The Screen Actors Guild Awards are this weekend and either they’ll complicate the Best Picture and acting races or they’ll solidify support behind a particular title. That’s what we’re going to be looking for in the winners this weekend. It’s the second of the most influential guild awards to announce, so it may give us some instruction into what might fuel the Oscar machine for the next four weeks.

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS

Best Cast

Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short (Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Spotlight (Peter, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Straight Outta Compton
Trumbo

Wesley Lovell: This will be the fight everyone is watching in great detail. The SAG ensemble award has only been correct 50% of the time, predicting the Oscar winner 7 out of 14 times. That’s not a very good track record. Even going back only ten years, five of the selections have matched the Oscars. Yet, in a wide-open race, this selection could add weight to the winner’s chances. The Big Short has a larger, more recognizable cast than Spotlight, which might give it an edge here. It’s also been gaining momentum this season and needs this award to push past the soft-frontrunner status it currently holds. It’s also a do-or-die moment for Spotlight This is the film’s last chance to earn a major accolade before the big contest and if it can’t secure it, its fate may be decided. It could still win, but even a late-breaking film like Argo, which didn’t even have a Best Director nomination, managed to win this category with an even less familiar cast on board.
Peter J. Patrick: Spotlight and The Big Short have the best ensembles as well as being the only two Oscar nominees for Best Picture in this category. One of them will win for sure.
Tripp Burton: Again, we only have two Oscar nominees in the category (Spotlight and The Big Short), and one of them will take the prize. Both are big ensemble pieces filled with a myriad of character actors doing some of their best work. My guess is that the more traditional acting of Spotlight wins here, but it will be neck-and-neck until the envelope is opened.
Thomas LaTourette: Even though Spotlight has not done that well with precursor awards so far, this feels like a safe bet as it really was an actor’s movie. It is populated by a cast of well known faces who have toiled for years in the industry and they all created very strong characters. The Big Short, following the PGA win, is rather the movie of the moment and also boasts a larger cast. However, I think it will come up slightly short and Spotlight will win. This is not necessarily a full precursor to the Oscar, but it will probably muddy the pool a bit more with no film strongly in the lead there.

Best Actor

Bryan Cranston – Trumbo (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Johnny Depp – Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl

Wesley Lovell: This is Leo’s to lose and considering all the clamor over this performance in particular, I doubt very much that anyone can top him.
Peter J. Patrick: DiCaprio is the odds-on favorite to win everything this year. SAG is no exception.
Tripp Burton: I almost didn’t put a runner-up down because DiCaprio seems like such a foregone conclusion for the rest of awards season. If he loses, and a backlash starts, I’m not sure who would even pick up the pieces, but SAG really loves Bryan Cranston, so why not him?
Thomas LaTourette: This seems so assuredly to be going to DiCaprio, that it is hard to choose a runner-up. Both Michael Fassbender and Bryan Cranston have strong support for their performances, though I would give Cranston the slightly better chance of causing a major upset as Hollywood does like pictures about itself. That said, it is hard to imagine an upset occurring here and Leo should win in a walk.

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett – Carol
Brie Larson – Room (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Helen Mirren – Woman in Gold
Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Sarah Silverman – I Smile Back

Wesley Lovell: Another towering leader seems like a sure thing to win. Brie Larson has been cleaning up this season and I fully expect her to triumph here, but never underestimate the strength of Cate Blanchett, who is an acting legend, something akin to a modern Katharine Hepburn. Sarah Silverman doing comedy might also be an upset possibility. Going outside of your typical genre is a beloved pastime among actors. However, I think that if someone will dethrone Larson, it’s Ronan is absolutely luminous in Brooklyn. She has such a natural grace and charm that watching the film never becomes tiresome while she’s on screen.
Peter J. Patrick: Larson and Ronan are neck-and-neck. I’d be shocked it it were anyone else.
Tripp Burton: Brie Larson is starting to look like a solid contender to begin running the tables, mostly because she doesn’t have a clear-cut competitor. Cate Blanchett recently won here and is in a divisive film, Saorsie Ronan is in a film that has underperformed all season, and Helen Mirren and Sarah Silverman have not appeared anywhere else in the season.
Thomas LaTourette: Brie Larson has won the lion’s share of awards so far, and the trend should continue with a win here. It is a striking performance and she deserves all the accolades for it, but I would not mind an upset by the even younger Saorise Ronan who anchored Brooklyn so beautifully. That is unlikely to happen, so Larson will add another award to her collection.

