(Updated: 3/5/10, 12:44p – Added Wes’ info) It’s become one of the most watched races of the year and could very easily go down to the wire. Below are our predictions for the Bullock/Streep face off, plus five facts and our favorites.

Trivia: Five Facts

• The category was one of the first introduced in 1927/28.
• Only two winners in this category did so for a performance in a foreign language film. Sophia Loren was the first in 1961 for Two Women. Marion Cotillard was the second in 2007 for La Vie en Rose.
• 82 Oscars have gone out in this category.
• Katharine Hepburn and Barbra Streisand share the distinction of being the only individuals to tie for a win in this category in Oscar history in 1968 for The Lion in Winter and Funny Girl respectively.
• Meryl Streep, this year, surpassed Katharine Hepburn’s 12 Lead Actress nomination with her 13th mention in the top category. Behind Hepburn in third place for most nominations is Bette Davis with 10 followed by Greer Garson with 7. And while many actresses have won this award twice, but only one actress has won more: Katharine Hepburn with 4.

Predictions

• Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side (Wesley, Tripp, Wes) (Peter)
• Helen Mirren – The Last Station
• Carey Mulligan – An Education
• Gabourey Sidibe – Precious
• Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia (Peter) (Wesley, Tripp, Wes)

KEY: (Winner Prediction) (Alternate Winner)

The Commentary

Wesley Lovell – While its conceivable that voters could go a completely different route than the two divas duking it out for Best Actress, none of them really feel like surprise, out-of-nowhere victors. Streep has a record number of nominations and swept up most of the critics precursors. People have clamored for her to win a third Oscar for some time, but this is one of her most lightweight performances ever and many voters may be waiting for a Sophie’s Choice kind of moment to give her a trophy, or at least wait for something a bit more dramatic. On the other hand, we have Sandra Bullock who has been a box office starlet for some time, but proved how she could carry a dramatic-weighted film with The Blind Side. And if that wasn’t enough, she’s incredibly well liked in the industry as a person, which could shift the award in her direction. Of course, Streep could win her third award and thus quiet all din for her to win another Oscar, but it’s a tight race and with a win at SAG, Bullock looks more likely to reap the benefits.

Peter J. Patrick – This is one of the most interesting races ever in this category, not because the performances are particularly award worthy, but because the actresses are two of the most beloved performers now working.

Streep has been chasing that third Oscar for so long it’s practically a given that she will get it some day, but every year we seem to be asking is this the one? Her delightful portrayal of Julia Child in Julie & Julia may not be her best work, but rarely do actors and actresses win for their best work. Like Jeff Bridges, the presumed front-runner in the Best Actor race, Streep, having won her last Oscar 27 years ago, is considered due.

Bullock, on the other hand, has had a successful career playing in light comedies and occasional dramas without coming remotely close to an Oscar. The Blind Side, in which she plays a nice white lady who provides a home for an aspiring black football player, was an unexpected box office phenomenon. That it plays like a TV movie is beside the point. People, including her fellow actors, genuinely like “Sandy”, but do they like her enough to give her an Oscar over Streep? We’ll know in a few days.

Tripp Burton – Of all the awards this year, this is the hardest to predict. In a tight race, Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep are running neck and neck and I have no idea how this is going to play out. For a long time this seemed like it was finally going to be Meryl Streep’s year for her third Oscar. Sandra Bullock has been gaining traction, though, and has surpassed her momentum. The media is behind her, she comes across as an overwhelmed movie star, she is likeable, her film was a suprise smash (and a surprise Best Picture nominee) and do people really want Meryl Streep’s Oscars to be for Kramer vs. Kramer, Sophie’s Choice and Julie and Julia? Which one of those is not like the other.

Our Favorite Winners

KEY:
Appears on Two Lists
Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Four Lists
Appears on Opposing Lists

Wesley Lovell

1. Janet Gaynor – Sunrise (Although she won for three films at the first Academy Awards, this remains one of my favorite performances, nominated or not. In the silent era, so many actors relied on over-emphasizing emotion and grand gestures to get across complex emotions. Gaynor not only conveyed everything she needed to in this film, she did so without going over the top.)
2. Diane Keaton – Annie Hall (A great comic performance and one of many that just make sense. It’s as iconic a portrayal as any.)
3. Kathy Bates – Misery (This could have been a devolved cliche of every stark raving loony to be filmed without depth or interest. Bates manages to create a sympathetic if crazy, villainous character.)
4. Ingrid Bergman – Gaslight (Bergman was near the top of her game when she took on the role of a woman slowly being driven mad.)
5. Jessica Tandy – Driving Miss Daisy (Tandy showed us exactly how a matronly character should be played. She was strong, convicted and vulnerable and made it all seem like there was very little effort put in.)

