The Rundown 2013: Picture

Posted

February 28, 2014

Wesley Lovell

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For our sixteenth and final Rundown article, we cover the big one. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Picture as well as general commentary about the race.

Best Picture

Winner Predictions

12 Years a Slave (WL O) (PP O)
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity (TB R) [New]
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street

Runner-Up Predictions

12 Years a Slave (TB R) [New]
Gravity (WL O) (PP O)

(color and symbol key at bottom of page)

Wesley Lovell: As I’ve mentioned before, there’s an old adage: “Don’t Bet the Split.” This means that the Academy has so frequently given Best Picture and Best Director to the same film that even when splits are widely predicted, they rarely happen. That pairs with the tradition of the Directors Guild of America to line up with the Oscar for Best Director (and in tandem Best Picture) more often than any other precursor in the history of precursors. That makes Alfonso Cuaron the key contender for Best Director. Which leaves us with a problem. 12 Years a Slave has long been predicted as the potential winner and Cuaron has been listed as the director with the most potential for the director prize. So, DGA says go Cuaron. “Don’t Bet the Split” would then suggest to predict Gravity for Best Picture. Then BAFTA split the awards, confirming the prevailing wisdom. Yet, those of us who’ve been at this game for awhile, know that it seems completely out of the ordinary. So, what to do? You have to go with your gut. While Gravity is a terrific film, it isn’t really about anything. It’s about survival, but if you want a survival film, 12 Years a Slave is the ultimate: living through slavery in the Antebellum South. So, while it goes against years of observation, I’m predicting the split.
Peter J. Patrick: 12 Years a Slave is in the tradition of great literary adaptations, social conscience and message films that typically win Best Picture over more popular entertainments of the day. Its a more likely winner than the popular Gravity would seem to be, but either is possible in a very close race.
Tripp Burton: We really won’t have a good idea of how this race is shaping until the envelope is opened, but I am going to be traditional and say that if Gravity wins Best Director, it’s winning Best Picture too. Gravity is a blockbuster that also managed to be a critical favorite, and that combination should lead it to the top prize here.

KEY:

Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists

Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton

(New) = New Prediction
(O) = Original, Post-Nomination Prediction
(R) = Rundown Series Prediction

Comments

2 responses to “The Rundown 2013: Picture”

Hollywood Z

February 28, 2014

I’m beginning to come around to the notion of a split also. Here’s what I’m expecting:

Phase 1: Costume Design – If 12 Years a Slave wins here, it is proof that it still has a strong support. If American Hustle or The Great Gatsby wins, then it is signs of wavering support.

Phase 2: Film Editing – If it wins Costume Design, then goes on to win Film Editing, then Best Picture is assured. Even if it doesn’t win here (Gravity and Captain Phillips would be the most likely ones to win here if it doesn’t), 12 Years a Slave still has a really good chance to win, but don’t be surprised if Gravity does trounce it.

So, yeah, I’m still expecting 12 Years a Slave to win (though I would like to see Steve McQueen win because it would be a monumental moment to see the first African American director win an Oscar along with his picture).

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1. Wesley Lovell
  
  February 28, 2014
  
  I hate to disappoint, but between the time the deadline for this article passed and I wrote my final analysis, my prediction switched. I still hope for a 12 Years victory, but sadly, another year may go by where a film with a solo black lead doesn’t win Best Picture.
  
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