This weekend, two of the most prominent guilds will be announcing their awards. The Producers Guild of America will be hosting a private ceremony Saturday evening to give out its tokens. The Screen Actors Guild will broadcast its annual awards live on Sunday evening. We’ll start things off with the Producers Guild of America, which has a strong history of Oscar predicting with a few unsuccessful selections to go along with it. Here are our predictions and thoughts on those awards.

PRODUCERS GUILD OF AMERICA (PGA) AWARDS

Best Picture

Argo (Peter / RU:Wesley / RU:Tripp)
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables (RU:Peter)
Life of Pi
Lincoln (Wesley / Tripp)
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Wesley Lovell: The first award this season that may give us a strong indication of where Oscar will go. If Lincoln wins, we will know that the film has solid support in the industry and may go in strong to the Oscars. If any other film wins, then the horse race continues. Argo could very well take the prize, and if it does, we’ll see a groundswell of support for the notion that it could be the first film since 1989’s Driving Miss Daisy to win the Oscar without a corresponding Best Director nomination. If the film wins both guild prizes this weekend, I might buy into that notion. If it doesn’t win either, look somewhere else for the victor. I lean towards Lincoln, but a left-field choice could also emerge with something like Silver Linings Playbook, which would give it a big lift towrads an Oscar win.
Tripp Burton: If Lincoln is really the front-runner for Best Picture at the Oscars, it really needs to start winning something along the path to the Oscars. This seems like a likely place to start. Lincoln is a sprawling historical piece that is liked pretty much across the board, it was a much bigger box office hit than anyone thought it would be and has entered the cultural zeitgeist more than any other film on this list (as was proved when it was brought up over and over again last weekend during inauguration coverage). Argo, fresh from its dual televised awards a few weekends ago, could also upset here in the way that Little Miss Sunshine did in 2006.

Best Animated Feature

Brave (Tripp / RU:Wesley)
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman (RU:Peter)
Rise of the Guardians
Wreck-It Ralph (Wesley / Peter; RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Twice since the PGA has given out the award have they not correctly predicted the eventual winner. Those two years were distinctive in that there was no definitive film seeking out the victory. In 2006, the race between Cars and Happy Feet resulted in the PGA choosing Pixar and the Academy going with penguins. Last year, the PGA went with the motion-capture animation of The Aventures of Tintin. The Academy didn’t even nominate it. Both years, the competition was strong between multiple films. This year the same thing persist. Pixar’s entry isn’t the juggernaut past efforts have been, but the other films aren’t exactly the kinds of hits the PGA likes to recognize. I am leaning towards Wreck-It Ralph since, other than Brave, it’s the only major blockbuster on the list. I think Brave will falter despite its Golden Globe victory, but it could win simply by being a reliable box office film from the reliable Pixar.
Tripp Burton: Pixar has won 5 of the 7 awards since this started being given out, so betting against Brave seems futile. If anything can upset it, it is probably Wreck-It Ralph.

Best Documentary

The Gatekeepers (RU:Wesley / RU:Peter)
The Island President
The Other Dream Team (RU:Tripp)
A People Uncounted
Searching for Sugar Man (Wesley / Peter / Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Only two victories could forecast the Oscars and they just so happen to be the two films I think have the best chance at winning here. Searching for Sugar Man has more precursors in its favor, but The Gatekeepers fits better into the Academy’s traditional mold of selectable pictures. The other three films just don’t seem to be the kinds of movies the PGA will recognize, so I’ll lean towards the more critically praised Searching for Sugar Man for lack of a better choice.
Tripp Burton: Searching for Sugar Man is the documentary of the year, at least awards wise, and should pick up this one too.

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD (SAG) AWARDS

The Screen Actors Guild is a very old guild, but one of the relative neophytes among awards-giving bodies. Still, they have slowly emerged as one of the key Oscar prognosticators. The largest industry guild in existence should provide some insight into this year’s Oscar races in many top categories. Here’s what we see as the key talking points and predictions of this year’s SAG awards.

Best Cast

Argo (Wesley / Peter / Tripp)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Les Misérables (RU:Wesley / RU:Peter)
Lincoln (RU:Tripp)
Silver Linings Playbook

Wesley Lovell: History favors the largest cast, giving Argo a surprising lead. With 13 names on its list to Les Misérables‘ twelve, Argo has to be considered a favorite. But watch out for Les Mis. Most frequently the actual number matters, but a difference of one might not mean much, shifting the prize to Les Mis which may also pick up two others awards that night. If Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook wins, look for that film to go into the Oscar race stronger than previously expected (especially since Lincoln has only 7 members of its massive cast on the ballot, which could confuse some voters who think they’re recogizing a much larger ensemble; and Silver has only 6 names).
Tripp Burton: This is a hard category for me to predict overall. I think that both Les Misérables and Silver Linings Playbook are just as likely to win here, but I’m giving the edge to Argo, which seems to be Hollywood’s favorite this year. For the past 4 years, the film with the largest nominated ensemble has won this award. This would seem to hurt Lincoln, which despite its large cast only has a nominated ensemble of 7. This is anyone’s game, though, and should make the race to the Academy Awards even more interesting.

