Sunday night, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) will present their annual Golden Globe Awards, the industry’s first televised precursor and one of the most legendary of them all. While they weren’t always the best forecasters, their choices in recent years have been better, thus what they pick matters a great deal. Any choice that hasn’t been much in the conversation could change the whole game.

Our team of Oscar prognosticators have put together our predictions for the Globes along with runners-up predictions. These are outlined below. We’ve also put together little bits of commentary on each category to go with our predictions. Of the 14 categories at the Globes, we’ve agreed on four: both Best Actor categories, Best Screenplay and Best Foreign Language Film. We have several three-person agreements along the way, but this is one of our most divided line-ups in years.

GOLDEN GLOBE AWARDS

Best Picture, Drama

Carol (RU:Peter)
Mad Max: Fury Road (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
The Revenant (Tripp)
Room
Spotlight (Wesley, Peter, Thomas, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: The leader of the pack this season has been Spotlight. If any organization changes that narrative, it’s the Globes. I’d say it’s the current leader, but would not be surprised to see any of the others win, but I’m leaning towards Mad Max in the upset.
Peter J. Patrick: The Hollywood Foreign “Press” Association seems poised, like other organizations that are comprised primarily of journalists, to honor a film about their own. The appeal of Spotlight is not so much the exposure of pedophile priests, but the group of professional reporters working together that brought down the powerful hierarchy of the Catholic Archdiocese of Boston. With the ever-shrinking world of press journalism about to go the way of the dodo, this may well be the investigative reporting genre’s last hurrah.
Tripp Burton: This is a wide-open category, and it is hard to pinpoint where the Globes voters will fall. Spotlight is considered the frontrunner for the season, but it also feels smaller and more indie than what Globes voters sometimes go to, and also didn’t pick up as many nominations as many of us thought it would. Carol is the nominations leader, Mad Max is the cool choice, but I think that the HFPA might lean towards The Revenant. It is the most epic of the bunch, and this is the awards body that has given this prize to The Aviator, Atonement, and Avatar over the smaller alternates the Oscars went for.
Thomas LaTourette: Spotlight seems the likely winner of this group. It has been winning most of the precursors and that should continue here. If there is to be an upset, it would probably be from Mad Max, but that does not seem a likely outcome. It is difficult to imagine any film but Spotlight winning this award.

Best Picture, Comedy/Musical

The Big Short (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Joy
The Martian (Peter, Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Spy
Trainwreck (RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: There are two camps of thought here and I’m in the Big Short camp. Not because I think it’s the better film, but because its rise to Oscar contender has been steady whereas The Martian‘s trajectory has been sliding or steady all season. I even think that Trainwreck could surprise here.
Peter J. Patrick: This one’s a race between two decidedly different films: the box-office hit, The Martian and the critical hit, The Big Short. I see the HFPA going with box-office on this one.
Tripp Burton: This is a two-man race, between the early favorite (and questionably comedic) The Martian and the quickly rising upstart The Big Short. I think that The Big Short may have come on a little too late in the balloting to usurp The Martian, which took a lot of flack for being placed here, but this will be neck-and-neck until the ballot is opened.
Thomas LaTourette: Although it has a serious subject matter, the comedy behind The Big Short should take it to the winner’s circle. It seems to be peaking at the right time, so it should win. The Martian could prove a spoiler, as it was a box office powerhouse and has probable Golden Globe winner Matt Damon as the star, but I think its early release date will count against it and The Big Short will prevail.

Best Picture, Animated

Anomalisa (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
The Peanuts Movie
Shaun the Sheep Movie (RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: This is Pixar’s to lose. I’ve never known Globe voters not to go with popular fare here.
Peter J. Patrick: This one’s a toss-up between two well received, albeit completely different, animated works. I give the edge for the more experimental Anomalisa.
Tripp Burton: I almost didn’t put a runner-up here, as Inside Out seems by far the most logical choice.
Thomas LaTourette: The wildly popular Inside Out should easily prevail here. Its main competition would seem to be the adult themed Anomalisa, but it is difficult to picture that actually winning. Pixar has done very well at the Globes as well as the Oscars, and they have yet another winner here.

