The Writers Guild of America, in spite of its peculiar rules of eligibility, is the preeminent predictor of Oscar success. With a few exceptions, they will generally nominate the ultimate Oscar winner. Further, they are likely to also duplicate the selection or at least boost the potential of their winners to gain Oscar glory.

WRITERS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS

Best Original Screenplay

The Big Sick
Get Out (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
I, Tonya
Lady Bird (Peter, Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
The Shape of Water

Wesley Lovell: With Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri out of the running, this award comes down to Oscar nominees Get Out and Lady Bird. Both films have strong support among critics and writers, but only one of them can win. Working for Get Out is the fact that of all the awards it has won so far, Original Screenplay is the most common citation. What works against it is the genre, which rarely finds support among awards-giving bodies. That gives Lady Bird a chance to break out with a win. There are few categories at the Oscars where Greta Gerwig’s film could actively compete, so it’s possible this is the place the film gets recognized. That she’s a well known writer and actress in indie films, she could have built up enough admiration to take this in a walk. The competition will be tight, but I believe that the season-long love of Get Out will ultimately triumph.
Peter J. Patrick: This should be a close one, my instinct says Lady Bird with Get Out the spoiler.
Tripp Burton: This is one of the fiercest fights of the season, and Best Picture contenders Lady Bird, Get Out, and The Shape of Water all could win here and I wouldn’t be surprised. I’m guessing Lady Bird is the film that writers most gravitate to, but I could be wrong.
Thomas LaTourette: These are five strong choices, and that is leaving out Oscar nominee Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Although cases could be made for all of them, I, Tonya and The Big Sick probably have the weakest chances of winning. The Shape of Water was my favorite film of the year, but it does not seem to get much credit in the screenplay department, so it likely will not win here either. Get Out has by far the most precursor awards, almost four times as many as Lady Bird, but I am not certain that it is guaranteed the win. Greta Gerwig’s mother-daughter relationship film Lady Bird has tapped into the public consciousness and will be a strong contender. It might win, but I wonder if it will go to Get Out, which has stayed a contender despite such an early release last year. A win for either will help it in the race for Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars, but, without Three Billboards being a WGA nominee, we will still not have a clear frontrunner. This has proved one of the harder categories to call this year and a win for any film will not make it much clearer. Get Out will probably win, but an upset by Lady Bird would not be that surprising.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Call Me by Your Name (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly’s Game (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Mudbound (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: There really isn’t any competition here. James Ivory is a legend and he will most certainly win an Oscar this year with his first step being a win from the WGA. If there’s an upset, and it’s a long shot at best, Molly’s Game, written by fellow legendary writer Aaron Sorkin, could manage it, but I suspect he’s an also-ran this year simply because his directorial debut just hasn’t ignited the same kind of passion that Call Me by Your Name has.
Peter J. Patrick: I can’t see anything but Call Me by Your Name winning this one. Mudbound is probably its closest rival.
Tripp Burton: Call Me by Your Name is the most awarded screenplay here, and the legendary James Ivory, almost 90 years old, seems too great not to honor one last time.
Thomas LaTourette: If James Ivory wins both here and at the USC Scripter awards for his adaptation of Call Me by Your Name, he will definitely be the frontrunner for the Oscar. I think he is likely to win, but will have serious competition from both Mudbound and Molly’s Game. Both were well written and could score the upset, though I think it likely that Call Me by Your Name will win.

Documentary Screenplay

Betting on Zero
Jane (Wesley, Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
No Stone Unturned (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Oklahoma City (Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: I honestly don’t know what will win here. Jane was thought to be unbeatable and then it was left off the Oscar list. None of these titles is Oscar nominated, so it’s hard to be certain which has the best chance. I’ve gone with Jane, though any of the others could pull off a win.
Peter J. Patrick: I’m going to go with Jane here – everyone loves Jane (Goodall) and her chimps. I’m going to go with Alex Gibney’s meticulously researched No Stone Unturned as runner-up.
Tripp Burton: I have no idea how this will turn out. Any of them could win.
Thomas LaTourette: It is hard to bet against the most popular documentary of the year, but I am not sure that Jane will win this award. Reading about the different films, Oklahoma City sounds like the most interesting and intense one of the bunch. It sounds like the one that should win, though the feel good film about Jane Goodall could easily score the upset.