Looking at Film from Every Angle

98th Academy Awards (2025): The Hopefuls

Updated: January 20, 2026

The nominations are only two days away and I’m putting the final touch on my predictions for our final major posting before that happens. As such, I don’t have a lot to say about the changes below except that it’s based on a lot of the shifts and focus changes of the last couple of months. Sinners and One Battle are both shooting for record-setting/tying nominations hauls, though Paul Thomas Anderson’s film isn’t likely to accomplish that. Sinners just might. In addition, I’m adding the chances at nomination to each of those as outlined below.

Lock: It would be a major shock if these selections weren’t nominated. The buzz would be deafening.
Near Lock: These are selections that I think are pretty certain, but I cannot quite declare them as guarantees.
Good: There isn’t much of a chance that this nominee will be left off the list, but stranger things have happened.
Borderline: These are the achievements that I think are fighting for the slots not taken up by the locks, near locks and goods above. None of these selections are safe and could be bumped off by any other title with the “borderline” description.
Doubtful: These are outside contenders that have been in the conversation, but whose prospects have dimmed over time. They remain on the list because sometimes the Academy does some strange stuff.

Everything from Best Picture down through Best International Feature have been placed in the order from most to least likely to be nominated. This year, I don’t have much confidence in the order presented as things are very fluid this year.

NOMINATIONS		AWARDS
Sinners One Battle After Another Frankenstein Hamnet Marty Supreme Sentimental Value Train Dreams The Secret Agent Wicked: For Good Bugonia F1 It Was Just an Accident	16 13 11 10 7 – 5 4 – 3 – –	One Battle After Another Sinners Frankenstein All the Empty Rooms Avatar: Fire and Ash Hamnet Jane Austen’s Period Drama Little Amélie or the Character of Rain Marty Supreme Sentimental Value The Perfect Neighbor The Quinta’s Ghost Weapons	5 – 4 1 – – – – – – – – –

Best Picture

One Battle After Another – Warner Bros. (dir. Paul Thomas Anderson) (c-4/17, n-4/17, o-10/19) — Lock —
Sinners – Warner Bros. (dir. Ryan Coogler) (c-4/17, n-5/19) — Lock —
Marty Supreme – A24 (dir. Josh Safdie) (c-4/17, n-11/16) — Near Lock —
Hamnet – Focus Features (dir. Chloé Zhao) (c-4/17, n-5/19) — Near Lock —
Sentimental Value – Neon (dir. Joachim Trier) (c-4/17, n-6/17) — Good —
The Secret Agent – Neon (dir. Kleber Mendonça Filho) (c-12/14, n-12/14) — Borderline —
Bugonia – Focus (dir. Yorgos Lanthimos) (c-4/17, n-1/11) — Borderline —
Frankenstein – Netflix (dir. Guillermo del Toro) (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Borderline —
It Was Just an Accident – Neon (dir. Jafar Panahi) (c-9/22, n-11/16) — Borderline —
Train Dreams – Netflix (dir. Clint Bentley) (c-11/18, n-12/14) — Borderline —
No Other Choice – Neon (dir. Park Chan-wook) (c-12/14) — Borderline —
Weapons – Warner Bros. (dir. Zach Cregger) (c-1/19) — Borderline —
The Voice of Hind Rajab – WILLA (dir. Kaouther Ben Hania) (c-9/22) — Borderline —
Testament of Ann Lee – Searchlight (dir. Mona Fastvold) (c-9/22) — Borderline —
Sirât – Neon (dir. Oliver Laxe) (c-12/14) — Borderline —
Avatar: Fire and Ash – 20th Century (dir. James Cameron) (c-4/17) — Doubtful —
Sorry, Baby – A24 (dir. Eva Victor) (c-1/19) — Doubtful —
Wicked: For Good – Universal (dir. Jon M. Chu) (c-4/17) — Doubtful —

Best Animated Feature

Little Amélie or the Character of Rain – GKIDS (c-9/22, n-12/14, o-12/14) — Good —
Zootopia 2 – Disney (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Good —
Arco – Neon (c-9/22, n-12/14) — Good —
Elio – Pixar (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Borderline —
KPop Demon Hunters – Netflix (c-4/17, n-1/11) — Borderline —
A Magnificent Life – Sony Pictures Classics (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Scarlet – Sony Pictures Classics (c-9/22) — Borderline —
Bad Guys 2 – Universal (c-9/22) — Borderline —
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle – Aniplex of America (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Boys Go to Jupiter – Cartuna (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Endless Cookie – Obscured (c-4/17) — Borderline —
In Your Dreams – Netflix (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Dog Man – DreamWorks (c-4/17) — Borderline —
100 Meters – GKIDS (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
All Operators Are Currently Unavailable – Kaos (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Black Butterflies – Pink Parrot Media (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc – Sony (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
ChaO – GKIDS (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Colorful Stage! The Movie: A Miku Who Can’t Sing – GKIDS (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
David – Angel (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Dog of God – Cartuna (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Dragon Heart – Adventures Beyond This World – Freestyle (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Fixed – Netflix (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie – Universal (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
The Legend of Hei 2 – GKIDS (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Light of the World – The Salvation Poem Project (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Lost in Starlight – Netflix (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Mahavatar Narsimha – Prathyangira Cinemas (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Night of the Zoopocalypse – Viva Kids (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Olivia & las Nubes – Miyu (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Out of the Nest – Well Go USA (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Slide – TBD (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants – Paramount (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
Stitch Head – Briarcliff (c-11/21) — Doubtful —
The Twits – Netflix (Jellyfish) (c-4/17) — Doubtful —

