In our attempt to update our predictions more frequently throughout the year, we’ve put together our post-Cannes predictions, taking into account what came through Cannes that might have an impact on the year’s Oscar races. Looking through the list, it doesn’t appear to have had much influence on our choices. That said, there were plenty of changes all around.

This month, we also asked our participants to give some brief thoughts on their changes since last month’s edition. This commentary was not required. Here’s what was said:

Wesley Lovell

I didn’t see a lot of changes going around. Jupiter Ascending was pushed to 2015, removing it from several tech races. Foxcatcher is building quite the early reputation in spite of my initial reticence of supporting it. The Railway Man seems to be DOA while Jersey Boys has succumbed to terrible reviews. The only other film I actively removed from several lists was Into the Woods, which was recently revealed to have major changes to its plotting, which will likely affect how it’s perceived since it’s been Disney-fied like to many other recent efforts. Other than that, I’m not sure much of what we’ve got up to this point is going to stick around for the next several months. I’m already starting to question my inclusion of The Immigrant, which in spite of some high profile praise, hasn’t really ignited with audiences and the broader base of critics seem less taken with it than initially expected.

Peter J. Patrick

Picture: This is probably another year in which the nominees will max out at 9. If so, The Imitation Game and Theory of Everything seem to be the most vulnerable at this point. While others have been high on Interstellar and Big Eyes I haven’t been, but they’re growing on me.
Director: Hollywood loves a comeback and if Burton isn’t exactly making one, his anticipated return to critical acceptance is the next best thing. Anderson; Fincher; Lee and Miller here before and any one of them could take the gold, as could Burton. Unless something comes out of left field, I expect these five will be the nominees.
Actor: Breakthroughs for comedian Carrell and character actor Spall could be just the ticket, then so could an anticipated comeback for Keaton or a major star turn for wither Cumberbatch or Redmayne. Ben Affleck in Gone Girl, who I had in my original predictions, may be considered having been honored enough for a while. Those waiting in the wings for one of them to falter include Joaquin Phoenix in Inherent Vice and Oscar Isaac in A Most Violent Year.
Actress: Except for Swank, whose film was shown at Cannes, these are pure speculation. The biggest threat to any of them is, of course, the almost always nominated Meryl Streep as the witch in Into the Woods.
Supporting Actor: Former winners Duvall and Walken are probably also-rans, but Corden as the baker in Into the Woods and both Ruffalo and Tatum in the already screened Foxcatcher seem likely, Ruffalo more so than Tatum but you never know.
Supporting Actress: I don’t know whether Jones is lead or supporting, but her role as Stephen Hawking’s wife in Theory of Everything could finally get the former ingénue a long sought Oscar nomination. Blunt as the baker’s wife and Kendrick as Cinderella in Into the Woods seem to have best chances at acting nominations for the musical. Scott Thomas, who has announced her retirement, is a likely sentimental favorite.
Original Screenplay: Interstellar seems the most vulnerable here.
Adapted Screenplay: All of these look like contenders on paper.

Tripp Burton

No comments provided.

Thomas LaTourrette

Foxcatcher still seems to be the film that people are talking about. It got very good reviews at Cannes. The directors of Inherent Vice, Gone Girl, Trash and Mr. Turner all have good track records for their films in previous Oscar races, so those seem good bets. Whereas, Tim Burton, J.C. Chandor and Christopher Nolan have had a spottier record, so it is hard to guess how their films will do. Rob Marshall runs a bit hot and cold, while I am hoping that Into the Woods will be spectacular, I am more worried that it will be more Nine than Chicago. Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken may be amazing or just not strong enough to cut it. At this point it is all guesses on our parts, but it is part of the fun. It is looking to be a fairly strong year for films. Hopefully all of these will live up to their potential.

KEY:

Best Picture

• Big Eyes (C) [New] (O)
• Birdman (O) (O)
• Exodus: Gods and Kings (C) [New]
• Foxcatcher (O) [New] (O) (O) (O)
• Get On Up (O)
• Gone Girl (O) (O)(O)
• The Grand Budapest Hotel (O) (C) [New]
• The Imitation Game (C) [New]
• The Immigrant (O)
• Inherent Vice (O) (O) (O) (O)
• Interstellar (O) (C) [New] (O) (O)
• Into the Woods (O)(C) [New]
• A Most Violent Year (O) (O)
• Mr. Turner (O) (O) (C) [New]
• Serena (O)
• Theory of Everything (O)
• Trash (O) (O)
• Unbroken (O) (O) (O)
• Wild (O)

