UPDATED: JANUARY 21, 2024

I’ve updated a handful of picks at the last minute. Nothing too major.

Lock: It would be a major shock if these selections weren’t nominated. The buzz would be deafening.
Near Lock: These are selections that I think are pretty certain, but I cannot quite declare them as guarantees.
Good: There isn’t much of a chance that this nominee will be left off the list, but stranger things have happened.
Borderline: These are the achievements that I think are fighting for the slots not taken up by the locks, near locks and goods above. None of these selections are safe and could be bumped off by any other title with the “borderline” description.
Doubtful: These are outside contenders that have been in the conversation, but whose prospects have dimmed over time. They remain on the list because sometimes the Academy does some strange stuff.

Everything from Best Picture down through Best Visual Effects have been placed in the order from most to least likely to be nominated.

Best Picture

• Oppenheimer – Universal (c-5/11, n-5/11, o-12/19) — Lock —
•  
• The Holdovers – Focus (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Near Lock —
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Paramount (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Near Lock —
• Poor Things – Searchlight (c-10/17, n-10/17) — Near Lock —
• Anatomy of a Fall – Neon (c-9/20, n-9/20) — Good —
• The Zone of Interest – A24 (c-9/20, n-12/19) — Good —
• Barbie – Warner Bros. (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Good —
• Past Lives – A24 (c-9/20, n-9/20) — Borderline —
• American Fiction – MGM (c-9/20, n-9/20) — Borderline —
• Maestro – Netflix (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Borderline —
•  
• The Color Purple – Warner Bros. (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• All of Us Strangers – Searchlight (c-1/16) — Borderline —
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – Sony (c-1/16) — Borderline —
• Saltburn – Amazon Prime (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• May December – Netflix (c-8/13) — Borderline —
• Godzilla Minus One – Toho International (c-1/16) — Doubtful —
• The Iron Claw – A24 (c-1/16) — Doubtful —

Best Animated Feature

• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – Sony (c-5/11, n-5/11, o-6/25) — Lock —
•  
• The Boy and the Heron – GKIDS (c-9/20, n-9/20) — Lock —
• Robot Dreams – Neon (c-12/7, n-12/19) — Borderline —
• Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem – Paramount (c-8/13, n-1/16) — Good —
• Nimona – Netflix (c-9/20, n-9/20) — Borderline —
•  
• Elemental – Pixar (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Suzume (c-12/7) — Borderline —
• Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget – Netflix (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• The Super Mario Bros. Movie – Illumination (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia (c-12/7) — Borderline —
• They Shot the Piano Player (c-12/7) — Borderline —
• The Amazing Maurice (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• Blue Giant (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• Chang’an (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• Deep Sea (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• The First Slam Dunk (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• The Inventor (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• Leo (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• Lonely Castle in the Mirror (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• The Magician’s Elephant (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• Migration – Illumination (c-5/11) — Doubtful —
• Miraculous: Ladybug & Cat Noir, The Movie (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• The Monkey King (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• My Love Affair with Marriage (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• The Peasants (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• Perlimps (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken – DreamWorks (c-5/11) — Doubtful —
• Titina (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• Trolls Band Together – DreamWorks (c-5/11) — Doubtful —
• Unicorn Wars (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• Warrior King (c-12/7) — Doubtful —
• Wish – Disney (c-5/11) — Doubtful —

Best Directing

• Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan (c-5/11, n-5/11, o-12/19) — Lock —
•  
• The Holdovers – Alexander Payne (c-5/11, n-1/16) — Good —
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Martin Scorsese (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Borderline —
• Poor Things – Yorgos Lanthimos (c-10/17, n-12/19) — Borderline —
• Barbie – Greta Gerwig (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Borderline —
•  
• The Zone of Interest – Jonathan Glazer (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Maestro – Bradley Cooper (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• All of Us Strangers – Andrew Haigh (c-1/20) — Borderline —
• Past Lives – Celine Song (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• American Fiction – Cord Jefferson (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• May December – Todd Haynes (c-8/13) — Borderline —
• Saltburn – Emerald Fennell (c-5/11) — Doubtful —

Best Actor

• Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers (c-5/11, n-12/19, o-1/16) — Lock —
•  
• Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Lock —
• Bradley Cooper – Maestro (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Borderline —
• Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction (c-9/20, n-11/20) — Borderline —
• Colman Domingo – Rustin (c-5/18, n-1/16) — Borderline —
•  
• Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Teo Yoo – Past Lives (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Barry Keoghan – Saltburn (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Franz Rogowski – Passages (c-12/19) — Borderline —

