UPDATED: MARCH 5, 2024

I don’t foresee any changes to these predictions.

LEGEND:
Winner Prediction (c-Win Pred Date Set) — Chance at Win —
Other Nominees — Chance at Win —

CHANCE AT WIN:
Guarantee: I wouldn’t bet on anything else.
Certain: Almost guaranteed, but there’s always a kernel of doubt.
Likely: The most likely winner, but a spoiler is waiting in the wings.
Toss Up: This race is too close to call for all those labelled toss ups.
Spoiler: This is a title that isn’t necessarily a sure thing, but is running close enough it could upset the predicted victor.
Doubtful: It’s not likely these titles will win, but there’s still a possibility.
Long Shot: There is very little likelihood that they’ll win.

Best Picture

• Oppenheimer – Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, Christopher Nolan (o-12/19) — Certain —
•  
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Dan Friedkin, Bradley Thomas, Martin Scorsese, Daniel Lupi — Spoiler —
• The Zone of Interest – James Wilson — Spoiler —
• Anatomy of a Fall – Marie-Ange Luciani, David Thion — Spoiler —
• The Holdovers – Mark Johnson — Spoiler —
• Barbie – David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley, Robbie Brenner — Spoiler —
• Poor Things – Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone — Spoiler —
• Past Lives – David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon, Pamela Koffler — Doubtful —
• American Fiction – Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson, Jermaine Johnson — Doubtful —
• Maestro – Bradley Cooper, Steven Spielberg, Fred Berner, Amy Durning, Kristie Macosko Krieger — Doubtful —

Best Animated Feature

• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal (o-6/25) — Likely —
•  
• The Boy and the Heron – Hayao Miyazaki, Toshio Suzuki — Spoiler —
• Nimona – Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Karen Ryan, Julie Zackary — Doubtful —
• Robot Dreams – Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé, Sandra Tapia Díaz — Long Shot —
• Elemental – Peter Sohn, Denise Ream — Long Shot —

Best Directing

• Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan (o-12/19) — Guarantee —
•  
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Martin Scorsese — Spoiler —
• Poor Things – Yorgos Lanthimos — Spoiler —
• The Zone of Interest – Jonathan Glazer — Spoiler —
• Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet — Doubtful —

Best Actor

• Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer (o-2/24) — Toss Up —
•  
• Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers — Toss Up —
• Bradley Cooper – Maestro — Spoiler —
• Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction — Spoiler —
• Colman Domingo – Rustin — Doubtful —

Best Actress

• Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (o-2/24) — Toss Up —
•  
• Emma Stone – Poor Things — Toss Up —
• Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall — Spoiler —
• Carey Mulligan – Maestro — Doubtful —
• Annette Bening – Nyad — Long Shot —

Best Supporting Actor

• Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer (o-7/22) — Certain —
•  
• Ryan Gosling – Barbie — Spoiler —
• Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things — Spoiler —
• Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon — Doubtful —
• Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction — Long Shot —

Best Supporting Actress

• Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers (o-12/19) — Guarantee —
•  
• Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer — Spoiler —
• America Ferrera – Barbie — Spoiler —
• Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple — Spoiler —
• Jodie Foster – Nyad — Doubtful —

Best Original Screenplay

• Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet, Arthur Harari (o-3/4) — Toss Up —
•  
• The Holdovers – David Hemingson — Toss Up —
• Past Lives – Celine Song — Spoiler —
• May December – Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik — Doubtful —
• Maestro – Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer — Doubtful —

Best Adapted Screenplay

• American Fiction – Cord Jefferson (o-3/4) — Toss Up —
•  
• Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan — Toss Up —
• Barbie – Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach — Toss Up —
• Poor Things – Tony McNamara — Toss Up —
• The Zone of Interest – Jonathan Glazer — Toss Up —

Best Original Song

• What Was I Made For? (Billie Eilish, Finneas O’Connell) – Barbie (o-12/19) — Toss Up —
•  
• I’m Just Ken (Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt) – Barbie — Toss Up —
• It Never Went Away (Jon Batiste, Dan Wilson) – American Symphony — Spoiler —
• Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People) (Scott George) – Killers of the Flower Moon — Doubtful —
• The Fire Inside (Diane Warren) – Flamin’ Hot — Long Shot —

Best Original Score

• Oppenheimer – Ludwig Göransson (o-1/16) — Likely —
•  
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Robbie Robertson — Spoiler —
• Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny – John Williams — Spoiler —
• Poor Things – Jerskin Fendrix — Spoiler —
• American Fiction – Laura Karpman — Long Shot —

Best Film Editing

• Oppenheimer – Jennifer Lame (o-12/19) — Likely —
•  
• Anatomy of a Fall – Laurent Sénéchal — Spoiler —
• Poor Things – Yorgos Mavropsaridis — Spoiler —
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Thelma Schoonmaker — Doubtful —
• The Holdovers – Kevin Tent — Long Shot —

