I made prediction changes up until late in the day on Wednesday evening. Now it’s time to take a look at how I did overall with some commentary about the races as they turned out.

Within the last week, I made a number of changes, some of those weren’t very fruitful (eliminating Robert Duvall from Supporting Actor), but many were (the Original Song, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing changes in particular). As a result, this is the best prediction job I’ve done for nominations in my history. with 91 out of 121 potential nominations correctly predicted, it put me at 75.2% overall, topping my performances in 2002 and 2004. This was boosted by a career-best performance in the tech categories.

Best Picture

• Boyhood (c-8/31) — Lock —
• Birdman (c-4/21) — Lock —
• The Grand Budapest Hotel (c-4/21) — Lock —
• The Imitation Game (c-8/31) — Lock —
• The Theory of Everything (c-4/21) — Near Lock —
• Whiplash (c-11/7, n-12/30) — Near Lock —
• American Sniper (c-11/7, n-1/11) — Good —
• Selma (c-11/7, n-11/18) — Borderline —

MISSED

• Nightcrawler (c-1/11) — Borderline —
• Gone Girl (c-4/21) — Borderline —

Success: 8 out of top 10, 7 out of top 8
Commentary: The late surge of Nightcrawler turned out to be a populist wave in guilds that are much larger than the Academy’s less-than-7,000 total members. That means more conservative films tend to make it through ahead of ones that push the envelope, which Nightcrawler did. Gone Girl imploded, never reaching the potential it probably should have, but otherwise these are a fairly straight forward and expected list. No major surprises, good or bad. Though, poor Selma sharing a dubious distinction with Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close becoming only the second film in the modern Oscar era to earn only two Oscar nominations including Best Picture.

Best Animated Film

• Big Hero 6 (c-4/21) — Lock —
• The Boxtrolls (c-4/21) — Near Lock —
• How to Train Your Dragon 2 (c-4/21) — Near Lock —
• The Tale of the Princess Kaguya (c-4/21) — Near Lock —
• Song of the Sea (c-11/4) — Borderline —

MISSED

• The Lego Movie (c-4/21) — Lock —

Success: 4 out of 5
Commentary: I never would have guessed when predicting that the slot Song of the Sea would take would be that of frontrunner The Lego Movie. This had to be the biggest shock of the morning as it was one of the few locks that didn’t pan out. Most of the other failures this morning were people who were never guaranteed nominations. Perhaps the fact that The Lego Movie is just the first big screen outing for a studio that has produced a lot of direct-to-video Lego animated products, or that animated films that release before Summer don’t do well with the Academy, or that voters in the animation branch took for granted it would be nominated and selected something else. We may never know.

Best Director

• Boyhood – Richard Linklater (c-8/31) — Lock —
• Birdman – Alejandro González Iñárritu (c-4/21) — Lock —
• The Grand Budapest Hotel – Wes Anderson (c-4/21) — Near Lock —
• The Imitation Game – Morten Tyldum (c-8/31) — Good —
• Foxcatcher – Bennett Miller (c-4/21) — Borderline —

MISSED

• American Sniper – Clint Eastwood (c-11/7, n-1/13) — Borderline —

Success: 4 out of 5
Commentary: When Clint Eastwood showed up in the DGA list, many of us scrambled to find someone to replace. Some replaced Morten Tyldum, but I replaced Damien Chazelle who had been my left-field choice in this category. We were all wrong. Bennett Miller must now be considered the darling of the directors branch, having now scored two Best Director nominations and one Best Picture nomination for one of each of the three feature films he has directed to date. While he just barely missed the Best Picture race, this may be best any director has ever done with the Academy and signals a new de facto nominee (like Mike Leigh often was with the screenwriters) whenever he puts out a new film.

Best Actor

• Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything (c-4/21) — Near Lock —
• Michael Keaton – Birdman (c-8/31) — Lock —
• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game (c-8/31) — Lock —
• Bradley Cooper – American Sniper (c-11/7) — Borderline —
• Steve Carell – Foxcatcher (c-6/22) — Borderline —

MISSED

• Ralph Fiennes – The Grand Budapest Hotel (c-1/11) — Borderline —
• Jake Gyllenhaal – Nightcrawler (c-11/7) — Good —

Success: 3 out of 5
Commentary: After doing so incredibly well all season long, Jake Gyllenhaal gets to sit out another Oscars thanks to the last-minute surge of American Sniper, which pulled Bradley Cooper along to his third nomination (consecutive to boot). Steve Carell held off fierce competition and the impression that he was just a comedian doing film work to score his first nomination and a rare get for a TV comic. While Gyllenhaal was the only surprise omission with a strong chance of nomination, Ralph Fiennes wasn’t able to ride the coattails of his film to a nomination.

