2015 Oscar Predictions: December / Pre-Guild

What a difference a month can make. In November, we were certain that Joy and The Hateful Eight would be major players. Now, they are almost afterthoughts. A month ago, no one thought Mad Max: Fury Road would so effectively dominate the critics awards, yet after countless prizes for Best Picture and Best Director, we have a formidable potential nominee.

Starting after the new year, the guilds (except SAG) begin revealing their year-end slates that will ultimately determine how confident we are in our predictions. While critics have clearly set the tone of the narrative to this point, we’ll see how their thoughts translate into the several craftsmen guilds. Will Mad Max: Fury Road continue its dominance (no doubt everyone is looking to see how the Directors Guild of America treats the film)? Will The Big Short prove to be a stronger player than anyone guessed? Will someone we never saw coming suddenly emerge as a threat?

The fog of the crystal ball has diminished enough that our initial predictions are starting to solidify around several options. What we’re looking for now is to see the strength of the various Best Picture contenders in below-the-line categories before finalizing our thoughts. Here are our final pre-guild predictions (and the last of the calendar year 2015). We take a look at the previous categories, but add in a few categories that have juried lists of finalists: Visual Effects, Foreign Language Film and Documentary Feature.

One last change from our prior outing is that we’ve ranked our Best Picture predictions in the order we think they are most likely to be nominated for the award. From the looks of things, Spotlight and Carol are plainly dominating our predictions, but some films, like Brooklyn and Bridge of Spies are performing better in our minds than others would suggest. Take a look at our predictions and feel free to chime in with what you think.

KEY:

Appears on Four Lists
Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists

Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton Thomas LaTourrette

[New] = New Prediction
[Return] = Prior Prediction Returning
(O) = Original Prediction
(J) = July / Post-Cannes Predictions
(T) = Post-Telluride / Toronto Predictions
(N) = November Predictions
(D) = December / Pre-Guild Predictions

Best Picture

(40) Spotlight (10 T) (10 J) (10 N) (10 N)
(27) Carol (8 J) (8 O) (7 J) (4 O/D)
(25) Brooklyn (6 N) (9 O) (8 O) (2 O)
(21) The Martian (5 O) (6 T) (9 N) (1 D) [New]
(19) Bridge of Spies (7 O) (5 O) (4 O) (3 O)
(18) The Revenant (9 O) (1 O) (2 O/N) (6 O)
(18) Room (4 N) (7 N)(7 N)
(15) The Big Short (1 D) [New] (6 D) [New] (8 D) [New]
(14) Mad Max: Fury Road (2 D) [New] (4 D) [New] (3 D) [New] (5 D) [New]
(8) Inside Out (3 J) (5 T)
(3) Star Wars: The Force Awakens (3 D) [New]
(2) Ex Machina (2 D) [New]
(1) The Hateful Eight (1 O)
(1) Straight Outta Compton (1 D) [New]

Best Animated Feature

Anomalisa (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
The Good Dinosaur (WL O) (PP O)(TL O)
Inside Out (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
The Peanuts Movie (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
Shaun the Sheep Movie (WL D) [New] (TB D) [New] (TL O)
When Marnie Was There (PP O) (TB O)

Best Director

John Crowley – Brooklyn (PP O)
Todd Haynes – Carol (WL J/D) (PP O/D) (TB J/D) (TL D) [New]
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – The Revenant (WL J) (PP O/N)(TL O)
Tom McCarthy – Spotlight (WL T) (PP T) (TB N) (TL N)
Adam McKay – The Big Short (TB D) [New]
George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road (WL D) [New] (TB D) [New]
Ridley Scott – The Martian (WL D) [New] (PP N) (TB N) (TL D) [New]

Best Actor

Bryan Cranston – Trumbo (WL D) [New] (TB D) [New] (TL D) [New]
Matt Damon – The Martian (WL D) [New] (PP N) (TB N) (TL N)
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant (WL J) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs (WL T) (PP T) (TB O) (TL O)
Ian McKellen – Mr. Holmes (PP O/D)
Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
Jacob Tremblay – Room (PP D) [New]

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett – Carol (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
Brie Larson – Room (WL T) (PP T) (TB T) (TL N)
Jennifer Lawrence – Joy (WL O) (TB O)
Rooney Mara – Carol (PP O/D) (TB D) [New] (TL D) [New]
Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years (WL D) [New] (PP D) [New](TL N)
Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn (WL N) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale – The Big Short (WL D) [New] (TB D) [New] (TL D) [New]
Emory Cohen – Brooklyn (PP O/D)
Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation (TL O/D)
Oscar Isaac – Ex Machina (PP D) [New]
Michael Keaton – Spotlight (PP T)
Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight (WL T) (PP T/D) (TB N)
Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies (WL N) (PP T) (TB N) (TL N)
Michael Shannon – 99 Homes (WL D) [New] (TB D) [New] (TL D) [New]
Sylvester Stallone – Creed (WL D) [New](TL D) [New]
Jacob Tremblay – Room (TB N)

Best Supporting Actress

Joan Allen – Room (TL D) [New]
Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight (WL J) (PP T/D) (TB O) (TL O)
Rooney Mara – Carol (WL O)
Rachel McAdams – Spotlight (TB D) [New] (TL D) [New]
Helen Mirren – Trumbo (WL O) (TB D) [New]
Kristen Stewart – Clouds of Sils Maria (PP D) [New]
Alicia Vikander – Ex Machina (WL D) [New] (PP D) [New] (TB D) [New] (TL D) [New]
Julie Walters – Brooklyn (PP O)
Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs (WL N) (PP T) (TB T/D) (TL N)