All of the Animated Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Directing

One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson (c-4/17, n-9/22, o-10/19) — Lock —
Sinners – Ryan Coogler (c-4/17, n-12/14) — Near Lock —
Hamnet – Chloé Zhao (c-4/17, n-5/19) — Near Lock —
Marty Supreme – Josh Safdie (c-4/17, n-12/14) — Good —
Sentimental Value – Joachim Trier (c-4/17, n-12/14) — Borderline —
Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro (c-4/17) — Borderline —
It Was Just an Accident – Jafar Panahi (c-9/22) — Borderline —
Bugonia – Yorgos Lanthimos (c-4/17) — Borderline —
No Other Choice – Park Chan-wook (c-12/14) — Borderline —
Train Dreams – Clint Bentley (c-11/18) — Borderline —
The Secret Agent – Kleber Mendonça Filho (c-12/14) — Borderline —
The Voice of Hind Rajab – Kaouther Ben Hania (c-9/22) — Borderline —
Avatar: Fire and Ash – James Cameron (c-4/17) — Doubtful —
Sirât – Oliver Laxe (c-12/14) — Doubtful —
Testament of Ann Lee – Mona Fastvold (c-9/22) — Doubtful —

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme (c-4/17, n-4/17, o-1/11) — Lock —
Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Lock —
Michael B. Jordan – Sinners (c-4/17, n-6/17) — Near Lock —
Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent (c-11/18, n-12/14) — Good —
Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon (c-4/17, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Joel Edgerton – Train Dreams (c-11/18) — Borderline —
Jesse Plemons – Bugonia (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Lee Byung-hun – No Other Choice (c-12/14) — Borderline —
Dwayne Johnson – The Smashing Machine (c-4/17) — Doubtful —
Jeremy Allen White – Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (c-4/17) — Doubtful —
Oscar Isaac – Frankenstein (c-4/17) — Doubtful —

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley – Hamnet (c-4/17, n-9/22, o-1/20) — Lock —
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (c-11/18, n-12/14) — Good —
Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value (c-4/17, n-9/22) — Borderline —
Emma Stone – Bugonia (c-4/17, n-9/22) — Borderline —
Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue (c-1/19, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another (c-12/14) — Borderline —
Amanda Seyfried – Testament of Ann Lee (c-9/22) — Borderline —
Jennifer Lawrence – Die My Love (c-9/22) — Borderline —
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked: For Good (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Tessa Thompson – Hedda (c-12/14) — Doubtful —
Lucy Liu – Rosemead (c-4/17) — Doubtful —

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another (c-4/17, n-9/22, o-12/14) — Lock —
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Near Lock —
Sean Penn – One Battle After Another (c-4/17, n-12/14) — Good —
Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value (c-4/17, n-6/17) — Borderline —
Miles Caton – Sinners (c-1/19, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Paul Mescal – Hamnet (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Delroy Lindo – Sinners (c-12/14) — Borderline —
Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly (c-12/14) — Borderline —
Andrew Scott – Blue Moon (c-4/17) — Borderline —
William H. Macy – Train Dreams (c-11/18) — Doubtful —

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Madigan – Weapons (c-8/17) — Borderline —
Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another (c-4/17, n-1/11) — Borderline —
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value (c-12/14, n-12/14) — Borderline —
Odessa A’zion – Marty Supreme (c-12/14, n-1/11) — Borderline —
Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners (c-12/14, n-12/14) — Borderline —
Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Emily Watson – Hamnet (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Gwyneth Paltrow – Marty Supreme (c-4/17) — Doubtful —

Best Original Screenplay

Sinners – Ryan Coogler (c-4/17, n-5/19, o-12/14) — Lock —
Marty Supreme – Josh Safdie, Ronald Bronstein (c-4/17, n-12/14) — Lock —
Sentimental Value – Joachim Trier, Skil Vogt (c-4/17, n-10/19) — Near Lock —
The Secret Agent – Kleber Mendonça Filho (c-12/14, n-1/11) — Borderline —
It Was Just an Accident – Jafar Panahi (c-9/22, n-9/22) — Borderline —
Sorry, Baby – Eva Victor (c-12/14) — Borderline —
Weapons – Zach Cregger (c-12/14) — Borderline —
Testament of Ann Lee – Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold (c-9/22) — Borderline —
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You – Mary Bronstein (c-12/14) — Borderline —
Blue Moon – Robert Kaplow (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Jay Kelly – Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer (c-4/17) — Borderline —
The Voice of Hind Rajab – Kaouther Ben Hania (c-9/22) — Borderline —