Best Actress

• Julianne Moore – Still Alice (c-11/7) — Lock —
• Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl (c-11/7, n-11/7) — Lock —
• Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything (c-11/7, n-1/11) — Near Lock —
• Reese Witherspoon – Wild (c-8/31) — Lock —
• Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night (c-12/22) — Borderline —

MISSED

• Amy Adams – Big Eyes (c-11/7, n-1/12) — Borderline —

Success: 4 out of 5
Commentary: When Jennifer Aniston scored acting nominations from SAG, the Globes and the Broadcast Critics, everyone was certain she would make it in the list. At the last minute, I scrubbed her from my list thinking she just wasn’t cut out to become an Oscar nominee and I thought late-surging Amy Adams might be able to replicate her come-from-behind mention for American Hustle last year. In the end, voters went back to the critics’ favorite, Marion Cotillard, who dominated the early race, but had faded as the more mainstream groups started picking nominees and winners.

Best Supporting Actor

• J.K. Simmons – Whiplash (c-11/7, n-11/7, o-11/7) — Lock —
• Edward Norton – Birdman (c-4/21) — Lock —
• Ethan Hawke – Boyhood (c-8/31) — Near Lock —
• Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher (c-4/21) — Near Lock —
• Robert Duvall – The Judge (c-12/27) — Borderline —

MISSED

• Riz Ahmed – Nightcrawler (c-1/11) — Borderline —

Success: 4 out of 5
Commentary: I’ll admit, I was still sure Robert Duvall would be the fifth nominee that, in spite of those inklings, I kept a surprise filler in there based on a late boost of popularity for Nightcrawler, which just didn’t materialize at the Academy. I’m not surprised Ahmed wasn’t included or that Duvall becomes the Strep of the men’s side of the Oscars. I was just hoping something else would sneak in to make things a bit more interesting.

Best Supporting Actress

• Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game (c-8/31) — Lock —
• Emma Stone – Birdman (c-4/21) — Near Lock —
• Patricia Arquette – Boyhood (c-8/31) — Lock —
• Meryl Streep – Into the Woods (c-4/21) — Borderline —
• Laura Dern – Wild (c-8/31) — Borderline —

MISSED

• Rene Russo – Nightcrawler (c-1/11) — Borderline —

Success: 4 out of 5
Commentary: Unfortunately, the emergence of Nightcrawler as an Oscar threat faded with these announcements. Rene Russo, who got some of the best notice of her career, got left out of the competition. Thankfully, it wasn’t someone onerous like Kristen Stewart or a smidge frustrating like Sienna Miller. Too bad, though, that Jessica Chastain couldn’t muster support for her performance. Still, having an acting legend like Laura Dern make the fifth slot at least makes it bearable.

Best Original Screenplay

• Birdman – Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo (c-4/21) — Lock —
• Boyhood – Richard Linklater (c-8/31) — Lock —
• The Grand Budapest Hotel – Wes Anderson (c-4/21) — Lock —
• Nightcrawler – Dan Gilroy (c-1/11, n-1/11) — Good —
• Foxcatcher – Dan Futterman, E. Max Frye (c-4/21) — Borderline —

MISSED

• Mr. Turner – Mike Leigh (c-4/21) — Borderline —

Success: 4 out of 5
Commentary: It was Foxcatcher, not Nightcrawler that was bolstered by a late-year surge. Foxcatcher made its presence known in a number of prominent categories even if it couldn’t muscle into the Best Picture slate. Oddly enough, this was the only category Nightcrawler ended up nominated in. Also, every tradition has to come to an end sometime. The once guaranteed Mike Leigh slot in the Original Screenplay category just didn’t occur, leaving him off a list that I had thought might be sure to include him.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• American Sniper – Jason Dean Hall (Book: Chris Kyle) (c-11/7, n-1/11) — Lock —
• The Imitation Game – Graham Moore (Book: Andrew Hodges) (c-8/31) — Lock —
• The Theory of Everything – Anthony McCarten (Book: Jane Hawking) (c-11/7, n-11/7) — Near Lock —
• Whiplash – Damien Chazelle (c-11/7, n-1/11) — Good —
• Inherent Vice – Paul Thomas Anderson (Novel: Thomas Pynchon) (c-4/21) — Borderline —

