Tomorrow morning, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce the nominees for the 88th Academy Awards. Our predictors have examined the data and, with a lot of struggling to come up with uor final lists, we’ve finally put them together. There are a couple of guilds left to announce nominations today, but for the most part these are basically final. If there are any changes today, we’ll post them in the comments.

Looking over this list, the lack of consensus is something we haven’t seen in the history of this site. While there have always been a few oddball stragglers (nominees) in each category, most of our thoughts have coalesced around a handful of leaders. This year, we aren’t so lucky with plenty of tension in several races. That said, here are our final nomination predictions. Our contributors ranked the Best Picture contenders we’ve submitted in order of likelihood of a nomination. Ten points are assigned to the top film and 1 point is assigned to the bottom. We then combine the totals to get an overall prediction probability. That category alone is ranked in order of most to least likely to receive nominations.

Please note that due to time constraints, some of this commentary wasn’t edited. I will try and go back through and fix typos and such as I have time.

KEY:

Best Picture

• (40) Spotlight (WL 10 T) (PP 10 J) (TB 10 N) (TL 10 N)
• (28) The Martian (WL 7 O) (PP 6 T) (TB 8 N) (TL 7 D)
• (28) The Revenant (WL 9 O) (PP 5 O) (TB 5 O/N) (TL 9 O)
• (24) The Big Short (WL 6 D) (PP 1 F) [New] (TB 9 D) (TL 8 D)
• (21) Carol (WL 4 J) (PP 8 O) (TB 3 J) (TL 6 O/D)
• (20) Bridge of Spies (WL 8 O) (PP 2 O) (TB 6 O) (TL 4 O)
• (18) Brooklyn (WL 3 N) (PP 9 O) (TB 1 O) (TL 5 O)
• (18) Mad Max: Fury Road (WL 5 D) (PP 4 D) (TB 7 D) (TL 2 D)
• (11) Room (WL 1 N) (PP 7 N)(TL 3 N)
• (6) Inside Out (WL 2 J) (TB 4 T)
• (3) Straight Outta Compton (TB 2 T/F) (TL 1 D)
• (3) Ex Machina (PP 3 D)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: This is a tough category to call. Precedent since the expansion to ten shows that the DGA Best Director nominees will all get nominations (the lone exception to this was The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo). So, Spotlight, The Martian, The Revenant, The Big Short and Mad Max: Fury Road are in. I put Mad Max fairly low on my list because I thought it could follow in Dragon Tattoo’s footsteps without much trouble. I honestly think we’ll hit the ten nomination field this year. With no film seemingly dominating the conversation, using the Surplus Rule might not happen and the votes may be spread out enough that ten or more films hit the 5% threshold needed for a nomination. I put Bridge of Spies and Brooklyn closer to the top because they appeal to older Academy voters and anyone who sees Brooklyn will surely like it enough to give it some votes. Room seems to have faded some and without genuine support from BAFTA, I think its chances are dwindling. My tenth spot is for Inside Out because it feels like the kind of obvious nominee that somehow gets forgotten. Straight Outta Compton, Sicario, Steve Jobs and The Danish Girl could also sneak in, as could Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Beyond that, I don’t think there’s much else to contend.
Peter J. Patrick: Spotlight, Brooklyn, Carol and Room are my personal picks as well as strong contenders, the remainder are my best guesses as to what AMPAS will also nominate.
Tripp Burton: Tripp did not have any comments at this time.
Thomas LaTourrette: This category could go many ways. I don’t know if the lack of clear frontrunners will lead to there being nine or ten nominees, or as few as five or six. It will make for an interesting announcement Thursday morning. Spotlight, The Revenant, The Big Short, The Martian and Carol feel pretty safe. My personal love for Brooklyn has it higher on the list than it might deserve, but it was a well made and well received film, and I think it will score a nomination. One can never count out a Steven Spielberg film, so Bridge of Spies should also score a nom. Both of these are old fashioned types of films that the Academy tends to like. If there are only seven nominated films, then these may be them. Room and Mad Max: Fury Road may make the cut if there are more, but especially Mad Max is not the typical film to pick up a nomination in this category. It has a lot of precursor awards, but I am just uncertain that it will prevail, especially after the BAFTA snub and the lack of any wins at the Golden Globes. Some people will be shocked if it gets left out, but I could see that happening. If we have a completely full slate of films, then I think Straight Outta Compton will claim the final spot over Trumbo and Sicario. It will be interesting to see how this category plays out.

