We begin our daily Oscar predictions coverage with the Best Supporting Actress category. Each day between now and the Friday before the Academy Awards, we here at CinemaSight will be presenting a category-by-category analysis of the races including trivia about the category, our predictions and alternates, and a glimpse out our favorite and least favorite winners in each category.

Trivia: Five Facts

• Given as an honorary award from 1947 to 1955 (nothing given in 1953), the Foreign Language Film category became a full-fledged competitive award in 1957.
• 54 Oscars have been given out in this category in 53 outings. The first year the award was given competitively, producers Dino De Laurentiis and Carlo Ponti were given trophies for La Strada. Since then, only the country of origin is recognized with the award.
• Only one film has ever been disqualified from competition in this category. In 1992, Uruguay’s entry, A Place in the World, was diqualified when it was discovered that the film was produced in Argentina instead and Uruguay did not have sufficient artistic control. No film replaced it on the ballot, leaving only four nominees that year.
• France holds the record for most nominations by a country in this category with 36 mentions. Italy is next in line with 27, followed by Spain with 19, Sweden with 14, Japan with 12, and Germany and Israel with 10 each (France, Germany and Isreal are all nominees this year). The top award recipients are Italy with 10, France with 9, Spain with 4 and The Netherlands, Austria, Sweden and the U.S.S.R. with 3 each. Of the top nominees, Japan won its first Oscar in 2008 for Departures, but Isreal has never won.
• Eight pictures filmed in a foreign language have been nominated for Best Picture. Only four of those were also nominated for Best Foreign Language Film (Z in 1969, The Emigrants in Foreign Film in 1971 {with its Best Picture nomination in 1972}, Life Is Beautiful in 1998, and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon in 2000). The ones that weren’t are Grand Illusion in 1938 {the category did not yet exist}, Cries and Whispers in 1973, The Postman in 1995, and Letters from Iwo Jima in 2006). Crouching Tiger holds the record for most nominations by a Foreign Language Film at the Academy Awards with 10 mentions.

Predictions

• Ajami – Israel (Wesley, Wes)
• The Milk of Sorrow – Peru
• A Prophet – France (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
• El Secreto de Sus Ojos – Argentina (Tripp)
• The White Ribbon – Germany (Peter) (Wes)

KEY: (Winner Prediction) (Alternate Winner)

The Commentary

Wesley Lovell – I am really torn between three contenders here. Ajami is politically charged and about discrimination, so it could have an upper hand in this contest. I’ve heard El Secreto de Sus Ojos was a bit of a crowd pleaser with the foreign film committee. A Prophet’s strong showing with the BAFTA’s and other recent awards suggest that it’s a stronger contender than many had thought after it failed to pick up more steam after the NBR mention (the only reason it didn’t appear as Best Picture more often was that it wasn’t eligible for most awards, not releasing domestically until 2010). I throw out The White Ribbon because it’s apparently a very cerebral film that may not easily appeal to Academy voters. I put Ajami first and A Prophet second, but El Secreto de Sus Ojos is a strong third and could easily upset them all.
Peter J. Patrick – Unfortunately I’ve yet to see any of the nominees, so this is basically guesswork, but The White Ribbon’s numerous precursor wins suggests it’s the one to beat.
Tripp Burton – The focus here seems to be on the two big name foreign films, France’s Un Prophete and Germany’s The White Ribbon. They were the two big winners at Cannes this year, and between the two Un Prophete would be the more accessible of the two. It has the better shot at winning. However, this is not a voting bloc that focuses on big names and critical reception. El Secreto de Sus Ojos is by a filmmaker who has cut his teeth on Law and Order, and seems to be an accessible alternative to the darker “front runners”.
Wes Huizar – This category has seen a lot of surprises recently. For example, who could have predicted “Departures” over “Waltz with Bashir”? Or “The Lives of Others” over “Pan’s Labyrinth”? Or “No Man’s Land” over “Amelie”? I wouldn’t be shocked to see “Ajami,” the well-reviewed picture from Israel triumphing over the heavy favorite “The White Ribbon,” especially considering that this is Israel’s third consecutive nomination.

Our Favorite Winners

KEY:
Appears on Two Lists
Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Four Lists
Appears on Opposing Lists

Wesley Lovell

1. Federico Fellini’s 8 ½ – Italy
2. Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon – Taiwan
3. The Barbarian Invasions – Canada
4. Closely Watched Trains – Czechoslovakia
5. Indochine – France

I have not seen a lot of the winners in this category, but these are the five films I like the most of the ones I’ve seen.

Peter J. Patrick

1. Sundays and Cybèle – France (the first foreign language winner I saw on the big screen, a still haunting film about a shell-shocked soldier and his misinterpreted relationship with a lonely schoolgirl.)
2. Closely Watched Trains – Czechoslovakia (another quietly affective film I first saw on the big screen.)
3. The Garden of the Finzi-Continis – Italy (exquisitely lovely late career film by Italian neorealist genius Vittorio de Sica.)
4. Day for Night – France (marvelously knowing comedy-drama about the film business.)
5. Cinema Paradiso – Italy (terrific recounting of a childhood spent in the local movie theatre.)

Tripp Burton

1. The Tin Drum – The Federal Republic of Germany (Volker Schlondorff’s dark meditation of Gunther Grass’ novel may not be the best film to win this award, but it is a shocking choice and I still don’t understand how it won this award (which was completely deserved))
2. Mon Oncle – France (This isn’t my favorite of Jacques Tati’s film, but it is the kind of film the Academy usually ignores (physical comedy) and shouldn’t.)
3. The Shop on Main Street – Czechoslovakia (A rough film to sit through, but also a completely engaging, emotional experience.)
4. Day for Night – France (Most of the great foreign filmmakers of the past 50 years won this award for their lesser works, but Truffaut won it for one of his best films.)
5. No Man’s Land – Bosnia & Herzegovina (There may be other films that are much better than this (8 1/2, Virgin Spring, Discreet Charm of the Bourgeoisie), but I love this little black comedy, and love that it came out of nowhere to take the award.)

note, I didn’t count the honorary winners, or else The Bicycle Thief and Rashomon are an obvious one-two punch

Wes Huizar

1. The Bicycle Thief – Italy
2. Rashomon – Japan
3. Federico Fellini’s 8 ½ – Italy
4. Mon Oncle – France
5. The Nights of Cabiria – Italy

Our Least Favorite Winners

KEY:
Appears on Two Lists
Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Four Lists
Appears on Opposing Lists

Wesley Lovell

1. Life Is Beautiful – Italy
2. No Man’s Land – Bosnia & Herzegovina

I have not seen enough winners to justify more than a smattering of choices here. And while I don’t dislike No Man’s Land, I thought Amélie was the far better picture of that year.

Peter J. Patrick

1. The Barbarian Invasions – Canada (talk, talk, talk.)
2. Indochine – France (long and boring.)
3. Get Out Your Handkerchiefs – France (much ado about nothing.)

Tripp Burton

I haven’t seen enough of these to assemble a bottom 5 list. Most of the weak winners disappear from consciousness quickly, and aren’t near the top of my to watch list.