With the first precursor awards just around the corner (Satellite Award and Annie Award nominations on Nov. 30), it’s about time to talk seriously about the Oscar race in terms of what each studio has on its plate that they could and possibly will push. For all the latest precursor dates (with a few unconfirmed marked with a “?”), check out the new calendar in the menu sidebar at the right.

There are the majors, their indie/prestige arms, independents and small independents. Since it’s difficult to really break down much difference between the specialty labels of the major studios and the true indies, I have combined all but the most minor of independent studios together.

And because this article is likely to be large, I’m going to break it into three. The first will highlight the majors, the second the indies and the third, the minors (this last one will be rather short comparatively).

The Majors

Let’s start things off by tossing out a few studios. MGM is struggling to find a buyer. It’s few films in release this year flopped and are generally not expected to get much of a push (Fame could end up with some Original Song nominations, but that’s it). United Artists stepped back after its disastrous Lions for Lambs failure two years ago and the lack of movement for Valkyrie last year. So, they have nothing to show for themselves this year. And Sony is a holding company for other labels and thus does not have specific content that seems to be in competition. Its Columbia, Tri-Star and Sony Pictures Classic arms have something to offer.

Columbia kicks things off with three films aimed at single categories or a swath of techs. Julie & Julia is their best chance at a top-line nomination, but only in one category: Best Actress. Meryl Streep is on many tongues as one of the guaranteed slotters for that category, though there are no guarantees in this game, though as the contenders for the year continue to fall by the wayside, her chances increase. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs is very likely to transition its huge box office success into a Best Animated Feature nomination. When the category was limited to three, it was a fairly strong contender, but with an increase to five, it’s an almost certainty. 2012 did better at the box office in November than many might have expected and its visual effects, the biggest chance the film has at a nomination, lived up to expectations. Visual Effects are a strong possibility as are Sound and Sound Effects. So, with a little effort, if Sony puts money into all three branches for campaigns, the parent could end up racking up several nominations.

Once upon a time, Disney was a very big studio that churned out respected films for both families and Oscars. However, their increasing devotion to family films has marginalized their offerings to mostly animated pictures. And now that they have Pixar fully under their umbrella (instead of just as a distributor), their chances grow even larger. They have several films in contention for Animated Feature, but the one with the best chances are Pixar’s Up, their first foray back into hand-drawn animation The Princess and the Frog, their latest Hayao Miyazaki entry Ponyo and the motion capture animated holiday film A Christmas Carol. Look for only two of these to make it through and my guess is the first two, but anything can happen and a race with all four would be very irritating to most other studios. But, other than this, they have nothing else to offer except what Miramax pumps out, which is where they seem to have shifted all their decidedly non-family enterprises.

Though, not technically one of the “Majors”, the names that founded it cause me to regularly consider it one of the, and for DreamWorks, their output is fairly minimal, but they pair up quite frequently with other companies. So, it’s hard to tell who gets campaign duties. For certain, Monsters vs. Aliens is competing under their banner. The one film that carries DreamWorks as a sole production studio is The Lovely Bones, which is sure to be an Oscar-cash cow in the making as it is often cited as one of the key films of the Oscar season despite having been little seen in preview or by critics. With Monsters competing and likely being defeated solely in the Animated Feature category, there’s nothing stop DW from really pushing hard on Bones.

The studio that shared distribution rights on Bones with DreamWorks is Paramount which also did double duty on Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen and The Soloist. With the former guaranteed to compete whether there’s a campaign mounted for it or not and the latter having been dumped early in the year after losing its prime 2008 Oscar position, Paramount has to look elsewhere. They have two other choices. One, Star Trek will need all the publicity it can get having disappeared from most radars after its successful summer box office romp. Some still think the film can make one of the newly-expanded slots in the Best Picture race, but I remain doubtful. Additionally, its chances in some of the below-the-line tech categories may meet a few roadblocks as well pushing most of the studio’s hopes onto one film: Up in the Air. This George Clooney film is already receiving heavy buzz and is probably going to end up as one of the bigger vote-getters come January.

Sony’s Tri-Star banner has two flicks in competition. Planet 51 is going to have to seriously impress critics and audiences to make a dent in the Animated Feature category, so really the only hope the studio has of some nominations is District 9. In some circles, this is the genre film that is most likely to place in the Best Picture race over something like Trek, but the bubble has long burst on the film and fewer and fewer people are talking about it seriously. With so little to go around over at Columbia, Sony might put a little weight behind District 9, though it might also want to focus on its specialty arm, which has a number of films in competition, though most of them will be excluded from the Best Picture race.