Best Animated Feature

• Anomalisa (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Good Dinosaur (WL O) (PP O)(TL O)
• Inside Out (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL TL1 O)
• Kahlil Gibran’s The Prophet (TL F) [New]
• The Peanuts Movie (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Shaun the Sheep Movie (WL D) (TB D) (TL O)
• When Marnie Was There (PP O) (TB O)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Strangely, I think critics’ darling Anomalisa is the weakest contender of the bunch. This branch’s aversion to such films runs deep, so it could easily be replaced by any of the three GKids nominees (Boy and the World, Kahlil Gibran’s The Prophet or When Marnie Was There). However, my opinion on this category hasn’t really changed since I wrote my pre-guild prediction article.
Peter J. Patrick: When Marnie Was There is my personal pick which, for some unfathomable reason doesn’t seem to have much traction. The remainder are consensus picks.
Tripp Burton: Tripp did not have any comments at this time.
Thomas LaTourrette: Inside Out is an incredibly safe bet. Anomalisa, even with its adult themes, and The Good Dinosaur also are likely to be nominated. Aardman Studios has had a good track record in this field, so I think that Shaun the Sheep Movie will also get a nomination. The fifth spot is harder to guess. The Peanuts Movie was enjoyable, but felt like a retread of the television specials. Minions did well at the box office, which swayed the producers guild, but I don’t think that will carry much weight with the Academy. That leaves Studio Ghibli’s When Marnie Was There and Kahlil Gibran’s The Prophet. I am thinking that people of a certain age’s fondness for the book of The Prophet may be just enough to push it over the edge and get it the nomination over The Peanuts Movie.

Best Director

• Todd Haynes – Carol (PP O/D) (TB J/D)
• Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – The Revenant (WL J) (PP O/N) (TB N/F) (TL O)
• Tom McCarthy – Spotlight (WL T) (PP T)(TL N)
• Adam McKay – The Big Short (WL F) [New] (TB D) (TL F) [New]
• George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road (WL D) (TB D) (TL F) [New]
• Laszlo Nemes – Son of Saul (PP F) [New]
• Ridley Scott – The Martian (WL D) (PP N) (TB N) (TL D)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: The DGA managed to clarify a few things. American guild members aren’t as impressed with Carol as their British counterparts. Adam McKay is doing surprisingly well and George Miller is still a threat. Still, it’s possible the Academy gives Haynes a nod, but over whom? It could be over McKay or McCarthy, but for now, I’m going with the DGA five.
Peter J. Patrick: In all fairness I haven’t seen The Big Short but I’ve never been able to take more than two minutes of anything Adam McKay has been associated with so I have no problem leaving the DGA nominee out of my predictions. The other DGA nominee I’m not predicting is George Miller whose Mad Max resurrection I could have done without. Any combination of Haynes, Nemes, Lenny Abrahamson (Room) and John Crowley (Brooklyn) in their place would make my Oscar morning.
Tripp Burton: Tripp did not have any comments at this time.
Thomas LaTourrette: This category still feels in flux, and I am not certain that the DGA nominations will clarify it. Alejandro Inarritu and Tom McCarthy seem locks to get noms, even though McCarthy has not won many precursor awards to date. Inarritu’s win at the Globes shows he has enough support to get one as. Todd Haynes had seemed likely to get one for Carol, but without a DGA nod, his chances have slipped. Instead it looks like Adam McKay will get a first nomination for The Big Short. Ridley Scott will likely get a career nomination and perhaps win for his work on The Martian, though it is probably the weakest of his nominated movies. George Miller seems poised to get a first nomination for the latest Mad Max movie, but I am just uncertain that the Academy will honor him there. I am currently leaving him in place, but I would not be surprised if either Steven Spielberg for Bridge of Spies or Todd Haynes for Carol ends up replacing him.