Best Actress

• Emma Stone – Poor Things (c-5/18, n-9/20, o-1/16) — Lock —
•  
• Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall (c-9/20, n-12/19) — Good —
• Carey Mulligan – Maestro (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Good —
• Margot Robbie – Barbie (c-5/11, n-7/22) — Borderline —
• Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (c-9/20, n-9/20) — Borderline —
•  
• Greta Lee – Past Lives (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Annette Bening – Nyad (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Origin (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Natalie Portman – May December (c-8/13) — Borderline —
• Teyana Taylor – A Thousand and One (c-5/11) — Doubtful —

Best Supporting Actor

• Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer (c-5/11, n-7/22, o-7/22) — Lock —
•  
• Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon (c-5/11, n-1/16) — Good —
• Ryan Gosling – Barbie (c-5/11, n-7/22) — Good —
• Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers (c-12/19, n-1/18) — Borderline —
• Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction (c-12/19, n-12/19) — Borderline —
•  
• Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things (c-5/18) — Borderline —
• Willem Dafoe – Poor Things (c-5/18) — Borderline —
• Paul Mescal – All of Us Strangers (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Charles Melton – May December (c-12/19) — Borderline —
• Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry (c-1/16) — Doubtful —

Best Supporting Actress

• Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers (c-9/20, n-9/20, o-12/19) — Lock —
•  
• Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple (c-11/20, n-11/20) — Borderline —
• Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer (c-5/11, n-1/16) — Borderline —
• Jodie Foster – Nyad (c-5/11, n-9/20) — Borderline —
• Sandra Hüller – The Zone of Interest (c-12/19, n-1/20) — Borderline —
•  
• America Ferrera – Barbie (c-12/19) — Borderline —
• Rosamund Pike – Saltburn (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Penélope Cruz – Ferrari (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Julianne Moore – May December (c-8/13) — Borderline —
• Claire Foy – All of Us Strangers (c-1/20) — Borderline —
• Rachel McAdams – Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. (c-1/16) — Borderline —
• Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (c-6/27) — Borderline —
• Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple (c-5/11) — Doubtful —

Best Original Screenplay

• The Holdovers – David Hemingson (c-5/11, n-5/11, o-5/11) — Lock —
•  
• Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet (c-9/20, n-9/20) — Lock —
• Past Lives – Celine Song (c-9/20, n-9/20) — Good —
• Maestro – Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Borderline —
• May December – Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik (c-8/13, n-12/19) — Borderline —
•  
• Saltburn – Emerald Fennell (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• The Boy and the Heron – Hayao Miyazaki (c-1/18) — Borderline —
• The Iron Claw – Sean Durkin (c-1/18) — Borderline —
• Passages – Ira Sachs, Mauricio Zacharias (c-1/18) — Borderline —
• Air – Alex Convery (c-5/11) — Doubtful —

Best Adapted Screenplay

• American Fiction – Cord Jefferson (c-9/20, n-9/20, o-12/19) — Good —
•  
• Poor Things – Tony McNamara (c-5/18, n-9/20) — Lock —
• Barbie – Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Borderline —
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Borderline —
• Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan (c-5/11, n-1/16) — Borderline —
•  
• All of Us Strangers – Andrew Haigh (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• The Zone of Interest – Jonathan Glazer (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Origin – Ava DuVernay (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. – Kelly Fremon Craig (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• BlackBerry – Matt Johnson, Matthew Miller (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• The Color Purple – Marcus Gardley (c-5/11) — Doubtful —

Best Original Song

• What Was I Made For? – Barbie (c-12/19, n-12/19, o-12/19) — Good —
•  
• I’m Just Ken – Barbie (c-12/19, n-12/19) — Good —
• Road to Freedom – Rustin (c-12/19, n-12/19) — Good —
• It Never Went Away – American Symphony (c-12/21, n-1/18) — Borderline —
• The Fire Inside – Flamin’ Hot (c-12/19, n-1/16) — Borderline —
•  
• Quiet Eyes – Past Lives (c-12/21) — Borderline —
• Am I Dreaming – Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (c-12/21) — Borderline —
• Keep It Movin’ – The Color Purple (c-12/19) — Borderline —
• Can’t Catch Me Now – The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes (c-12/21) — Borderline —
• Meet in the Middle – Flora and Son (c-12/21) — Borderline —
• High Life – Flora and Son (c-12/19) — Borderline —
• Superpower (I) – The Color Purple (c-12/21) — Doubtful —
• Dance the Night – Barbie (c-12/19) — Doubtful —
• Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People) – Killers of the Flower Moon (c-12/21) — Doubtful —
• Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven) – Asteroid City (c-12/21) — Doubtful —

