Our contributors have been hard at work assessing the nominations and deciding just which films and individuals have the best chances at winning. Below are our first post-nominations predictions.

Looking over what we’ve predicted to start, we have agreed on the winner in nine categories out of twenty-four. We have completely different takes on Production Design, however, each choosing a different winner. What’s most interesting about our consensus winner selections is just how often we were incredibly far apart on the runners-up.

We will begin our traditional Rundown series starting on February 1, which will go over each category individually with only the documentary categories and short film categories being combined into a single post. After we complete the Rundown series the week before Oscar night, we’ll announce our final predictions in all categories. Stay tuned.

KEY:

Best Picture

• Call Me By Your Name
• Darkest Hour
• Dunkirk
• Get Out
• Lady Bird
• Phantom Thread
• The Post
• The Shape of Water (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PP O) [New]

Runners Up

• The Shape of Water (PP O) [New]
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]

Best Animated Feature

• The Boss Baby
• The Breadwinner
• Coco (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Ferdinand
• Loving Vincent

Runners Up

• The Breadwinner (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Loving Vincent (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New]

Best Director

• Dunkirk – Christopher Nolan
• Get Out – Jordan Peele
• Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig
• Phantom Thread – Paul Thomas Anderson
• The Shape of Water – Guillermo Del Toro (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]

Runners Up

• Dunkirk – Christopher Nolan (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig (PP O) [New]

Best Actor

• Timothée Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name
• Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
• Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
• Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Runners Up

• Timothée Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New](TL O) [New]
• Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out (TB O) [New]

Best Actress

• Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
• Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outiide Ebbing, Missouri (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
• Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
• Meryl Streep – The Post

Runners Up

• Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water (WL O) [New](TL O) [New]
• Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New]

Best Supporting Actor

• Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
• Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
• Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World
• Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]

Runners Up

• Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World (PP O) [New]

Best Supporting Actress

• Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
• Allison Janney – I, Tonya (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread
• Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird (PP O) [New]
• Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water

Runners Up

• Allison Janney – I, Tonya (PP O) [New]
• Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]

Best Original Screenplay

• The Big Sick
• Get Out (WL O) [New]
• Lady Bird (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• The Shape of Water
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PP O) [New]

Runners Up

• Get Out (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Lady Bird (PP O) [New]
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (WL O) [New]

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Call Me By Your Name (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• The Disaster Artist
• Logan
• Molly’s Game
• Mudbound

Runners Up

• Logan (PP O) [New]
• Molly’s Game (WL O) [New]
• Mudbound (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]

Best Original Score

• Dunkirk (PP O) [New]
• Phantom Thread
• The Shape of Water (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Runners Up

• Dunkirk (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New]
• Phantom Thread (TL O) [New]
• The Shape of Water (PP O) [New]

Best Original Song

• Mighty River – Mudbound
• Mystery of Love – Call Me by Your Name
• Remember Me – Coco (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New]
• Stand Up for Something – Marshall
• This Is Me – The Greatest Showman (TL O) [New]

Runners Up

• Mighty River – Mudbound (WL O) [New]
• Mystery of Love – Call Me by Your Name (PP O) [New]
• Remember Me – Coco (TL O) [New]
• This Is Me – The Greatest Showman (TB O) [New]

Best Film Editing

• Baby Driver
• Dunkirk (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• I, Tonya
• The Shape of Water
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Runners Up

• Baby Driver (WL O) [New]
• The Shape of Water (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]

Best Cinematography

• Blade Runner 2049 (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New](TL O) [New]
• Darkest Hour
• Dunkirk
• Mudbound (TB O) [New]
• The Shape of Water

Runners Up

• Blade Runner 2049 (TB O) [New]
• Dunkirk (PP O) [New]
• The Shape of Water (WL O) [New](TL O) [New]

Best Production Design

• Beauty and the Beast (PP O) [New]
• Blade Runner 2049 (TL O) [New]
• Darkest Hour (TB O) [New]
• Dunkirk
• The Shape of Water (WL O) [New]

Runners Up

• Beauty and the Beast (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New]
• The Shape of Water (PP O) [New](TL O) [New]

Best Costume Design

• Beauty and the Beast (WL O) [New]
• Darkest Hour
• Phantom Thread (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• The Shape of Water
• Victoria & Abdul

Runners Up

• Beauty and the Beast (PP O) [New]
• Darkest Hour (TB O) [New]
• Phantom Thread (WL O) [New]
• The Shape of Water (TL O) [New]

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• Darkest Hour (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Victoria & Abdul
• Wonder

Runners Up

• Victoria & Abdul (WL O) [New]
• Wonder (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]

Best Sound Mixing

• Baby Driver (PP O) [New]
• Blade Runner 2049
• Dunkirk (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• The Shape of Water
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Runners Up

• Baby Driver (TB O) [New]
• Blade Runner 2049 (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New]
• The Shape of Water (TL O) [New]

Best Sound Editing

• Baby Driver (PP O) [New]
• Blade Runner 2049
• Dunkirk (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• The Shape of Water
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Runners Up

• Blade Runner 2049 (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New](TL O) [New]
• The Shape of Water (TB O) [New]

Best Visual Effects

• Blade Runner 2049 (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New](TL O) [New]
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
• Kong: Skull Island
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi
• War for the Planet of the Apes (TB O) [New]

Runners Up

• Kong: Skull Island (TB O) [New]
• War for the Planet of the Apes (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New](TL O) [New]

Best Foreign Language Film

• A Fantastic Woman (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• The Insult
• Loveless
• On Body and Soul
• The Square (PP O) [New]

Runners Up

• The Insult (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Loveless (WL O) [New]

Best Documentary Feature

• Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
• Faces Places (WL O) [New](TL O) [New]
• Icarus
• Last Men in Aleppo (PP O) [New]
• Strong Island (TB O) [New]

Runners Up

• Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (WL O) [New]
• Icarus (PP O) [New](TL O) [New]
• Last Men in Aleppo (TB O) [New]

Best Documentary Short Subject

• Edith + Eddie (TB O) [New]
• Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405 (PP O) [New]
• Heroin(e) (WL O) [New](TL O) [New]
• Knife Skills
• Traffic Stop

Runners Up

• Edith + Eddie (TL O) [New]
• Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405 (WL O) [New]
• Heroin(e) (TB O) [New]
• Traffic Stop (PP O) [New]

Best Animated Short Film

• Dear Basketball (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New]
• Garden Party
• Lou (WL O) [New](TL O) [New]
• Negative Space
• Revolting Rhymes

Runners Up

• Dear Basketball (TL O) [New]
• Garden Party (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New]
• Lou (TB O) [New]

Best Live-Action Short Film

• DeKalb Elementary (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• The Eleven O’Clock
• My Nephew Emmett
• The Silent Child
• Watu Wote / All of Us

Runners Up

• The Eleven O’Clock (TL O) [New]
• My Nephew Emmett (PP O) [New]
• The Silent Child (WL O) [New]
• Watu Wote / All of Us (TB O) [New]