FOR AN OSCAR MORNING TRACKING SHEET, CLICK HERE. My predictions are in BOLD.

On Thursday morning, January 10, 2013, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will be announcing its nominees for the 85th Annual Academy Awards. It will be broadcast live at just after 5:30a PST (6:30a MST, 7:30a CST, 8:30a EST). This year, Academy president Hawk Koch will NOT be co-presenting the annual nominations announcement. Instead, telecast host Seth MacFarlane will be doing the honors, a situation that hasn’t occurred in nearly 40 years. Another break with tradition comes with his co-announcer. Emma Stone is the first non-Oscar nominee to announce the Oscar nominations since the mid-1980’s.

While the morning shows will cover the event, they are on tape delay for the rest of the country, so watching those may get you the information later than most everyone else. Your best bet is to watch live coverage on E! and maybe CNN Live or some of the other news channels (if they feel like it). I will, however, be updating my site with the information as I receive it.

The first announcement I post will be the short list of categories announced live, then as I get more information, I will update that post with the rest of it.

Every year, I provide a primer for Oscar Nominations Morning, a way to help you get in the right frame of mind and understand what’s going on and when.
The most important thing to know before sitting down to the announcement, is what order the categories will be announced in. To make it easier, I have put them in order below so you can just follow along as you need to. In addition, I have prepared a .pdf file you can print out and check off as the nominees are announced (it’s what I usually do anyway).

In addition, since I have not written up a specific article with my personal opinions on this race, I will add a separate, hopefully brief item within each category below.

Since 1991, Supporting Actor and Lead Actor had always been announced ahead of their Actress counterparts. For the last several years, Supporting Actress and Lead Actress have lead their counterparts. So, we’ll go with the current trend.

Last year, they declared they would not be using TV screens for the Best Picture announcement. However, they ended up doing so anyway. This year, we’ll assume the same methodology.

Best Supporting Actress

Whether they use the screens or not, Best Supporting Actress (or Best Supporting Actor if they decide to change things up) will lead off the nominations announcements.

My Thoughts: This category is one of two that seems to be fluctuating regularly. Other than Anne Hathaway, Sally Field and Helen Hunt, the remaining two slots have been a toss-up between a number of notable names. Foremost in those mentions is Amy Adams who’s had a successful precursor run. It’s very likely she’ll be the fourth nominee. The fifth, however, is being heavily debated. Some say the aging contingent of the Academy will voice their support for Maggie Smith’s turn in The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. Such a situation has occurred before, but has been far more infrequent in recent years. Nicole Kidman has been surprisingly viable this season with The Paperboy, which means she’s also in contention for that fifth slot. Ann Dowd has financed her own Oscar campaign for Compliance and thus could be a major threat for a nomination while some predict Samantha Barks could get in if Les Misérables does incredibly well this year. Right now, I’m leaning towards Nicole Kidman. I very much want to predict Ann Dowd, but she hasn’t been seen here I expected her to (a veteran character actress should have scored with SAG, but didn’t), so I’m leaning Kidman at this point.

The Announcement: The first name on the list will tell us a great deal about what we should expect from the rest of the Oscar nominations. Namely, the first two names that could appear on the list are films that have questionable clout with Oscar voters. Amy Adams is on my list as a prediction, but if she isn’t mentioned, The Master is going to come away with disappointing few nominations and the chances of Joaquin Phoenix making it into Best Actor diminish tremendously. Samantha Barks could take her place for Les Misérables and if she does, or at least comes up second on the list, then we’ll know Les Mis will be featuring heavily in a number of categories.

If we assume Adams is the first name on the list, then the second name could also tell us how the rest of the field goes. Dowd or Barks could come in second, setting up a disappointing day for Kidman. If both are listed, my inclination is to believe that Hunt may slide off the list, but I’m doubtful of that. Of course, Adams going away could allow both Barks and Dowd to show up kicking Kidman to the curb and no one else. Following these will be the three I’m certain will be nominated: Field, Hathaway and Hunt. Either the slate will be full at this point or something interesting could happen. Isabelle Huppert hasn’t been much in the conversation this year for Amour, but an exceptionally strong performance by that film could be pressaged by Hupper’s inclusion in the Supporting Actress slate. If Huppert isn’t number five, then Kidman is likely to be. However, the last name could be Smith, meaning Marigold may have a shot at a Best Picture nomination, or more surprising would be a fifth-slot appearance of past nominee Jacki Weaver. Silver Linings Playbook has been doing sub-par this Oscar season in spite of being Harvey Weinstein’s strongest chance at a Best Picture nomination. If Weaver is here, then the film will figure in a number of key races and might just end up the film to beat. I doubt that scenario, but it’s always a possibility.