Best Actor

• Steve Carell – The Big Short (TB F) [New]
• Bryan Cranston – Trumbo (WL D)(TL D)
• Matt Damon – The Martian (WL D) (PP N) (TB N) (TL N)
• Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant (WL J) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs (WL T) (PP T) (TB O) (TL O)
• Ian McKellen – Mr. Holmes (PP O/D)
• Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl (WL O) (PP O/F) (TB O) (TL O)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: I haven’t really had a chance of heart since my pre-guild prediction article, so see my thoughts there.
Peter J. Patrick: McKellen is my dark horse candidate over presumptive favorite Bryan Cranson (Trumbo). Redmayne is also vulnerable with Son of Saul’s Géza Rohrig my personal pick to fill his slot.
Tripp Burton: Tripp did not have any comments at this time.
Thomas LaTourrette: Four of these slots seem pretty set, with probable winner DiCaprio, Cranston, Fassbender and Redmayne pretty much guaranteed spots. Fassbender may be in the weakest position of those four, but his well received performance should out trump the lack of box office the film did. Matt Damon seems the likely person to claim the fifth spot, but he does have strong competition from SAG nominated Johnny Depp, old veteran Michael Caine and Will Smith, with Depp being the one who might sneak in for the nom, but I still think it will go to Damon. The fact that The Martian will have plenty of other nominations, starting with Best Picture, should help him succeed here.

Best Actress

• Cate Blanchett – Carol (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Brie Larson – Room (WL T) (PP T) (TB T) (TL N)
• Jennifer Lawrence – Joy (WL O) (TB O) (TL F) [New]
• Rooney Mara – Carol (PP O/D)
• Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years (WL D) (PP D) (TB F) [New] (TL N)
• Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn (WL N) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: I briefly flirted with giving Rooney Mara a slot in Best Actress again, but then I remembered BAFTA and the DGA showed they didn’t care much for the film, all of which suggests soft support. Therefore, see my thoughts in my prior pre-guild prediction article for why I think Mara will ultimately end up in Supporting Actress instead of where she belongs. I think Jennifer Lawrence most benefits, but a surprise could emerge from where we haven’t been expecting.
Peter J. Patrick: Blanchett, Larson, Mara, Rampling and Ronan were the year’s five best lead actresses. If AMPAS kowtows to the Weinstein Company’s dictates and nominates Mara in support, then anything could happen, but I don’t want to think that so I won’t go there.
Tripp Burton: Tripp did not have any comments at this time.
Thomas LaTourrette: Three of these spots are givens, with Blanchett, Larson and Ronan having claimed them. It gets a whole lot murkier after that, especially with all of the talk of category fraud this year. Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander could end up either here, which would be more correct, or in the supporting actress category, which is starting to seem more likely. If that happens, it leaves room for Charlotte Rampling and Jennifer Lawrence to take the final two spots, even though Lawrence does not really deserve it for this role. Potential spoilers are Maggie Smith for The Lady in the Van, SAG nominated Sarah Silverman for I Smile Back or Helen Mirren for The Woman in Gold.

Best Supporting Actor

• Christian Bale – The Big Short (WL D) (TB D) (TL D)
• Benicio del Toro – Sicario (WL F) [New]
• Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation (TB T/F) (TL O/D)
• Michael Keaton – Spotlight (PP T)
• Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight (WL T) (PP T/D)(TL F) [New]
• Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies (WL N) (PP T) (TB N) (TL N)
• Michael Shannon – 99 Homes (TB D)
• Sylvester Stallone – Creed (WL D) (PP F) [New] (TB F) [New] (TL D)
• Jacob Tremblay – Room (PP N/F)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: The ovation at the Golden Globes affected my impressions of this race, as did the BAFTA nominations. While Stallone wasn’t nominated there, the reception Sunday night was enough to make me think he’ll make the final list. At first, I thought I’d keep him in there with Michael Shannon, but then I recalled what BAFTA did and had an inkling that perhaps Benicio Del Toro is doing better this season than anyone thought. I gave him the edge for the fifth slot.
Peter J. Patrick: This is the year’s most competitive category with Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation), Paul Dano (Love & Mercy) and Michael Shannon (99 Homes) extremely strong possibilities beyond my expectations for Keaton, Ruffalo, Rylance, Stallone and Tremblay.
Tripp Burton: Tripp did not have any comments at this time.
Thomas LaTourrette: This is a fairly difficult category to predict. I think that Rylance and probably Stallone have spots. Elba and Bale also seem likely nominees. Bale’s film is peaking at the right time, so he should be in. Elba is in a more precarious position as I don’t know how the Academy will treat the Netflix film. The SAG nomination should help, and I think he will be in. I am guessing that the final spot would go to Ruffalo for Spotlight, though he actually faces competition from his costars Steve Carell and Stanley Tucci. Paul Dano has gotten strong notices for his work as the young Brian Wilson in Love & Mercy, but the early release of that film might limit his chances. Michael Shannon likewise had received good reviews for 99 Homes, but that movie was so little seen that he may not have much of a chance. Earlier, Benicio del Toro has seemed a likely nominee for Sicario. The movie has done well with the guilds, so that support might carry over, but I am still thinking the fifth slot goes to Ruffalo.