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale – The Big Short (Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation (Wesley, RU:Peter)
Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies (Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Michael Shannon – 99 Homes
Jacob Tremblay – Room (Peter)

Wesley Lovell: This is a tough category to predict. Every actor on this list could conceivably triumph. It’s no surprise we are so evently split on the winner. I lean towards Idris Elba. Since SAG is comprised of members across multiple disciplines, they will recognize him well from his BBC series Luther. On top of that, this brouhaha at the Academy may cause several SAG voters to rally behind the non-Oscar nominee. However, let’s not discount his performance. He earned great critical acclaim and his omission was one of the genuine disappointments for many on Oscar Morning, so he could win based on sure quality of work, boosted by the other factors, rather than determined by them. This is a rarity for this group, who typically picks an Oscar nominee to award, which is why my runner-up bet is on Rylance. Bale already has prizes, I don’t see them giving him another unless they really love his film. Tremblay is a dark horse candidate for sure, but he wouldn’t be the first youth to win this award.
Peter J. Patrick: If SAG is going to pull a surprise this would be the category to do it with. Both Tremblay and Elba would certainly do that.
Tripp Burton: Only two of these nominees have Oscar nominations, so you would have to assume that one of them is going to win here. I have a hunch that the showier Christian Bale could sneak out a victory, especially as a way to honor the hot The Big Short. A non-Oscar nominee has never won an acting award at SAG, but could this be the year? Could all the talk of pushback over the racial breakdown of the Oscar nominees give Idris Elba a push? Could Brie Larson bring along Jacob Tremblay, especially after his hit speech at the Critics Choice Awards? In a year and a category where anything seems possible, I wouldn’t rule it out. But I’m not betting on it either.
Thomas LaTourette: Without the competition of Creed‘s Sylvester Stallone in this category, Mark Rylance should easily triumph for his quiet work in Bridge of Spies. Personally, I would not mind if the Oscars also went this way, but Stallone has been steadily building up support for his latest incarnation of Rocky. Without Stallone, Rylance’s major competition would be either Beasts of No Nation‘s Idris Elba or The Big Short‘s Christian Bale. Some support might be swinging towards Elba after his snub at the Oscars, but Bale is probably the more likely one to pull an upset. This one likely still will go to Rylance.

Best Supporting Actress

Rooney Mara – Carol (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Rachel McAdams – Spotlight
Helen Mirren – Trumbo
Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs (RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: I think it’s pretty even money that this race will come down to the indisputable leads being slummed in Supporting Actress. I was initially toying with giving Mara this award, but after the banner year Alicia Vikander has had, I suspect her more recognizable face name might give her an added boost. I still think this one will go down to the wire, though, which means any of the others could swoop in for a victory.
Peter J. Patrick: Category fraud or not, Vikander and Mara seem to be the frontrunners here.
Tripp Burton: Another category that is all over the place and without a clear winner. Kate Winslet won the Golden Globe, but she is the biggest star on this list and she didn’t have Alicia Vikander or Rooney Mara to compete against. I’m going Vikander here, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see anyone on that stage.
Thomas LaTourette: This looks to be a competition between two women who are nominated in the wrong category. Both Vikander and Mara should have been up as lead actress rather than as supporting. The other three nominees are true supporting roles, but they will not have much of a chance to win, though Kate Winslet’s surprise win at the Golden Globes has put her in the discussion. However, competing against two actresses who have much more screen time will put her at a disadvantage. Both Mara and Vikander are very good in their roles and it is hard to pick who stands the best chance of winning. I will go with Vikander because her character has the larger story arc and also because of the work she did in other movies this year. This will be the closest of any of the races and could easily go to either one.

Best Stunt Cast

Everest (RU:Peter)
Furious 7 (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation

Wesley Lovell: This is a tricky award to predict since it has such a short history and knowing precisely what the voters will pick is difficult. For the sheer audacity and gymnastic quality of the stunts in Mad Max: Fury Road, I have a hard time believing that anything else can topple it. Mission: Impossible seems built around that one massive stunt carried out on the plane that was so prominently featured in ads. Granted, this was done by the star and not a stuntman, so that might work against it. Ultimately, I think Furious 7 relies more on the capabilities of stuntmen, so I believe it might be the beneficiary if Mad Max doesn’t triumph.
Peter J. Patrick: I’d vote for Everest, but the majority will probably go with the Mad Max fourquel.
Tripp Burton: The sheer number of stunts in Mad Max, the practicality of the stunt work, and the belovedness for the film in many circles, should give it an easy win here.
Thomas LaTourette: The Mad Max: Fury Road stunt cast should easily win here as they have been justly lauded for the daring work they did. Knowing that all, or at least most, of the movie was done without green screen effects and CGI will sway the voters to reward this film. Of the remaining movies, Furious 7 probably has the most support for their over-the-top effects, but it is difficult to imagine anything but Mad Max winning.