Adams, Barks, Dench, Dowd, Field, Hathaway, Hunt, Huppert, Kidman, Smith, Weaver

Best Supporting Actor

My Thoughts: There are three names I will be shocked not to hear read aloud on Thursday morning. Alan Arkin, Philip Seymour Hoffman and Tommy Lee Jones have been on everyone’s lists for months and they have plenty of precursor support to certify them as safe. The remaining two slots will come down to two things: the level of support of a particular film and how voters split on two performances from one film. That one film, Django Unchained has long been considered a safe bet for an Oscar nomination in Supporting Actor and nowhere else. Most of the discussion has been over whether Leonardo DiCaprio will earn the nod or Christoph Waltz. Waltz has the edge simply because he’s been to the dance before with Tarantino. DiCaprio’s trouble is that on the numerous occasions he’s been discussed as a strong contender, he frequently comes up short. Whether it’s Titanic or Gangs of New York or Reservation Road. While I doubt DiCaprio will be the choice, I wouldn’t be surprised either. The fifth slot, I believe, will end up in the hands of legend Robert De Niro who hasn’t earned an Oscar nomination in more than twenty years. His status as important cinematic figure and his film’s prominence in the race should mean he skates by with a nomination.

The first factor I mentioned applies to several individuals. if Javier Bardem is selected, then Skyfall could end up a Best Picture nominee. If Russell Crowe is nominated, Les Mis will have earned a lot of nominations, probably the most out of any release. If John Goodman gets the nod for Argo, then we may be looking at a film with stronger support than we originally anticipated, meaning he could be a key player in the Best Picture race. Samuel L. Jackson making it in alongside Waltz or DiCaprio could also mean big things for Django, as could both Waltz AND DiCaprio making it through. If Beasts of the Southern Wild is a real contender for a Best Picture nomination, then Dwight Henry could very well end up an Oscar nominee…and his inclusion would almost guarantee it’s Best Picture chances. Ewan McGregor’s inclusion could mean The Impossible makes a surprise entry in the Best Picture race while Eddie Redmayne being included would go along the same lines as Crowe’s nomination. The one person who doesn’t have anything going for him other than surprise support from critics is Matthew McConaughey. He’s been in Hollywood a long time and could nab a nomination for an arguably terrific year for him in film. The problem is which film will he be nominated for. That lack of cohesion to a specific performance may indicate why he isn’t as solid a contender as he might otherwise have been.

The Announcement: Arkin will be the first name read off. The second name could be one of six that will tell us a lot about the rest of the morning’s nominations. Bardem, Crowe, De Niro, Goodman and Henry are all in the race and any one of them would point to a good day for their respective films. DiCaprio, which would appear after De Niro if anywhere, would tell us that Waltz is probably the absent nominee. After the first two or three slots are ironed out between the aforementioned folk, Hoffman will take up the third or fourth berth on the list. After him, you’ll likely hear Jones’ name as Jackson really isn’t much of a competitor. The question at this point is whether Jones is the fourth name read or the fifth. If the fifth, Les Mis might be in trouble if Crowe wasn’t selected. Most likely, though, Jones will be the fourth name, leaving the final slot a competition between McConaughey, Redmayne and Waltz with McGregor as a possible spoiler. If the first three names are the race’s locks, Matthew McConaughey will likely be the fourth name followed up by Redmayne or Waltz. This scenario is the least likely, but still possible. My guess is that Jones goes fourth and Waltz picks up the fifth slot if DiCaprio isn’t one of the first four. If he is, McConaughey could be sitting pretty or possibly even Redmayne.