Best Supporting Actress

• Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight (WL J) (PP T/D) (TB O) (TL O)
• Rooney Mara – Carol (WL O) (TB J/F) (TL F) [New]
• Rachel McAdams – Spotlight (TB D) (TL D)
• Helen Mirren – Trumbo (WL O)
• Kristen Stewart – Clouds of Sils Maria (PP D)
• Alicia Vikander – Ex Machina (WL D) (PP D) (TB D) (TL D)
• Julie Walters – Brooklyn (PP O)
• Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs (WL N) (PP T) (TB T/D) (TL N)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: I swapped in Rachel McAdams briefly, but she’s out again for Rooney Mara. See my comments in my pre-guild prediction article to understand why I think this is an unfortunate, but likely outcome.
Peter J. Patrick: Walters is my dark horse, but BAFTA’s nomination last week gives me hope. Leigh, Stewart, Vikander and Winslet are fairly solid with Rachel McAdams (Spotlight) poised to upset.
Tripp Burton: Tripp did not have any comments at this time.
Thomas LaTourrette: I had long thought that Kate Winslet was the most likely nominee for her strong performance in Steve Jobs. I also thought she stood no chance of winning for it. The surprise win at the Golden Globes will have me reconsidering that position. Jennifer Jason Leigh looks likely to score her first nom as the only female in The Hateful Eight Ensemble. Quentin Tarantino has not had a good record of directing women to a nomination, but that looks likely to change this year. Alicia Vikander has had an amazing year, starring in several high profile movies. She could easily be nominated in this category for her work in Ex Machina, but I think the Academy may end up putting her up for The Danish Girl instead. She was spectacular in the part, but it was a true lead, rather than a supporting role. The same is true of Rooney Mara’s role in Carol. She should be nominated for lead role in it, but I think she will be claiming a spot here instead. The final spot is harder to predict. Joan Allen in Room and Jane Fonda in Youth had strong notices, but both seem to be fading from the discussion. Helen Mirren might sneak in for her slightly one note performance as Hedda Hopper in Trumbo, but I will go with Rachel McAdams who was also the only major female in a large ensemble piece in Spotlight.

Best Original Screenplay

• Bridge of Spies (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Ex Machina (WL D) (PP O) (TB F) [New]
• The Hateful Eight (TB O) (TL O)
• Inside Out (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Sicario (WL F) [New] (PP O)
• Son of Saul (PP O)
• Spotlight (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Straight Outta Compton (TL F) [New]

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: For a time, I thought Quentin Tarantino was assured a nomination, but the reviews haven’t been kind and there’s just something about Sicario that has kept it in the conversation longer this season than I expected> I give it the slgiht edge to keep The Hateful Eight out of this race.
Peter J. Patrick: I suppose Son of Saul and Sicario could be considered dark horses, but I’m not ready to jump on the Inside Out and Hateful Eight bandwagons.
Tripp Burton: Tripp did not have any comments at this time.
Thomas LaTourrette: Spotlight, Inside Out and Bridge of Spies will probably all be nominated. Bridge is in the weakest spot of the bunch, but the BAFTA nomination makes me think it will prevail here. Academy favorite Quentin Tarantino seems likely to earn his fourth nomination for The Hateful Eight. That leaves four very different films vying for the last spot. Trainwreck has gotten Amy Schumer notice, but comedies have a hard time getting chosen here. The same goes for the science fiction film Ex Machina, though the Producers guild nomination shows it has support. The drug war film Sicario has also gotten a lot of guild support, but I don’t think that will be enough to get it a nomination here. I think the final spot will go to the musical biopic Straight Outta Compton, though if any of the others sneak in, that would not be too much of a surprise.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• The Big Short (WL D) (TB D) (TL D)
• Brooklyn (PP O)(TL O)
• Carol (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Martian (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Room (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Steve Jobs (WL F) [New] (PP O) (TB O) (TL F) [New]