All of the Songs listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Music branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Original Score

• Oppenheimer – Ludwig Göransson (c-5/11, n-5/11, o-1/16) — Lock —
•  
• Poor Things – Jerskin Fendrix (c-10/17, n- 12/19) — Near Lock —
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Robbie Robertson (c-5/11, n-9/20) — Near Lock —
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – Daniel Pemberton (c-12/19, n-1/16) — Good —
• The Zone of Interest – Mica Levi (c-9/20, n-12/19) — Borderline —
•  
• American Symphony – Jon Batiste (c-12/21) — Borderline —
• Society of the Snow – Michael Giacchino (c-12/19) — Borderline —
• Barbie – Alexandre Desplat (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• The Boy and the Heron – Joe Hisaishi (c-12/19) — Borderline —
• Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny – John Williams (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Elemental – Thomas Newman (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Saltburn – Anthony Willis (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• The Color Purple – Kris Bowers (c-12/21) — Borderline —
• The Holdovers – Mark Orton (c-5/11) — Doubtful —
• American Fiction – Laura Karpman (c-12/19) — Doubtful —

All of the Scores listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Music branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Film Editing

• Oppenheimer – Jennifer Lame (c-5/11, n-5/11, o-12/19) — Lock —
•  
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Thelma Schoonmaker (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Near Lock —
• Poor Things – Yorgos Mavropsaridis (c-10/17, n-12/19) — Good —
• Anatomy of a Fall – Laurent Sénéchal (c-9/20, n-1/16) — Good —
• Barbie – Nick Houy (c-5/11, n-9/20) — Borderline —
•  
• The Holdovers – Kevin Trent (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• The Zone of Interest – Paul Watts (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Maestro – Michelle Tesoro (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Saltburn – Victoria Boydell (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One – Eddie Hamilton (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Past Lives – Keith Fraase (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• May December – Affonso Gonçalves (c-8/13) — Borderline —
• American Fiction – Hilda Rasula (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – Michael Andrews (c-12/19) — Doubtful —
• The Color Purple – Jon Poll (c-5/11) — Doubtful —
• Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. – Oona Flaherty, Nick Moore (c-5/11) — Doubtful —

Best Cinematography

• Oppenheimer – Hoyte Van Hoytema (c-5/11, n-5/11, o-5/11) — Lock —
•  
• Maestro – Matthew Libatique (c-5/11, n-9/20) — Near Lock —
• Poor Things – Robbie Ryan (c-10/17, n-12/19) — Good —
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Rodrigo Prieto (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Good —
• El Conde – Edward Lachman (c-1/16, n-1/16) — Borderline —
•  
• The Zone of Interest – Lukasz Zal (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Saltburn – Linus Sandgren (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Barbie – Rodrigo Prieto (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Napoleon – Dariusz Wolski (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Asteroid City – Robert D. Yeoman (c-5/11) — Borderline —

Best Production Design

• Barbie – Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer (c-5/11, n-5/11, o-5/11) — Lock —
•  
• Poor Things – Shona Heath, James Price; Zsuzsa Mihalek (c-10/17, n-12/19) — Lock —
• Oppenheimer – Ruth De Jong; Claire Kaufman, Adam Willis (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Borderline —
• Asteroid City – Adam Stockhausen; Kris Moran (c-5/11, n-12/19) — Borderline —
• Wonka – Nathan Crowley; Laura Ng (c-5/11, n-9/20) — Borderline —
•  
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Jack Fisk; Adam Willis (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• The Zone of Interest – Chris Oddy; Joanna Kus, Katarzyna Sikora (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Saltburn – Neneh Lucia; Charlotte Dirickx (c-12/19) — Borderline —
• Napoleon – Arthur Max (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Maestro – Kevin Thompson; Rena DeAngelo (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• The Color Purple – Paul D. Austerberry; Larry Dias (c-5/11) — Borderline —

