2019 Spring Season Preview Wrap-Up: January

Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

January 4, 2019

Escape Room

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. This inventive horror film should do quite well with little competition.”
Box Office Results: $57 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Expectations are never high for an early-year horror release, but this film performed well considering expectations.

January 11, 2019

A Dog’s Way Home

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: A surprising new trend in cinema is the animal-headed stories, especially those with internal pet monologues. While there was a period in the 1970s and 1980s where such films also did somewhat well, it seems more frequent now with no fewer than three this year (that I’ve heard of so far). So, a weak performance like this might harm the subgenre rebirth.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Reminiscent of A Dog’s Purpose, this film should tickle the emotions of any dog lover, which could help its box office take.”
Box Office Results: $42 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Still None.

Replicas

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Keanu Reeves doesn’t have the best box office track record, but this should do decently for him.”
Box Office Results: $4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] While John Wick has been a boost for Keanu Reeves’ career, this film proved that he’s not the primary reason for that series’ success, at least not in terms of drawing people to the box office.

The Upside

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Kevin Hart is on a role and this film opposite Bryan Cranston should have a solid opportunity with audiences.”
Box Office Results: $108.3 M
Thoughts: [Success] This film was sure to be a minor hit due to Kevin Hart’s presence. His success at the box office is fairly regular. This performed above my expectations, but is a bit low for Hart’s typical takes.

January 18, 2019

Glass

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Based on the reception of the now-second film in the Unbreakable trilogy, this one should do quite well at the box office.”
Box Office Results: $111 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Nothing can save M. Night Shyamalan from himself. When his ego gets inflated, his product output tends to suffer and his recent rebirth is showing just how much that can now be considered a truism.

January 25, 2019

The Kid Who Would Be King

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. There aren’t a lot of people clamoring for a film like this one and that may depress attendance for this kid-friendly action adventure.”
Box Office Results: $16.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Studios may have thought this British kids adventure would be a big hit, but it has proven to be anything but.

Serenity

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. A lot of people keep trying to make a Matthew McConaughey renaissance happen and while he’s done much better since his Oscar win for Dallas Buyers Club, his box office successes have been others’ wins rather than his. I wouldn’t expect too much from this.”
Box Office Results: $8.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Matthew McConaughey and Anne Hathaway are not and should never have been considered box office draws. While both are affable big screen presences, their biggest successes have always been with other bigger names involved.

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