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: I would love to see Brooklyn nominated, but I fear it will be left off. Carol could also be replaced, but if anywhere it should fare well at the Oscars, it’s here.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m not feeling the love for The Big Short yet. Hopefully it won’t knock out Brooklyn among my predicitons.
Tripp Burton: Tripp did not have any comments at this time.
Thomas LaTourrette: There are eight films that could easily get a nomination, but only five spots. And I can picture cases where it goes all sort of different ways. Carol and Room both seem likely to prevail. I had thought that Steve Jobs was likely to miss the cut, but the BAFTA nomination and the Golden Globe win make me think it has stronger support than I had realized. So I now think it will get a spot. The Big Short also seems likely to get a nom. Of the remaining four, The Revenant and Trumbo seem the least likely to secure a spot, but I am not certain of that. The Revenant’s wins at the Globes show it is well liked. And Hollywood does like pictures about itself, so Trumbo is still a possibility. That leaves Brooklyn and The Martian. Brooklyn was a lovely adaptation of Colm Toibin’s novel. It will likely get a number of other nominations which could help it here, but so will The Martian. I have not read that novel, but I have heard that this was a good adaptation of it as well. Although The Martian has more momentum right now, I will go with the film I liked better and predict that Brooklyn will sneak in for that final spot.

Best Original Score

• Bridge of Spies (PP F)(TL F)
• Carol (WL F) (PP F)(TL F)
• The Danish Girl (TB F)
• The Hateful Eight (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
• Inside Out (WL F) (TB F) (TL F)
• Sicario (WL F) (PP F)
• Spotlight (TB F)
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens (WL F) (TB F) (TL F)
• Brooklyn (PP F)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: This is almost a crap shoot, but The Hateful Eight and Carol seem like safe bets. Star Wars will likely earn John Williams a tribute nomination for returning to one of his most famous scores. The remaining two I gave out based on prior tendencies (Inside Out) or strong showing of support in general (Sicario).
Peter J. Patrick: We shall see what we shall see.
Tripp Burton: Tripp did not have any comments at this time.
Thomas LaTourrette: Two old masters will definitely be in the mix here. Ennio Morricone’s return to westerns will get him a nomination for The Hateful Eight. John Williams’ tweaking of familiar themes will also net him one for Star Wars: The Force Awakens. It also seems likely that one of them will eventually win the Oscar. The scores of Carol and Bridge of Spies should join them. The works from Sicario, Steve Jobs, The Danish Girl and Spotlight are all reasonable choices, but I think the category will be rounded out with the sprightly work from Inside Out.

Best Original Song

• “Feels Like Summer” – Shaun the Sheep Movie (WL F)
• “Hands of Love” – Freeheld (PP F)
• “The Light That Never Fails” – Meru (TB F)
• “Love Me Like You Do” – Fifty Shades of Grey (PP F)(TL F)
• “None of Them Are You” – Anomalisa (PP F) (TB F)
• “See You Again” – Furious 7 (WL F) (PP F)(TL F)
• “Simple Song #3” – Youth (WL F) (TB F) (TL F)
• “So Long” – Concussion (TB F)
• “Til It Happens to You” – The Hunting Ground (WL F) (TB F) (TL F)
• “Writing’s On the Wall” – Spectre (WL F) (PP F)(TL F)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Who knows for sure how this branch thinks. They’ve made some screwy choices in the past. These are my best bets, but I wouldn’t count any of them as safe.
Peter J. Patrick: My predictions here are mostly just a hunch.
Tripp Burton: Tripp did not have any comments at this time.
Thomas LaTourrette: This is always a difficult category to predict as one never knows what the music branch will deem worthy. Strange as it seems, we may soon be able to refer to Furious 7 and Fifty Shades of Grey as Oscar nominated films as the former’s tribute to Paul Walker See You Again and the latter’s catchy Love Me Like You Do could make the cut. The former is fairly assured, but the latter could sneak in as well. Lady Gaga’s anthem Til It Happens to You from the documentary The Hunting Ground should claim a spot. The operatic Simple Song #3 from Youth also is likely to be nominated. Another song from Fifty Shades could make it in, as could songs from Concussion, Creed, Pitch Perfect 2or even Shaun the Sheep Movie, but I will go with Spectre’s Writing’s on the Wall for the final spot.