Best Adapted Screenplay

One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson (c-4/17, n-4/17, o-4/17) — Lock —
Hamnet – Chloé Zhao (c-4/17, n-5/19) — Near Lock —
Bugonia – Jang Joon-hwan, Will Tracy (c-4/17, n-11/16) — Good —
Train Dreams – Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar (c-11/18, n-12/14) — Borderline —
Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Borderline —
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery – Rian Johnson (c-4/17) — Borderline —
No Other Choice – Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, Jahye Lee, Don McKellar (c-12/14) — Borderline —

Best Casting

Sinners – Francine Maisler (c-4/17, n-12/14, o-1/20) — Lock —
One Battle After Another – Cassandra Kulukundis (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Lock —
Marty Supreme – Jennifer Venditti (c-4/17, n-1/11) — Good —
Hamnet – Nina Gold (c-4/17, n-5/19) — Good —
Frankenstein – Robin D. Cook (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Borderline —
Sentimental Value – Yngvill Kolset Haga, Avy Kaufman (c-4/17) — Borderline —
The Secret Agent – Gabriel Domingues (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Weapons – Allison Jones (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Wicked: For Good – Tiffany Little Canfield, Bernard Telsey (c-4/17) — Doubtful —
Sirât – TBD (c-4/17) — Doubtful —

All of the films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Casting branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Original Song

I Lied to You – Sinners (c-12/16, n-12/16, o-12/16) — Lock —
Golden – KPop Demon Hunters (c-12/16, n-12/16) — Near Lock —
Dear Me – Diane Warren: Relentless (c-12/16, n-12/16) — Good —
The Girl in the Bubble – Wicked: For Good (c-12/16, n-12/16) — Borderline —
Train Dreams – Train Dreams (c-12/16, n-1/20) — Borderline —
No Place Like Home – Wicked: For Good (c-12/16) — Borderline —
Last Time (I Seen the Sun) – Sinners (c-12/16) — Borderline —
Dream As One – Avatar: Fire and Ash (c-12/16) — Borderline —
Highest 2 Lowest – Highest 2 Lowest (c-12/16) — Borderline —
As Alive As You Need Me to Be – Tron: Ares (c-12/16) — Borderline —
Drive – F1 (c-12/16) — Borderline —
Salt Them Sour Then Sweet – Come See Me in the Good Light (c-12/16) — Doubtful —
Our Love – The Ballad of Wallis Island (c-12/16) — Doubtful —
Dying to Live – Billy Idol Should Be Dead (c-12/16) — Doubtful —
Sweet Dreams of Joy – Viva Verdi! (c-12/16) — Doubtful —

All of the Songs listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Music branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Original Score

Sinners – Ludwig Göransson (c-4/17, n-9/22, o-1/20) — Lock —
One Battle After Another – Jonny Greenwood (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Near Lock —
Frankenstein – Alexandre Desplat (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Borderline —
Hamnet – Max Richter (c-4/17, n-5/19) — Borderline —
Train Dreams – Bryce Dessner (c-11/18, n-12/14) — Borderline —
Sirât – Kangding Ray (c-12/14) — Borderline —
Bugonia – Jerskin Fendrix (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Avatar: Fire and Ash – Simon Franglen (c-4/17) — Borderline —
F1 – Hans Zimmer (c-12/14) — Borderline —
Wicked: For Good – John Powell, Stephen Schwartz (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Tron: Ares – Nine Inch Nails (c-12/16) — Borderline —
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery – Nathan Johnson (c-12/16) — Doubtful —
Marty Supreme – Daniel Lopatin (c-12/14) — Borderline —
A House of Dynamite – Volker Bertelmann (c-12/16) — Borderline —
Jay Kelly – Nicholas Britell (c-12/16) — Doubtful —
Hedda – Hildur Guðnadóttir (c-12/16) — Doubtful —
Diane Warren: Relentless – Lesley Barber (c-12/16) — Doubtful —
Captain America: Brave New World – Laura Karpman (c-12/16) — Doubtful —
Nuremberg – Brian Tyler (c-12/16) — Doubtful —
Truth and Treason – Aaron Zigman (c-12/16) — Doubtful —

All of the Scores listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Music branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Film Editing