Arkin, Bardem, Crowe, De Niro, DiCaprio, Goodman, Henry, Hoffman, Jackson, Jones, McConaughey, McGregor, Redmayne, Waltz

Best Actress

My Thoughts: There are only two actresses whose omissions would be undeniably shocking. Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence have been solidly on everyone’s lists for months and their run through the precursors has nothing but solidified that. The remaining three slots seem to be in constant flux with six actresses rotating into predictions throughout the year. Three of them are Oscar winners already: Helen Mirren, Rachel Weisz and Marion Cotillard. A fourth is a past Oscar nominee: Naomi Watts. The other two have never been to the Oscars before and would representing two separate, distinct records should either get nominated. Emmanuell Riva could become the oldest Oscar nominee in Best Actress history while Quvenzhané Wallis could be the youngest. There are a few names bandied about as spoilers like Keira Knightley in Anna Karenina, Michelle Williams in Take This Waltz and Maggie Smith in Quartet, but none of them seem like they have much chance.

Of the six, it’s hard to know what’s in the Academy’s heads, but two names seem to be mentioned more frequently than others: Helen Mirren, a perennial Oscar favorite to nominate and Marion Cotillard. The Cotillard love is hard to understand considering how few people have actually seen her performance, but it’s the type of weepy/showboaty performance that the Academy does love to recognize. Mirren, is somewhat like Meryl Streep in that she could probably get a nomination for reading the phone book. The fifth slot, I think will come down to a first-of-its-kind double foreign lingo nomination for Emmanuell Riva whose had a strong run of the precursors or to indie-affectation of the week Quvenzhané Wallis. Although Weisz has gotten far more traction in recent days than Wallis (as has Watts for that matter), Wallis seems to be the kind of nomination the Academy loves to make just to show that it appreciates young actors. Of course, either Mirren or Cotillard could give way to Weisz or, more likely Watts, for roles that are very sentimental. This is the one category I feel very uncomfortable making a prediction in simply because there are so many variables, I don’t know which to take seriously.

Riva needed the Screen Actors Guild nomination to remain vital, but that mention went to Naomi Watts. Weisz seems to be struggling, but the early screener shipment of her film means a lot of Academy voters got a chance to see the film before the later arrivals of Hitchcock, The Impossible or Beasts of the Southern Wild. You could almost put Chastain and Lawrence into the list and randomly draw three names out and have a better chance of being right than any educated guess at this point.

The Announcement: One of the worst aspects of this race to anticipate what’s coming is that three of the six major contenders for those three slots are located at the end of the alphabet. Chastain will easily start things off and the second name mentioned will determine whether one of the three free slots is awarded to Cotillard or if they are going elsewhere. If Lawrence is the second name, then I am certain Riva will be the lone foreign language actress on the list. If Lawrence is third after Cotillard in second, then the fourth and fifth names will belong to Mirren, Riva, Wallis or Watts. Mirren is likely to be the fourth name read, but if Lawrence is second, not only will Mirren be third, but Riva is most likely to be fourth leaving Wallis, Watts and Weisz combating for slot five. Of course, if Riva is miraculously third, the remaining two slots will likely be Wallis and Watts or Watts and Weisz. I doubt that both Wallis and Weisz would make this list together at the expense of Watts.

Chastain, Cotillard, Knightley, Lawrence, Mirren, Riva, Smith, Wallis, Watts, Weisz, Williams

Best Actor

My Thoughts: Once again, we have two names that will be on the list regardless what else happens. Daniel Day-Lewis and Denzel Washington are locked in. Many believe that John Hawkes is a near-lock, but I question his film’s standing in the race now that The Sessions has been ignored by all but the Screen Actors Guild. Still, Hawkes is a fairly solid bet and of the three remaining slots, I think he has the least to worry about. The remaining two slots are being fought over by three men: Bradley Cooper, Joaquin Phoenix and Hugh Jackman. Some think that Jackman is the weakest link, but I think Cooper has more to worry about than Jackman.

Les Mis has been appearing in countless guild award precursors whereas Silver Linings Playbook missed the crucial DGA nomination. Les Mis has the benefit of having been largely in the public eye during the voting period, giving it a strong standing. In addition, Tony winner Jackman seems to be riding some great emotion and with his well received Oscar hosting job, I think Jackman has a lot of in-roads…on top of all of that, he is incredibly well liked, which worked wonders for Sandra Bullock when she emerged as the frontrunner for The Blind Side. In addition, the love of Silver Linings Playbook is hard to guess since it doesn’t seem to be much in most conversations these days other than everyone expects it to do well with Harvey’s hand guiding it. For that reason and that alone, I give Cooper an edge over Phoenix.

