As we head into the final stretch of our 7 Days to Oscar Morning coverage in anticipation of the Tuesday, February 2, 2010 morning announcements of the 82nd nominations, we’re getting into some of the most important categories. We start off today looking at Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress and follow that up with Original Score and Original Song categories. When we hit the ground running tomorrow, we’ll have the remaining acting prizes plus two of the most integral categories to Best Picture opportunities: Editing and Cinematography.

Best Supporting Actor

Woody Harrelson – The Messenger (Unanimous)
Christian McKay – Me & Orson Welles (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
Alfred Molina – An Education (Wes)
Christopher Plummer – The Last Station (Unanimous)
Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones (Unanimous)
Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds (Unanimous)

Comments

Wesley Lovell: There’s one name guaranteed to be on this list: Christoph Waltz. His exclusion would summon one of the biggest riots in years. After that, the water gets murkier. Woody Harrelson has held on strongly to his mentions, so I’m fairly certain he’ll be there. Christopher Plummer will likely reap a career accolade. Stanley Tucci still holds on to his spot despite the critical failure of The Lovely Bones. That leaves the fifth spot. Although he got very little attention from the precursors, I have a feeling that Christian McKay, who showed up at the BAFTA nominations, will pull the fifth slot for Me & Orson Welles. The Academy does love impressions, especially if they are good ones. But this is far from a solid slate. Matt Damon could emerge again for Invictus, though his film’s flopping may well doom his chances (that and the Academy has been trying to resist leads-in-support pushes, so he may be left off entirely. The performance I think that could make an appearance is Anthony Mackie. His film has been hanging on like mad for a film that barely made a smudge at the box office. If it’s as strong a Best Picture contender as it seems, Mackie, who’s gotten a lot of strong notices, could well make the cut. Alternate Prediction: Anthony Mackie – The Hurt Locker
Peter J. Patrick: I’d love to see Anthony Mackie nominated for The Hurt Locker, but he hasn’t been getting much traction so far this year. Still, all but Waltz and Harrelson are vulnerable, so maybe he does have a chance after all.  Though I would love to see Christopher Plummer finally getting a nod, I wouldn’t be as shocked to see him ignored as I was ten years ago when he was ignored for The Insider.  Alternate Prediction: Anthony Mackie – The Hurt Locker
Tripp Burton: Christoph Waltz and Woody Harrelson seem to me like the two locks in this category; their critically praised films and well-liked personalities are too much to resist. As for the rest, Christopher Plummer is near-guaranteed his first nomination, although we have thought that before and it has not panned out. Stanley Tucci seems to be the only thing holding on from the debacle that was The Lovely Bones, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see his nomination come from Julie & Julia instead. I think Christian McKay will surprise his way in here with a nomination as Oscar-winner Orson Welles, although Alfred Molina could muster his way in here too. Alternate Prediction: Alfred Molina – An Education
Wes Huizar: Alternate Prediction: Christian McKay – Me & Orson Welles

Best Supporting Actress

Penelope Cruz – Nine (Wesley)
Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air (Unanimous)
Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air (Unanimous)
Diane Kruger – Inglourious Basterds (Peter, Tripp)
Mo’Nique – Precious (Unanimous)
Julianne Moore – A Single Man (Wesley, Tripp, Wes)
Samantha Morton – The Messenger (Peter, Wes)

Comments

Wesley Lovell: The three locks in this category are the Up in the Air ladies (Farmiga and Kendrick) and Mo’Nique. So, not to waste time on them, let’s look at the remaining two spots. Despite its failures, Nine managed to earn Penelope Cruz a SAG nomination and the film got in at the PGA plus a few other tech guilds. While the film has continue to flop, Cruz has proven to be well liked with the Academy receiving an Oscar once and earning a surprise nomination before that. If she doesn’t appear here, it will be entirely Rob Marshall’s fault for not making a better movie. That fifth spot may well go to once-perennial Oscar nominee Julianne Moore who has failed to get nominated several times since. This time, she has a strong lead who’s a slam-dunk for a Best Actor nod, meaning her performance will have been seen, but that can also apply to Samantha Morton in The Messenger and Diane Kruger for Inglourious Basterds. Both are in the hunt and could figure here, but I think Moore, despite no SAG love, will still make it in. Though, also watch out for Marion Cotillard who’s been pushed as lead, but voters may recognize her in support and nominate her instead of Cruz. Alternate Prediction: Diane Kruger – Inglourious Basterds
Peter J. Patrick: Kruger is iffy but her spot-on Dietrich imitation worked at the SAG awards and it worked for Madeline Kahn in Blazing Saddles all those years ago, so I’m very much anticipating hearing her name.  Samantha Morton is also somewhat iffy but after being ignored two year ago for Control she would seem to be a bit due for her her first nomiantion since In America six years ago. Alternate Prediction: Melanie Laurent – Inglourious Basterds
Tripp Burton: There are three highly praised performances here that have been part of every Supporting Actress slate this year: Mo’Nique and the pair from Up in the Air, Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick. I don’t see any reason why they shouldn’t show up here for their first nominations. Julianne Moore’s powerhouse scene in A Single Man should carry over here with voters, especially those only now just catching up with the film late in the season. As for the fifth nomination, both Penelope Cruz and Diane Kruger have been picking up the fifth nominations. Cruz was the dominating one early in the season, especially off her win last year, but her film is fading fast while Kruger’s is picking up steam. I say Kruger sneaks in. Alternate Prediction: Penelope Cruz – Nine
Wes Huizar: Alternate Prediction: Diane Kruger – Inglourious Basterds