One Battle After Another – Andy Jurgensen (c-4/17, n-4/17, o-12/14) — Lock —
Sinners – Michael P. Shawver (c-4/17, n-11/16) — Lock —
F1 – Stephen Mirrione (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Near Lock —
Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie (c-4/17, n-12/14) — Borderline —
Hamnet – Affonso Gonçalves, Chloé Zhao (c-4/17, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Frankenstein – Evan Schiff (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Sentimental Value – Olivier Bugge Coutté (c-4/17) — Borderline —
The Secret Agent – Matheus Alves, Tomaz Alves Souza (c-12/14) — Borderline —
Weapons – Joe Murphy (c-1/19) — Borderline —
Bugonia – Yorgos Mavropsaridis (c-4/17) — Borderline —
A House of Dynamite – Kirk Baxter (c-1/19) — Borderline —
No Other Choice – Kim Ho-bin, Kim Sang-beom (c-12/14) — Borderline —
Train Dreams – Parker Laramie (c-11/18) — Doubtful —
Testament of Ann Lee – Sofía Subercaseaux (c-9/22) — Doubtful —
The Voice of Hind Rajab – Qutaiba Barhamji, Kaouther Ben Hania, Maxime Mathis (c-9/22) — Doubtful —
Wicked: For Good – Myron Kerstein (c-4/17) — Doubtful —

Best Cinematography

Sinners – Autumn Durald Arkapaw (c-4/17, n-12/14, o-12/14) — Lock —
Train Dreams – Adolpho Veloso (c-11/18, n-12/14) — Near Lock —
Frankenstein – Dan Laustsen (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Borderline —
Hamnet – Lukasz Zal (c-4/17, n-5/19) — Borderline —
One Battle After Another – Michael Bauman (c-4/17, n-9/22) — Borderline —
Bugonia – Robbie Ryan (c-4/17) — Borderline —
F1 – Claudio Miranda (c-12/16) — Borderline —
Marty Supreme – Darius Khondji (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Nouvelle Vague – David Chambille (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Sirât – Mauro Herce (c-12/16) — Borderline —
Wicked: For Good – Alice Brooks (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Sound of Falling – Fabian Gamper (c-12/16) — Borderline —
Sentimental Value – Kasper Tuxen Andersen (c-12/16) — Borderline —
Die My Love – Seamus McGarvey (c-12/16) — Borderline —
Ballad of a Small Player – James Friend (c-12/16) — Doubtful —
Song Sung Blue – Amy Vincent (c-12/16) — Doubtful —

All of the Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Cinematogrpahers branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Production Design

Frankenstein – Tamara Deverell; Shane Vieau (c-4/17, n-4/17, o-4/17) — Lock —
Sinners – Hannah Beachler; Monique Champagne (c-4/17, n-12/14) — Near Lock —
Hamnet – Fiona Crombie; Ruthie Falconer (c-4/17, n-5/19) — Good —
Wicked: For Good – Nathan Crowley; Lee Sandales (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Borderline —
The Fantastic Four: First Steps – Kasra Farahani; Jille Azis (c-4/17, n-7/20) — Borderline —
Avatar: Fire and Ash – Dylan Cole, Ben Procter; Vanessa Cole (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Marty Supreme – Jack Fisk; Adam Willis (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Testament of Ann Lee – Sam Bader; Lauren Doss, Mercédesz Nagyváradi (c-9/22) — Borderline —
The Phoenician Scheme – Adam Stockhausen; Anna Pinnock (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Train Dreams – Alexandra Schaller; Melisa Jusufi (c-11/18) — Doubtful —
Kiss of the Spider Woman – Scott Chambliss; Andrew Baseman (c-4/17) — Doubtful —
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale – Donal Woods; Linda Wilson (c-4/17) — Doubtful —

Best Costume Design

Frankenstein – Kate Hawley (c-4/17, n-4/17, o-4/17) — Lock —
Sinners – Ruth E. Carter (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Near Lock —
Wicked: For Good – Paul Tazewell (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Good —
Hamnet – Malgosia Turzanska (c-4/17, n-5/19) — Borderline —
Testament of Ann Lee – Malgorzata Karpiuk (c-9/22, n-9/22) — Borderline —
Marty Supreme – Miyako Bellizzi (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Hedda – Lindsay Pugh (c-1/19) — Borderline —
The Fantastic Four: First Steps – Alexandra Byrne (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale – Anna Robbins (c-4/17) — Borderline —
The Phoenician Scheme – Milena Canonero (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Kiss of the Spider Woman – Colleen Atwood (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Train Dreams – Dakota Keller, Malgosia Turzanska (c-11/18) — Doubtful —

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Frankenstein (c-4/17, n-4/17, o-4/17) — Near Lock —
Sinners (c-4/17, n-7/20) — Good —
Wicked: For Good (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Borderline —
One Battle After Another (c-12/16, n-12/16) — Borderline —
The Ugly Stepsister (c-12/16, n-12/16) — Borderline —
Marty Supreme (c-12/16) — Borderline —
Nuremberg (c-12/16) — Borderline —
The Smashing Machine (c-12/16) — Borderline —
Kokuho (c-12/16) — Borderline —
The Alto Knights (c-12/16) — Borderline —

All of the Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Makeup & Hairstyling branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Sound

Frankenstein (c-4/17, n-4/17, o-4/17) — Good —
F1 (c-4/17, n-6/17) — Near Lock —
Sinners (c-12/16, n-1/11) — Good —
One Battle After Another (c-12/14, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Sirât (c-12/14, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Avatar: Fire and Ash (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Superman (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Wicked: For Good (c-4/17) — Borderline —

