FOR AN OSCAR MORNING TRACKING SHEET, CLICK HERE. My predictions are in BOLD.

For the second year in a row, Oscar enthusiasts around the globe will be able to experience the joy of knowing the Oscar nominees as they are announced. Beginning at 5:30am Pacific (7:30am Central / 8:30am Eastern), the Academy will announce nominations in eleven categories. This first batch will be revealed by directors Guillermo del Toro and Ang Lee.

Eight minutes later, Academy president Cheryl Boone Isaacs will be joined by The Office star John Krasinski to announce the results in the remaining 13 categories.

This is their second year announcing nominations in all 24 categories and I admit that I’m quite pleased. There will also be a live stream, which you can find below.

Every year, I put together an article that goes through the order of announcement and gives you not only an idea of what to expect, but how it might affect later announcements or have been affected by earlier ones. The attached PDF features all of the films I’ve labeled as Hopefuls so that you can print it out and follow along as the announcements are made.

With my personal opinions about the race highlighted in today’s other final nominations predictions post, I’m going to try and keep things brief. However, we all know how that usually turns out.

The list below is based on last year’s presentation order and hopefully they’ll stick to it.

At the end of each category, there’s a short, alphabetized list in the order the nominations would be announced so you can quickly look over the order in a small space.

Announcement 1

Two-time Oscar winner Ang Lee will be joined by Oscar nominee Guillermo del Toro to present the first eleven categories. The categories being announced are: Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Documentary Short Subject, Editing, Original Song, Production Design, Animated Short Film, Live-Action Short Film, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects. The order below matches the order in which they were announced last year.

Best Original Song

Starting off with the category that has the least influence over other categories, Original Song is one of those categories where anything can happen. The first expected nominee is “See You Again,” so anything from A through R could appear before this. I think “Feels Like Summer” will be the only title, but then again it could be any of a number of songs, including the songs from Fifty Shades of Grey. After that, “Simple Song #3” should follow. There should then be two more slots available on the list for “Til It Happens to You” and “Writing’s On the Wall.” If you get the final slot before both of these, then it will be a surprise to most everyone. In the end, “So Long” could also be one of the last two. It’s really hard to predict this one anyway, so I’ll leave the below items for you to review if you need to.

Better When I’m Dancin’, Cold One, Earned It, Feels Like Summer, Fighting Stronger, Flashlight, Grip, I’ll See You In My Dreams, The Light That Never Fails, Love Me Like You Do, None Of Them Are You, Salted Wound, See You Again, Simple Song #3, So Long, Strong, Til It Happens to You, Waiting For My Moment, Who Can You Trust, Writing’s On the Wall

Best Visual Effects

There are a finite number of outcomes here since there are only ten titles on the list. The first title that should be read off is Mad Max: Fury Road. If not, then it’s either Ex Machina or Jurassic World or both. If it’s any other title, then look for a lot of surprising omissions. Following Max should be a continuous line of three titles: The Martian, The Revenant and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. If another title appears before these four, then Star Wars will be last. If it’s fourth, then the final title will likely be The Walk.

Ant-Man, Avengers, Ex Machina, Jurassic World, Mad Max, The Martian, The Revenant, Star Wars, Tomorrowland, The Walk

Best Documentary Short Subject

Another limited set, so you should be able to follow along with this one pretty easily.

50 Feet from Syria, Body Team 12, Chau Beyond the Lines, Claude Lanzmann, A Girl in the River, Last Day of Freedom, Minerita, My Enemy My Brother, Starting Point, The Testimony

Best Documentary Feature

There are fifteen available titles here. The first to be announced should be Amy. The next title will either be Best of Enemies or Cartel Land. After that, the crystal ball is murky. Any of the next five could be mentioned, but I believe that The Look of Silence will be announced third. There’s another couple of titles that could fill in four and five before hitting the two more obvious choices: Where to Invade Next and Winter on Fire

3 1/2 Minutes, Amy, Best of Enemies, Cartel Land, Going Clear, He Named Me Malala, Heart of a Dog, Hunting Ground, Listen to Me Marlon, Look of Silence, Meru, We Come as Friends, What Happened Miss Simone, Where Do We Invade Next, Winter on Fire

Best Film Editing

Now we finally get to a category that will tell us something about the upcoming nominations. All Best Picture contenders are up for consideration here and an absence means that a title doesn’t have as much strength as previously thought. Don’t expect the likes of Carol or Brooklyn, though, as they aren’t very obviously edited with very deliberate pacing.