MISSED

• Gone Girl – Gillian Flynn (Novel: Gillian Flynn) (c-4/21) — Lock —

Success: 4 out of 5
Commentary: The precursor frontrunner goes down to defeat. What few seem to be talking about so far is that Gone Girl, which many (myself included) thought would be the easy frontrunner to win, just got ditched from this category. With Whiplash shifting unnecessarily from Original to Adapted and the absolute love this branch apparently has for Paul Thomas Anderson, there just wasn’t room for the likes of Gone Girl (though they could have dumped the other three nominees just a easily, but didn’t).

Best Original Score

• The Imitation Game – Alexandre Desplat (c-8/31) — Near Lock —
• The Grand Budapest Hotel – Alexandre Desplat (c-4/21) — Near Lock —
• Interstellar – Hans Zimmer (c-4/21) — Good —
• The Theory of Everything – Jóhann Jóhannsson (c-12/12) — Borderline —
• Mr. Turner – Gary Yershon (c-12/12) — Borderline —

MISSED

• Gone Girl – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross (c-12/12) — Borderline —

Success: 4 out of 5
Commentary: While I had thought Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross could nab their second Oscar nomination, the Academy just wasn’t as impressed with Gone Girl as I had thought. Not only did it not make it into Best Adapted Screenplay as expected, its absence here and Best Editing is most notable. This is Alexandre Desplat’s seventh and eighth nomination respectively. He first showed up on the Oscar radar in 2006 and was nominated almost every year since (excluding 2007 and 2011). 2011 was the last year a single composer pulled two nominations in one year. John Williams was that composer. Prior to that, it was 2005 when once again John Williams managed the feat. 2001 was also a double John Williams year. You have to go back to 1995 to find another composer twice nominated in the same category when James Horner made it in twice. Unfortunately, this doesn’t bode well for Desplat. The last time a composer was nominated twice in the same year and actually won the Oscar for one of them was in 1977 when John Williams (who has received countless double nominations in his career) managed to win for Star Wars while losing for Close Encounters of the Third Kind.

Best Original Song

• Everything Is Awesome – The Lego Movie (c-4/21) — Lock —
• Lost Stars – Begin Again (c-12/12) — Borderline —
• I’m Not Gonna Miss You – Glen Campbell…I’ll Be Me (c-12/12) — Near Lock —
• Glory – Selma (c-12/12) — Good —
• Grateful – Beyond the Lights (c-12/12) — Doubtful —

MISSED

• Split The Difference – Boyhood (c-12/12) — Borderline —

Success: 5 of 5
Commentary: It has to be a bit galling to earn a nomination for Best Original Song and then fail to get nominated for Best Animated Feature. However, that’s exactly what happened here for The Lego Movie. However, my idea that compositions about the songwriting process tend to do well here was borne out with the inclusion of “Lost Stars,” proved quite true. Unfortunately, that did not extend to the song from Boyhood, but it did help “Grateful.”

Best Editing

• American Sniper – Joel Cox, Gary Roach (c-11/7, n-11/7) — Good —
• Boyhood – Sandra Adair (c-8/31) — Borderline —
• The Imitation Game – William Goldenberg (c-8/31) — Near Lock —
• The Grand Budapest Hotel – Barney Pilling (c-12/22) — Borderline —
• Whiplash – Tom Cross (c-1/11) — Borderline —

MISSED

• Gone Girl – Kirk Baxter (c-4/21) — Near Lock —
• Birdman – Douglas Crise, Stephen Mirrione (c-12/22) — Lock —

Success: 3 out of 5
Commentary: Two major contenders for this award have been surprisingly overlooked. Gone Girl was a masterful editing piece, but was ignored as it was in so many other categories this year. It was replaced by The Grand Budapest Hotel, which hardly seems like a Best Editing contender and Whiplash, which makes quite a bit more sense (it’s like how boxing films show up here quite often). The Birdman exclusion may be easier to explain. While the film was not one long take, the editors made it seem like such. That kind of non-showy editing work tends to get ignored more often than recognized.