Best Film Editing

• The Big Short (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
• Bridge of Spies (WL F) (PP F)(TL F)
• Mad Max: Fury Road (WL F) (TB F) (TL F)
• The Martian (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
• The Revenant (WL F) (TB F)
• Sicario (PP F)
• Spotlight (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Based on the ACE nominations and what happened at BAFTA, I think these are all very likely nominees. Bridge of Spies is probably the weakest on the list and Best Picture contender Spotlight could take that spot as could Sicario.
Peter J. Patrick: For me, Bridge of Spies, The Martian and Spotlight are very likely with the last two slots up for grabs.
Tripp Burton: Tripp did not have any comments at this time.
Thomas LaTourrette: This should prove an interesting category. Spotlight did not score a nomination from the guild, but I think it will get a nomination here. If it does not, then that will really hurt its chances to win best picture. Mad Max: Fury Road, The Big Short and The Martian all are likely to prevail. The final spot should come from Sicario, The Revenant, Bridge of Spies or Straight Outta Compton, with Bridge having a slight edge.

Best Cinematography

• Bridge of Spies (WL F)
• Carol (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
• The Hateful Eight (TL F)
• Mad Max: Fury Road (WL F) (TB F) (TL F)
• The Martian (PP F) (TB F)
• The Revenant (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
• Sicario (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
• The Walk (PP F)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: It isn’t often that the ASC mirrors Oscar exactly, but I have a feeling this year might be one of them.
Peter J. Patrick: This one was tough to narrow down, but Carol, The Revenant and Sicario seem secure here with The Martian and The Walk my strongest hunches at this point.
Tripp Burton: Tripp did not have any comments at this time.
Thomas LaTourrette: The Academy does not always follow BAFTA and the cinematographer’s guild, but if it does, the nominees will be Bridge of Spies, Carol, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant and Sicario. Bridge is probably in the weakest spot which could allow Son of Saul or The Martian to sneak in. The wild card will be The Hateful Eight which was highly trumpeted for being filmed in a wide format that hadn’t been used in decades. The outside vistas are glorious (but so were The Revenant’s), but so much if the film was filmed indoors which defeats the purpose of the camera. That being said, I think it will knock Bridge out and claim the fifth spot.

Best Production Design

• Bridge of Spies (WL F) (PP F) (TB F)
• Brooklyn (PP F)
• Carol (WL F) (PP F)(TL F)
• Crimson Peak (TB F)
• The Danish Girl (WL F) (TB F) (TL F)
• Ex Machina (PP F)
• Mad Max: Fury Road (WL F) (TB F) (TL F)
• The Martian (PP F)(TL F)
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens (WL F) (TB F) (TL F)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Carol didn’t get an ADG nomination, but I suspect Oscar will still recognize it, but I could also see them picking the grandiose Crimson Peak or the quaint Brooklyn instead.
Peter J. Patrick: This was a really tough call, but I went with my heart on this one.
Tripp Burton: Tripp did not have any comments at this time.
Thomas LaTourrette: Mad Max, The Danish Girl and Carol all should be nominated. Star Wars probably will too, though I think that support for the film has been weaker than expected. The Martian will probably take the final spot, though there are several films that could easily make it through instead.

