Largely uncharacteristic of the Academy’s nominations selections, the WGA does a better job selecting winners, at least when they’ve nominated the future Oscar winner. This year shouldn’t be an exception as the lead contenders are all Oscar nominees with the lone exception of Steve Jobs.

WRITERS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS

Best Original Screenplay

Bridge of Spies (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Sicario
Spotlight (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Straight Outta Compton (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Trainwreck

Wesley Lovell: Two films on this list aren’t Oscar nominees: Sicario and Trainwreck. Neither were Oscar contenders in the first place. Of the two films not nominated by WGA, Ex Machina and Inside Out, their chances are quite good with the Oscars. The big question here will be whether the WGA will try to make a statement regarding diversity and hand Straight Outta Compton the award or if conventional wisdom will lead to an expected win for Spotlight.
Peter J. Patrick: The meticulously researched and thrilling screenplay for Spotlight should win this with the almost equally well researched and thrilling screenplay for Bridge of Spies a worthy alternative.
Tripp Burton: Spotlight in this category seems like one of the surest bets of the Awards season, both because of the strengths of the screenplay and a place to honor the film in general. If it loses here, it would be because the conversation in Hollywood has moved the focus to Straight Outta Compton.
Thomas LaTourette: It still feels like this is Spotlight’s to lose, even though momentum of the film has fallen off. It was a brilliant study in investigative journalism and it should easily win. Ordinarily I would have put Bridge of Spies in second, but with all the comments about the all-white Oscars, Straight Outta Compton probably has gotten more press lately and would be the most likely to pull the upset.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Big Short (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Carol (RU:Peter)
The Martian
Steve Jobs (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Trumbo

Wesley Lovell: While most were certain Trumbo, a movie about a famed Hollywood writer, wouldn’t make the cut with the Academy, but Steve Jobs was thought to surely be a contender. In the end, both were left off for the more subdued Brooklyn and the Best Picture nominee Room. Steve Jobs is still a contender here, but the focus is on late-breaking hit The Big Short, which is currently chugging away towards a potential Best Picture upset. Yet, this group may not appreciate comedy nearly as much as they appreciate a major big wig in the screenwriting game, which is why I give runner-up to Steve Jobs.
Peter J. Patrick: Personally I’d like to see Carol take this, but I think the momentum is with The Big Short.
Tripp Burton: As The Big Short rises in popularity, it seems like the clever screenplay at the center of it should pick up some awards pretty easily. Aaron Sorkin is always a popular option, Oscar nomination or not, and could be lurking to be a dark horse winner, though.
Thomas LaTourette: Steve Jobs had a very literate screenplay, but Aaron Sorkin’s magic did not hold out and the movie was a bust. It still stands a chance to win, but the more recently opened The Big Short has a lot better word of mouth and much better box office, so it should win. I could imagine it being a close race, but Steve Jobs is seemingly not on people’s radar anymore and The Big Short is, which will help it win.

Documentary Screenplay

Being Canadian
Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Kurt Cobain: Montage of Heck (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Prophet’s Prey (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: It might not be the fashionable choice among Scientologists, but Going Clear is a typically well researched doc by a legend in the business, which should give it an edge. I’m not sure what else could win, so I’m giving the edge to Prophet’s Prey, though it really is anyone’s game.
Peter J. Patrick: I have no idea what they’re going for here but I think one of the two HBO docs is going to take it.
Tripp Burton: Alex Gibney’s praised Going Clear has been surprisingly absent from a lot of these races, possibly because of pressure from the Hollywood Scientology community, but without another big-name competitor in the race, it will probably pick up this award. Watch out for Prophet’s Prey, though, which is very well written and could prove a competitor if it is seen by enough voters.