All of the Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Sound branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash (c-4/17, n-4/17, o-12/14) — Lock —
Frankenstein (c-4/17, n-4/17) — Borderline —
F1 (c-12/16, n-1/13) — Borderline —
The Lost Bus (c-12/16, n-1/13) — Borderline —
Sinners (c-12/16, n-1/20) — Borderline —
Superman (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Tron: Ares (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Jurassic World Rebirth (c-4/17) — Borderline —
Wicked: For Good (c-4/17) — Borderline —
The Electric State (c-12/16) — Doubtful —

All of the Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Visual Effects branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best International Feature Film

Sentimental Value – Norway (c-11/21, n-12/16, o-12/16) — Good —
The Secret Agent – Brazil (c-11/21, n-12/16) — Good —
It Was Just an Accident – France (c-11/21, n-12/16) — Good —
No Other Choice – South Korea (c-11/21, n-12/16) — Borderline —
Sirât – Spain (c-11/21, n-12/16) — Borderline —
The Voice of Hind Rajab – Tunisia (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Belén – Argentina (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Left-Handed Girl – Taiwan (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Sound of Falling – Germany (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Palestine 36 – Palestine (c-11/21) — Borderline —
The President’s Cake – Iraq (c-11/21) — Borderline —
All That’s Left of You – Jordan (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Kokuho – Japan (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Homebound – India (c-11/21) — Borderline —
Late Shift – Switzerland (c-11/21) — Borderline —

All of the Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Visual Effects branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders. The films below were eligible but not shorlisted.

100 Liters of Gold – Finland (c-11/21)
2000 Meters to Andriivka – Ukraine (c-11/21)
Alí Primera – Venezuela (c-11/21)
The Altar Boy, the Priest and the Gardener – Costa Rica (c-11/21)
Anjila – Nepal (c-11/21)
Arcadia – Greece (c-11/21)
Banzo – Portugal (c-11/21)
Beloved Tropic – Panama (c-11/21)
Black Red Yellow – Kyrgyzstan (c-11/21)
Blum: Masters of Their Own Destiny – Bosnia and Herzegovina (c-11/21)
Breathing Underwater – Luxembourg (c-11/21)
Calle Malaga – Morocco (c-11/21)
Cause of Death: Unknown – Iran (c-11/21)
Chuzalongo – Ecuador (c-11/21)
Dead to Rights – China (c-11/21)
Disco Afrika: A Malagasy Story – Madagascar (c-11/21)
Dog of God – Latvia (c-11/21)
Don’t You Let Me Go – Uruguay (c-11/21)
Eagles of the Republic – Sweden (c-11/21)
Familia – Italy (c-11/21)
Father – Slovakia (c-11/21)
Fiume o Morte! – Croatia (c-11/21)
Franz – Poland (c-11/21)
Happy Birthday – Egypt (c-11/21)
The Heart Is a Muscle – South Africa (c-11/21)
Hijra – Saudi Arabia (c-11/21)
A House Named Shahana – Bangladesh (c-11/21)
I, the Song – Bhutan (c-11/21)
I’m Not Everything I Want to Be – Czech Republic (c-11/21)
Kidnapping Inc. – Haiti (c-11/21)
Kimote – Uganda (c-11/21)
Kinra – Peru (c-11/21)
The Last Dance – Hong Kong (c-11/21)
Little Trouble Girls – Slovenia (c-11/21)
The Love That Remains – Iceland (c-11/21)
Luna Park – Albania (c-11/21)
Magellan – Philippines (c-11/21)
Mr. Nobody against Putin – Denmark (c-11/21)
My Armenian Phantoms – Armenia (c-11/21)
My Father’s Shadow – United Kingdom (c-11/21)
The Mysterious Gaze of the Flamingo – Chile (c-11/21)
One of Those Days When Hemme Dies – Turkey (c-11/21)
Orphan – Hungary (c-11/21)
Panopticon – Georgia (c-11/21)
Pavane for an Infant – Malaysia (c-11/21)
Peacock – Austria (c-11/21)
Pepe – Dominican Republic (c-11/21)
A Poet – Colombia (c-11/21)
Red Rain – Vietnam (c-11/21)
Reedland – Netherlands (c-11/21)
Rolling Papers – Estonia (c-11/21)
A Sad and Beautiful World – Lebanon (c-11/21)
Sanatorium – Ireland (c-11/21)
The Sea – Israel (c-11/21)
Silent City Driver – Mongolia (c-11/21)
Sore: A Wife from the Future – Indonesia (c-11/21)
The Southern Chronicles – Lithuania (c-11/21)
The Southern House – Bolivia (c-11/21)
Stranger Eyes – Singapore (c-11/21)
Sun Never Again – Serbia (c-11/21)
Taghiyev: Oil – Azerbaijan (c-11/21)
The Tale of Silyan – North Macedonia (c-11/21)
Tarika – Bulgaria (c-11/21)
The Things You Kill – Canada (c-11/21)
The Tower of Strength – Montenegro (c-11/21)
Traffic – Romania (c-11/21)
Under the Flags, the Sun – Paraguay (c-11/21)
Walls – Akinni Inuk – Greenland (c-11/21)
We Shall Not Be Moved – Mexico (c-11/21)
The Wolves Always Come at Night – Australia (c-11/21)
Young Mothers – Belgium (c-11/21)