Best Costume Design

• Poor Things – Holly Waddington (c-10/17, n-12/19, o-12/19) — Lock —
•  
• Barbie – Jacqueline Durran (c-5/11, n-6/25) — Lock —
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Jacqueline West (c-5/11, n-1/16) — Borderline —
• Wonka – Lindy Hemming (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Borderline —
• Napoleon – Janty Yates (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Borderline —
•  
• Chevalier – Oliver Garcia (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• The Color Purple – Francine Jamison-Tanchuck (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Asteroid City – Milena Canonero (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Oppenheimer – Ellen Mirojnick (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Priscilla – Stacey Battat (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Maestro – Mark Bridges (c-5/11) — Borderline —

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• Poor Things (c-9/20, n-9/20, o-12/19) — Lock —
•  
• Oppenheimer (c-12/21, n-12/21) — Lock —
• Society of the Snow (c-12/21, n-12/21) — Good —
• Maestro (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Good —
• Golda (c-7/22, n-7/22) — Borderline —
•  
• Beau Is Afraid (c-12/21) — Borderline —
• Napoleon (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• The Last Voyage of the Demeter (c-12/21) — Borderline —
• Killers of the Flower Moon (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Ferrari (c-12/21) — Doubtful —

All of the Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Makeup branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Sound

• Oppenheimer (c-5/11, n-5/11, o-5/11) — Lock —
•  
• Maestro (c-5/11, n-9/20) — Good —
• Ferrari (c-12/19, n-1/16) — Good —
• Napoleon (c-5/11, n-11/20) — Borderline —
• Killers of the Flower Moon (c-5/11, n-5/11) — Borderline —
•  
• The Zone of Interest (c-9/20) — Borderline —
• Barbie (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• The Creator (c-12/21) — Borderline —
• Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• The Killer (c-12/19) — Doubtful —

All of the Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Sound branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Visual Effects

• The Creator (c-11/20, n-12/8, o-12/19) — Lock —
•  
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (c-5/11, n-1/16) — Good —
• Godzilla Minus One (c-12/8, n-12/19) — Borderline —
• Poor Things (c-12/8, n-1/21) — Borderline —
• Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (c-5/11, n-12/21) — Borderline —
•  
• Society of the Snow (c-12/8) — Borderline —
• Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Napoleon (c-5/11) — Borderline —
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (c-12/8) — Borderline —
• Rebel Moon: Part One – Child of Fire (c-12/8) — Borderline —

All of the Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Visual Effects branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

• Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (c-12/8)
• Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (c-12/8)
• Barbie (c-12/8)
• The Boys in the Boat (c-12/8)
• Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (c-12/8)
• Killers of the Flower Moon (c-12/8)
• The Marvels (c-5/11)
• Nyad (c-12/8)
• Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (c-5/11)
• Wonka (c-5/11)

Best International Feature Film

• The Zone of Interest – United Kingdom (c-12/7, n-12/19, o-12/19)
•  
• Perfect Days – Japan (c-12/7, n-12/19)
• The Taste of Things – France (c-12/7, n-12/19)
• The Teachers’ Lounge – Germany (c-12/7, n-12/19)
• Totem – Mexico (c-12/7, n-12/19)
•  
• 20 Days in Mariupol – Ukraine (c-12/7)
• Amerikatsi – Armenia (c-12/7)
• Fallen Leaves – Finland (c-12/7)
• Four Daughters – Tunisia (c-12/7)
• Godland – Iceland (c-12/7)
• Io Capitano – Italy (c-12/7)
• The Monk and the Gun – Bhutan (c-12/7)
• The Mother of All Lies – Morocco (c-12/7)
• The Promised Land – Denmark (c-12/7)
• Society of the Snow – Spain (c-12/7)

All of the Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Foreign Language Film branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