Peter J. Patrick

1. Olivia de Havilland – To Each His Own (de Havillnd was only thirty when she flawlessly essayed the role of a gruff middle-aged businesswoman looking back on her life and looking forward to connecting with the son she gave up years earlier.)
2. Vivien Leigh – A Streetcar Named Desire (Leigh proved lightning can strike twice when she gave her second great iconic performance in a Hollywood which she filtered through a Southern accent.)
3. Katharine Hepburn – The Lion in Winter (Hepburn’s Eleanor of Aquitaine was by far the best of the four performances for which she won Oscars after 35 years of losing to actresses who often gave inferior performances.)
4. Maggie Smith – The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie (magnificent Maggie is wondrous as the self-deluded Scottish schoolteacher, one of her many marvelous screen performances.)
5. Liza Minnelli – Cabaret (Liza’s career peaked at 26 with her brilliant work here. If you’re going to spend the rest of your life singing the same songs, you could do worse than Kander and Ebb.)

Tripp Burton

1. Diane Keaton – Annie Hall (A perfectly pitched comedic performance in a perfectly pitched comedy)
2. Claudette Colbert – It Happened One Night (The Oscar’s too often disregard comedic performances, but when they win they are rarely as wonderful as this)
3. Sissy Spacek – Coal Miner’s Daughter (Sissy Spacek won an overdue Oscar for perhaps her greatest performance, where she not only sings and ages but does it with more ease and depth than most actresses can muster up)
4. Janet Gaynor – Sunrise (There is little to be said here except that she is perfect)
5. Vivien Leigh – A Streetcar Named Desire (in roles they had already been playing for over a year) and does it with a grace and naturalism few actresses can bring to the role)

Wes Huizar

1. Vivien Leigh – Gone With the Wind
2. Audrey Hepburn – Roman Holiday
3. Diane Keaton – Annie Hall
4. Liza Minnelli – Cabaret
5. Claudette Colbert – It Happened One Night

Our Least Favorite Winners

KEY:
Appears on Two Lists
Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Four Lists
Appears on Opposing Lists

Wesley Lovell

1. Helen Hunt – As Good As It Gets (This performance would have worked perfectly on the big screen if it hadn’t been a direct carbon copy of Hunt’s character on Mad About You. There’s nothing original nor inventive in this turn and that she managed to beat out the far superior Judi Dench in Mrs. Brown is almost criminal. That she also managed to win over Helena Bonham Carter, Julie Christie and Kate Winslet in far superior performances is murder.)
2. Gwyneth Paltrow – Shakespeare in Love (Fluffy, young Paltrow won for a light-weight performance pulled along in its Best Picture winning ride by Harvey Weinstein. There was no way she was better than Fernanda Montenegro, Emily Watson or the should-have-won Cate Blanchett for Elizabeth.)
3. Luise Rainer – The Great Ziegfeld (She seems like barely a character in the film and with all the extravagance around her, she blends into the background, which might work had it been anything truly memorable.)
4. Julia Roberts – Erin Brockovich (I don’t fault Roberts for giving a bad performance, just when compared to the many other performances I’ve seen from this category, she can’t hold a candle to them. And what gives her the push into my lower list further is that she unfairly beat out Ellen Burstyn for her mesmerizing work in Requiem for a Dream.)
5. Nicole Kidman – The Hours (She may have played down her looks significantly, but the performance is fairly plain and leaves very little impression. Her fake nose is more noteworthy even with its digital touch-up.)

Peter J. Patrick

1. Mary Pickford – Coquette (dreadful amateurish performance by “America’s Sweetheart” who only had to let the Academy’s board of governors know she wanted one to win an Oscar.)
2. Elizabeth Taylor – BUtterfield 8 (as everyone knows, la Liz won because they thought she was dying. The film, as she herself called it, is “a crock of shit”, and her performance is no better.)
3. Glenda Jackson – A Touch of Class (Jackson’s charm could only go so far in convincing anyone this tepid trash was worthy of her talents, much less an Oscar.)
4. Ginger Rogers – Kitty Foyle (Rogers’ forte was singing, dancing and light comedy. That she proved she could also do drama was nice, but not in the least bit Oscar worthy.)
5. Katharine Hepburn – Morning Glory (Hepburn herself once said that the right actors win Oscars for the wrong movies. She could well have been talking about her win here for her wistful aspiring actress over her own superior work that year as Jo in the definitive screen version of Little Women. )

Tripp Burton

1. Helen Hunt – As Good As It Gets (There is nothing good to say about this performance: vapid, shrieking and utterly miscast)
2. Elizabeth Taylor – BUtterfield 8 (The stories of why she won are numerous, but they can’t mask the fact that it is a bad performance in a horrid film)
3. Halle Berry – Monster’s Ball (One of the worst examples of an actress making herself ugly and winning and Oscar, in this case for a film just as ugly as her)
4. Marion Cotillard – La Vie en Rose (Her big scenes are fine, but there is no through-line to her performance and it comes off as shallow)
5. Nicole Kidman – The Hours (A fake nose won her an Oscar, especially sad when you figure it is the worst performance she gave in a four year period of great work)

Wes Huizar

1. Nicole Kidman – The Hours
2. Helen Hunt – As Good As It Gets
3. Halle Berry – Monster’s Ball
4. Kate Winslet – The Reader
5. Julia Roberts – Erin Brockovich