Best Documentary Feature

The Perfect Neighbor (c-11/21, n-12/16, o-12/16)
2000 Meters to Andriivka (c-11/21, n-1/11)
Come See Me in the Good Light (c-11/21, n-12/16)
Cover-Up (c-11/21, n-12/16)
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (c-11/21, n-12/16)
The Alabama Solution (c-11/21)
Apocalypse in the Tropics (c-11/21)
Coexistence, My Ass! (c-11/21)
Cutting through Rocks (c-11/21)
Folktales (c-11/21)
Holding Liat (c-11/21)
Mistress Dispeller (c-11/21)
Mr. Nobody against Putin (c-11/21)
Seeds (c-11/21)
Yanuni (c-11/21)

All of the Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy’s Documentary branch and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders. The films below were eligible but not shorlisted.

14 Short Films about Opera (c-11/21)
1985: Heroes among Ruins – The Triumph of the People (c-11/21)
67 Bombs to Enid (c-11/21)
76 Days Adrift (c-11/21)
Abby’s List, A Dogumentary (c-11/21)
Ada – My Mother the Architect (c-11/21)
Afternoons of Solitude (c-11/21)
The Age of Disclosure (c-11/21)
Ai Weiwei’s Turandot (c-11/21)
All God’s Children (c-11/21)
The Altar Boy, the Priest and the Gardener (c-11/21)
Always (c-11/21)
Amakki (c-11/21)
American Sons (c-11/21)
Among Neighbors (c-11/21)
animal. (c-11/21)
Antidote (c-11/21)
Architecton (c-11/21)
Are We Good? (c-11/21)
Art for Everybody (c-11/21)
Art Spiegelman: Disaster Is My Muse (c-11/21)
The Art Whisperer (c-11/21)
Artfully United (c-11/21)
Assembly (c-11/21)
Becoming Led Zeppelin (c-11/21)
Being Eddie (c-11/21)
Below the Clouds (c-11/21)
Benita (c-11/21)
Between the Mountain and the Sky (c-11/21)
Beyond the Gaze: Jule Campbell’s Swimsuit Issue (c-11/21)
Billy Idol Should Be Dead (c-11/21)
BLKNWS: Terms & Conditions (c-11/21)
Blum: Masters of Their Own Destiny (c-11/21)
Bodyguard of Lies (c-11/21)
Brothers after War (c-11/21)
BTS ARMY: Forever We Are Young (c-11/21)
Can’t Look Away: The Case against Social Media (c-11/21)
El Canto de las Manos (c-11/21)
Caterpillar (c-11/21)
Champions of the Golden Valley (c-11/21)
Checkpoint Zoo (c-11/21)
Cheech & Chong’s Last Movie (c-11/21)
Child of Dust (c-11/21)
Chronicles of Disney (c-11/21)
Complicated (c-11/21)
Cracking the Code: Phil Sharp and the Biotech Revolution (c-11/21)
Dalit Subbaiah (c-11/21)
The Dating Game (c-11/21)
Deaf President Now! (c-11/21)
Democracy Noir (c-11/21)
Diane Warren: Relentless (c-11/21)
Dog Warriors (c-11/21)
Drop Dead City (c-11/21)
The Duel We Missed (c-11/21)
Elie Wiesel: Soul on Fire (c-11/21)
The Encampments (c-11/21)
Endless Cookie (c-11/21)
Europe’s New Faces (c-11/21)
Facing War (c-11/21)
Fatherless No More (c-11/21)
Fiume o Morte! (c-11/21)
Food Delivery: Fresh from the West Philippine Sea (c-11/21)
For the Living (c-11/21)
From Island to Island (c-11/21)
Ghost Boy (c-11/21)
Girl Climber (c-11/21)
Go to the People (c-11/21)
Goodbye Horses: The Many Lives of Q Lazzarus (c-11/21)
Grand Theft Hamlet (c-11/21)
Heaven. Poste Restente (c-11/21)
Heightened Scrutiny (c-11/21)
I Know Catherine, the Log Lady (c-11/21)
I Was Born This Way (c-11/21)
I, Poppy (c-11/21)
If You Tell Anyone (c-11/21)
I’m Not Everything I Want to Be (c-11/21)
I’m Only Blind (c-11/21)
Imago (c-11/21)
In Limbo (c-11/21)
In Waves and War (c-11/21)
In Whose Name? (c-11/21)
Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989 (c-11/21)
It’s Never Over, Jeff Buckley (c-11/21)
Janis Ian: Breaking Silence (c-11/21)
The King of Color (c-11/21)
The Last Class (c-11/21)
The Last Holocaust Secret (c-11/21)
The Last Philadelphia (c-11/21)
The Last Twins (c-11/21)
Li Cham (I Died) (c-11/21)
The Librarians (c-11/21)