• 2018 – Everyone Is a Hero – India (c-12/7)
• About Dry Grasses – Turkey (c-12/7)
• Alexander – Albania (c-12/7)
• Alhamour H.A. – Saudi Arabia (c-12/7)
• Autobiography – Indonesia (c-12/7)
• Bad Living – Portugal (c-12/7)
• Banel & Adama – Senegal (c-12/7)
• Behind the Haystacks – Greece (c-12/7)
• Blaga’s Lessons – Bulgaria (c-12/7)
• The Breaking Ice – Singapore (c-12/7)
• Brothers – Czech Republic (c-12/7)
• The Burdened – Yemen (c-12/7)
• Bye Bye Tiberias – Palestine (c-12/7)
• Citizen Saint – Georgia (c-12/7)
• City of Wind – Mongolia (c-12/7)
• Concrete Utopia – South Korea (c-12/7)
• Cuarencena – Dominican Republic (c-12/7)
• The Delinquents – Argentina (c-12/7)
• Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World – Romania (c-12/7)
• The Duke and the Poet – Serbia (c-12/7)
• The Erection of Toribio Bardelli – Peru (c-12/7)
• Excursion – Bosnia and Herzegovina (c-12/7)
• Family Album – Uruguay (c-12/7)
• Four Souls of Coyote – Hungary (c-12/7)
• Glorious Ashes – Vietnam (c-12/7)
• Goodbye Julia – Sudan (c-12/7)
• Half Heaven – Cameroon (c-12/7)
• Halkara – Nepal (c-12/7)
• Hanging Gardens – Iraq (c-12/7)
• Housekeeping for Beginners – North Macedonia (c-12/7)
• I Have Electric Dreams – Costa Rica (c-12/7)
• In Flames – Pakistan (c-12/7)
• In the Shadow of Beirut – Ireland (c-12/7)
• Inshallah A Boy – Jordan (c-12/7)
• The Last Ashes – Luxembourg (c-12/7)
• The Last Runway 2, Comando Yaguarete – Paraguay (c-12/7)
• Mami Wata – Nigeria (c-12/7)
• Marry My Dead Body – Taiwan (c-12/7)
• The Missing – Philippines (c-12/7)
• Music Is My Life – Dr. Joseph Shabalala and Ladysmith Black Mambazo – South Africa (c-12/7)
• Mvera – Kenya (c-12/7)
• My Freedom – Latvia (c-12/7)
• The Night Guardian – Iran (c-12/7)
• No Ground beneath the Feet – Bangladesh (c-12/7)
• Not Friends – Thailand (c-12/7)
• Omen – Belgium (c-12/7)
• Opponent – Sweden (c-12/7)
• The Peasants – Poland (c-12/7)
• Photophobia – Slovakia (c-12/7)
• Pictures of Ghosts – Brazil (c-12/7)
• Riders – Slovenia (c-12/7)
• Rojek – Canada (c-12/7)
• The Settlers – Chile (c-12/7)
• Seven Blessings – Israel (c-12/7)
• The Shadow of the Sun – Venezuela (c-12/7)
• Shayda – Australia (c-12/7)
• Sira – Burkina Faso (c-12/7)
• Sirin – Montenegro (c-12/7)
• Slow – Lithuania (c-12/7)
• Smoke Sauna Sisterhood – Estonia (c-12/7)
• Songs of Earth – Norway (c-12/7)
• Sweet Dreams – Netherlands (c-12/7)
• Thunder – Switzerland (c-12/7)
• Thunders – Moldova (c-12/7)
• Tiger Stripes – Malaysia (c-12/7)
• Tito, Margot and Me – Panama (c-12/7)
• Traces – Croatia (c-12/7)
• Under the Hanging Tree – Namibia (c-12/7)
• Un Varón – Colombia (c-12/7)
• Vera – Austria (c-12/7)
• The Visitor – Bolivia (c-12/7)
• Voy! Voy! Voy! – Egypt (c-12/7)
• The Wandering Earth II – China (c-12/7)

Best Documentary Feature

• 20 Days in Mariupol (c-12/7, n-12/19, o-12/19)
•  
• American Symphony (c-12/7, n-12/19)
• Beyond Utopia (c-12/7, n-12/19)
• Stamped from the Beginning (c-12/7, n-1/16)
• Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (c-12/7, n-12/21)
•  
• 32 Sounds (c-12/7)
• Apolonia, Apolonia (c-12/7)
• Bobi Wine: The People’s President (c-12/7)
• Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy (c-12/7)
• The Eternal Memory (c-12/7)
• Four Daughters (c-12/7)
• Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (c-12/7)
• In the Rearview (c-12/7)
• A Still Small Voice (c-12/7)
• To Kill a Tiger (c-12/7)

All of the Documentary Features listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

