Saturday and Sunday, two of the major Oscar precursors present their awards. The DGA will announce first on Saturday at a gala dinner that we’ll get snippets from, but won’t be able to see. If you see anyone with a giant medallion plaque in the media, be wary. The first four silver ones will be given to the nominees. It’s the final gold one that will be handed out to the winner.

Then, on Sunday, the SAG Awards will be presented live on TNT. Yes, the DGA winner is 95% likely to win the Oscar, but the SAG Awards are slowly building a reputation as an influential precursor. The winners here (outside of Best Cast) will be seen as frontrunner going into the Oscars. Here are our takes (and predictions) on the various races from each guild announcing over the weekend.

DIRECTORS GUILD OF AMERICA (DGA) AWARDS

Best Director

Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris
David Fincher – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist (Wesley / Peter / Tripp)
Alexander Payne – The Descendants
Martin Scorsese – Hugo (RU:Wesley / RU:Peter / RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Last year, the DGA proved that it isn’t necessarily interested in the best direction, so it’s hard to really say what they’ll do here. They’ve never exactly been fanboyish (except when it comes to Spielberg), so picking a veteran isn’t always the best option. This was also the group that gave first-time director Rob Marshall their award for Chicago even though he didn’t repeat at the Oscars. All things considered, I would be very surprised if someone other than Hazanavicius or Scorsese won this award. Scorsese’s won several awards leading up to this point, so he could win; but after the plethora of prizes to David Fincher last year, but the DGA giving its trophy to neophyte Tom Hooper because he directed the year’s Best Picture winner (not exactly, but there’s little other reason for him to have won). This means that I think Michel Hazanavicius will be the big winner. The Artist is very likely to win Best Picture at the Oscars and the Picture and Director prizes most often go to the same films. And since the DGA has the best record at predicting Best Director, I think this one is Hazanvicius’ to lose.

Peter J. Patrick: Scorsese has the name, but Hazanavicius has the momentum. It’s betwwen these two.

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD (SAG) AWARDS

Best Cast

The Artist (Peter / RU:Tripp)
Bridesmaids (RU:Wesley)
The Descedants
The Help (Wesley / RU:Peter / Tripp)
Midnight in Paris

Wesley Lovell: SAG voters often mistake the biggest ensemble for the best ensemble. They have given a number of dubious prizes in the past and most often it’s because they are honoring the biggest cast on the list. With twelve names to the nearest competitor’s nine, there’s little doubt in my mind that The Help will take this prize. Add this to the fact that it’s a very diverse cast and you’ve got a surefire formula for success. If any of these other casts can top The Help, not only will it be a coup, but it will be the talk of the night. And if The Artist takes it, then the juggernaut train will be heading to the Oscars.

Best Actor

Demian Bichir – A Better Life
George Clooney – The Descendants (Wesley / RU:Peter / RU:Tripp)
Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin – The Artist (Peter)
Brad Pitt – Moneyball (RU:Wesley / Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: None of these actors have won SAG awards before and in the cases of Clooney, DiCaprio and Pitt, that means one of the veterans is bound to get an award bestowed on them. And of the three, Clooney is the most popular choice and has a few more years on both of is veteran co-nominees. I still think it’s possible that Brad Pitt could also triumph. It’s not often that a male-centric film gets many nominations and Moneyball might be just the right film to appeal to an under-represented demographic.

Best Actress

Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis – The Help (Wesley / RU:Peter)
Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady (Peter / RU:Tripp)
Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn (RU:Wesley / Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: As much as I want to say that Michelle Williams will win this prize for playing one of the most recognizable faces in Hollywood history, being part of the Best Cast won’t hurt Viola Davis’ chances. Of course, when she was nominated for Doubt, we were all certain that her status as a prominent acting veteran would propel her to a win, but it didn’t. This could be recompense for the loss, but I could also see them giving it to either her Doubt co-star Meryl Streep or to the aforementioned Williams. If Weinstein has clout with the SAG voters, it’s hard to assess, but a last-minute win by Williams could propel her into the lead. Of course, it helps to have your film seen by a wide proportion of the Academy and since The Help is out on DVD and both The Iron Lady and My Week with Marilyn are both still in limited release, their vote receipts will be muted.

Best Supporting Actor

Kenneth Branagh – My Week with Marilyn (RU:Wesley)
Armie Hammer – J. Edgar
Jonah Hill – Moneyball
Nick Nolte – Warrior (Peter / RU:Tripp)
Christopher Plummer – Beginners (Wesley / RU:Peter / Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: There are three veterans in this category. The big question is which to choose. My guess is SAG voters will go for the biggest legend and that’s Plummer whose varied career outstrips both Kenneth Branagh and Nick Nolte by several years. And since the guild loves to honor aging thespians (see Ruby Dee’s win four years ago), I think this is Plummer’s award. Branagh and Nolte are in a fairly even race to win, but if they’ve seen Williams’ performance, then Branagh could get an award in tandem due to wide viewership. Of course, Nolte could be given a “we forgive you” award, but his film just doesn’t have the cachet at the moment.

Best Supporting Actress

Berenice Bejo – The Artist
Jessica Chastain – The Help (Peter)
Melissa McCarthy – Bridesmaids (RU:Wesley / RU:Tripp)
Janet McTeer – Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer – The Help (Wesley / RU:Peter / Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Another instance of Best Cast love likely to filter down to the other acting categories. Octavia Spencer’s been winning plenty of prizes this season and especially where it counts. On top of this, her major competition is coming from her co-star who had a smashing debut year and Melissa McCarthy whose been having a wonderful year herself after her big Emmy win earlier this year. It’s still possible to go another way, but I think it will end up in Spencer’s humble hands.

Best Stunt Cast

The Adjustment Bureau
Cowboys & Aliens (RU:Peter)
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 (Wesley / Peter / RU:Tripp)
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
X-Men: First Class (RU:Wesley / Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: There is no hard or fast rule here. The category hasn’t been around very long and they never broadcast the winners or even the nominations, so it’s hard to even know what they are thinking about this. But of this group, the Harry Potter stunt cast should be the largest of these, but the SAG website doesn’t even list the ensemble members’ names. That seems a bit rude to me, but that’s not what we’re discussing. My guess is that Potter will be triumphant simply in recognition of the vaunted franchise’s run, but any of the others could easily win.