The title to open this list is likely going to be The Big Short. I can’t really see any other scenario. The second title is either going to be Bridge of Spies or Mad Max: Fury Road if neither is, things are getting weird and whichever title is in there is very likely a Best Picture nominee. After Mad Max, the next two names will be The Martian and The Revenant. There are few other options. These three titles either fill the last three slots or the middle three with Sicario the likely fifth place title or a surprising inclusion of Spotlight, against most odds.

Beasts of No Nation, Big Short, Black Mass, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Carol, Hateful Eight, Joy, Mad Max, Martian, Revenant, Room, Sicario, Southpaw, Spotlight, Star Wars

Best Sound Editing

Not particularly impactful, but a strong showing by titles like The Revenant or Sicario could mean big things. If the first title announced isn’t Mad Max, we’ll know a great deal. Hateful Eight, Inside Out and Bridge of Spies are strong possibilities, but so too are a bunch of big budget features. Following up Mad Max is a pair of films you’re going to see together a lot on these lists: The Martian and The Revenant (and may have already seen twice before). Sicario and Star Wars will probably fill out the ranks. If there’s only one slot left after Revenant, then Star Wars has it.

Avengers, Everest, Hateful Eight, In the Heart of the Sea, Inside Out, Jurassic World, Mad Max, Martian, Mission: Impossible, Revenant, Sicario, Star Wars, Terminator, The Walk

Best Sound Mixing

Going hand in hand, look for a near duplication of the prior category. The difference here is that one title is likely to show up before Mad Max and it’s probably going to be Hateful Eight. If Tarantino’s film gets shut out of either of these categories, it may be taking a drubbing throughout the announcements. Substitute in Sicario if Mad Max is the first on the Sound Editing list because those two categories will probably align.

Avengers, Bridge of Spies, Everest, Hateful Eight, In the Heart of the Sea, Inside Out, Jurassic World, Love & Mercy, Mad Max, Martian, Mission: Impossible, Revenant, Sicario, Spectre, Star Wars, Terminator

Best Production Design

Here’s the category Carol got snubbed at with the Art Directors Guild. This will be a sign to show how strong its support is. Showing up here means Best Picture is very likely and Best Director becomes a stronger possibility as well. The first film to be announced will probably be Bridge of Spies, though, and if it isn’t and it’s not Brooklyn, then it’s either Carol or Crimson Peak or both. The second or third film on the list could be The Danish Girl, but I think it is one of the weaker contenders in this category.

As such, one or two of these titles will be followed by Mad Max. If Max doesn’t make the list, then its Best Picture chances need to be questioned immediately. At this point, Max is probably fourth on the list and, if so, Star Wars is last. Revenant making a surprise appearance here or even The Martian will show that either film is performing stronger up ballot.

Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Carol, Crimson Peak, Danish Girl, Hateful Eight, Joy, Macbeth, Mad Max, Martian, Pan, Revenant, Star Wars, Suffragette

Best Live Action Short Film

I have zero clue which films will be nominated, so just stick to the order below and you’ll get the gist.

Ave Maria, Bad Hunter, Bis Gleich, Contrapelo, Day One, Everything Will Be Okay, Free Man, Shok, Stutterer, Winter Light

Best Animated Short Film

Another category where I can’t adequately express the order.

Bear Story, Carface, If I Was God, Love in the Time of March Madness, My Home, Object at Rest, Prologue, Sanjay’s Super Team, We Can’t Live Without Cosmos, World of Tomorrow

Best Animated Film

This category won’t have an affect down ballot or up ballot, but damned if we won’t likely hear something shocking. Last year, The Lego Movie failed to make the cut. Five films have been dominating all season, but which one will miss? You may have your answer right off the bat, since this finite list of 16 titles is lead by the film I think these voters are most likely to ignore: Anomalisa. If it isn’t first and Boy and the World is, then you know the remaining four films are fairly safe, though Peanuts Movie and Shaun the Sheep could also be vulnerable.

The Good Dinosaur is likely to be second regardless of what film is announced first. This should be followed by Inside Out as either the second or third title. Two films could interrupt the flow here with Kahlil Gibran’s The Prophet or Minions making a surprise appearance. If either show up, however many places you have left will determine whether Peanuts or Shaun are nominated. If you get to Shaun and there’s still one slot open, When Marnie Was There will be it.