Best Director

• Paul Thomas Anderson – Inherent Vice (WL O) (PP C) [New](TL O)
• Susanne Bier – Serena (WL O)
• Tim Burton – Big Eyes (PP C) [New] (TB O)
• J.C. Chandor – A Most Violent Year (TB O) (TL O)
• Stephen Daldry – Trash (TB C) [New] (TL O)
• David Fincher – Gone Girl (WL O) (PP O)(TL C) [New]
• James Gray – The Immigrant (WL O)
• Angelina Jolie – Unbroken (TB C) [New]
• Mike Leigh – Mr. Turner (PP O)
• Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher (WL C) [New] (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Best Actor

• Chadwick Boseman – Get On Up (WL O) (TB O)
• Steve Carell – Foxcatcher (WL C) [New] (PP O) (TB C) [New] (TL O)
• Bradley Cooper – Serena (TB C) [New]
• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game (PP C) [New](TL C) [New]
• Michael Keaton – Birdman (PP O) (TB O)
• Jack O’Connell – Unbroken (TL O)
• Joaquin Phoenix – Inherent Vice (WL O)(TL O)
• Brad Pitt – Fury (WL O)
• Eddie Redmayne – Theory of Everything (WL O) (PP O)
• Timothy Spall – Mr. Turner (PP O) (TB O) (TL C) [New]

Best Actress

• Amy Adams – Big Eyes (PP C) [New] (TB O) (TL O)
• Cate Blanchett – Blackbird (WL O)
• Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year (TB O) (TL O)
• Marion Cotillard – The Immigrant (WL O)(TL C) [New]
• Jennifer Lawrence – Serena (WL O)
• Helen Mirren – The Hundred-Foot Journey (WL O)
• Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl (PP C) [New] (TB O) (TL C) [New]
• Hilary Swank – The Homseman (PP C) [New]
• Naomi Watts – Birdman (WL O)
• Michelle Williams – Suite Francaise (PP C) [New] (TB O) (TL O)
• Reese Witherspoon – Wild (PP C) [New] (TB O)

Best Supporting Actor

• Hugh Bonneville – Paddington (PP O)
• Josh Brolin – Inherent Vice (WL O)(TL O)
• Albert Brooks – A Most Violent Year (TB O)
• James Corden – Into the Woods (PP O)
• Robert Duvall – The Judge (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation (TB O)
• Domnhall Gleeson – Unbroken (TB O)
• Neil Patrick Harris – Gone Girl (WL O)
• Oscar Isaac – Mojave (TL O)
• Toby Jones – Serena (WL O)
• Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher (WL C) [New] (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• J.K. Simmons – Whiplash (TL C) [New]
• Channing Tatum – Foxcatcher (PP C) [New]
• Christopher Walken – Jersey Boys (WL O) (PP O)

Best Supporting Actress

• Patricia Arquette – Boyhood (TL C) [New]
• Emily Blunt – Into the Woods (PP O)
• Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year (PP C) [New]
• Viola Davis – Get On Up (WL O) (TB C) [New] (TL O)
• Felicity Jones – Theory of Everything (PP C) [New]
• Anna Kendrick – Into the Woods (PP O) (TB O)
• Jena Malone – Inherent Vice (TB O) (TL O)
• Rooney Mara – Trash (TB O)
• Vanessa Redgrave – Foxcatcher (TL O)
• Kristin Scott Thomas – Suite Francaise (PP C) [New](TL C) [New]
• Emma Stone – Birdman (WL C) [New] (TB O)
• Meryl Streep – Into the Woods (WL O)
• Tilda Swinton – Snowpiercer (WL O)

Best Original Screenplay

• Big Eyes (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New]
• Birdman (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Boyhood (TL O) [New]
• Foxcatcher (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New]
• The Grand Budapest Hotel (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New]
• The Immigrant (WL O) [New]
• Interstellar (PP O) [New]
• Magic in the Moonlight (TL O) [New]
• A Most Violent Year (PP O) [New](TL O) [New]
• Mr. Turner (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Exodus: Gods and Kings (WL O) [New]
• Foxcatcher (PP O) [New](TL O) [New]
• Gone Girl (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New](TL O) [New]
• The Imitation Game (PP O) [New]
• Inherent Vice (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Serena (WL O) [New]
• Suite Francaise (TB O) [New]
• Theory of Everything (PP O) [New]
• Trash (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Unbroken (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Wild (TB O) [New]