• 1946: The Mistranslation That Shifted Culture (c-12/7)
• 26.2 to Life (c-12/7)
• After Sherman (c-12/7)
• Against the Tide (c-12/7)
• AKA Mr. Chow (c-12/7)
• Alexander (c-12/7)
• American: An Odyssey to 1947 (c-12/7)
• Americonned (c-12/7)
• And Miles to Go before I Sleep (c-12/7)
• Anhell69 (c-12/7)
• Anonymous Sister (c-12/7)
• Another Body (c-12/7)
• Anselm (c-12/7)
• Apache Blues: Welcome Home (c-12/7)
• Bad Press (c-12/7)
• Batata (c-12/7)
• Bella (c-12/7)
• Bella! (c-12/7)
• Bye Bye Tiberias (c-12/7)
• Canary (c-12/7)
• Carlos (c-12/7)
• Carterland (c-12/7)
• Close to Vermeer (c-12/7)
• Common Ground (c-12/7)
• A Compassionate Spy (c-12/7)
• Cup of Salvation (c-12/7)
• De Humani Corporis Fabrica (c-12/7)
• Deep Rising (c-12/7)
• The Deepest Breath (c-12/7)
• Deserters (c-12/7)
• The Disappearance of Shere Hite (c-12/7)
• Dosed: The Trip of a Lifetime (c-12/7)
• Downwind (c-12/7)
• Eat Bitter (c-12/7)
• The Echo (c-12/7)
• El Juicio (c-12/7)
• Elis & Tom – It Had to Be You (c-12/7)
• Every Body (c-12/7)
• Fantastic Machine (c-12/7)
• Finding Her Beat (c-12/7)
• Fioretta (c-12/7)
• For the Animals (c-12/7)
• Full Circle (c-12/7)
• Grandpa Was an Emperor (c-12/7)
• Have You Got It Yet? The Story of Syd Barrett and Pink Floyd (c-12/7)
• Here. Is. Better. (c-12/7)
• High & Low – John Galliano (c-12/7)
• The Holly (c-12/7)
• Holy Frit (c-12/7)
• I Got a Monster (c-12/7)
• If You Let Me Go (c-12/7)
• Imagining the Indian (c-12/7)
• Immediate Family (c-12/7)
• In the Company of Rose (c-12/7)
• In the Shadow of Beirut (c-12/7)
• In Viaggio: The Travels of Pope Francis (c-12/7)
• Incompatible with Life (c-12/7)
• Into the Spotlight (c-12/7)
• The Invention of the Other (c-12/7)
• Invisible Beauty (c-12/7)
• The Issue with Tissue – A Boreal Love Story (c-12/7)
• It Ain’t Over (c-12/7)
• Joan Baez I Am a Noise (c-12/7)
• Joonam (c-12/7)
• King Coal (c-12/7)
• Knights of Santiago (c-12/7)
• Kokomo City (c-12/7)
• The Lady Bird Diaries (c-12/7)
• Lakota Nation vs. United States (c-12/7)
• Land of My Dreams (c-12/7)
• The Last Rider (c-12/7)
• The League (c-12/7)
• Lift (c-12/7)
• Little Richard: I Am Everything (c-12/7)
• The Lost Weekend: A Love Story (c-12/7)
• The Melt Goes on Forever: The Art & Times of David Hammons (c-12/7)
• Menus-Plaisirs – Les Troisgros (c-12/7)
• The Mission (c-12/7)
• Mission Peace: The Staunch Moderates Documentary (c-12/7)
• The Mother of All Lies (c-12/7)
• Motherland (c-12/7)
• The Mountains (c-12/7)
• Mourning in Lod (c-12/7)
• Mr. Jimmy (c-12/7)
• Music Is My Life – Dr. Joseph Shabalala and Ladysmith Black Mambazo (c-12/7)
• My Name Is Happy (c-12/7)
• Nam June Paik: Moon Is the Oldest TV (c-12/7)
• North Circular (c-12/7)
• Occupied City (c-12/7)
• Orlando, My Political Biography (c-12/7)
• Our Body (c-12/7)
• Pacific Mother (c-12/7)
• The Padilla Affair (c-12/7)
• The Painting (c-12/7)
• Pay or Die (c-12/7)
• Periodical (c-12/7)
• Photophobia (c-12/7)
• Pianoforte (c-12/7)
• Pictures of Ghosts (c-12/7)
• The Pigeon Tunnel (c-12/7)
• Plan C (c-12/7)
• Radical Wolfe (c-12/7)
• Razing Liberty Square (c-12/7)
• Reality Winner (c-12/7)
• Refuge (c-12/7)
• A Revolution on Canvas (c-12/7)
• Rewind & Play (c-12/7)
• A Rising Fury (c-12/7)
• Robert Irwin: A Desert of Pure Feeling (c-12/7)
• Rojek (c-12/7)
• Sam Now (c-12/7)
• Samuel and the Light (c-12/7)
• The Secret Cities of Mark Kistler (c-12/7)
• Shot in the Arm (c-12/7)
• Show Her the Money (c-12/7)
• Silver Dollar Road (c-12/7)
• Sly (c-12/7)
• The Smell of Money (c-12/7)
• Smoke Sauna Sisterhood (c-12/7)
• A Song Film by Kishi Bashi – ‘Omoiyari’ (c-12/7)
• Songs of Earth (c-12/7)
• Sound of the Police (c-12/7)
• Splice Here: A Projected Odyssey (c-12/7)
• State of the Unity (c-12/7)
• Stephen Curry: Underrated (c-12/7)
• A Storm Foretold (c-12/7)
• Subject (c-12/7)
• Symphony of the Holocaust (c-12/7)
• Taylor Mac’s 24-Decade History of Popular Music (c-12/7)
• They Shot the Piano Player (c-12/7)
• This Much We Know (c-12/7)
• Thy Neighbours (c-12/7)
• Tito, Margot and Me (c-12/7)
• Total Trust (c-12/7)
• Twice Colonized (c-12/7)
• Umberto Eco: A Library of the World (c-12/7)
• Uncharitable (c-12/7)
• Unconditional (c-12/7)
• Under the Sky of Damascus (c-12/7)
• Unfinished Business (c-12/7)
• Unseen (c-12/7)
• Unzipped: An Autopsy of American Inequality (c-12/7)
• Victim/Suspect (c-12/7)
• We Dare to Dream (c-12/7)
• What the Hell Happened to Blood, Sweat & Tears? (c-12/7)
• While the Green Grass Grows (c-12/7)
• While We Watched (c-12/7)
• Who I Am Not (c-12/7)
• Wild Beauty: Mustang Spirit of the West (c-12/7)
• Yoshiki under the Sky (c-12/7)
• You Were My First Boyfriend (c-12/7)
• Your Fat Friend (c-12/7)