20th Century-Fox has two really good prospects, one tech-only contender and an Animated Feature short-lister that suffers from sequel-itis. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs is more likely to follow its predecessor Ice Age 2: The Meltdown than Shrek 2. X-Men: Origins: Wolverine is only contending in tech categories and, at this point, may only find itself in the running for Best Makeup. The remaining two films are the studio’s best chances at getting nominated. The Fantastic Mr. Fox (even though I’ll mention it again under Fox Searchlight from whom the film is getting its Oscar push) was a fairly good bet for Animated Feature when the category was limited to three, but like Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, it’s chances doubled when the category expanded to five. It was part of my original predictions for the three-spot category, so I have little doubt it will make the final list. The other film is a bit of a question mark. Avatar has developed major buzz. It’s James Cameron’s first film since his record-breaking (at the Box Office and the Oscars) Titanic in 1997. A twelve year wait is enough to pique even the most skeptical interest, even if negatively. But the supposed breakthrough in 3D visual effects and the massive love story, even if an unconventional sci-fi one, pair to make this one of those films that may just squeak through into Best Picture just for the sheer breadth of it. However, the only categories it’s truly expected to get nominations in are the sound categories and Best Visual Effects.

Universal peaked extremely early this year and the four films that would have seemed to have given the studio some strong prospects have almost entirely faded from view. Duplicity might have earned some topline screenwriting and acting nods were it not released so early in the year. A very strong push will be required. The same can be said for Public Enemies, which was supposed to bring Michael Mann closer than ever to Best Director, but fell short in many estimations. Performing dismally overall and proving that Judd Apatow doesn’t always turn his films into solid gold, Funny People has been all but forgotten at this point. The studio’s only real shot, and an increasingly stronger possibility with a five-nominee field, is with the animated film Coraline. It could easily be dropped from the lineup because the voters may not want to put two heavily dramatic films into the lineup (The Fantastic Mr. Fox may be pushing it out), but with so little else on its plate, this could be the one time where a concentrated effort paid off.

That leaves Warner Bros. in tonight’s update. They have such a bevvy of potential contenders, that I’ve managed to take up nine slots for films in this section, so bare with, it may be long. Let’s start by tossing aside the early-year releases and critical duds that aren’t likely to get screeners or much of a push. Watchmen could have contended in a number of tech categories and still might, but graphic novels produced early in the year don’t fare very well (hell, even the critically lauded V for Vendetta wasn’t much of a contender), so its chances were dropped months ago. Terminator Salvation was ravaged by critics and audiences alike, proving not to be the surefire box office hit that everyone was expecting. It still performed well and made a lot of money, but it’s considered a failure in most circles. It could have been a strong runner in the tech categories, but even the Visual Effects category seems to be a distant memory at this point. For being a big box office success and earning better-than-expected critical notices, The Hangover seems to have disappeared from consideration when, at one point, people were talking about it getting an Original Screenplay nomination if nothing else. At this point, with so many other films (six to be precise) more recently positioned, Hangover is not going to celebrate its title at the Governors’ Ball. Sherlock Holmes, which is likely to get some negative critical attention, but do well at the box office, will only be running this year’s Oscar race in the tech categories Art Direction and Costume Design, perhaps even Makeup. The rest of the film doesn’t seem like it could pull nominations out of its bowler.

Of the remaining five films in Warner’s stable, only two are iffy propositions. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince could follow past incarnations to Art Direction, Cinematography or Score nominations, but there are plenty of other more recent flicks out there and this one wasn’t nearly as daring as its predecessors, but that won’t stop Warner from trying. The second film is the Sandra Bullock starrer The Blind Side. They’re giving it a full list of nominations, but the film’s only real shot is at a Best Actress nomination for the box office darling Bullock whose been on the cusp of a nod for years and, if the category is too weak, could sneak in with a nod, though that possibility is still rather remote.

That leaves Invictus, The Informant! and Where the Wild Things Are. The box office failure that greeted Informant has tempered much of the talk of Matt Damon picking up a Best Actor nod, but may not ultimately keep the film out of contention. Best Adapted Screenplay could be grabbed with the right effort. But, this film also has to compete with the critically supported and moderate box office success of Where the Wild Things Are. While it was more talked about before it opened, there’s still the chance it could emerge from a weak field for a surprise nomination or two. However, at this point, there are no guarantees without critics awards, which are very unlikely to follow. That means that Warner Bros. best shot, and one that I think will ultimately pan out, is Clint Eastwood’s latest Invictus. The film seems cut from the same cloth as past Best Picture winner Chariots of Fire. It’s an inspirational sports saga with not only Eastwood’s name attached, but those of Morgan Freeman and Matt Damon. If the film is even remotely good, it’s in. Otherwise, it could be more akin to the last two Eastwood efforts, Gran Torino and Changeling which only earned three nominations, for the latter film. But, this is his only film this year, so he shouldn’t cannibalize himself.

Reading through the Majors, one might get the impression of a relatively dismal, or at least banal, year in film, but the Independents and the Minors that I’ll discuss in later issues, hold a wide array of quality achievements that could ultimately pull off a few victories.