In the last of the Big Three guilds (after the Screen Actors Guild and Producers Guild of America), we may either find the Oscar race drawing to a close or tightening up. Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water needs to win in order to push that PGA victory towards an Oscar one. If Martin McDonagh wins, then Three Billboards shifts closer to a Best Picture Oscar victory off the back of its SAG win. If something else wins, the tension will be palpable going into the Oscar race with either the PGA, SAG, or DGA winner a potential champion.

DIRECTORS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS

Best Direction

Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Jordan Peele – Get Out

Wesley Lovell: All season, two directors have been foremost in the minds of prognosticators. First, it was Christopher Nolan, now it’s Guillermo del Toro. I would be surprised if anyone other than these two win, but unless it’s Jordan Peele or Greta Gerwig, I think there might be some major complaints.
Peter J. Patrick: An interesting group of nominees this year, with four-time nominee Christopher Nolan facing four first-time nominees, of whom Guillermo del Toro is the veteran. Any one of the nominees could win, but I suspect del Toro with his character-driven sci-fi period film, will win with Nolan’s epic, if emotionless, direction of Dunkirk coming in second.
Tripp Burton: As up in the air as Best Picture may seem right now, Guillermo del Toro seems on track to pick up Best Director both here and at the Oscars. He is well-loved around Hollywood and Shape of Water is both a personal vision and a technical achievement. His biggest competition is probably Christopher Nolan, who also feels due for a big award in his career and who had a giant epic to helm. The other three smaller films are slightly dwarfed in this race, but any of them could win.
Thomas LaTourette: Guillermo del Toro easily should win this award. Of course, a couple of months ago I would have said the same about Christopher Nolan, but he has definitely dropped to number two on my list. Nolan’s film was a brilliant feat of directing with fast edits and striking effects. However, I found The Shape of Water to be a much more human movie with characters that one cares about, and that should cement its win. The Shape of Water has been a critical and popular movie and easily led the list of Oscar nominees which should also bolster its chances for a win. There are a couple of scenarios where neither wins, though I find that unlikely. Gerta Gerwig could be well placed to ride the #metoo tide, but I am not sure there will be enough women in the Directors Guild for that to happen. The other could be a backlash against Martin McDonagh not receiving an Oscar nomination. This propelled Ben Affleck to a win for Argo a few years back, but I doubt that McDonagh has the same name recognition as Affleck for that to happen. Guillermo del Toro should win.

Best First Feature

Geremy Jasper – Patti Cake$
William Oldroyd – Lady Macbeth
Jordan Peele – Get Out (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Taylor Sheridan – Wind River (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Aaron Sorkin – Molly’s Game (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Only one of these five is an Oscar nominee for Best Direction as well as a nominee in the standard field. I think they’ll give Jordan Peele this award so as to avoid giving it to him in the main category. If Aaron Sorkin or Taylor Sheridan win, distant possibilities each, then Peele may just win the big award, which would be astounding.
Peter J. Patrick: With the year-long popularity of Get Out, and his nomination among the Best Director nominees as well, this should be an easy win for Jordan Peele. The only one who comes close in terms of quality of production in my estimation is Taylor Sheridan, who is my selection for runner-up for the under-valued Wind River.
Tripp Burton: There isn’t any real question of who wins this, is there?
Thomas LaTourette: Seeing that Jordan Peele was also nominated for Best Director, he should easily win here as he will not there. Get Out has been a very talked about film, and still is in the public’s consciousness months after it was released. It would be surprising if it didn’t win. I have heard good things about Wind River, but its quiet release does not bode well for winning. Screenwriter Aaron Sorkin’s Molly’s Game will probably finish a strong second, but I cannot see it displacing Get Out for the win.

Best Documentary Direction

Ken Burns & Lynn Novick – The Vietnam War (Thomas)
Bryan Fogel – Icarus (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Matthew Heineman – City of Ghosts (Peter, RU:Tripp)
Steve James – Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (Wesley)
Errol Morris – Wormwood (Tripp, RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: There are some major names here in the realm of documentary filmmaking: Errol Morris, Ken Burns (with Lynn Novick), and Steve James most specifically. While I hate to think of the DGA has playing favorites, they will probably pay favorites and pick one of the three. I lean towards Steve James since he is a long-unheralded legend. Errol Morris’ unique documentary might be attractive as well. Of course, if they go based on quality, anything could win, including the two acclaimed documentaries by Bryan Fogel or Matthew Heineman.
Peter J. Patrick: Unlike last year when there was an overwhelming favorite in this category, this is a tough one. I’ll take a guess and say former winner Matthew Heineman for City of Ghosts about the citizen journalists in Raqqa will win over Bryan Fogel’s uncovering of sports doping in Icacus.
Tripp Burton: This is a tough category to figure out, and the merging of TV and movies makes it even more muddled. There are three legends in this category — Errol Morris, Ken Burns, and Steve James — and they are all making their best regarded films in years. Matthew Heineman had a huge canvas to work on in City of Ghosts, while Bryan Fogel is front and center in his film and makes the work feel personal. Any of them could win, and this will be interesting to see play out.
Thomas LaTourette: Ken Burns and Lynn Novick will probably win as theirs is the longest of the documentaries. Since it was shown over several nights on television, it could be longer than most. Both Icarus and City of Ghosts have strong admirers, and might score an upset. In that case I would give it to the Oscar nominated Icarus, but I expect The Vietnam War to easily win.