Best Original Score

Avatar (Unanimous)
Fantastic Mr. Fox (Wesley)
The Informant! (Unanimous)
Sherlock Holmes (Peter, Wes)
A Single Man (Unanimous)
Star Trek (Tripp)
Up (Unanimous)

Comments

Wesley Lovell: With so few films eligible, it should be easier to pick, but it isn’t. Avatar, Up and A Single Man seem to be the most cited films for the list (even from our group of prognosticators). We also think The Informant! is a good bet for a nomination, simply because the composer is a legend. That leaves the fifth slot which is easily debatable. Fantastic Mr. Fox’s score has gotten a lot of notice and being written by Alexander Desplat, who is quickly becoming one of the most prominent composer working today. I think Sherlock Holmes composer Hans Zimmer is a credible threat, but so too is legend Elliot Goldenthal for Public Enemies, a name I’m more likely to expect to see here than Zimmer’s. Of course, the Academy could be generous and give Michael Giacchino two nominations, but he’s no John Williams. Alternate Prediction: Public Enemies
Tripp Burton: Avatar’s blostering action score and Up’s animated grace should score here, while this branch will want to honor Marvin Hamlisch for his score to The Informant!. The score to A Single Man is becoming beloved in many circles and should show up here. As for the fifth nominee, I think the branch will go for the rousing orchestrations to Star Trek. Alternate Prediction: Sherlock Holmes
Wes Huizar: Alternate Prediction: Public Enemies

Best Original Song

“All Is Love” – Where the Wild Things Are (Unanimous)
“Almost There” – The Princess and the Frog (Wesley, Peter, Wes)
“Cinema Italiano” – Nine (Wesley, Tripp, Wes)
“Down in New Orleans” – The Princess and the Frog (Tripp)
“I See You” – Avatar (Tripp, Wes)
“(I Want To) Come Home” – Everybody’s Fine (Peter)
“Trust Me” – The Informant! (Wesley)
“The Weary Kind” – Crazy Heart (Unanimous)
“Winter” – Brothers (Peter)

Comments

Wesley Lovell: All of the song’s we’ve mentioned have a chance at a nomination. That “All Is Love” and “The Weary Kind” are the only ones we agree on says something about the wide-open nature of this group’s selection. Sometimes, they are all over the place. Sometimes they pick only three when there are good, eligible songs they’ve ignored, so anything really is possible. “Almost There” will appeal to the Disney traditionalists that made the Enchanted songs so popular. And, it’s a song of hope and they love that stuff. “Trust Me” from The Informant! is written not only by legendary composer Marvin Hamlisch and songwriters Alan and Marilyn Bergman, one of the most successful songwriting teams in Oscar history. If they don’t make the cut, I’ll be surprised. It’s just the kind of tribute this branch used to love to give, and the song’s a nice throwback to the era they made so popular. I also think that the original song “Cinema Italiano” from Nine will make the cut. It’s one of only three listenable songs in the film and it’s such a peppy, energetic song that really captures the essence of what the film should have been about, that I can imagine them voting for it, if only to get Kate Hudson to perform it live onstage. Alternate Prediction: “I See You” – Avatar
Tripp Burton: This category can be the hardest to project, due to the branches crazy voting structure and their at times illogical thinking pattern. So, here goes: Randy Newman should pick up one nomination for The Princess and the Frog, the Avatar steamroller should carry over here, the score-inelgible Where the Wild Things Are should recoup its losses here and the two end of the year musicals, Crazy Heart and Nine should pick up a nomination for their most talked about songs. Alternate Prediction: “Trust Me” – The Informant!
Wes Huizar: Alternate Prediction: “(I Want To) Come Home” – Everybody’s Fine