Year after year, the Golden Globe Awards, as given out by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, are a hit-or-miss event with roughly half the winners picking up prizes and a few of them even missing out on nominations. Yet, with 2 or 3 exceptions, every single winner of last night’s awards will either go on to be nominated or probably even win.

But, before I go into the details of the winners, let’s take a look at the show itself. The show moved briskly with only a couple of slow segments. They brought back the Oscar ceremony-excised Best Picture nominee presentations and they felt right (though some of the choices, Zac Efron?, were a bit strange). And, unlike the Critics’ Choice Awards and a few Globes telecasts back in the ’90s, they presented all of their awards live on air and managed to do so without rushing through all of the montages. Overall, and for the first time, the Oscars could take a page out of the Globe playbook.

Ricky Gervais was hysterically funny. matter of fact, so on-point was he that most of his barbs came off not only as mean-spirited, but biting, causing more than a few embarrassed segments of silence in the row. Still, his thoughts were astute, humorous and welcomed. No Oscar host would ever be that crass of condescending to the room, but Gervais made it work and for a presentation like the Globes, that’s all that matters (though, I fear he won’t be invited back again next year after his nasty comment about HFPA voters being bribed).

There were no memorable presenters last night (at least the Critics’ choice had a few really smart and humorous choices/intros) and the awards were fairly unremarkable, but that’s what happens when you try to avoid your reputation of picking out there choices and going for awards contenders and frontrunners.

Best Picture (Drama & Comedy/Musical)

Let’s start with the most obvious of winners. The HFPA has a tendency to vote for sweeping epics or films with international flavor. But the rest of the time, they like to hop on bandwagons and here they are picking The Social Network for Drama. And an equally unsurprising selection of The Kids Are All Right for Comedy/Musical. Not only are both high likely to be nominated, but Social Network has been cemented the odds-on favorite to win.

Best Animated Feature

A choice of anything other than Toy Story 3 might have been met with derision by some, but its Oscar victory and Best Picture nomination are all but assured.

Best Director

Once again, The Social Network came away with the prize and considering David Fincher’s reputation in the Hollywood community, an Oscar win would not be shocking.

Best Actor (Drama & Comedy/Musical)

Of the two (unlikely three) Globe winners not to pick up Oscar steam, one received a Best Actor prize. Of course I’m not talking about Colin Firth who is not only going to get nominated, but is also very likely to win. The winner of the Comedy/Musical category was Paul Giamatti who has had plenty of trouble with Oscar nominations in the past, but his film and performance just isn’t likely to crack the final five.

Best Actress (Drama & Comedy/Musical)

Of the three Comedy/Musical and Drama-split races, this is the one that is most likely to turn into an Oscar showdown. Natalie Portman has the edge over Annette Bening for this year’s Best Actress Oscar and the Globes didn’t shy away from setting that competition in stone.

Best Supporting Actor

Another heavy steamroller is this prize for Supporting Actor which went to Christian Bale. He’s got a lot of respect in the industry for his terrific performances, so for him to win would not be at all surprising and since his chief competition, Geoffrey Rush, already has an Oscar, the love will be spread. Though, caution is urged in the Russell Crowe syndrome. His bad reputation sank his win for The Insider when many thought he would get the prize. Consolation can be had for Bale if he doesn’t win the Oscar…Crowe picked an undeserved one up later for Gladiator.

Best Supporting Actress

Assured a nomination, Melissa Leo isn’t assured an Oscar. Although she certainly has a strong shot, I can see only Amy Adams or Hailee Steinfeld (if Oscar goes for category gerrymandering) taking the prize from her. Still, it’s the kind of fiery performance the Oscars love when they can’t honor young ingenues.

Best Screenplay

Another slam dunk Oscar winner matching the Globe winner is the screenplay for Social Network which will nab Aaron Sorkin an Oscar.

Best Original Score

The Social Network is that odd-duck winner that I am torn on whether or not it will be nominated. Unlike Comedy/Musical Actor and Foreign Film, I lean towards it being nominated, but a win isn’t assured at this point.

Best Original Song

Dianne Warren is a popular Oscar songwriter, even though she’s not always a popular winner. And when even the more populist Globes make this her first victory, you know she doesn’t have a lot of chances at winning. And considering I think “Bound to You” a better song, I don’t think this one will carry over to Oscar, but a nomination is certain.

Best Foreign Film

The second winner of the night that I think may come up empty-handed at the Oscars is In a Better World, Denmark’s submission for Best Foreign Language Film. I’m not even sure the film will receive an Oscar nomination and since the ballots were already due, there’s no way this victory will push it into consideration.

So, looking at the above, of the 14 Golden Globe winners, 11 are guaranteed Oscar nominations (a 12th carryover is also likely, but not guaranteed); and of those 11, 7 are also very likely to win with another 2 or 3 on the cusp. This could be the Globes’ best prediction year in many. Things can still change, but if there’s a better precursor than this this year, I’d be surprised.