Best Documentary Short Subject

• The ABCs of Book Banning (c-12/21, n-1/16, o-1/16)
•  
• Camp Courage (c-12/21, n-1/16)
• Deciding Vote (c-12/21, n-1/16)
• The Last Repair Shop (c-12/21, n-1/16)
• Last Song from Kabul (c-12/21, n-1/16)
•  
• The Barber of Little Rock (c-12/21)
• Bear (c-12/21)
• Between Earth & Sky (c-12/21)
• Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games (c-12/21)
• How We Get Free (c-12/21)
• If Dreams Were Lightning: Rural Healthcare Crisis (c-12/21)
• Islands in Between (c-12/21)
• Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó (c-12/21)
• Oasis (c-12/21)
• Wings of Dust (c-12/21)

All of the Short Subjects listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Animated Short Film

• Letter to a Pig (c-12/21, n-1/16, o-1/16)
•  
• Boom (c-12/21, n-1/16)
• Once Upon a Studio (c-12/21, n-1/16)
• Pete (c-12/21, n-1/16)
• War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko (c-12/21, n-1/16)
•  
• 27 (c-12/21)
• Eeva (c-12/21)
• Humo (Smoke) (c-12/21)
• I’m Hip (c-12/21)
• A Kind of Testament (c-12/21)
• Koerkorter (Dog Apartment) (c-12/21)
• Ninety-Five Senses (c-12/21)
• Our Uniform (c-12/21)
• Pachyderme (c-12/21)
• Wild Summon (c-12/21)

All of the Animated Short Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Live Action Short Film

• Red, White and Blue (c-12/21, n-1/16, o-1/16)
•  
• The Anne Frank Gift Shop (c-12/21, n-1/16)
• Invincible (c-12/21, n-1/16)
• Strange Way of Life (c-12/21, n-1/16)
• The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (c-12/21, n-1/16)
•  
• The After (c-12/21)
• An Avocado Pit (c-12/21)
• Bienvenidos a Los Angeles (c-12/21)
• Dead Cat (c-12/21)
• Good Boy (c-12/21)
• Invisible Border (c-12/21)
• Knight of Fortune (c-12/21)
• The One Note Man (c-12/21)
• The Shepherd (c-12/21)
• Yellow (c-12/21)

All of the Live Action Short Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

NEW: May 18, 2023

It’s always daunting coming up with your first list. What sounds good on paper might not wound good in practice. As such, several items on this list should be taken with a grain of salt as we have so little information to go off of. We’ll refine and adapt over the coming months.