Best Costume Design

• Brooklyn (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
• Carol (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
• Cinderella (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
• Crimson Peak (WL F)
• The Danish Girl (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
• Mad Max: Fury Road (TL F)
• Pan (TB F)
• Trumbo (PP F)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: These five seem most likely, though Brooklyn could easily be replaced by Mad Max, Star Wars, Revenant or even Bridge of Spies. Of course, some left-field choice like Crimson Peak could also pick up the slack.
Peter J. Patrick: Something (mostly) old seems like the way they’ll go (again!).
Tripp Burton: Tripp did not have any comments at this time.
Thomas LaTourrette: Cate Blanchett’s stunning gowns in both Cinderella and Carol will merit nominations. The gorgeous period work of The Danish Girl and Brooklyn should also score nominations. The final spot could to the period work of The Revenant, Crimson Peak, Trumbo or The Hateful Eight or the futuristic work of Mad Max. My guess is that it will go to Mad Max, but any of them would be a good choice.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared (TB F)
• Black Mass (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
• Legend (PP F)
• Mad Max: Fury Road (WL F) (TB F) (TL F)
• The Revenant (WL F) (PP F)(TL F)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Star with the heaviest use of make up and then add to it. Revenant and Mad Max fit that bill. I’m going with Black Mass for the third spot, but any of the others could make it.
Peter J. Patrick: Black Mass, Legend and The Revenant seem most likely considering the very narrow short list.
Tripp Burton: Tripp did not have any comments at this time.
Thomas LaTourrette: The Academy ruled out some strong choices when it whittled the list down to seven films. Mad Max and The Revenant are almost assured nominations and that leaves a third spot to a much weaker film. I know nothing about the Swedish film The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out a Window and Disappeared, but the title alone makes it almost worth nominating. My guess is that the transformation of Johnny Depp in Black Mass will trump the aging of Ian McKellan in Mr. Holmes for the last spot.

Best Sound Mixing

• Bridge of Spies (PP F) (TB F)
• The Hateful Eight (WL F) (PP F)
• Mad Max: Fury Road (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
• The Martian (WL F) (TB F) (TL F)
• The Revenant (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
• Straight Outta Compton (TL F)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: This is a tough category as there are plenty of loud films that could get the nomination, but a plethora of Best Picture contenders have strong sound mixes, so they are likely to dominate this list.
Peter J. Patrick: They like ’em loud, so there’s not much breathing room for anything else here.
Tripp Burton: Tripp did not have any comments at this time.
Thomas LaTourrette: Star Wars, Mad Max, The Revenant and The Martian all should pull off nominations. The Hateful Eight, Sicario, Bridge of Spies, Jurassic World and Straight Outta Compton all would be worthy of a spot too. I will give the edge to Compton because of the use of music in the film, even though Bridge of Spies got the guild nomination.

Best Sound Editing

• Bridge of Spies (PP F)
• The Hateful Eight (PP F)(TL F)
• Inside Out (TB F)
• Jurassic World (TB F)
• Mad Max: Fury Road (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
• The Martian (WL F) (TB F) (TL F)
• The Revenant (WL F) (PP F)(TL F)
• Sicario (WL F)
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: I only swapped out The Hateful Eight for Sicario in this list. I’m not sure if that’s a wise move, but I’m going with it.
Peter J. Patrick: They like ’em loud here as well.
Tripp Burton: Tripp did not have any comments at this time.
Thomas LaTourrette: Once again, Star Wars, Mad Max, The Martian and The Revenant seem set to repeat their nods. Any of the other films listed for sound mixing could be in here as well, as could the animated Inside Out. This time I will lean towards The Hateful Eight for the final position.

Best Visual Effects

• Jurassic World (TB O) (TL O)
• Mad Max: Fury Road (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Martian (WL O) (PP O) (TB F) [New] (TL O)
• The Revenant (WL F) [New] (PP O)
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Walk (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB O) (TL F) [New]

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: It seems like the VES awards have given us a new perspective when Jurassic World and Ex Machina did poorly. This Best Picture-heavy line-up makes a lot of sense.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m fairly certain Mad Max, The Martian, The Revenant, Star Wars and The Walk will prevail here.
Tripp Burton: Tripp did not have any comments at this time.
Thomas LaTourrette: Star Wars, Mad Max and The Martian all should easily pick up nominations. Jurassic World also seems a good bet. I think The Walk will take the final spot, but it will face stiff competition from both The Revenant and Avengers: Age of Ultron. The bear attack in The Revenant was impressively memorable, but it is hard to go against the dinosaurs of Jurassic World. The earlier Jurassic Park films have one win and another nomination between them, so it would not be surprising if they got one more here. This will be a closer race than I would have expected.