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln (Peter / Tripp / RU:Wesley)
John Hawkes – The Sessions
Hugh Jackman – Les Misérables (Wesley / RU:Peter)
Denzel Washington – Flight (RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: I’m torn here. SAG has proven that they love Daniel Day-Lewis, having given him the prize twice before. That fact alone makes me wonder if they’ll give him a third prize, especially when a popular choice like Hugh Jackman’s on the list. Denzel Washington could also prevail and with no Joaquin Phoenix to honor, it might not have a big forecasting capability. Yet, if Jackman wins, he must enter the race as a strong contender. If SAG can’t bring itself to give Day-Lewis a third trophy for a would-be iconic performance, then will the Academy who is much more stringent on his record-setting tendencies.
Tripp Burton: At this point, it is pretty futile to vote against the steamroller that is Daniel Day Lewis, but Denzel Washington is a popular actor, a great movie star and has never won a SAG award. He is a strong runner-up, and a good chance to upset things here.

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty (Peter / RU:Wesley / RU:Tripp)
Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook (Wesley / Tripp / RU:Peter)
Helen Mirren – Hitchcock
Naomi Watts – The Impossible

Wesley Lovell: The battle between Chastain and Lawrence will finally be decided. With the Broadcast Critics and the Golden Globes splitting their prizes between the two actresses, we’ll finally see who might have the support needed to carry the Oscar into the end zone. If either of these ladies wins, they will gain momentum towards the Oscar win. If neither do and a surprise emerges from any of the three other women, we won’t know anything going into Oscar night. I give Lawrence the lead simply because the Screen Actors Guild is a fairly broad, populist group and Lawrence has been in more widely-seen movies than Chastain even if Chastain’s earlier work is frequently more respected.
Tripp Burton: The battle between the two new starlets continues here at SAG, where I am guessing that the funnier of the two nominees wins here. Silver Linings Playbook has been out longer, will play better on screeners to those who haven’t gotten Zero Dark Thirty at their local cineplex yet, and is picking up steam where Zero Dark Thirty is losing it.

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin – Argo (RU:Tripp / RU:Peter)
Javier Bardem – Skyfall
Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook (Wesley)
Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln (Peter / Tripp / RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: He’s never been nominated for the SAG award before, which gives Robert De Niro an edge. This is the same group that has given a number of prizes to shocking winners simply because they’ve never previously had the opportunity. Think Ruby Dee, Julie Christie, Christopher Walken, Albert Finney, Robert Duvall, Lauren Bacall and Jodie Foster. None of these winners went on to Oscar and may have won simply because they were known. De Niro seems to fit this type of win quite well. Of course, so does Tommy Lee Jones, who won his Oscar just prior to SAG’s inception. If Jones or Hoffman win, their chances for Oscar increase. If Arkin or Bardem wins, then I’ll be stymied. If De Niro wins, it probably won’t mean much for Oscar except that predicting the eventual winner will be a challenge.
Tripp Burton: Without Globes winner Christoph Waltz here, this category is an interesting, open range. Tommy Lee Jones is the presumed leader of this race, but I wonder whether people really don’t love him as much as they think they are supposed to. Alan Arkin’s wise-cracking producer could play well to this crowd, and could upset Jones here.

Best Supporting Actress

Sally Field – Lincoln (RU:Wesley / RU:Tripp / RU:Peter)
Anne Hathaway – Les Misérables (Peter / Wesley / Tripp)
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Nicole Kidman – The Paperboy
Maggie Smith – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Wesley Lovell: This is where the night could get interesting. Anne Hathaway enters the evening as the only prohibitive favorite. She’s a popular actress in a somewhat popular film with a large ensemble. The problem is, the Never-Been-Here-Before factor favors an actress like Sally Field. Field’s double Oscar wins came well over a decade prior to SAG and this might be an opportunity to honor a legend. If Field wins, it may not mean much for Oscar, but it will give those want to declare that Hathaway has peaked a talking point. However, if Hathaway wins as I think she will, any other prediction for the Oscars would be wishful thinking.
Tripp Burton: Anne Hathaway is also on a steamroller to the Oscars, and I don’t see her losing the more popular vote here.

Best Stunt Cast

The Amazing Spider-Man
The Bourne Legacy (RU:Tripp)
The Dark Knight Rises (RU:Wesley)
Les Misérables (Peter)
Skyfall (Wesley / Tripp / RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: This award has nothing to do with Oscar and seldom has to do with the higher quality film. How Les Misérables got on the list, I don’t know, but that could mean it has a strong chance of winning the main award. It won’t win this one, however. This is typically award that goes to a critically approved action film. Considering that the prior to winners here were Inception and Star Trek, the two most logical extensions would be The Dark Knight Rises and Skyfall. The connection for Dark Knight is Christopher Nolan, but with the huge popularity of Skyfall, I could very much see the tradition of James Bond earning that cast the prize.
Tripp Burton: Skyfall seems to me the most impressive here, and is the most liked of these films, so it will probably win here.