Best Cinematography

• Oppenheimer – Hoyte van Hoytema (o-5/11) — Likely —
•  
• Poor Things – Robbie Ryan — Spoiler —
• Maestro – Matthew Libatique — Spoiler —
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Rodrigo Prieto — Spoiler —
• El Conde – Edward Lachman — Doubtful —

Best Production Design

• Poor Things – Production Design: James Price, Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek (o-2/11) — Toss Up —
•  
• Barbie – Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer — Toss Up —
• Oppenheimer – Production Design: Ruth De Jong; Set Decoration: Claire Kaufman — Spoiler —
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis — Spoiler —
• Napoleon – Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Elli Griff — Doubtful —

Best Costume Design

• Poor Things – Holly Waddington (o-12/19) — Toss Up —
•  
• Barbie – Jacqueline Durran — Toss Up —
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Jacqueline West — Spoiler —
• Napoleon – Janty Yates, Dave Crossman — Doubtful —
• Oppenheimer – Ellen Mirojnick — Doubtful —

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• Poor Things – Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier, Josh Weston (o-12/19) — Likely —
•  
• Maestro – Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou, Lori McCoy-Bell — Spoiler —
• Oppenheimer – Luisa Abel — Spoiler —
• Society of the Snow – Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí, Montse Ribé — Spoiler —
• Golda – Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby, Ashra Kelly-Blue — Spoiler —

Best Sound

• Oppenheimer – Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo, Kevin O’Connell (o-3/5) — Toss Up —
•  
• The Zone of Interest – Tarn Willers, Johnnie Burn — Toss Up —
• Maestro – Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic — Spoiler —
• Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One – Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor — Spoiler —
• The Creator – Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic — Doubtful —

Best Visual Effects

• The Creator – Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts, Neil Corbould (o-12/19) — Toss Up —
•  
• Godzilla Minus One – Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi, Tatsuji Nojima — Toss Up —
• Guardians of the Galay Vol. 3 – Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams, Theo Bialek — Toss Up —
• Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One – Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland, Neil Corbould — Doubtful —
• Napoleon – Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco, Neil Corbould — Doubtful —

Best International Feature Film

• The Zone of Interest – United Kingdom (o-12/19) — Certain —
•  
• Society of the Snow – Spain — Spoiler —
• Perfect Days – Japan — Spoiler —
• The Teachers’ Lounge – Germany — Spoiler —
• Io Capitano – Italy — Spoiler —

Best Documentary Feature

• 20 Days in Mariupol – Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner, Raney Aronson-Rath (o-12/19) — Likely —
•  
• Bobi Wine: The People’s President – Moses Bwayo, Christopher Sharp, John Battsek — Spoiler —
• Four Daughters – Kaouther Ben Hania, Nadim Cheikhrouha — Spoiler —
• To Kill a Tiger – Nisha Pahuja, Cornelia Principe, David Oppenheim — Spoiler —
• The Eternal Memory – Nominees to be determined — Spoiler —

Best Documentary Short Subject

• The Last Repair Shop – Ben Proudfoot, Kris Bowers (o-2/11) — Toss Up —
•  
• The ABCs of Book Banning – Sheila Nevins Trish Adlesic — Toss Up —
• The Barber of Little Rock – John Hoffman, Christine Turner — Toss Up —
• Islands in Between – S. Leo Chiang, Jean Tsien — Doubtful —
• Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó – Sean Wang, Sam Davis — Long Shot —

Best Animated Short Film

• War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko – Dave Mullins, Brad Booker (o-2/21) — Toss Up —
•  
• Letter to a Pig – Tal Kantor, Amit R. Gicelter — Toss Up —
• Our Uniform – Yegane Moghaddam — Doubtful —
• Ninety-Five Senses – Jerusha Hess, Jared Hess — Doubtful —
• Pachyderme – Stéphanie Clément, Marc Rius — Long Shot —

Best Live Action Short Film

• Red, White and Blue – Nazrin Choudhury, Sara McFarlane (o-1/16) — Toss Up —
•  
• The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar – Wes Anderson, Steven Rales — Toss Up —
• Knight of Fortune – Lasse Lyskjær Noer, Christian Norlyk — Spoiler —
• The After – Misan Harriman, Nicky Bentham — Spoiler —
• Invincible – Vincent René-Lortie, Samuel Caron — Doubtful —

UPDATED: JANUARY 23, 2024

With the nominations just announced, below are my formal winner predictions, which haven’t changed at all since I last made them.

And then I thought about it and decided that the snub of Greta Gerwig may well lead to Barbie winning Adapted Screenplay.

UPDATED: FEBRUARY 26, 2024

Almost all of the precursors are out with a handful of craft ones left to go. These choices are starting to solidify, hence my decision to add the win chances to each of the nominees, ranked in order of victory likelihood.