UPDATED: June 27, 2023

Not a lot of changes were made, mostly just removing non-contenders from the rolls and most of those were in the craft categories. There’s been a change in my winner prediction for Animated Feature (Spider-Man movies into first), a nomination change in Supporting Actress (Lily Gladstone is in over Emily Blunt), a nomination change in Original Screenplay (Asteroid City is replaced by Napoleon), a nomination change in Original Score (say hello Lee, goodbye Asteroid City, no change in composer), and a nomination change in Costume Design (Barbie is in, The Little Mermaid is out).

UPDATED: July 23, 2023

Still not a lot of changes being made a few titles got pushed out of contention, but otherwise, there haven’t been a lot of changes. Expect more sometime in the next couple of months.

UPDATED: August 13, 2023

With the fall festivals just around the corner, there aren’t expected to be a lot of changes. I’ve added May December and made a handful of minor changes.

UPDATED: September 20, 2023

Now that the festivals are over for the year (at least the important ones), we only have a small number of films that have not been seen: The Color Purple, Napoleon, and Wonka are still question marks. And I suspect from something another blogger Vaguebooked, I suspect that Ridley Scott’s French epic is a stinker. As such, it’s been largely excised from my predictions. I also removed Dune since it’s been moved back to 2024. There were several other changes with my most significant change in predictions since we started. That said, those aforementioned question marks are still out there and there’s the critics who could throw things into a new direction still. You may also notice some other questionable situations. Lily Gladstone is campaigning in lead, but might end up in support if they don’t feel she belongs in lead. Barbie is being campaigned in original screenplay in spite of history favoring an Adapted Screenplay placement. It would also be an easier road to victory in adapted, but the studio does what it wants.

UPDATED: October 17, 2023

The only films that haven’t been seen yet that could crash with disastrous reviews are The Color Purple, Napoleon, and Wonka. There are really no other major contenders left to screen. As such, there’s very little movement this month. My impressions of Poor Things have improved slightly and I’ve added it to several categories, but the only real change in terms of nominations was putting the film in the Best Picture slate. I honestly don’t think the film can overcome a lot of strong competition in other categories. I also removed titles like Rye Lane and A Thousand and One, which should have already started taking off by now, but haven’t. There aren’t many changes here at all.

UPDATED: November 20, 2023

While everything has now been screened (though the jury is still out on Wonka), it remains to be seen how critics will approach this year and that could change a lot of prediction calculus. I’ve made very few changes this time: removing Lee entirely and moving around a few nominees for various films. As such, it doesn’t look like very much movement this month, but next month, I suspect there will be some major changes.

UPDATED: DECEMBER 19, 2023

Everything has been seen. The precursors are coming out in a deluge and it’s time to solidify some of our predictions. While there are still quite a few question marks, I think I can say I’m pretty close to final selections with this list. We still have to wait for the shortlists to release on Thursday, but I doubt they will result in too many major changes. I also want to clarify why there’s a difference in my list regarding Barbie‘s screenplay and a lot of others. The Academy is notorious for classifying things submitted in original as adapted even if they’ve played all season as original screenplay. I think Barbie will fall into this category. While the category doesn’t get an adequate description in the rules, the general guidelines they have followed is that films based on characters or stories previously produced (or even not produced in the case of One Night in Miami…) are considered adapted. Barbie goes to great lengths to recognize famous Barbie dolls of the past by name and costume. The entire film is based on a product that has been produced for decades. That’s why I remain firm in my belief that the Academy is ultimately going to settle on Adapted for the film, which is why it’s on my Original list, but not nominated.

My nominations in Original Song, International Feature, and Documentary Feature are suppositions based on what could be eligible in the case of Original Song or what is on the longlists for the other two categories. I’ll make adjustments once the shortlists are announced.

UPDATED: DECEMBER 21, 2023

With the shortlists having been revealed in ten categories, I’ve updated my predictions based on them. While some of my predictions didn’t make it to the shortlist, a lot of them did, so there aren’t a lot of changes with this update. I haven’t made any predictions in the short film categories yet as I want to research their contents before hazarding a guess.

UPDATED: JANUARY 19, 2024

We’re in the home stretch. The nominations are next week and I’m in the process of finalizing my predictions for the year. I’ve added descriptors to each potential nominee as outlined below. While these are my (near) final predictions, I usually tinker with them and sometimes make adjustments as I write my annual Oscar Morning article, which should be going live on Monday over at Awards Landscape.