These were supposed to post two weeks ago, but things got in the way. Now, we’re looking at a few weeks of precursors informing our opinions, but getting ahead of the guilds.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: The fall festivals are over, most of the films have been seen, and the critics are giving out prizes. Things are finally solidifying. Now all we need are the guilds to weigh in and we’ll see a fairly clear picture.
Peter J. Patrick: Things are changing swiftly. The much-watched Golden Globes are almost upon us. No clarity yet.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary or revised predictions provided)
Thomas LaTourette: I really thought there would be more changes between the August predictions and now, but surprisingly there are not. The main differences are the dropping out of Bardo, The Son, and Triangle of Sadness from most categories. I had listed each of them as best picture possibilities, but no longer. They also lost some other noms for director, supporting actor and actress, and screenplay. Hugh Jackman is still tenuously placed for best actor and Triangle of Sadness for best original screenplay, but both might be bumped off by the next set of predictions. The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin are still the two films to beat in many categories, though neither is doing well at the box office. Truthfully, most of the films likely to pick up nominations have not been blockbusters, with the exceptions of Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and especially Top Gun: Maverick. The Fabelmans is still the frontrunner for picture and director, though it feels like a weak one for best picture. I am just not sure what might take its place. Tár might have won the New York Film Critics Circle for best picture, but it is a cold film that a lot if people will have trouble rooting for. There are still the somewhat unknowns of Babylon, Women Talking, Living, I Wanna Dance with Somebody, Avatar: The Way of Water, and Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, though I do not know if any of those would be poised to take the top spot.

The races for supporting actor and actress could prove the most interesting. Women Talking and Everything Everywhere All at Once both have two possible supporting actress nominees. Whereas The Banshees of Inisherin and The Fabelmans could bring two supporting actor noms each. It is fairly uncommon for there to be double nominees, so it will be interesting to see which, if any, of them pull it off. Women Talking and perhaps The Fabelmans seem the most likely to pull it off, though it is hard to know which actress from Everything Everywhere would not get a nomination while the other one does. I am rooting for Jamie Lee Curtis, though Stephanie Hsu was equally good. Another wrinkle could be whether Angela Bassett finally gets a second nomination for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. She was fiery in the role, but no one has ever been nominated for a role in a Marvel movie yet. I did not put her on my list yet as I am just not convinced that it is the type of film that will gather an acting nomination. The one obscure nom I will go out on a limb for is RRR for best directing. Even though India did not pick it for its nominee as best International Feature, the fact that it won for NYFCC award for best director makes me wonder how much support it has and whether it could get a spot for direction. Over the last four years, one nominee has been from a foreign language film, and this might be the one this year. It is only seven weeks until the nominations, so get out and see some movies!

Best Picture

• Avatar: The Way of Water New WL D New PP D TB A
• Babylon TB A TL O
• The Banshees of Inisherin WL A PP O New TL D
• Bardo TB A
• Elvis New WL D New PP D TL O
• Empire of Light TB A
• Everything Everywhere All at Once New WL D PP A TB A TL A
• The Fabelmans WL A PP O TB A TL O
• Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery New PP D
• She Said TB A TL O
• The Son TB A
• Tár New WL D PP A TL A
• Till New WL D TB A
• Top Gun: Maverick New WL D New PP D New TL D
• Triangle of Sadness New PP D
• White Noise TB A
• The Woman King WL O New TL D
• Women Talking New WL D PP O TL O

Best Animated Feature

• Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio New WL D PP O TB O TL O
• Marcel the Shell with Shoes On New WL D PP O TB O New TL D
• Puss in Boots: The Last Wish New WL D New PP D
• The Sea Beast TB O
• Strange World TB O TL O
• Turning Red WL O New PP D TB O TL O
• Wendell & Wild WL O PP O TL O

Best Director

• Avatar: The Way of Water – James Cameron New WL D
• Babylon – Damien Chazelle TB A
• The Banshees of Inisherin – Martin McDonagh New WL D PP O New TL D
• Broker – Hirokazu Kore-eda TB A
• Everything Everywhere All at Once – The Daniels New WL D TB A New TL D
• The Fabelmans – Steven Spielberg WL A PP O TB A TL O
• RRR – S.S. Rajamouli New TL D
• Tár – Todd Field New WL D PP A
• Till – Chinoye Chukwu TB A
• Triangle of Sadness – Ruben Ostlund New PP D
• Women Talking – Sarah Polley New PP D TL A

Best Actor

• Austin Butler – Elvis New WL D New PP D TB A TL A
• Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin WL A PP O New TL D
• Colin Firth – Empire of Light TB A
• Brendan Fraser – Whale WL A PP O TL O
• Hugh Jackman – The Son WL O PP O TB A TL O
• Bill Nighy – Living New WL D PP A TB A TL A
• Song Kang-ho – Broker TB A

Best Actress

• Cate Blanchett – Tár New WL D PP A TB A TL O
• Olivia Colman – Empire of Light WL O New PP D TB A
• Viola Davis – The Woman King WL O TL O
• Danielle Deadwyler – Till New WL D PP O TB A TL O
• Carey Mulligan – She Said TB A
• Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans New PP D New TL D
• Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once New WL D PP O TB A TL A

Best Supporting Actor

• Don Cheadle – White Noise TB A
• Paul Dano – The Fabelmans TB A TL O
• Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin WL A PP O TL A
• Woody Harrelson – Triangle of Sadness TB A
• Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway New WL D
• Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans New PP D New TL D
• Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time TB A
• Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin New PP D
• Brad Pitt – Babylon TB A
• Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once New WL D New PP D TL A
• Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse New WL D
• Ben Whishaw – Women Talking WL A New PP D New TL D

Best Supporting Actress

• Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever New WL D
• Jessie Buckley – Women Talking New WL D PP A TL O
• Hong Chau – The Whale New PP D
• Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin New WL D New PP D New TL D
• Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once New WL D New TL D
• Dolly De Leon – Triangle of Sadness New PP D
• Jennifer Ehle – She Said TB A
• Claire Foy – Women Talking New PP D New TL D
• Whoopi Goldberg – Till TB A
• Vanessa Kirby – The Son TB A
• Carey Mulligan – She Said WL A New TL D
• Jean Smart – Babylon TB A
• Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans TB A

Best Original Screenplay

• Babylon TB O
• The Banshees of Inisherin WL O New PP D New TL D
• Everything Everywhere All at Once New WL D PP O TB O TL O
• The Fabelmans New WL D PP O TB O TL O
• Tár New WL D PP O TB O TL O
• Till TB O
• Triangle of Sadness New PP D TL O
• The Woman King WL O

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery New WL D New PP D TB O New TL D
• Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio New WL D New PP D
• Living New WL D New TL D
• She Said WL O PP O TB O TL O
• The Son TB O
• The Whale New PP D New TL D
• White Noise TB O
• Women Talking New WL D PP O TB O TL O

Best Cinematography

• Avatar: The Way of Water New WL O New TL O
• Babylon New PP O New TL O
• Decision to Leave New PP O
• Empire of Light New WL O New PP O
• Everything Everywhere All at Once New WL O New TL O
• The Fabelmans New WL O New PP O New TL O
• Top Gun: Maverick New WL O New PP O New TL O