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The Rundown 2011: Actress

For our thirteenth Rundown article, the race for first or third should be the talk of the night. After the jump, you'll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Actress as well as general commentary about the race. Next week, we'll start off on Monday with a category that will tell us more about Best Picture than any other.

Best Actress

Winner Predictions

  • Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs
  • Viola Davis - The Help (New)(R) (New)(R) (New)(R)
  • Rooney Mara - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
  • Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn

Runner-Up Predictions

  • Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady (R) (R) (R)

(color and symbol key at bottom of page)

Wesley Lovell: It still seems like Viola Davis has the edge at the Oscars. After her SAG win, it would be rather shocking if Davis were to lose the award, but as the Golden Globes prove, Meryl Streep isn't a force to be taken lightly. Her previous few nominations have been fairly lightweight, always leading to speculation she'll finally win her third Oscar, but ultimately disappointing her many fans. I haven't seen her as a credible threat until now. Sure, you could take the BAFTA win as a case of hometown character dowing well, but she also picked up the Golden Globe over Viola Davis and although Thatcher may be more familiar to foreign voters, Davis needed the Globe win to cement her place in the race. Streep already has SAG awards in the recent, so they didn't feel the need to give her another. Michelle Williams used to be in the race, but has faded for now. This is a knock-down drag-out betwen Streep and Davis with Davis having the slight edge, but Streep nipping at her heels.

Peter J. Patrick: Meryl Streep went into the race the presumptive favorite for The Iron Lady, but the film has not done well with audiences. Most feel her performance and makeup were the only good things about the film. Viola Davis, on the other hand, has stedaily risen in popularlaity during awards season and seems poised to take home the Oscar for her strong turn in a more popular film. No one else seems to be in the race at this point.

Tripp Burton: The press wants to turn this into a heated race, but that race is in Best Actor, not here. Streep managed to win the Globe and the BAFTA, but her Margaret Thatcher biopic was right up their foreign alley. Davis wasn't really competing in those races, but come to the American-centric Oscars and the award is hers to lose. The other three nominees are merely ballot-filler.

KEY:

Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists

Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton
(New) = New Prediction
(O) = Original, Post-Nomination Prediction
(R) = Rundown Series Prediction
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