Life After (c-11/21)
Lilith Fair: Building a Mystery – The Untold Story (c-11/21)
Liza: A Truly Terrific Absolutely True Story (c-11/21)
Love+War (c-11/21)
Mahamantra – The Great Chant (c-11/21)
The Man Who Saves the World? (c-11/21)
A Man with Sole: The Impact of Kenneth Cole (c-11/21)
Marlee Matlin: Not Alone Anymore (c-11/21)
Meanwhile (c-11/21)
Men of War (c-11/21)
Mighty Indeed (c-11/21)
Monk in Pieces (c-11/21)
My Armenian Phantoms (c-11/21)
My Mom Jayne: A Film by Mariska Hargitay (c-11/21)
Natchez (c-11/21)
The New Yorker at 100 (c-11/21)
Night in West Texas (c-11/21)
Norita (c-11/21)
Of Mud and Blood (c-11/21)
One to One: John and Yoko (c-11/21)
Orwell 2+2=5 (c-11/21)
Our Time Will Come (c-11/21)
Out of Plain Sight (c-11/21)
Paint Me a Road Out of Here (c-11/21)
Paparazzi (c-11/21)
The Parish of Bishop John (c-11/21)
Pavements (c-11/21)
The Pool (c-11/21)
Predators (c-11/21)
Prime Minister (c-11/21)
The Prince of Nanawa (c-11/21)
Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (c-11/21)
Rebel with a Clause (c-11/21)
Remaining Native (c-11/21)
Riefenstahl (c-11/21)
Rise Up! 14 Short Films about Alliance for Positive Change (c-11/21)
River of Grass (c-11/21)
The Road between Us: The Ultimate Rescue (c-11/21)
The Rose: Come Back to Me (c-11/21)
Row of Life (c-11/21)
Sanatorium (c-11/21)
A Savage Art (c-11/21)
Schindler Space Architect (c-11/21)
Secret Mall Apartment (c-11/21)
Selena y Los Dinos (c-11/21)
Sensory Overload (c-11/21)
Shari & Lamb Chop (c-11/21)
The Shepherd and the Bear (c-11/21)
Shoot the People (c-11/21)
Shuffle (c-11/21)
The Six Billion Dollar Man (c-11/21)
Slumlord Millionaire (c-11/21)
Songs from the Hole (c-11/21)
Soul of a Nation (c-11/21)
Speak. (c-11/21)
Stans (c-11/21)
Steve Schapiro: Being Everywhere (c-11/21)
Stiller & Meara: Nothing Is Lost (c-11/21)
Stop the Insanity: Finding Susan Powter (c-11/21)
Story of My Village (c-11/21)
Strange Journey: The Story of Rocky Horror (c-11/21)
The Stringer (c-11/21)
Suburban Fury (c-11/21)
Sudan, Remember Us (c-11/21)
Supercar Saints (c-11/21)
Swamp Dogg Gets His Pool Painted (c-11/21)
The Tale of Silyan (c-11/21)
Thank You Very Much (c-11/21)
There Was, There Was Not (c-11/21)
Third Act (c-11/21)
This Ordinary Thing (c-11/21)
Through the Fire (The Eaton Fire: The Aftermath) (c-11/21)
Torn: The Israel -Palestine Poster War on New York City Streets (c-11/21)
Trade Secret (c-11/21)
Trains (c-11/21)
Twin Towers: Legacy (c-11/21)
Unbanked (c-11/21)
UnBroken (c-11/21)
Under the Flags, the Sun (c-11/21)
Unseen Innocence (c-11/21)
Viktor (c-11/21)
Viva Verdi! (c-11/21)
Walk with Me (c-11/21)
Walls – Akinni Inuk (c-11/21)
We Were Here – The Untold History of Black Africans in Renaissance Europe (c-11/21)
Welded Together (c-11/21)
The White House Effect (c-11/21)
Who in the Hell Is Regina Jones? (c-11/21)
Wisdom of Happiness (c-11/21)
The Wolves Always Come at Night (c-11/21)
Worth the Fight (c-11/21)
Writing Hawa (c-11/21)
WTO/99 (c-11/21)
Yalla Parkour (c-11/21)
Zodiac Killer Project (c-11/21)

Best Documentary Short Subject

All the Empty Rooms (c-12/16, n-12/16, o-12/16)
Cashing Out (c-12/16, n-12/16)
Children No More: Were and Are Gone (c-12/16, n-12/16)
The Devil Is Busy (c-12/16, n-12/16)
Rovina’s Choice (c-12/16, n-12/16)
All the Walls Came Down (c-12/16)
Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud (c-12/16)
Bad Hostage (c-12/16)
Chasing Time (c-12/16)
Classroom 4 (c-12/16)
Heartbeat (c-12/16)
Last Days on Lake Trinity (c-12/16)
On Healing Land, Birds Perch (c-12/16)
Perfectly a Strangeness (c-12/16)
We Were the Scenery (c-12/16)