Best Director

Todd Haynes – Carol
Alejandro G Inarritu – The Revenant
Tom McCarthy – Spotlight (RU:Peter)
George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Ridley Scott – The Martian (Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: The top winner this precursor season has been George Miller, but like I said before, Globe voters might change things up. If they go with Tom McCarthy, they are going with Spotlight. If they go with Ridley Scott, then Martian will win in comedy/musical. Ultimately, I think Miller is leading.
Peter J. Patrick: With the original Mad Max, Mel Gibson, scheduled to present, Miller would seem to be the expected winner here, but McCarthy, Haynes and Scott could all take this.
Tripp Burton: The Globes like their big name directors here, and they like their legends, which could bode well for Ridley Scott to finally win a Globe. George Miller is on a hot-streak, though, and is a foreign legend in his own way and this is the Globes’ chance to honor Mad Max.
Thomas LaTourette: While Spotlight has won the lion’s share of Best Picture awards, its director has not been so honored. I think that trend will continue here with him likely in the third spot. George Miller has won the most awards for his fourth Mad Max film, but I think he might be a harder sell here. The Martian will be the easier picture to honor and the previously winless Scott will likely head home with a major trophy.

Best Actor, Drama

Bryan Cranston – Trumbo (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl
Will Smith – Concussion

Wesley Lovell: Leonardo DiCaprio is a star and the Globes love stars. If he loses, then the conversation suddenly shifts against him and that would be the biggest shock of the night. Who could top him? Prior Globe honoree (in the TV categories) Bryan Cranston is my bet.
Peter J. Patrick: The HFPA loves DiCaprio. This is his 11th nomination. He’s won twice before. No reason to think he won’t again. His closest competition is probably Fassbender, who gave an excellent performance in a film with a decidedly mixed reception.
Tripp Burton: If anyone but DiCaprio, who has two Golden Globes and is being touted as the frontrunner for this year’s Oscars, wins here it will be a shock. I picked my runner-up out of a hat.
Thomas LaTourette: DiCaprio has been a massive frontrunner for this award, and I just don’t think it likely that he could lose it here. He has two previous Golden Globes and looks likely to score a third. If anyone could beat him, and that seems highly unlikely, it might be the insurgent Bryan Cranston who has become a surprise contender for Trumbo. It would seem unlikely, but perhaps his television fame could pave the way to a win for him. However, it should be Dicaprio’s easily.

Best Actress, Drama

Cate Blanchett – Carol
Brie Larson – Room (Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Rooney Mara – Carol
Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn (Wesley, Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl

Wesley Lovell: This is a tight race. Carol‘s pair will likely split the film’s support, but this really seems like a race between Brie Larson and Saoirse Ronan. I give Ronan the edge because her film is more international in flavor and she’s a prior Globe nominee. It would be thrilling of Mara won after being forced here by the HFPA. It might finally push her towards a lead nomination at the Oscars.
Peter J. Patrick: Child actors who become adult stars are a rare thing. This year the HFPA has the opportunity to reward either Ronan or Larson, both of whom are former child stars, both of whom gave outstanding young adult performances this year. Ronan plays a character whose experiences in the film are somewhat akin to those of many of the HFPA members. Larson is in one of the Best Picture nominees. It will be close, but I think Ronan will prevail.
Tripp Burton: No Oscar Best Actress winner has lost this category since Halle Berry in 2001, so if this is truly a race between Brie Larson and Saorsie Ronan, then they need to stake a firm claim here. I’m leaning Larson over Ronan, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if the HFPA went for a little more star-power and gave the award to Blanchett.
Thomas LaTourette: This has become a tight race between the two young ingenues. Ronan was simply lovely in Brooklyn and anchored the film with a strong and winning performance, but she will probably lose to the showier role of the captive Brie Larson played in Room. Both are deserving of the nominations, but it probably will go to Larson. If Ronan wins, it will signal an incredibly tight Oscar race.

Best Actor, Comedy/Musical

Christian Bale – The Big Short (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Steve Carell – The Big Short (RU:Wesley)
Matt Damon – The Martian (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Al Pacino – Danny Collins
Mark Ruffalo – Infinitely Polar Bear (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Part of me thinks Christian Bale will eke out a victory, but Matt Damon’s a prominent figure in Hollywood and his film may not win anywhere else.
Peter J. Patrick: This is Damon’s sixth acting nomination. He won for co-writing Good Will Hunting with Ben Affleck. This is Ruffalo’s third nomination in two years. I see this as Damon’s to lose with the highly popular Ruffalo ready to pick up the pieces for his little seen comedy-drama.
Tripp Burton: The last several winners in this category have had a little more heft to their roles than straight joke-selling, and have also come from films firmly in the hunt for awards season, so that would seem to eliminate Al Pacino and Mark Ruffalo from this category quickly. Christian Bale has the showiest role of the three, and the most comedic, but my guess is that The Martian holds onto its lead again here and Matt Damon wins his first Golden Globe for acting.
Thomas LaTourette: Matt Damon really has this one sewn up, and no one is likely to beat him here. He is the definite star of the film, whereas Bale and Carell are both more ensemble players than leads for The Big Short. Neither Mark Ruffalo nor Al Pacino stand a chance of winning. So Damon wins easily, which may help him in the tight race as he tries for an Oscar not next week.