Phoenix has his detractors. If there’s a film performing worse with the guilds than Silver Linings, it’s The Master. The film failed to make the PGA list for Best Picture, the DGA list for Best Director and the Art Directors Guild list for Best Art Direction. While the latter wouldn’t seem like a big snub, a series of snubs is disastrous. The biggest snub of all came from the Screen Actors Guild which gave the multi-critic award-winning thespian the snub. I’m beginning to wonder if its veiled attack on Scientology is fueling some of the anti-Master reaction. Critics aren’t typically swayed by things like that, but if enough members of the group are also Academy members (and there are several), it could be disastrous. Add to that the bizarre behavior Phoenix displayed during his performance art tour and combine that with his vocal disrespect of the Academy itself and I think Phoenix may be sidelined this year.

The Announcement: We’ll know right off the bat if Joaquin Phoenix will be an Oscar nominee. Cooper’s name would precede guaranteed nominee Daniel Day-Lewis. If Cooper is out, we won’t have to wait long to find out if Phoenix is in. Day-Lewis will unquestionably be first or second. If second, Hawkes has the best shot for third, but if Hawkes isn’t third, it will be Phoenix followed by Jackman and Washington. Whether or not Hawkes is the third name read, the following name has to be Jackman or Phoenix is a nominee. I say that because right now, only two people are keeping Phoenix out of the race: Cooper and Jackman and by this point in the announcement, we’ll know. If both Cooper and Jackman are on the list and Hawkes is also present, that means we will be at four slots and the fith will go undoubtedly to Washington.

Cooper, Day-Lewis, Gere, Hawkes, Jackman, Phoenix, Trintignant, Washington

Best Director

My Thoughts: What would we do without the DGA. For decades, they have been one of the most precise precursors imaginable. For nominations, they frequently pick at least four of the final Oscar nominees for Best Director. While they have matched twice in the last decade, the likelihood of that happening again is relatively low; however, if there’s a bunch that could conceivably make it through, it’s these five. Kathryn Bigelow, Steven Spielberg and Ben Affleck are on everyone’s lists and I doubt they’ll be replaced. Tom Hooper and Ang Lee seem to have the most going against them. Although both have had strong showings at the guilds, Ang Lee’s history of DGA-Oscar cross-over haven’t been very good.

First nominated for Sense and Sensibility with the DGA, Lee was overlooked by the Academy. Then, he managed to win the DGA award for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and became one of the few DGA winners NOT to win an Oscar after a DGA win. He finally nailed both in 2005 when he picked up the DGA award and the Oscar for Brokeback Mountain. This time out, his film is doing very well with critics, has nabbed many of the required precursor nominations and is likely to be Best Picture nominated. So, too, is Tom Hooper. The problem is that Hooper didn’t appear in the Golden Globe nominations and his film isn’t as well liked by critics. However, big productions, regardless of how well liked they are, have done well with the Oscars in the past and it’s hard to believe a film would get so many nominations (we’re looking at anywhere from 9 to 12) without a Best Director nomination.

The problem for me is that there are four prominent directors fighting both Lee and Hooper for the fourth and fifth spot, making it an almost six-way race. Quentin Tarantino and Paul Thomas Anderson are past Oscar nominees and both could easily get in, but the love of The Master has waned a bit and Django Unchained was taking off in the middle of balloting. Wes Anderson seems like the least likely of the six directors to make the cut, but the one director I’d keep my eye on is Michael Haneke. Haneke’s films have gotten some Oscar attention recent years and his film is a dark horse contender for a Best Picture nomination. Before the ten-wide list for Best Picture, Haneke would have made the perfect sense as the Lone Director nominee (a director who’s film wasn’t nominated for Best Picture). This slot typically went to a prominent foreign language director and Amour seems the most likely film to tickle the interests of the small directors branch. I’m going to hedge and say that DGA gets it five-for-five, but I would not be shocked to see Lee or Hooper removed from the list in favor of one of these other four.