Best Cinematography

• Birdman – Emmanuel Lubezki (c-11/20) — Lock —
• The Grand Budapest Hotel – Robert D. Yeoman (c-4/21) — Near Lock —
• Mr. Turner – Dick Pope (c-11/20) — Good —
• Unbroken – Roger Deakins (c-4/21) — Near Lock —
• Ida – Lukas Zal, Ryszard Lenczewski

MISSED

• The Imitation Game – Oscar Faura (c-8/31) — Borderline —

Success: 4 out of 5
Commentary: The surprise ASC inclusion of The Imitation Game didn’t make it into the Oscar slate. Instead of going for the milquetoast, Harvey-pushed entry, they chose the black-and-white foreign language film Ida to heap praise on. Unlike The White Ribbon, the last such film to get nominated for the Oscars, Ida wasn’t picked by ASC, which doesn’t bode well for its chances of a win.

Best Production Design

• The Grand Budapest Hotel – Adam Stockhausen, Anna Pinnock (c-4/21) — Lock —
• The Imitation Game – Maria Djurkovic (c-8/31) — Borderline —
• Into the Woods – Dennis Gassner, Anna Pinnock (c-4/21) — Near Lock —
• Mr. Turner – Suzie Davies, Charlotte Watts (c-8/31) — Borderline —
• Interstellar – Nathan Crowley (c-4/21) — Borderline —

MISSED

• Guardians of the Galaxy – Charles Wood, Richard Roberts (c-1/11) — Borderline —

Success: 4 out of 5
Commentary: While I’ll admit my prediction of Guardians of the Galaxy was more an effort to say that some CGI-heavy film had to make this list, it appears that Interstellar managed to hold on in spite of its slow fade throughout Oscar season.

Best Costume Design

• Into the Woods – Colleen Atwood (c-4/21) — Lock —
• The Grand Budapest Hotel – Milena Canonero (c-4/21) — Lock —
• Maleficent – Anna B. Sheppard (c-4/21) — Borderline —
• Mr. Turner – Jacqueline Durran (c-8/31) — Borderline —
• Inherent Vice – Mark Bridges (c-1/11) — Doubtful —

MISSED

• Big Eyes – Colleen Atwood (c-11/7, n-1/13) — Borderline —

Success: 4 out of 5
Commentary: I doubt many Academy members saw Big Eyes and if they did, it probably wasn’t something they wanted to heap praise on. The costume designers aren’t always in love with mid-50’s and 60’s costume design, which may also explain the absence of The Imitation Game and Selma. However, they did manage to go a bit newer with Inherent Vice, actively depicting 1970’s fashion. They seem to be ok with that, though. I’m not sure why.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• Guardians of the Galaxy (c-12/15) — Lock —
• The Grand Budapest Hotel (c-4/21) — Borderline —
• Foxcatcher (c-12/15) — Borderline —

MISSED

• The Theory of Everything (c-12/15) — Good —

Success: 2 out of 3
Commentary: I thought perhaps that The Theory of Everything would ride a wave of support for the film to earn an undeserved nomination. However, the makeup artists and hairstylists showed some taste by ignoring it. I’m not sure if Foxcatcher is much better since it’s a limited application of prosthetics; however, it’s not an unsurprising choice from this group.

Best Sound Mixing

• Interstellar (c-4/21) — Near Lock —
• American Sniper (c-11/7, n-1/11) — Borderline —
• Birdman (c-1/11) — Borderline —
• Unbroken (c-4/21) — Borderline —
• Whiplash (c-1/14) — Borderline —

MISSED

• Guardians of the Galaxy (c-4/21) — Good —

Success: 4 out of 5
Commentary: The Marvel curse isn’t as powerful as it once was, but it still hindered Guardians of the Galaxy‘s chances here. In spite of having one of the best mixed soundtracks this year, apparently the heavy percussion of Whiplash was much better and more seamlessly designed. I’m also glad I made last-minute changes to this category and Sound Editing, putting Birdman and Unbroken into both.