Best Actress, Comedy/Musical

Jennifer Lawrence – Joy (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Melissa McCarthy – Spy
Amy Schumer – Trainwreck (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Tripp)
Maggie Smith – The Lady in the Van (RU:Peter)
Lily Tomlin – Grandma (Peter, Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: This is a tough category as none of these actresses are really major Oscar contenders. Jennifer Lawrence is closest, but I don’t see the Globes going for her this time, though it’s possible. I’m leaning towards Amy Schumer who has been on fire all year long.
Peter J. Patrick: Tomlin has been nominated five times in the past without winning. She does, however, have a special award for her ensemble work in Short Cuts. This year she’s nominated twice: one for lead actress in a comedy and one for best actress in a TV comedy. Smith has been nominated 12 times by the HFPA, nine times for film and three times for television. She’s won twice for film and once for television. Tomlin has the edge, but the still-popular Smith could just as easily pull off a third win.
Tripp Burton: The Globes love Jennifer Lawrence, but I don’t think they love her movie enough to automatically give her another award. Amy Schumer is having a phenomenal year, and her movie snuck into the Best Picture race, but voters may not think her acting is good enough to stand up against some of her competition in this category. My hunch is that the Globes, as they are periodically wont to do, will go for the lively veteran and give the award to Lily Tomlin, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Schumer up on that stage.
Thomas LaTourette: This is one of the strangest categories. I don’t know that I considered Joy to really be a comedy, but the popular Lawrence already has two Globes and the showy role in the uneven Joy may be enough to propel her to a third. She does have a reasonable competitor in Amy Schumer, and I am wondering if that film’s truly comedic screenplay might be sufficient to get her into the winner’s circle. This will probably be a fairly tight race, and I will give it to Schumer by a thin margin.

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Dano – Love & Mercy
Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation (RU:Peter)
Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies (Peter, Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Michael Shannon – 99 Homes
Sylvester Stallone – Creed (Wesley, Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: I wouldn’t be blown away if Sylvester Stallone lost here, but he needs the Globe more than anyone else. After bursting onto the scene early in Precursor Season, he’s slowly been fading. If he can’t win with the star-loving HFPA, Oscar voters will be a much tougher sell.
Peter J. Patrick: Both Rylance and Elba are also nominated for TV work this year. I give the edge to Rylance who has won the lion’s share of critics’ awards this year.
Tripp Burton: This is a wide-open category this year in every sense of the word, so anything could happen. I have it down to Stallone vs. Rylance. The HFPA loves their gigantic movie stars, especially when they are on a come-back trip, but they also love their European actors breaking into Hollywood. I think they will want to see Stallone on that stage more, but like every Supporting Actor race this year, it will be down to the wire. Interesting note: the winner of the Globe in this category has won the Oscar the past nine years. Will the streak break this year?
Thomas LaTourette: Sentiment would give this to Sylvester Stallone making a bit of a swan song of his character Rocky in the film Creed. He does get to battle illness in the film, and slowly builds towards a decent performance. However, I am just not certain that he is good enough to win, though the HFPA may like honoring the long-time actor. Mark Rylance’s quiet turn is much more memorable, and hopefully the skill involved in that will carry him to victory.

Best Supporting Actress

Jane Fonda – Youth
Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Helen Mirren – Trumbo (Tripp)
Alicia Vikander – Ex Machina (Wesley, Peter, Thomas, RU:Tripp)
Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs

Wesley Lovell: Alicia Vikander has two nominations, so I think she’s got a solid chance of a win here. However, anyone else could easily walk away with the prize, it’s that close. Except maybe Kate Winslet.
Peter J. Patrick: With an additional best actress nomination, Vikander is the clear favorite, but Leigh getting only her second Globe nod in 21 years has sentiment on her side.
Tripp Burton: This is another category where things are so up in the air that coming up with two names is difficult. Literally anyone could win this: the veteran Jane Fonda, the finally-recognized character actress Jennifer Jason Leigh, the breakthrough beauty Alicia Vikander, or Globe favorites Helen Mirren or Kate Winslet. They all fit the profile of people who the Globes honor in this category. Without a clear frontrunner to lean on, I’m thinking 14-time Globe nominee Helen Mirren sneaks out a win, but double-nominee Vikander should be right on her tail.
Thomas LaTourette: This is a difficult category to choose a winner in. It would not surprise me if Alicia Vikander wins here, both as a testament for her work in Ex Machina as well as The Danish Girl, for which she is also nominated as Best Actress. However, she will face strong competition from Jennifer Jason Leigh who had the benefit of being the only actress in The Hateful Eight ensemble. She was memorable in the role and will benefit from the visibility, but I think the voters may give this to Vikander as a semi-consolation prize. This will be one of the tightest races of the night.

Best Screenplay

The Big Short (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
The Hateful Eight (RU:Tripp)
Room (RU:Peter)
Spotlight (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Steve Jobs

Wesley Lovell: The dominant screenplay this year is Spotlight I see a few scenarios where it doesn’t win, but it can’t go home empty-handed and this is the only other place besides Best Director to honor the film.
Peter J. Patrick: Spotlight should take this one easily. Either The Big Short or Room, both of which have Best Picture nods, could upset.
Tripp Burton: Spotlight is the safest bet here, if only because it may not win anything else and its writing is its most heralded aspect. Globes favorites Aaron Sorkin and Quentin Tarantino are in here, though, so never count the Globes out of wanting to get a big-name writer on that stage to accept an award.
Thomas LaTourette: Serious dramas tend to do better than comedies, and the well written film on investigative journalism should fairly easily triumph over The Big Short. The latter has the showier script, but I don’t think that will be enough to propel it to a win. Spotlight should prevail, though it is only likely to win here and for Best Picture, Drama.

Best Original Score

Carol (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
The Danish Girl (RU:Tripp)
The Hateful Eight (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas)
The Revenant (RU:Peter)
Steve Jobs

Wesley Lovell: Ennio Morricone begins his steamroll to the Oscars here. If he loses, then his Oscar chances may wither a bit. It’s almost impossible to choose one of the others as a runner-up, though.
Peter J. Patrick: On the theory that Carol has to win something, I think this is the something. If there is an upset, the Oscar-ineligible score for The Revenant could be the one.
Tripp Burton: This is always the most wildly unpredictable Globes category, but the presence of legendary Ennio Morricone, returning to the Western genre, should be too much for the Globes to ignore.
Thomas LaTourette: This would seem to be a race mostly between the old master Ennio Morricone’s return to a western score and Carter Burwell’s more sedate score for Carol. I did not find the score of The Hateful Eight all that memorable, but I think it stands the better chance of winning.

Best Song

Love Me Like You Do – Fifty Shades of Grey (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
One Kind of Love – Love & Mercy (Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
See You Again – Furious 7 (Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Simple Song #3 – Youth
Writing’s on the Wall – Spectre (RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Without Lady Gaga among the nominees, I don’t really know which directly the HFPA will go. “See You Again” seems like an obvious choice with its sentimental association and the blockbuster nature of the film itself.
Peter J. Patrick: The Oscar-ineligible “One Kind of Love” should prevail, but the catchy “Love Me Like You Do” from the wretched Fifty Shades of Grey could surprise.
Tripp Burton: Go for the biggest stars in this category, so I’m banking on either Brian Wilson or Sam Smith to take the prize.
Thomas LaTourette: “One Kind of Love” was named ineligible for an Oscar, but I think the HFPA will jump at the chance to honor Brian Wilson with an award. The most likely competition will come from “See You Again,” which was done as a tribute to Paul Walker, though I think that Brian Wilson should be readying his acceptance speech.

Best Foreign Language Film

The Brand New Testament – Belgium / France / Luxembourg
The Club – Chile
The Fencer – Finland / Germay / Estonia (RU:Tripp)
Mustang – France (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Son of Saul – Hungary (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Wesley Lovell: This is Son of Saul‘s to lose. If any group will bypass the film to upend the conversation, it’s the HFPA.
Peter J. Patrick: It would be a shock if the critically acclaimed Son of Saul failed to win here. Mustang is a long-shot runner-up.
Tripp Burton: Son of Saul has racked up a lot of accolades and I don’t see it missing the Globes.
Thomas LaTourette: Son of Saul has set itself up as the film to beat in this category. It has won more precursor awards than all of the other films combined, and none of those are nominated against it here. Mustang will be its strongest competitor, but the Holocaust drama should easily win here.