Oscar Predictions: It’s May! It’s May!

Today, before our first call for entries in our Oscar prediction contest, we present our first predictions for the 86th Academy Awards. We’ve each got our pet projects and we each chose a few off-the-wall predictions to show that the race isn’t quite settled and that we’re mostly just guessing at what’s going to carry through to the end of the year. There are few early-year release on the below list. The Academy has a tendency to ignore those early pictures, but a few like Fruitvale Station (formerly titled Fruitvale) have the Harvey Weinstein Festival Seal of Approval, which will likely help it to Beasts of the Southern Wild-type early acclaim. Other noted early releases include Mud and Baseball drama 42 along with other festival entries like Before Midnight. This is a volatile part of the year, so when we present our predictions in June, you’ll probably see dynamic shifts.

But always look at those titles and performers who net a solid 3-for-3 mention in our early lists. Of the five films earning all of our predictions for Best Picture in May of 2012, Django Unchained, Lincoln and Les Miserables carried over while The Hobbit sank with critics and The Master couldn’t get past its reputation. The rest of our predictions weren’t great. We got Spielberg early, but also had Tom Hooper down. Daniel Day-Lewis and Hugh Jackman proved we had some foresight towards Best Actor, but Laura Linney, Jude Law and Samantha Barks suggested the other acting categories weren’t so hot. Thank goodness for Sally Field, though.

Of the nine eventual Best Picture nominees, Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild were the only ones not there. The rest of the categories weren’t exceptional. Several of our predictors were the only ones to predict nominations for certain pictures. Here are some “congratulations” for those lone wolf picks. Tripp was the only one to suggest Life of Pi as a Best Picture nominee while Wesley was the only one on the Silver Linings Playbook boat, a boat which sailed for him as the solo predictor in Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress. Peter was the only person to predict Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master, he just slotted him in the lead position and not support where he placed eventual Best Actor nominee Joaquin Phoenix. Still, being the only one to predict both is still a coup. He also picked Helen Hunt for The Sessions (then known as The Surrogate) also in the wrong category. Peter was spot-on in Best Supporting Actress as the only one to predict Amy Adams in May while Tripp pushed Jennifer Lawrence to support for Best Supporting Actress instead of lead where Wesley had already placed her.

We always like to look back fondly at our predictions, but some of them are just bizarre and others are for films that later get bumped to the next year (like Gravity, The Great Gatsby and Lovelace). So, take our predictions with a large granule of sodium chloride and enjoy the fun of looking into your hazy crystal ball and trying to get a grip on the upcoming year.

KEY:

Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists

Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton

(New) = New Prediction
(O) = Original Prediction