2012 Precursor Predictions: Spirit Awards

The day before the Oscars, two events occur. One is the Razzies. The other is the more significant Spirit Awards. They are always the final precursor to announce, though they have very little bearing on the Oscars whatsoever.

SPIRIT AWARDS

Best Feature

Beasts of the Southern Wild (RU:Wesley / RU:Tripp)
Bernie
Keep the Lights On
Moonrise Kingdom (RU:Peter)
Silver Linings Playbook (Wesley / Peter / Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: This group has a long history of voting for the Oscar nominees on the list. While a couple of instances exist where such was not the case, it’s a rare occurrence. In recent years, more Oscar nominees have been on the list than ever before, making it a bit of a challenge at times to choose. And this category is more difficult for two reasons. Silver Linings Playbook is the film with the best chance at taking Best Picture at the Oscars, but Beasts of the Southern Wild is a far more typical independent film. I could see them giving Beasts the win, but with so many other nominations for Playbook, I’m leaning in its direction.

Best First Feature

Fill the Void
Gimme the Loot
The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Wesley / Peter / Tripp)
Safety Not Guaranteed (RU:Wesley / RU:Peter / RU:Tripp)
Sound of My Voice

Wesley Lovell: No Oscar nominees in the bunch, but Perks seems to have gotten the most notice and the best reviews as well as generating quite a few non-Spirit award nominations. I don’t know if Safety Not Guaranteed is well liked enough to beat it out, but it’s currently my pick for runner-up, though any of the others could easily triumph.

John Cassavetes Award

Breakfast with Curtis
Middle of Nowhere (Wesley / Peter / RU:Tripp)
Mosquita y Mari
Starlet (RU:Wesley / RU:Peter)
The Color Wheel (Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Middle of Nowhere is the only film on this list that has picked up more nominations elsewhere, meaning it’s fairly well liked. Starlet also has another nomination, so it could be in the hunt as well as any of the other films.

Best Director

Wes Anderson – Moonrise Kingdom (RU:Peter)
Julia Loktev – The Loneliest Planet
David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook (Wesley / Peter / RU:Tripp)
Ira Sachs – Keep the Lights On
Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild (Tripp / RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: The exact same case I made in Best Picture applies here as the same films’ directors are competing here with an edge going to Weinstein-backed Russell with Zeitlin a possible spoiler.

Best Female Lead

Emayatzy Corinealdi – Middle of Nowhere (RU:Peter)
Linda Cardellini – Return
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook (Wesley / Peter / Tripp)
Quvenzhané Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild (RU:Wesley / RU:Tripp)
Mary Elizabeth Winstead – Smashed

Wesley Lovell: While I would love Jennifer Lawrence to win, the same case made in Best Picture and Best Director applies here. Quvenzhané Wallis seems like a much safer runner-up than anywhere and while the other two categories, I’d say are uncertain if they’ll flip, this one I’m beginning to think it will. Of course, it would be nice if Emayatzy Corinealdi were in this to win, but sadly she isn’t.

Best Male Lead

Jack Black – Bernie
Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook (Wesley / Tripp / RU:Peter)
John Hawkes – The Sessions (Peter / RU:Wesley / RU:Tripp)
Thure Lindhart – Keep the Lights On
Matthew McConaughey – Killer Joe
Wendell Pierce – Four

Wesley Lovell: This is a little more clear cut case for me as Bradley Cooper is the ONLY Oscar nominee. Of course, he’s not your typical independant star, so McConaughey, Black or Lindhart could also win, but my prediction for runner-up is the almost-Oscar-nominated John Hawkes.

Best Supporting Female

Rosemarie Dewitt – Your Sister’s Sister
Ann Dowd – Compliance (RU:Wesley / RU:Peter / RU:Tripp)
Helen Hunt – The Sessions (Wesley / Peter / Tripp)
Brit Marling – Sound of My Voice
Lorraine Toussaint – Middle of Nowhere

Wesley Lovell: Another category with a solo Oscar nominee and I feel much safer predicting Helen Hunt than i did Bradley Cooper. Of course, Ann Dowd could be a force considering the flap over her failure to secure an Oscar nomination despite spending her own money when her studio refused to campaign.

Best Supporting Male

Matthew McConaughey – Magic Mike (Wesley / Peter / Tripp)
David Oyelowo – Middle of Nowhere
Michael Pena – End of Watch
Sam Rockwell – Seven Psychopaths (RU:Peter)
Bruce Willis – Moonrise Kingdom (RU:Wesley / RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: No Oscar nominees and no Beasts of the Southern Wild‘s Dwight Henry makes this a tougher pick, though I think McConaughey will likely carry this one out simply because he was the one of these nominees closest to getting an Oscar nomination.

Best Screenplay

Keep the Lights On
Moonrise Kingdom (RU:Wesley / RU:Peter / RU:Tripp)
Ruby Sparks
Seven Psychopaths
Silver Linings Playbook (Wesley / Peter / Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Two Oscar-nominated scripts compete here and with Beasts not making an appearance (another reason to suggest SLP will be winning big in above-the-line categories), it’s very likely that Silver Linings Playbook will take it.

Best First Screenplay

Celeste and Jesse Forever (RU:Peter / RU:Tripp)
Fill the Void
Gayby
Robot & Frank (RU:Wesley)
Safety Not Guaranteed (Wesley / Peter / Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Safety Not Guaranteed has more nominations than the rest of these films, making it the most likely to triumph, but any other script could easily win.

Best Cinematography

Valley of Saints
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Wesley / Peter / Tripp)
Here
Moonrise Kingdom (RU:Wesley / RU:Peter / RU:Tripp)
End of Watch

Wesley Lovell: I put down Beasts of the Southern Wild simply because it’s so frequently nominated this year, but Moonrise Kingdom is a far more lush and obvious endeavor.

Best International Film

Amour – France (Wesley / Peter / Tripp)
Once Upon a Time in Anatolia – Turkey
Rust and Bone – France/Belgium (RU:Peter / RU:Tripp)
Sister – Switzerland
War Witch – Democratic Republic of Congo (RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: The Oscar Best Picture nominee should have little trouble carrying this one.

Best Documentary

The Central Park Five (RU:Wesley / RU:Peter / RU:Tripp)
How to Survive a Plague (Wesley / Peter / Tripp)
The Invisible War
Marina Abramovic: The Artist Is Present
The Waiting Room

Wesley Lovell: With Oscar nominees on the list, odds are one of them will win. I give the edge to How to Survive a Plague, one of the most honored films in this list.