The Announcement: This category is traditionally announced alphabetically by film, not by director, so we’ll review it in that method. Changes in tradition (which seem to already be in evidence for the announcement) might change that. Fair warning. If we’re going by film title, then the first film announced will tell us a great deal about the race. Argo is a fairly certain selection and if it’s first on the list, then Michael Haneke’s out of it. If the second film listed is Django Unchained, then our next selection will either be Tom Hooper or Ang Lee, but not both (let it also be known that I’m not certain if they will alphabetize Les Mis by the L or the M, so it could be there or after Lincoln/The Master, I’m going to hedge my bets and put it alphabetically before Life of Pi.

By the time we get to Les Mis, Life of Pi and Lincoln, we’ll know the rest of the nominees. Lincoln will be either the third or fourth title on the list. If it’s the third, Anderson and Bigelow will fill out the list. If Lincoln is fourth, then Anderson is out and Bigelow is in.

Amour, Argo, Django Unchained, Flight, Les Misérables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, The Master, Moonrise Kingdom, Zero Dark Thirty

Best Original Screenplay

My Thoughts: I’ll admit that I’m not the best at predicting the writing categories. That is in terms of nominations. I’m pretty good at predicting them for the Oscars. However, this year’s crop seems to come down to a handful of films that may or may not look like the Writers Guild of America list. The WGA restricts eligibility to WGA-contract films and typically does not include non-members. Thus, a number of prominent contenders weren’t on the WGA’s list. Typically, you can take three to maybe four of their films and give them Oscar nominations and then fill in the blank with those that weren’t eligible.

For Best Original Screenplay, there are three films on the WGA list that are certain to end up on Oscar list. The Master, Moonrise Kingdom and Zero Dark Thirty. Flight and Looper were the two films that received WGA nominations that I doubt will carry over with Flight being the most likely to be excised. Without Flight, the fifth slot would go to Django Unchained. The Academy loves Tarantino and will very likely give him a nomination here even if he doesn’t appear in Best Director. If Looper is dumped, I think Amour has a strong chance of getting in. The Academy’s writers have frequently nominated foreign language films for these awards and Amour seems like just the kind of screenplay they would pick. I might ALMOST rank it ahead of Django Unchained, except I’m more certain Django will be a Best Picture nominee than I am Amour getting in. Other potential nominees include Arbitrage, The Intouchables and Safety Not Guaranteed, but the likelihood of any of these making it through is small.

The Announcement: Our two unknown contenders will be the first two announced, so that should give us time to catch our breaths. Amour should be first, followed by Django Unchained, then The Master, Moonrise Kingdom and Zero Dark Thirty. Now, if something strange happens, we’ll know right away. If either Amour or Django miss, then Looper might just be in. If both are out, the WGA will have a rare five-for-five prediction. What happens if Amour and Django are in and we hear Looper third? Something dire will have happened and we’ll know as soon as we hear the fourth title what occurred. Either The Master‘s fortunes will be bust or Moonrise Kingdom‘s will be. Zero Dark Thirty is in regardless of what else happens. If either of those two M films don’t make the cut, then the Best Picture race may be without that film.

Amour, Arbitrage, Django Unchained, Flight, The Intouchables, Looper, The Master, Moonrise Kingdom, Safety Not Guaranteed, Zero Dark Thirty

Best Adapted Screenplay

My Thoughts: The writing categories are generally the first sign that a film is troubled. Apart from Les Misérables, any film that misses the Best Adapted Screenplay list is in trouble. Argo and Lincoln are the only two films I feel comfortable declaring safe. While I think Silver Linings Playbook is going to be David O. Russell’s only Oscar nomination, it is still vulnerable. Those three are all on the WGA list, which means the remaining two WGA nominees are in trouble. Life of Pi, whether actually impossible to adapt to the big screen or perceived to be, is very likely to give the WGA a four-for-five success this year. The problem is that The Perks of Being a Wallflower might make the fifth, which would be a pleasant surprise. The film could even make it in over Pi, but I doubt that. So, with two slots for sure and two nearly for sure, that leaves The Perks defending against three films. Anna Karenina seems to be out of the race and Les Misérables was eligible for WGA, so its omission is pretty telling. That leaves either The Sessions or Beasts of the Southern Wild to take Wallflower‘s place, which I think is ultimately likely, The Sessions being the least likely of the two outcomes.

