7 Days to Oscar Morning: Day 2

Posted

January 27, 2010

Wesley Lovell

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We’re taking a look today at the screenwriting awards (Adapted Screenplay & Original Screenplay) plus the races for Makeup and Visual Effects. This is our second day of seven covering all the categories leading up to the 82nd nominations on Tuesday morning, February 2, 2010.

Tomorrow, the Best Director category gets a work out along with Sound Mixing and Sound Editing.

Best Original Screenplay

(500) Days of Summer (Unanimous)
The Hurt Locker (Unanimous)
Inglourious Basterds (Unanimous)
A Serious Man (Unanimous)
Up (Unanimous)

Note: First of only four categories we are in complete agreement on.

Comments

Wesley Lovell: A solid bunch of Original Screenplay contenders often comes along with this group. Matter of fact, outside of a couple of instances in recent years, this category has been one of the easiest to predict. I place Avatar off the list despite a WGA nomination because the same thing happened to Titanic. Cameron received a nod from the Writers, but the Academy overlooked him. With the five we have listed being such a strong group and with two of them ineligible for WGA (Up & Inglourious Basterds), I don’t really see Avatar trumping either. Broken Embraces could also be a surprise nominee. Almodovar has done it before, but I don’t really think his film has nearly the support that Talk to Her had. Alternate Prediction: Avatar
Peter J. Patrick: “The Messenger” could pop up here, but I don’t know which film it could possibly supplant.
Tripp Burton: This seems like a pretty solid line-up. Pixar has been doing well in this category for a while, and the Best Picture front-runner status of The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds put them in the front of this horse race. (500) Days of Summer is the most original, and one of the most praised, screenplays of the year and should be able to pull in here, and the Coens are always popular with this branch. The only spoiler is Avatar, but even that film’s most adamant supporters don’t think much of that screenplay (and remember, Titanic missed out here). Alternate Prediction: Avatar
Wes Huizar: Alternate Prediction: Avatar

Best Adapted Screenplay

District 9 (Unanimous)
An Education (Peter, Tripp, Wes)
Fantastic Mr. Fox (Wesley, Tripp)
Precious (Unanimous)
A Single Man (Wesley, Peter, Wes)
Up in the Air (Unanimous)

Comments

Wesley Lovell: District 9 and Fantastic Mr. Fox were ineligible at the WGA. So, the category has been thrown into a type of tailspin when trying to pick the five. In addition to the five I cite, the suggestion of An Education is a strong one, but so to is Crazy Heart and the not-mentioned Where the Wild Things Are. Matter of fact, the only films in the above lineup that I consider safe bets for a nomination are Precious and Up in the Air. Any of the rest could be easily replaced with very little surprise from me. Alternate Prediction: An Education
Peter J. Patrick: Seems pretty solid to me.
Tripp Burton: A pretty wide-open race here, with just as many films holding out to sneak in here. Precious and Up in the Air should be solid picks here, but the other three slots are up for grabs. I think that An Education, District 9 and Fantastic Mr. Fox sneak in here on the strength of their supporters, but look for Crazy Heart, Julie & Julia, In the Loop or Star Trek to move in here, but I think those films have more detractors than the three named above. Alternate Prediction: Crazy Heart
Wes Huizar: Alternate Prediction: Crazy Heart

Best Makeup

District 9 (Unanimous)
Il Divo (Peter, Tripp)
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (Wesley, Tripp, Wes)
Star Trek (Wesley, Wes)
The Young Victoria (Peter)

Comments

Wesley Lovell: This is one of only four categories that don’t care whether the nominee is a crappy movie or not, as long as it has great prosthetic makeup. Matter of fact, a vast majority of the nominees this category sees are prosthetic jobs, which is why I give the edge to District 9, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus and Star Trek from the list of 7 finalists. Any of the rest could also feature here. Il Divo would be a surprise contender in some circles, but occasionally this group likes to nominate unusual choices. But, for me, I think The Young Victoria, with its vast amount of hairdos (the only thing really giving it any kind of consideration with this group), could very easily make it in like Elizabeth or Braveheart, but both of those films has makeup paint jobs in a few scenes, so it made more sense. The Road uses dirty makeup and prosthetics and would be a strong choice and even Night at the Museum 2 could play a role. It’s fairly close to call and this group can make anything happen. Alternate Prediction: The Road
Tripp Burton: District 9 and The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus are locks in this category, and most people see Star Trek as the third nominee. I am going out on a limb for Il Divo. For a foreign film to make this shortlist is quite an achievement (and much show some hard support from the branch), and this category has been known to make seemingly off-beat foreign choices before. Alternate Prediction: Star Trek
Wes Huizar: Alternate Prediction: The Road

Best Visual Effects

Avatar (Unanimous)
District 9 (Unanimous)
Star Trek (Unanimous)

Note: Second of only four categories we are in complete agreement on.

