As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

In our first predictions of 2018 following almost all of the critics awards, we look at a more informed ballot based on what’s trending up, what’s trending down, and what might be coming out of left field. While these predictions were largely made prior to the American Cinema Editors nominations yesterday, Thomas turned his in late, so may have been a bit influenced there. Otherwise, these are largely free of guild influence. These will also be our penultimate predictions. We’ll have one last batch of predictions, our final nominations predictions, on the Monday before Oscar nominations are announced.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: A lot of films have risen and fallen throughout precursor season and while I’m not sold on 100% of these and, while putting together the whole of the post, I may have already decided to change a few, these are getting close to my final predictions. We’ll see how the guilds go as they may just throw a monkey wrench in the whole thing.
Peter J. Patrick: No commentary provided.
Tripp Burton: No commentary provided.
Thomas LaTourette: I did not expect to change so many predictions, but I did in all but four categories. I imagine that I will be changing them some more in the next couple weeks. There still is not a true frontrunner in most categories, which is odd just before the nominations are announced. This has been one of the most difficult years to predict, and I think it will stay that way.

Best Picture

• The Big Sick (TB Ja) [New] (TL Ja)
• Call Me By Your Name (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Darkest Hour (WL O) (PP O) (TB Ja) (TL J)
• Dunkirk (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Florida Project (WL Ja) [New] (PP F) (TB D)
• Get Out (WL F) (PP N) (TB Oc) (TL Oc)
• Lady Bird (WL D) (PP Oc) (TB N) (TL N)
• Mudbound (TL O)
• Phantom Thread (WL O) (PP L)
• The Post (WL O) (PP A) (TB L) (TL O)
• The Shape of Water (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (WL D) (PP Oc) (TB N) (TL Oc)

Best Animated Feature

• The Boss Baby (TL Ja) [New]
• The Breadwinner (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Coco (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Despicable Me 3 (WL O)
• Ferdinand (PP Ja) (TB Ja) [New]
• The Girl Without Hands (TB O)
• The Lego Batman Movie (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL Oc)
• Loving Vincent (WL Ja) [New] (PP D) (TL O)

Best Director

• Call Me By Your Name – Luca Guadagnino (PP O)
• Dunkirk – Christopher Nolan (WL O) (PP O) (TB A) (TL O)
• Get Out – Jordan Peele (WL Ja) [New] (TB D) (TL Ja) [New]
• Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig (WL Ja) [New] (PP D) (TB D) (TL Ja) [New]
• The Post – Steven Spielberg (WL O) (TB L) (TL D)
• The Shape of Water – Guillermo Del Toro (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Martin McDonagh (PP Oc)

Best Actor

• Timothee Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name (WL D) (PP O) (TB F) (TL N)
• Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread (WL O) (PP L) (TB O) (TL O)
• James Franco – The Disaster Artist (TB Ja) [New] (TL Ja) [New]
• Tom Hanks – The Post (WL D)
• Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out (WL Ja) [New]
• Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PP Ja) (TL Ja)

Best Actress

• Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul (PP O)
• Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
• Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outiide Ebbing, Missouri (WL O) (PP O) (TB Oc) (TL J)
• Margot Robbie – I, Tonya (WL N) (TB Oc) (TL N)
• Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird (WL N) (PP Oc) (TB N) (TL N)
• Meryl Streep – The Post (WL O) (PP D) (TB L) (TL O)

Best Supporting Actor

• Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project (WL Oc) (PP F) (TB Oc) (TL F)
• Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name (WL O) (PP Oc) (TL A)
• Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (WL Ja) [New] (TB Ja) [New] (TL Ja) [New]
• Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water (PP Ja) (TB N) (TL D)
• Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (WL F) (PP F) (TB F) (TL F)
• Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me By Your Name (WL Ja) [New] (PP O) (TB D)

Best Supporting Actress

• Mary J. Blige – Mudbound (WL Ja) [New] (TL Ja)
• Hong Chau – Downsizing (WL Ja) [New] (PP Ja) (TB D) [New] (TL Ja)
• Holly Hunter – The Big Sick (WL D) (PP Ja) (TB D) (TL D)
• Allison Janney – I, Tonya (WL Oc) (PP Oc) (TB F) (TL Oc)
• Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird (WL F) (PP F) (TB Oc) (TL Oc)
• Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water (PP Ja) (TB Oc)