Best Sound Editing

• Interstellar (c-4/21) — Near Lock —
• American Sniper (c-11/7, n-1/11) — Borderline —
• Birdman (c-1/14) — Borderline —
• Unbroken (c-4/21) — Borderline —
• The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (c-4/21) — Borderline —

MISSED

• Guardians of the Galaxy (c-4/21) — Good —

Success: 4 out of 5
Commentary: I suppose for a film like Guardians of the Galaxy, if the Sound Mixing isn’t notable enough, neither is the Sound Editing. The Motion Picture Sound Editors nominations clarified this category tremendously yesterday, hence my ability to shift my predictions around for a stronger performance here. Birdman and Unbroken both showed up there and at the Cinema Audio Society, which led me to rightly predict that those films were very popular with the sound community and thus would pick up double nods. It’s also kinda sad that for a category that once famously denied The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King a richly deserved Sound Editing nomination, would end up being the only category in which the final Hobbit film would be nominated.

Best Visual Effects

• Interstellar (c-4/21) — Lock —
• Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (c-4/21) — Lock —
• Guardians of the Galaxy (c-4/21) — Good —
• X-Men: Days of Future Past (c-4/21) — Borderline —
• Captain America: The Winter Soldier (c-4/21) — Doubtful —

MISSED

• The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (c-4/21) — Near Lock —

Success: 4 out of 5
Commentary: I would never have guessed that The Hobbit wasn’t as strong a contender as the likes of X-Men, but here it is. The film took the franchise out with a whimper, becoming the only film in the franchise not nominated for Best Visual Effects. Captain America is the surprise nominee here with it and X-Men repping their franchises’ first nominations at the Oscars.

Best Foreign Language Film

• Ida – Poland (c-11/7) — Good —
• Leviathan – Russia (c-11/7) — Good —
• Timbuktu – Mauritania (c-11/7) — Borderline —
• Wild Tales – Argentina (c-11/7) — Borderline —
• Tangerines – Estonia (c-11/7) — Borderline —

MISSED

• Force Majeure – Sweden (c-11/7) — Good —

Success: 4 out of 5
Commentary: The critically acclaimed Force Majeure losing out on a nod here is quite surprising, though it does open Ida up to a potentially uncontested victory.

Best Documentary Feature

• CitizenFour (c-11/7) — Near Lock —
• Finding Vivian Maier (c-4/21) — Borderline —
• Last Days in Vietnam (c-4/21) — Borderline —
• Virunga (c-11/7) — Borderline —
• The Salt of the Earth (c-11/7) — Doubtful —

MISSED

• Life Itself (c-11/7) — Borderline —
• The Overnighters (c-11/7) — Borderline —

Success: Before making my final predictions, I almost dropped Life Itself to put Finding Vivian Maier in instead of dropping Virunga as I eventually did. That resulted in a lower-than-hoped prediction rate here. Life Itself isn’t the kind of film the Academy typically nominates. They are particularly averse to documentaries about the film industry in any way, shape or form, and to recognize a film critic (even if he was more than that later in life) just doesn’t seem like something working filmmakers would do (of course, this group is largely retired, so I doubt it was the new blood’s fault it didn’t get nominated).
Commentary: XXXX

Best Documentary Short Subject

• Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1 (c-11/7)
• Joanna (c-11/7)
• Our Curse (c-11/7)
• The Reaper (La Parka) (c-11/7)
• White Earth (c-11/7)

MISSED

• Kehinde Wiley: An Economy of Grace (c-11/7)
• One Child (c-11/7)

Success: 3 out of 5
Commentary: No major change in my performance over prior year in this category. There are no surprises here. (The ones I thought had the best chance made it).

Best Animated Short Film

• Feast (c-11/7)
• The Bigger Picture (c-11/7)
• A Single Life (c-11/7)
• The Dam Keeper (c-11/7)
• Me and My Moulton (c-11/7)

MISSED

• The Numberlys (c-11/7)
• Symphony No. 42 (c-11/7)

Success: 3 out of 5
Commentary: No real surprises as the one film I was certain would make it, Feast, did.

Best Live Action Short Film

• The Phone Call (c-11/20)
• Aya (c-11/20)
• Boogaloo and Graham (c-11/20)
• Butter Lamp (c-11/20)
• Parvaneh (c-11/20)

MISSED

• Baghdad Messi (c-11/20)
• My Father’s Truck (c-11/20)
• Summer Vacation (c-11/20)

Success: 2 out of 5
Commentary: As usual, this was one of my worst categories. However, The Phone Call made the list and it was the only film I was certain would be here.