The Announcement: Argo will be first out of the gate and the second title will tell us one of two things if it’s Beasts. The first is that it will likely be among the Best Picture nominees for the year and that Perks has been ignored. If by a surprise Life of Pi is mentioned second, then The Perks of Being a Wallflower isn’t out of the woods yet. The Sessions could still creep in to take its place, but that will happen when we get to the fourth title on the list, which will either be Lincoln, Perks or Sessions. The fifth title will be Silver Linings Playbook.

Anna Karenina, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Les Misérables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, The Perks of Being a Wallflower, The Sessions, Silver Linings Playbook

Best Foreign Language Film

My Thoughts: I’m rather lost with this category as more often than not, the films I think are most likely to get nominated aren’t appealing enough to the narrow electorate’s taste and they ultimately get left off. With rumor having it that Amour was saved by the branch’s committee, its chances for a nomination might be minimal. However, it’s constant presence with the critics will probably net it a nomination even if it is going to struggle to win. The Intouchables and A Royal Affair fit the mold of a Best Foreign Language Film nominee, so I’d be surprised not to see either of them. That leaves two spots and six films to fill them. I discount Sister based on subject matter, for the same reason I kept out Kon-Tiki in spite of a nagging suspicion that it will make the cut. I gave the edge to No and War Witch, which by descriptions would seem the most likely benefactors of foreign lingo benevolence.

The Announcement: We start off knowing whether Amour is as strong as has been thought. Failure to get in here or any prior categories means a Best Picture nomination is out of the realm of possibility. If Amour isn’t first, then I think that Beyond the Hills might take it’s place, but The Intouchables could very well be first as well. If it is, then I’d put either Kon-Tiki or Sister in, but don’t guarantee either. After The Intouchables, it’s either Kon-Tiki or No, then A Royal Affair and either Sister or War Watch. The only nomination here that will mean anything beyond the category is a nomination or lack of nomination for Amour.

Amour, Beyond the Hills, The Deep, The Intouchables, Kon-Tiki, No, A Royal Affair, Sister, War Witch

Best Animated Film

My Thoughts: I think there are three films that we are unlikely to miss in this category with a fourth film being all but certain. Brave is Pixar’s sole entry this year (they never have more than one mind you), but isn’t the only Disney contender. Brave did far better with the Annie Awards nominations than I thought, so it’s probably going to restart the Pixar tradition that Cars 2 destroyed. Frankenweenie and ParaNorman, two sides of a similar bizarre coin, have been the most frequently cited by critics, so either missing out would be surprise. Though, if I had to dump one in favor of the other, I’d bet Frankenweenie disappears. DreamWorks has a very strong tradition with the Academy, though I think it’s chances may have dried up here. Rise of the Guardians seems to be their only film that’s picking up any traction and its weak performance with critics may keep it out of the race. Wreck-It Ralph marks Disney’s third contender on the list and I wouldn’t doubt if it makes it through. Not only was it one of the most nominated at the Annie Awards, the film has been regularly listed as one of the years best and also has the benefit of being the most recently released of all of the nominees except Rise of the Guardians. On top of all that, Ralph has earned very strong reviews and is easily one of the best reviewed of the year.

Most people have been predicting an all-studio list with the three Disney titles plus ParaNorman and Guardians. However, if it’s one thing Oscar history has taught us it’s that the animators love nominating foreign entries and independent films. Enter From Up on Poppy Hill, The Painting, The Rabbi’s Cat and Zarafa (and possibly any one of the others of which I have little knowledge). I’d love for The Pirates! to snag a nomination, but I think that The Rabbi’s Cat, which was the only indie-produced nominee in the Best Animated Feature category at the Annie Awards, seems to have the pedigree for the nomination. It was also nominated for Best Directing at the Annies, which further cements my decision to put it into the five nominees in place of Guardians.

