the Greek

Box Office Prospects: $105 M
Box Office Results: $60 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Not too bad a performance for two actors who didn’t really have any box office clout.

Killers

Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Box Office Results: $47 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] I was sure Heigl and Kutcher wouldn’t be much of draws, but I did expect a little more robust business. I guess you can’t overcome a weak screenplay even in this age of Michael Bay films.

Marmaduke

Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Results: $33 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] So expanding a single-cell comic into a big screen event didn’t work so well? Color me surprised.

Splice

Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Results: $17 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Sci-Fi/Horror isn’t as popular as gross out horror, I guess and the critic notices may not have helped much either…they were relatively positive.

Ondine

Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Results: $0.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Colin Farrell fits well in the indie world, but not at the box office.

June 11-13

The A-Team

Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Box Office Results: $77 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Although I expected a significant performance, doing so little business is quite a bit surprising…but not really so much when you consider just how bad the film was.

The Karate Kid

Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Box Office Results: $175 M
Thoughts: [Success] Who would have known that a movie like Kung Fu Kid…I mean, Karate Kid, would have done so well. I guess the mixture of martial arts fans, family film fans and urban movie goers propelled it to heights no one expected. It’s also one of only a handful of films I underestimated.

Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work

Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Results: $2.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Surprisingly strong performance for a documentary, especially when most of the ones that came before it did sub-$1M.

June 18-20

Toy Story 3

Box Office Prospects: $400 M
Box Office Results: $405 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] While it hasn’t quite finished its run, don’t expect much more to be put on it. And getting so close does make me feel good when surrounded by such dramatic differences.

Jonah Hex

Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Results: $10 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] No big names and a strange premise. Maybe the wound of Wild Wild West is still bothersome?

Cyrus

Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Results: $7 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Just goes to show that without a wide release with names like John C. Reilly attached, and a more humorous advertising campaign, box office failure is to be expected.

I Am Love

Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Results: $4.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] I must admit, looking back at this prediction now, I can’t believe I ranked it so high. Yet, it did perform adequately for the genre and for the fact that it was in a foreign language.

June 25-27

Grown Ups

Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Results: $159 M
Thoughts: [Success] Never underestimate the power of Adam Sandler, but also don’t overestimate it.

Knight and Day

Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Box Office Results: $76 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Not a bad performance for a film a lot of critics trashed. Yet, for Cruise, this must be quite a disappointment.

July 2-4

Twilight Saga: Eclipse

Box Office Prospects: $375 M
Box Office Results: $298 M
Thoughts: [Success] I guess the Twihards have less spending power than we thought. It’s still a sizable number, but not quite to the heights expected.

The Last Airbender

Box Office Prospects: $300 M
Box Office Results: $130 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] I guess I should have expected such a disappointment, not only in terms of box office numbers, but also in quality. Yet, it performed well enough to have made most of its money back.

Twelve

Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Results: $0.2 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] What should have appealed to young adults who enjoy young rich people self-implode, didn’t even come remotely close. Poor marketing is probably the biggest fault.

July 9-11

Despicable Me

Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Box Office Results: $236 M
Thoughts: [Success] Not only was it a modest hit, it outperformed my expectations. And it hasn’t even closed yet, so it’s total might get as high as $250 M.

Predators

Box Office Prospects: $125 M
Box Office Results: $51 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] I guess the Predator franchise isn’t as powerful as I expected.

The Kids Are All Right

Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Results: $19 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Although $19 M isn’t what I predicted, it’s still doing quite well for an indie with no wide release.

July 16-18

Inception

Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Box Office Results: $271 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] Not only did it out perform my expectations, it is quickly shaping up to be one of the bigger hits of the year. It’s still making money, so it could top out close to $300 M

The Sorcerer’s Apprentice

Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Box Office Results: $61 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] I didn’t have a lot of faith in this film performing, but a lot of people did, so it has to be seen as somewhat of a failure, though not much of one from what I expected.

July 23-25

Dinner for Schmucks

Box Office Prospects: $ 200 M
Box Office Results: $69 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Steve Carell is not box office gold. Despite decent response from critics, the film failed to ignite with audiences and seriously underperformed.