Comments

Wesley Lovell: Until recently, I considered 2012 a guaranteed nominee. It was in my predictions in place of Star Trek because I couldn’t imagine either Avatar or District 9 being excluded. However, with the strong showing of Star Trek in the end-of-year contests, I’ve been swayed to make it my prediction as well, but if there’s an upset, the strong effects of 2012 (one of the film’s only saving graces) are the most likely contenders. Alternate Prediction: 2012
Tripp Burton: They are the three biggest science-fiction films of the year, they are all the odd mix of critical praise and box office success, and they should all take this slate no problem. Alternate Prediction: Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Wes Huizar: Alternate Prediction: 2012

Comments

4 responses to “7 Days to Oscar Morning: Day 2”

Wesley Lovell

January 28, 2010

This is where I wished I knew what individual was being nominated. Had I known Greg Cannom was behind Night at the Museum, I might have picked him. Matter of fact, I still may change my prediction before Monday knowing that now. But I wonder if it’s Imaginarium we’ll see fall. It seems the most likely to get nominated based on the sheer amount of prosthetic work in it and Imaginarium seems cut from the same cloth as Baron Munchausen, so it’s possible.

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Hollywood Z

January 28, 2010

Regarding Make-Up, usually, the prestige of the film is enough for it to sneak in along with what accomplishments it made in the field (The Dark Knight or The Passion of the Christ). However, I think that it’s usually a pretty good indicator to look at who is being promoted for make-up:

– District 9: Richard Taylor (The Lord of the Rings trilogy)
– Il Divo: Aldo Signoretti (Moulin Rouge & Apocolypto) and Vittorio Sodano (Apocalypto)
– The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus: Sarah Monzani (De-Lovely, Quest for Fire)
– Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian: Greg Cannom (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, A Beautiful Mind, Bicentennial Man, Titanic, Roommates just to name a few of his more recent considerations)
– The Road: Toni G (Monster)
– Star Trek: Joel Harlow (Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest) and Barney Burnam (Tropic Thunder)
– The Young Victoria: Jenny Shircore (Elizabeth, Mrs. Henderson Presents)

District 9 is going to be the winner, if only because it has what the academy loves in prothstetic make-up: stages. After seeing District 9, I knew it was going to be a strong contendor for make-up, even if it is only one person the make-up’s being heavily attended to. Star Trek will sneak in because of the popularity of the movie and it’s reliance on make-up to create different alien races, though I wouldn’t be too terribly shocked if it doesn’t get nominated. That just leaves us with the troubled third nominee.

Il Divo’s team is strong and the make-up job is superb, but it’s lack of popularity will see it end up the way of The Libertine. The Young Victoria may lack the prothestetic work that the academy favors over really nice hair styles (like Mrs. Henderson Presents), so it’s chances aren’t very likely. That leaves us with the last two nominees. The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus had the heavy prothestetic work and just enough popularity, due to it being Heath Ledger’s last film. However, is it popular enough to get a nomination here where the only Terry Gilliam film to ever get a make-up nominationi was The Adventures of Baron Munchausen? I’m giving the slight edge to Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian because of the Academy’s Make-Up branch’s past history of nominating successful, yet dismissable films that happen to have stellar prothestetic work from a heavily pedigreeded make-up artist. In this case, enter Greg Cannom, who has always been nominated whenever one of his projects with his name on it is entered.

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Wesley Lovell

January 27, 2010

If the Academy nominates it at the expense of any of our three unanimous picks, we’ll all be bitching regardless of which film gets in (well, I’ll be happy if 2012 replaces the non-spectacular Star Trek, but I’m fairly alone in that).

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Nathan Donarum

January 27, 2010

I hope you’re wrong about your alternate prediction, Tripp. I truly hope you are. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen had some of the worst-used CGI I’ve ever seen in a big-budget film. If the Academy nominates it I’ll shake my head in shame. Haha.

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