The Announcement:

Adventures in Zambezia, Brave, Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax, Frankenweenie, From Up on Poppy Hill, Hey Krishna, Hotel Transylvania, A Liar’s Autobiography, Madagascar 3, The Mystical Laws, The Painting, ParaNorman, The Pirates! Band of Misfits, The Rabbi’s Cat, Rise of the Guardians, Walter & Tandoor’s Christmas, Wreck-It Ralph, Zarafa

Best Picture

It’s time to hit Best Picture. And since we’re only getting the nominations in a random order, the best way to highlight the competing films is alphabetically. I’ll include my personal thoughts along with analyses you can apply from the prior announcements to decide which films will finish off the morning with nominations for the big prize.

Amour – The film has earned rave reviews, but has also been cited as a particularly challenging film to watch because of its depressing nature. Academy members love to cry, but they don’t necessarily love to be raked over the coals beforehand. I think the film’s performance in prior categories will tell us if it’s liked enough to make it here. In order for it to make the Best Picture list, I think the film has to be nominated for both Best Director and Best Actress. It can earn nods for either and not be a safe choice, but both would give me pause to believe it has made it through. Also picking up a writing nomination and Foreign Language film would further solidify my belief that it’s on the list. However, I ultimately think the film will fail to get most of those and its chances will be doomed. The shock nomination that could guarantee it’s nomination? Jean Louis Trintignant getting a heart attack-inducing shock as a Best Actor nominee.

Argo – One of five films I think are locks for a Best Picture nomination. Whereas Affleck’s The Town was also a PGA nominee, it was largely ignored by most other groups. This time, Argo has been consistently in the running and were it not to be nominated, I’d be surprised. I happen to also think it might emerge the winner this year, but it may be too early to know for sure.

Beasts of the Southern Wild – I’m reticent to give this film a Best Picture berth. It may not get the 5% of first-place votes needed to make the final list, which will keep it off. If the film shows up in Adapted Screenplay and Actress, it might be a nominee. A nomination for Supporting Actor guarantees it a spot. Its inclusion in the PGA list shows there is admiration for it, but their voting requirements aren’t as stringent as the Academy’s and this year’s voting could finally, adequately demonstrate how the Academy’s unusual rules impact the nominations.

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel – There is some truth to the adage that an early year hit with older Academy voters goes a long way. Having little around you to compare with and being enjoyed certainly gives an early release advantage. The problem is that the film has been virtually ignored by the precursors and apart from Maggie Smith in Best Supporting Actress, I see little signs pointing to that outcome. Smith getting in won’t mean much, but if Judi Dench secures a shock Best Actress nomination or the film gets a Best Adapted Screenplay nod, then it stands to reason that the film has a lot more support than any of us are expecting.

Django Unchained – It isn’t Inglourious Basterds, but it is a box office hit. The film did well with critics, so it could be in the competition, but are there enough Quentin Tarantino fans in the Academy who aren’t also fans of Paul Thomas Anderson or Wes Anderson? Those three directors seem to share a common list of appreciators, so any one of them could suffer at the hands of a better-liked alternative. I think it could very easily earn a slot and would likely be my seventh or eighth title on the list of possible ten. A double nomination in Supporting Actor or a nomination for Director could secure its Best Picture inclusion.

Flight – The film hasn’t had nearly the success with guilds that it needs to be a Best Picture contender. Although Denzel Washington is assured a Best Actor nomination and the film is going to pick up a few tech prizes, I don’t think Best Picture is in the cards. An Original Screenplay nomination is the only thing that could make me rethink its chances for a Best Picture nomination.

The Impossible – The film has earned decent reviews and is a tear-jerker. The film doesn’t seem like your typical Best Picture slate, but some believe its late-minute arrival could mean a last-minute inclusion. I doubt these claims as it sounds more like Children of Men, a film that was released far too late in the year for enough people to see it despite being one of the most acclaimed films of the year. If Naomi Watts is nominated, I might give those thoughts credence. If Ewan McGregor is nominated, I’d say a Best Picture nomination might actually be in the works.

Les Misérables – Before the critics largely ripped through the film, this was the to-beat film of the year. Its prospects have diminished, but if there’s one thing we can be assured of it’s that it’s probably the fifth or sixth title on the list of most likely nominees. The film not showing up in Supporting Actress or, especially, Actor would suggest the film doesn’t have the right level of support, it could still pick up the nomination, but it could just as easily miss it. A nomination for Best Director or Best Supporting Actor would guarantee a nomination for Best Picture.