Salt

Box Office Prospects: $175 M
Box Office Results: $113 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] While not the success I thought it would be, it still made a sizable amount. Angelina Jolie can still draw an audience, but not as much of one as most would expect.

Ramona and Beezus

Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Results: $24 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Unless Miley Cyrus makes an appearance on the big screen, young female audiences aren’t turning out for their targeted material.

July 30-August 1

I Love You Phillip Morris

Box Office Prospects: $95 M
Box Office Results: Pushed Back
Thoughts: Originally, the film was pushed back to 2011, but has re-emerged as a 2010 film.

Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore

Box Office Prospects: $ 75 M
Box Office Results: $41 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Not too bad for a sequel to a film released nearly a decade ago. Kid-friendly films still seem to do sufficient business.

Beastly

Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Results: Pushed Back
Thoughts: This film was pushed back to 2011.

Get Low

Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Results: $3 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] No one of any major import (Bill Murray hasn’t been a draw for many years) aren’t good for business and even with decent notices from critics, the film still managed to fail to catch on.

Charlie St. Cloud

Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Results: $30 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] I can’t say I’m surprised that predictable tripe would not catch on very well, but Efron in his non-Disney roles just isn’t a box office magnet. It’s still in theaters, so it may finish close to my prediction, but definitely not much higher than where it is now.

August 6-8

The Other Guys

Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Box Office Results: $99 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] It’s still in theaters and still making money, so my prediction seems to be pretty spot on. This must be nice for Will Farrell after his recent string of flops.

Step Up 3-D

Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Box Office Results: $39 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] 3D did not make the film soar to new heights. Matter of fact, considering the performance of the other films in the series, this must be a bit of a disappointment. It still has a couple of weeks left to perform, but I doubt it will get to its non-3D efllows’ total.

Mao’s Last Dancer

Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Box Office Results: $1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Small, indie film with little distribution results in minimal box office.

August 13-15

Scott Pilgrim vs. The World

Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Results: $26 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] If you’re the makers of Scott Pilgrim hoping to tap into the geek pop culture zeitgeist, you have to be severely saddened by this result. What should have been a slam dunk hit was a minor flop.

The Expendables

Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Box Office Results: $82 M
Thoughts: [Success] We aren’t at the end of the film’s run yet, so it’s about to sail past my expectations, so I guess we’ve got a bigger hit than expected.

Eat Pray Love

Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Box Office Results: $61 M
Thoughts: [Success] Never underestimate the power of Julia Roberts. She’s closing in on my prediction and will likely push past it, but who knows for sure by how much. Still, less than $100 M isn’t exactly a Roberts-is-back kind of success.

Tales from Earthsea

Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Results: $0.05 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Hayao Miyzaki his son is not. Goro’s film underperformed most of his father’s weakest entries.

August 20-22

The Switch

Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Box Office Results: $16 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Although it’s only been out for two weeks now, I don’t see this one catching up to my prediction.

Nanny McPhee Returns

Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Results: $17 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Four years later, the film isn’t playing nearly as well as its predecessor. While it’s still in theaters, I don’t think it will ultimate pass the originals’ $47 M.

Takers

Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Box Office Results: $22 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The film was pushed back one week, so it’s only had one week in release, so it should do better than my estimate, but not by too much, even with a #1 placement.

Lottery Ticket

Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Results: $17 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Solid enough for an urban comedy, but it isn’t likely to finish far from my prediction at this point.

August 27-29

Piranha 3-D

Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Results: $18 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] A solid, if not terrific opening, the film is likely to do modest horror-typical business, but little more.

Going the Distance

Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Results: Pushed Back
Thoughts: This one was pushed back into September, so this prediction isn’t likely to be played out until my next article (coming soon).

Happythankyoumoreplease

Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Results: Pushed Back
Thoughts: IMDb says it’s been released, but the box office numbers aren’t available. My guess is it’s showing specialty houses that don’t report numbers or just isn’t playing for money.

Centurion

Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Results: $0.04 M
Thoughts: [Flop] I guess you can’t expect much from a small indie epic. Still, its anemic opening isn’t very good at all.

The Last Exorcism

Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Box Office Results: $21 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] In one weekend, it breezed past my estimates. Had I made this prediction in the last month instead of in May, perhaps I might have given it a better chance.