Anomalisa, Boy and the Beast, Boy and the World, Good Dinosaur, Home, Hotel Transylvania, Inside Out, Kahlil Gibran’s Prophet, Laws of the Universe, Minions, Moomins, Peanuts, Regular Show, Shaun the Sheep, SpongeBob, When Marnie Was There

Announcement 2

Joining Academy President Cheryl Boone Isaacs, The Office star John Krasinski will help present the remaining thirteen categories at 8:38am ET (5:30am PT, 7:30am CT). The categories they will announce are: Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Costume Design, Director, Foreign Language Film, Makeup & Hairstyling, Original Score, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, and Picture. I have sorted out the below based on the presentation order from last year. Note that all categories are presented alphabetically with only the acting categories sorted by the individual’s last name. All others, including Best Director, will be done alphabetically by film.

Best Supporting Actor

Now we get to the good stuff. The Best Supporting Actor category is the most contentious. With so many possible outcomes, there’s bound to be something shocking. Bale should, without any surprise, open the nominations in this category. After that, we have roughly five possible scenarios for the second name on the list and perhaps even the second and third. Paul Dano, Benicio Del Toro, Idris Elba, Tom Hardy and Michael Keaton each have strong chances of making the list, but Del Toro may have the edge at this point. If none of them are selected and the second name is Mark Ruffalo, then the last three are down to five names and likely no one else.

Third or fourth will be Mark Rylance. If he’s fourth, then Stallone will likely be fifth. If Rylance is third, then Stallone is pretty much guaranteed and either Michael Shannon or Jacob Tremblay will appear. If it’s Tremblay, then Room is a guaranteed Best Picture nominee. If not, it doesn’t affect the film’s chances whatsoever. If Keaton makes the list, then the love for Spotlight is more than we expected, especially if he shows up with Ruffalo. More Big Short cast members other than Bale would mean that film has impressive support. Elba might be a bit surprising, then, but Hardy showing up will likely mean that Revenant is in it to win it.

Bale, Cohen, Dano, Del Toro, Elba, Gosling, Hardy, Keaton, Pitt, Ruffalo, Rylance, Shannon, Stallone, Tremblay

Best Supporting Actress

This category will lay to rest all of our concerns about category fraud. Either Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander are here or they could be left out entirely. This is especially true if Vikander is nominated for Ex Machina. Suffice it to say that if Mara doesn’t show up, then you should pencil her in as a Best Actress nominee. Just pencil though, not ink, because she could be left off both lists in one of the biggest shocks of the night.

The top of the list will tell us whether Room is playing far better than expected or if things are following the status quo with a Joan Allen surprise nod. Jennifer Jason Leigh is the likely first person to be announced. Jane Fonda could preempt her, which could very well happen if Mara isn’t nominated. Mara would follow Jason Leigh if she’s going to be here. Otherwise, either Rachel McAdams or Helen Mirren show up and from there, we only have two real possibilities if there are only two slots left: Vikander for either Ex Machina or Danish Girl, and Kate Winslet.

Allen, Banks, Fonda, Leigh, Mara, McAdams, Mirre, Nixon, Stewart, Taylor, Vikander (Danish), Vikander (Ex), Walters, Winslet

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

With seven shortlist films and only three nomination berths, this category won’t take long to announce. Revenant and Mad Max should both make it unless the makeup branch gets weird again. It’s happened before. Many times. The first title on the list will tell us which film joins those two. If it’s Mad Max, then it’s Mr. Holmes. If Mad Max isn’t second, then something is definitely weird and if Mr. Holmes is second, Mad Max will be out.

100-Year-Old, Black Mass, Concussion, Legend, Mad Max, Mr. Holmes, Revenant

Best Costume Design

There seems to be a small number of iterations in this category, but if Carol or Brooklyn miss out, then their support has eroded significantly and their Best Picture chances are in jeopardy. If Danish Girl isn’t here, it doesn’t mean much as it isn’t really considered a Best Picture contender at this point.

Starting things off will either be Bridge of Spies (unlikely) or Brooklyn (probable). From there, it’s a straight shot through the nominees on my list ending with Danish Girl. If any one of these is left off, look out for Hateful Eight, Mad Max, Revenant or Star Wars, all films that don’t typically fit this category’s history.

Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Carol, Cinderella, Crimson Peak, Danish Girl, Madding Crowd, Hateful Eight, Macbeth, Mad Max, Pan, Revenant, Star Wars, Suffragette

Best Cinematography

The first three titles announced will tell us everything as the final two are almost assuredly going to be Revenant and Sicario. Bridge of Spies followed by Carol and then Mad Max is the order most likely to occur. Hateful Eight could sneak in there and it will likely be second on the list if anywhere.

Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Carol, Hateful Eight, Joy, Mad Max, Martian, Revenant, Sicario, Spotlight, Star Wars

Best Adapted Screenplay

This may be the last time we know anything about certain films’ chances. This category is filled with Best Picture contenders and any of them missing the list (other than Brooklyn) might indicate a death knell has sounded for the film’s chances.

One of two films will probably end up on top here, Anomalisa or Big Short. Big Short will most likely be first. The second and third title may be critical. Carol wants to be in second here. If Brooklyn is, then Carol could be left off entirely. If Martian is second, several prominent players are wiped out of the race and Revenant may be a surprise nominee. After Big Short, the conventional wisdom is Carol, then Martian, Room and finally Steve Jobs. The last three could all be victims if Brooklyn and Carol both show up. A nomination for Mad Max and/or Revenant would be incredibly telling.

Anomalisa, Beasts of No Nation, Big Short, Black Mass, Brooklyn, Carol, Danish Girl, Mad Max, Martian, Me and Earl, Revenant, Room, Steve Jobs

Best Original Screenplay

There might be some interesting omissions here, but it’s the inclusions that would be race redefining. Bridge of Spies will lead the list. Anything else would be a complete shock. Second place could be one of three films, Ex Machina (as I suspect) or Hateful Eight or Inside Out. If Inside Out is second, something surprising is about to happen.

Third place needs to be Inside Out to make any sense. If it’s second, Son of Saul, Trainwreck or Straight Outta Compton could be the benefactors. Inside Out in fourth would mean Sicario is left in the cold because Spotlight missing this list would be a real jaw-on-the-floor moment and would mean the end of its Oscar campaign.

Bridge of Spies, Ex Machina, Hateful Eight, Inside Out, Joy, Love & Mercy, Mistress America, Sicario, Son of Saul, Spotlight, Straight Outta Compton, Tangerine, Trainwreck

Best Original Score

Sometimes major Best Picture players make an appearance here, sometimes they don’t. There are so many possibilities that even Carol being announced second wouldn’t surprise me. If so, it could be any film announced first, but Bridge of Spies or Brooklyn are the most likely to precede Carol. Hateful Eight is assumed to be on the list, either second or third and Inside Out will be hot on its heels. From there, things get muddy again with several possibilities before the list is ended with John Williams for Star Wars

The 33, Anomalisa, Beasts of No Nation, Big Short, Black Mass, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Carol, Danish Girl, Hateful Eight, Inside Out, It Follows, Mad Max, Martian, Room, Sicario, Southpaw, Spotlight, Star Wars, Steve Jobs, Suffragette, The Walk

Best Foreign Language Film

Get out your Surprise Hats because here’s where the late announcements may be most shocking and it’s only for a single reason. There’s rumor that Son of Saul had to be saved to stay in the final list of nine films. If that’s true, then its inclusion may not be set in stone. The rest of the slate is fairly fluid with Mustang and Labyrinth of Lies the only other titles that are possibly safe. We won’t likely know until the fourth or fifth title is revealed whether Son of Saul makes it or not.

Brand New Testament, Embrace the Serpent, Fencer, Labyrinth of Lies, Mustang, Son of Saul, Theeb, Viva, A War

Best Director

Here, the fate of Carol is decided. The DGA ignored Todd Haynes, so it’s possible the Academy will do the same. He’s not a director they’ve gone to before, so there’s a chance they just don’t love his work. Passion is important for these voters. Since this category is announced by title, we’ll know right off the bat what to expect.

Big Short‘s Adam McKay will probably be first. If he isn’t, then either Steven Spielberg is first for Bridge of Spies or Carol is on top. From there, the expected four are Mad Max, Martian and Revenant in that trifecta of positions. The final slot will either be Alejandro G. Inarritu or Tom McCarthy with two possibilities in between. Keep your eye on first, second and third place to tell you what you need to know. All five of the films on this list will be on the Best Picture slate unless someone shocking (like Laszlo Nemes for Son of Saul) sneaks in.