Life of Pi – This title runs in sixth or seventh place on my list of possible Best Picture nominees. It’s been everywhere at the precursors and with the strong support it will receive from the creative branches of the Academy, a Best Picture nomination seems fairly certain. A Best Director nomination would certainly be proof that it’s going to be on the list, but a Best Adapted Screenplay nod would also suggest that.

Lincoln – I feel almost foolish for even discussing the film’s chances. If Spielberg can get the critically unloved War Horse nominated for Best Picture or even a surprise Best Picture nod for Munich, then a critically acclaimed film that seems to be his most celebrated since at least Saving Private Ryan and probably more so than anything but Schindler’s List, should have clear sailing to a nomination. If Sally Field, Tommy Lee Jones or Daniel Day-Lewis should be left off, then fans of the film need to be worried, but not too worried…unless of course it’s Day-Lewis who’s absent and then all bets are off.

The Master – The critics have hailed it as one of the best films of the year and even though it’s been a dominant presence in the precursors, the film seems to be fading as time goes on. As I mentioned before, the film missed nominations for the DGA and PGA, which should be enough to alarm its fans; but, the DGA failure is probably the most damning. The film seems to be on track to be ignored by the Academy. If Phoenix isn’t among the Best Actor nominees, than I would expect the film to be left off the list altogether. However, Phoenix getting in may mean the support is stronger than we expected and a Best Picture nomination will be forthcoming. Watch Phoenix and Best Director. Those are the biggest indicators of the film’s future. Should it miss out on Supporting Actress and/or Screenplay, say goodbye.

Moonrise Kingdom – What no one seems to be paying attention to with regard to Moonrise Kingdom is that Scott Rudin is a credited producer. As Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close proved last year: when Rudin wants a Best Picture nomination, he gets one. With Moonrise earning far better notices than Extremely Loud, I have little doubt it will be among the Best Picture nominees. If Anderson is included in Best Director, the film becomes a lock. If the film only receives a writing nomination, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it here. After all, even A Serious Man had a similar trajectory three years ago.

Skyfall – The beneficiary of a PGA nomination, the 50th Anniversary of the Bond franchise may find a Bond film in the Best Picture race for the first time in history. The problem is, the film hasn’t won much else. Sure Javier Bardem and Judi Dench have earned awards and nominations for their performances and the film has won its share of Cinematography prizes, but neither of those are guarantees for Oscar Best Picture nominations. Star Trek rode strong reviews and a PGA nomination into Oscar season, but was ultimately vanquished by its franchise qualities. Franchises don’t do well with the Academy, even in the era of more-than-five nominees. Still, the film’s chances are decent. If Bardem is nominated, its potential increases. If Dench gets a nomination, then it’s nomination is almost guaranteed.

Silver Linings Playbook – How do you solve a problem like Harvey? Weinstein has been a dominant figure in Oscar campaigning for just over two decades now. For the last two years, he’s turned crowd-pleasing films into Best Picture winners when in others’ hands, they would have only been bridesmaids. Now, he seems to have finally met his match. Silver Linings is a modern-set romantic comedy that he has never sold to Academy voters before, at least not with much success. His past victories have all been with period films, which makes this one a struggle. However, the film has gotten good reviews and positive word of mouth, so it should still be one of the Oscar nominees, though its chances diminish every day that it isn’t released wide (which won’t happen until after the Oscar nominations). If Bradley Cooper does get a nomination for Best Actor, Silver Linings is assured a Best Picture nomination. If not, the film will struggle. A Best Director nomination will also secure its immediate future, but without it might be an also-ran.

Zero Dark Thirty – One of the solid six, a group of films whose absence would be surprising. The film hasn’t gotten a wide release yet, but with all the critics’ awards and praise, plus its constant presence in political media gives it a boost that most films don’t get. Whether that will keep it from winning Best Picture or not remains to be seen, but I would be shocked if it weren’t on the Best Picture roster.

And that’s it. While I could go into details on the other categories I’m predicting (which have been uploaded in the Oscar Hopefuls link on the sidebar), I’m about out of time and will gladly discuss them with anyone who wishes to hear separately, though I may not be able to get to you before Thursday morning.

As always, enjoy the Oscar nominations and we’ll see you on the other side.