All of the Short Subjects listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Animated Short Film

The Quinta’s Ghost (c-12/16, n-12/16, o-12/16)
Butterfly (c-12/16, n-12/16)
Éiru (c-12/16, n-12/16)
The Girl Who Cried Pearls (c-12/16, n-12/16)
I Died in Irpin (c-12/16, n-12/16)
Autokar (c-12/16)
Cardboard (c-12/16)
Forevergreen (c-12/16)
Hurikán (c-12/16)
The Night Boots (c-12/16)
Playing God (c-12/16)
Retirement Plan (c-12/16)
The Shyness of Trees (c-12/16)
Snow Bear (c-12/16)
The Three Sisters (c-12/16)

All of the Short Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

Best Live Action Short Film

Jane Austen’s Period Drama (c-12/16, n-12/16, o-12/16)
Ado (c-12/16, n-12/16)
The Pearl Comb (c-12/16, n-12/16)
Rock, Paper, Scissors (c-12/16, n-12/16)
Two People Exchanging Saliva (c-12/16, n-12/16)
Amarela (c-12/16)
Beyond Silence (c-12/16)
The Boy with White Skin (c-12/16)
Butcher’s Stain (c-12/16)
Butterfly on a Wheel (c-12/16)
Dad’s Not Home (c-12/16)
Extremist (c-12/16)
A Friend of Dorothy (c-12/16)
Pantyhose (c-12/16)
The Singers (c-12/16)

All of the Short Films listed here are Official Selections of the Academy and the final five nominees will come only from these selected contenders.

NEW: April 17, 2025

And the fight for the 98th Oscars starts now. I put a lot of films on these lists, perhaps more so than I have in the past. I felt it important to list everything that could possibly be a contender and some things that have already done well critically that could end up pushing through. Most of these films won’t make it to the end. Some of them won’t even get released this year but at this point, this is how I see things.

Updated: May 19, 2025

We’re still fairly early in the season to make too many accurate predictions. For the most part, I pruned out some of the titles that don’t seem to have built much of a following (On Swift Horses, Bob Trevino Likes It, and My Dead Friend Zoe). Then I added one new title, Nouvelle Vague, which premiered at Cannes. It’s still too early to tell what will emerge victorious there or if it will have an effect on the Oscar race like Anora did. For now, this is what things look like with very few changes (such as Sinners moving into contention in a few places and Hamnet feeling more like a contender than I originally thought).

Updated: June 17, 2025

With The Life of Chuck earning solid reviews (in spite of being held back), I’ve finally added it to my list though I remain unimpressed with its chances as yet. I did, however, give A Big Bold Beautiful Journey more attention this time. After that trailer, I was surprised how enjoyable it looks. Although I think it looks good, Kiss of the Spider Woman did have a festival debut that didn’t garner attention, so I’ve mostly removed it from several predictions. Otherwise, most of the stuff I have predicted is unchanged.

Updated: July 17, 2025

Not a lot has changed in the last month. Other than a few upkeep items, I didn’t make very many changes. A lot of contenders haven’t released yet so I don’t know how they will play with audiences or critics.

Updated: August 20, 2025

I’m in a kind of holding pattern waiting for the Telluride/Toronto/Venice releases before making too many changes. I removed everything for Good Fortune and most of the remaining references to The Phoenician Scheme. I also added hopefuls like Julie Kavner (Ella McKay) and Amy Madigan (Weapons), though I cannot say for certain either will be nominated at this point.

Updated: September 23, 2025

While not as sizable as it will be after the first few weeks of precursors, I’ve made numerous changes, especially to nominees. I also removed several “contenders” who are most definitely not contending anymore. I add a few new ones but not many. The festivals didn’t solidify too much.

Updated: October 19, 2025

It now appears like we have a solidifying slate of contenders. Madden and Star Trek 4 appear to be no-shows this year, so I’ve removed them all. I’ve also eliminated several critical duds like After the Hunt and Caught Stealing. I’ve shifted some of the nominees and winners with momentum shifting towards One Battle After Another and Hamnet.

Updated: November 18, 2025

Several more films have been dumped from my list, especially those titles which didn’t fare well in limited or wide release or which never built the buzz beyond initial “perhaps” commentary. Train Dreams gets added to my list in several places thanks to its surprising resurgence in recent weeks. It debuted at Sundance but didn’t gain any traction. The few reviews I’ve seen of it recently suggest it could be a strong contender. I don’t know yet if it gets nominated but enough prominent features have failed in recent months that it is edging towards more than just a passing fancy. Things are still in flux but are starting to solidify in certain quarters.

Updated: December 16, 2025

With many of the major critics groups announcing winners and/or nominees, things are speeding along. The guilds are going to start churning out as well, so next month’s update might well be the finale. And with the shortlists, I have predictions in several categories that I had left alone before the lists were available.