Beasts of No Nation, Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Carol, Danish Girl, Hateful Eight, Joy, Mad Max, Martian, Revenant, Room, Sicario, Spotlight

Best Actress

Once we know the Best Supporting Actress nominees, we will know almost assuredly who is on this list. That determination will be made by whether Rooney Mara is nominated in that lower category or not. If she is, then the five slots here are Cate Blanchett, Brie Larson, Charlotte Rampling, Saoirse Ronan, and either Jennifer Lawrence, Alicia Vikander or a surprising third candidate. If Mara wasn’t mentioned in support, then either there was no passion for her performance or she’s nominated here.

First on the list will be Cate Blanchett. There are no others before her (she’s not actually a god, though). Second on the list may either be a gasp-inducing nomination for Emily Blunt or an expected mention for Brie Larson. Who comes after Larson in third position will be the key to the rest of the category. Jennifer Lawrence, Rooney Mara and Charlotte Rampling could all conceivably fill slot number three. If Rampling is third, then the fifth slot will be awaited with bated breath. Rampling in fourth means we’ll round out the list with Saoirse Ronan in fifth. If Ronan is fourth, then the final slot will be held by Alicia Vikander for The Danish Girl (most likely), Charlize Theron for Mad Max (a bit surprising, but not entirely unexpected), or Lily Tomlin or Maggie Smith, either of which would set the message boards afire.

Blanchett, Blunt, Larson, Lawrence, Mara, Rampling, Ronan, Theron, Tomlin, Vikander

Best Actor

There are four names everyone expects to appear on this list: Matt Damon, Leonardo DiCaprio, Michael Fassbender, and Eddie Redmayne. Redmayne may be the weakest competitor of the three, but his omission would be met with quite a bit of surprise and endless chastising by transgender rights groups. The question is which actor fills the fifth slot. We will probably know immediately who it is. Before Damon on the list, it could be either Michael Caine, Steve Carell or Bryan Cranston. Cranston’s position seems to have solidified recently with his BAFTA nomination. If he’s announced, then you can probably just fill out the rest of your list without looking. A Carell mention would probably put Big Short on a fast track towards a Best Picture win.

If none of those are first and Damon is read before the others, then he’ll either be followed by Johnny Depp or DiCaprio. DiCaprio will be followed by Fassbender and then we’ll have to wait to find out who’s fourth. While anyone could be fourth in the scenario that Cranston is ignored, Redmayne is probably going to be it leaving the fifth spot for Will Smith. However, another surprise inclusion could wait until last as Geza Rohrig is a dark horse for a nomination for Son of Saul. If that film made the Original Screenplay slate or the Director slate, then Rohrig is a distinct possibility.

Caine, Carell, Cranston, Damon, Dano, Depp, DiCaprio, Fassbender, Hanks, Hardy, Jordan, Keaton, McKellen, Redmayne, Smith

Best Picture

And now the category we’ve all been waiting for. By this point, we should know exactly how strong Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Carol, Mad Max, Room and Spotlight are performing. While Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Mad Max and Spotlight won’t likely take a hit from a few missed mentions, too many and they may be weaker than we expected.

Unfortunately, there are too many contenders at the end of the list alphabetically to have any idea when we’ll know exactly how many pictures are nominated this year. We’ll just have to keep ticking them off until the end.

The top of the list should be Big Short. It will be followed by either Bridge of Spies or Brooklyn or Carol or all three. From there, we wait to see if Inside Out will become the fourth animated film ever nominated for Best Picture. While signs have pointed to yes all season, with such a bounteous supply of contenders, it could be omitted. It’s either fifth or Mad Max is. At Mad Max we have the standard trio including Martian and Revenant followed by either Room, Sicario or Spotlight or any combination of those. If one of the prior eight films miss, then all three could be up. If any one of these eleven titles don’t make it either the final slot or slots are taken up by Star Wars, Steve Jobs and/or Straight Outta Compton or we’ll be short some nominees.

Beasts of No Nation, Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Carol, Creed, Danish Girl, Hateful Eight, Inside Out, Joy, Mad Max, Martian, Revenant, Room, Sicario, Spotlight, Star Wars, Steve Jobs, Straight Outta Compton

That’s it for this year. I apologize for not being more long-winded.