Best Original Screenplay

• The Big Sick (TB Ja) (TL D)
• Get Out (WL O) (PP F) (TB Oc) (TL O)
• The Greatest Showman
• Lady Bird (WL N) (PP N) (TB D) (TL N)
• Phantom Thread (WL Ja) [New]
• The Post (PP Ja)
• The Shape of Water (WL F) (PP F) (TB Ja) (TL F)
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (WL D) (PP O) (TB N) (TL O)

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Call Me By Your Name (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Disaster Artist (WL Ja) [New] (TB D) (TL D)
• Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PP F)
• Last Flag Flying (PP O)
• Molly’s Game (WL F) (PP N) (TB F) (TL O)
• Mudbound (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Wonder (WL D) (PP Ja) [New] (TB N) (TL Ja) [New]

Best Original Song

• Come Alive – The Greatest Showman (TB O) [New]
• Evermore – Beauty and the Beast (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Mighty River – Mudbound (WL O) [New]
• Mystery of Love – Call Me by Your Name (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Prayers for This World – Cries form Syria (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New]
• Remember Me – Coco (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Stand Up for Something – Marshall (TL O) [New]
• This Is Me – The Greatest Showman (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TL O) [New]

Best Original Score

• Blade Runner 2049 (WL O) (PP O)
• Darkest Hour (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Dunkirk (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Greatest Showman (PP O)
• Phantom Thread (WL Ja) [New] (TL Ja) [New]
• The Post (TB D) (TL D)
• The Shape of Water (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL D)
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi (TB O)

Best Film Editing

• Blade Runner 2049 (WL O)
• Darkest Hour (PP O)
• Dunkirk (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Get Out (WL Ja) [New] (TB D) (TL Ja) [New]
• Lady Bird (TB D)
• The Post (WL O) (PP Ja) [New] (TB O) (TL D)
• The Shape of Water (WL N) (PP O) (TB O) (TL N)
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PP N) (TL D)

Best Cinematography

• Blade Runner 2049 (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Call Me By Your Name (WL Ja) [New] (PP Oc)
• Darkest Hour (PP O) (TB Ja) (TL O)
• Dunkirk (WL Ja) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Lost City of Z (WL Ja) [New]
• Mudbound (TB D)
• The Post (TL Ja) [New]
• The Shape of Water (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Best Production Design

• Beauty and the Beast (WL O) (PP D) (TL D)
• Blade Runner 2049 (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Darkest Hour (TB O) (TL O)
• Dunkirk (WL Ja) [New] (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Greatest Showman (WL O) (PP O)
• Phantom Thread
• The Shape of Water (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi (TB O)

Best Costume Design

• Beauty and the Beast (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Darkest Hour (PP O) (TL O)
• The Greatest Showman (WL O) (PP N) (TB O)
• Murder on the Orient Express (TB O)
• Phantom Thread (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Shape of Water (WL O) (TL D)
• Victoria and Abdul (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• Bright (WL Ja) [New]
• Darkest Hour (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 (TB Ja) [New] (TL Ja) [New]
• I, Tonya (PP Ja) [New] (TL O)
• Wonder (WL O) (PP Ja) [New] (TB O)

Best Sound Mixing

• Baby Driver (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Beauty and the Beast (WL O) [New]
• Blade Runner 2049 (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Dunkirk (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• The Greatest Showman (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New]
• The Shape of Water (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PP O) [New] (TL O) [New]

Best Sound Editing

• Baby Driver (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Blade Runner 2049 (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Dunkirk (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• The Shape of Water (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• War for the Planet of the Apes (WL O) [New]

Best Visual Effects

• Blade Runner 2049 (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Dunkirk (WL O) (PP O) (TL N)
• Okja (TB Ja) [New]
• The Shape of Water (WL F) (PP Ja) [New] (TB Oc) (TL F)
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• War for the Planet of the Apes (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Best Foreign Language Film

• A Fantastic Woman (WL O) (PP Ja) [New] (TB Ja) [New] (TL O)
• Foxtrot (WL Ja) [New] (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• In the Fade (WL Ja) [New] (PP O)
• The Insult (PP Ja) [New] (TB O) (TL Ja) [New]
• Loveless (WL O) (TL Ja) [New]
• The Square (WL O) (PP Ja) [New] (TB O) (TL O)
• The Wound (TB Ja) [New]

Best Documentary Feature

• Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (TB O) [New]
• Chasing Coral (WL O) [New]
• City of Ghosts (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Faces Places (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Human Flow (WL O) [New]
• Icarus (PP O) [New]
• An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (WL O) [New]
• Jane (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• LA 9 (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Last Men in Aleppo (PP O) [New]
• Strong Island (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]