Best Foreign Language Film

• The Brand New Testament (WL O)(TL F) [New]
• Embrace the Serpent (TB O)
• Labyrinth of Lies (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Mustang (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Son of Saul (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Viva (WL F) [New] (PP O)
• A War (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: Apart from Labyrinth of Lies, Mustang and Son of Saul, I can’t really decide what should make the list, so I guessed.
Peter J. Patrick: This category often has a surprise or two. Son of Saul and Labyrinth of Lies are the only really strong contenders this year.
Tripp Burton: Tripp did not have any comments at this time.
Thomas LaTourrette: Son of Saul, Mustang and Labyrinth of Lies should have guaranteed spots, but the Academy will sometimes drop a frontrunner. Still these feel like safe bets. I will list A Brand New Testament and A War to finish out the five, though Theeb or Viva could easily replace either of them.

Best Documentary Feature

• Amy (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Cartel Land (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief (TL O)
• He Named Me Malala (PP O)
• The Hunting Ground (PP O) (TB O)
• Listen to Me Marlon (PP O)
• The Look of Silence (WL O) (PP O) (TB F) [New] (TL O)
• Where to Invade Next (WL O)
• Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom (WL O) (TB O) (TL F) [New]

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: I could easily dump any one of my predictions for something else…except Amy and The Look of Silence. Both seem like safe choices.
Peter J. Patrick: This is another category in which anything could happen. I’m not 100% sure of any of these.
Tripp Burton: Tripp did not have any comments at this time.
Thomas LaTourrette: Amy and The Look of Silence have had good word of mouth and should both get nominations. Cartel Land and Going Clear both may have enough support to get in as well. For the final spot, I will list Winter of Fire as a slight favorite over The Hunting Ground, He Named Me Malala and Listen to me Marlon.

Best Documentary Short Subject

• 50 Feet from Syria (PP F) (TB F)
• Body Team 12 (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
• Chau Beyond the Lines (TL F)
• Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah (WL F) (TB F)
• A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness (WL F) (TB F) (TL F)
• Last Day of Freedom (PP F)
• Minerita (TB F)
• My Enemy, My Brother (WL F) (PP F)(TL F)
• Starting Point (WL F)
• The Testimony (WL F) (PP F)(TL F)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: I mostly just selected the ones with the most compelling descriptions. I don’t have any insight other than that.
Peter J. Patrick: I have no idea here. My predictions on this one are all guesses.
Tripp Burton: Tripp did not have any comments at this time.
Thomas LaTourrette: I do not know much about this category at present, but I will go with these to be nominated.

Best Animated Short Film

• Bear Story (Historial De Un Oso) (WL F)(TL F)
• Carface (TB F) (TL F)
• If I Was God… (PP F)(TL F)
• Love in the Time of March Madness (WL F) (PP F)
• My Home (PP F) (TB F)
• An Object at Rest (WL F)
• Sanjay’s Super Team (WL F) (TB F) (TL F)
• We Can’t Live Without Cosmos (PP F) (TB F)
• World of Tomorrow (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: I mostly just selected the ones with the most compelling descriptions. I don’t have any insight other than that.
Peter J. Patrick: This is another category in which my predictions are all wild guesses.
Tripp Burton: Tripp did not have any comments at this time.
Thomas LaTourrette: If I Was God…, Sanjay’s Super Team and World of Tomorrow each had Annie nominations, which could carry over to an Oscar nom. I will add Bear Story and Carface to the list.

Best Live-Action Short Film

• Ave Maria (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
• Bad Hunter (WL F)
• Bis Gleich (Till Then) (WL F)
• Day One (TB F) (TL F)
• Everything Will Be Okay (PP F) (TB F)
• The Free Man (PP F)
• Shok (WL F) (TB F) (TL F)
• Stutterer (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
• Winter Light (WL F) (PP F)(TL F)

Commentary

Wesley Lovell: I mostly just selected the ones with the most compelling descriptions. I don’t have any insight other than that.
Peter J. Patrick: Once again I’m just making guesses in this category.
Tripp Burton: Tripp did not have any comments at this time.
Thomas LaTourrette: Any of these could make it in, but these are my guesses.