Looking at Film from Every Angle

Oscar Predictions: October 2010

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Wesley Lovell

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October is shaping up to be a unifying month as our four contributors have coalesced around several entries, seemingly having locked in the competition in several categories…at least the major competition. Today, we continue with our series of prediction articles exploring where we think the races are at right now. We still caution everyone that anything can happen between Now and December. Frontrunners can rise and fall, so while we like to think our predictions are pretty damned good, none of us want to set them down in stone quite yet.

When we started our little series in April, only three nominees in six categories were shared on all our list (Tree of Life for Picture, Terrence Malick for Director, and Christian Bale for Supporting Actor). In July, we had five nominees in eight categories in common (Toy Story 3 in Picture, Colin Firth in Actor, Annette Bening in Actress, Bale again, and Elle Fanning in Supporting Actress). Last month, we had fourteen selections appearing on all four lists. This month, we have 26. I still find it endlessly fascinating to watch how our predictions evolve over time and I hope you do as well.

KEY:

Appears on Four Lists
Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists

Split Lead/Supporting Placement 		(R) = Removed Prediction
(N) = New Prediction
(O) = Original Prediction
(J) = July Prediction (or removed in July)
(S) = September Prediction (or removed in September)
(Oc) = October Prediction (or removed in October)
BEST PICTURE
  • The Fighter (N) (Oc)
  • Inception (O)
  • The King’s Speech (N) (Oc)
  • Love and Other Drugs (O)
  • Secretariat (O)
  • The Social Network (S)
  • Somewhere (J)
  • The Town (S)
  • Toy Story 3 (J)
  • True Grit (O)
  • The Ghost Writer (R) (J)
  • How Do You Know? (R) (S)
  • Robin Hood (R) (J)
  • Hereafter (R) (S)
  • The Tree of Life (R) (S)
  • The Debt (R) (Oc)
  • Fair Game (R) (Oc)
  • 127 Hours (J)
  • Black Swan (O)
  • The Fighter (O)
  • Inception (O)
  • The Kids Are All Right (J)
  • The King’s Speech (O)
  • Love and Other Drugs (O)
  • The Social Network (J)
  • Toy Story 3 (J)
  • True Grit (N) (Oc)
  • Hereafter (R) (J)
  • London Boulevard (R) (J)
  • Somewhere (R) (J)
  • The Tree of Life (R) (J)
  • The Way Back (R) (J)
  • True Grit (R) (S)
  • Somewhere (R) (Oc)
  • 127 Hours (S)
  • Another Year (S)
  • The Fighter (S)
  • Inception (S)
  • The King’s Speech (O)
  • Rabbit Hole (N) (Oc)
  • The Social Network (O)
  • Toy Story 3 (O)
  • True Grit (N) (Oc)
  • The Way Back (O)
  • The American (R) (S)
  • Fair Game (R) (S)
  • The Town (R) (S)
  • The Tree of Life (R) (S)
  • Hereafter (R) (Oc)
  • Miral (R) (Oc)
  • 127 Hours (N) (Oc)
  • Another Year (N) (Oc)
  • The Fighter (O)
  • Inception (O)
  • The Kids Are All Right (J)
  • The King’s Speech (J)
  • Made in Dagenham (N) (Oc)
  • The Social Network (O)
  • Toy Story 3 (O)
  • True Grit (S)
  • The Company Men (R) (J)
  • Kick-Ass (R) (J)
  • London Boulevard (R) (J)
  • Ondine (R) (J)
  • Conviction (R) (S)
  • Howl (R) (S)
  • TheTree of Life (R) (S)
  • Black Swan (R) (Oc)
  • Love and Other Drugs (R) (Oc)
BEST DIRECTOR
  • Ben Affleck – The Town (S)
  • David Fincher – The Social Network (S)
  • Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech (N) (Oc)
  • David O. Russell – The Fighter (N) (Oc)
  • Edward Zwick – Love & Other Drugs (S)
  • Roman Polanski – The Ghost Writer (R) (J)
  • James L. Brooks – How Do You Know? (R) (S)
  • Clint Eastwood – Hereafter (R) (S)
  • Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life (R) (S)
  • Joel Coen, Ethan Coen – True Grit (R) (Oc)
  • Doug Liman – Fair Game (R) (Oc)
  • Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan (S)
  • Danny Boyle – 127 Hours (J)
  • David Fincher – The Social Network (S)
  • Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech (O)
  • David O. Russell – The Fighter (J)
  • Clint Eastwood – Hereafter (R) (J)
  • Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life (R) (J)
  • Peter Weir – The Way Back (R) (J)
  • Joel Coen, Ethan Coen – True Grit (R) (S)
  • Christopher Nolan – Inception (R) (S)
  • Danny Boyle – 127 Hours (S)
  • Joel Coen, Ethan Coen – True Grit (N) (Oc)
  • David Fincher – The Social Network (S)
  • Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech (S)
  • Peter Weir – The Way Back (S)
  • Ben Affleck – The Town (R) (S)
  • Anton Corbijn – The American (R) (S)
  • Doug Liman – Fair Game (R) (S)
  • Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life (R) (S)
  • Clint Eastwood – Hereafter (R) (Oc)
  • Danny Boyle – 127 Hours (N) (Oc)
  • David Fincher – The Social Network (O)
  • Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech (N) (Oc)
  • Mike Leigh – Another Year (N) (Oc)
  • Christopher Nolan – Inception (O)
  • Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman – Howl (R) (J)
  • Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life (R) (S)
  • Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan (R) (Oc)
  • David O. Russell – The Fighter (R) (Oc)
  • Peter Weir – The Way Back (R) (Oc)
BEST ACTOR
  • Jeff Bridges – True Grit (O)
  • Colin Firth – The King’s Speech (J)
  • James Franco – 127 Hours (N) (Oc)
  • Jake Gyllenhaal – Love and Other Drugs (O)
  • Mark Wahlberg – The Fighter (S)
  • Jack Nicholson – How Do You Know? (R) (J)
  • Matt Damon – Hereafter (R) (S)
  • Joseph Gordon-Levitt – I’m with Cancer (R) (S)
  • Ryan Gosling – Blue Valentine (R) (Oc)
  • Jeff Bridges – True Grit (N) (Oc)
  • Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network (N) (Oc)
  • Colin Firth – The King’s Speech (O)
  • James Franco – 127 Hours (O)
  • Ryan Gosling – Blue Valentine (J)
  • Colin Farrell – London Boulevard (R) (J)
  • Jake Gyllenhaal – Love and Other Drugs (R) (Oc)
  • Mark Wahlberg – The Fighter (R) (Oc)
  • Jeff Bridges – True Grit (S)
  • Colin Firth – The King’s Speech (O)
  • James Franco – 127 Hours (S)
  • Jake Gyllenhaal – Love and Other Drugs (N) ()
  • Mark Wahlberg – The Fighter (N) ()
  • George Clooney – The American (R) (S)
  • James Franco – Howl (R) (S)
  • Matt Damon – Hereafter (R) (Oc)
  • Sean Penn – Fair Game (R) (Oc)
  • Jeff Bridges – True Grit (S)
  • Jim Broadbent – Another Year (N) (Oc)
  • Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network (J)
  • Colin Firth – The King’s Speech (J)
  • James Franco – 127 Hours (N) (Oc)
  • Ben Affleck – The Company Men (R) (J)
  • Johnny Depp – The Rum Diary (R) (J)
  • Brad Pitt – The Tree of Life (R) (J)
  • James Franco – Howl (R) (S)
  • Jim Sturgess – The Way Back (R) (Oc)
  • Mark Wahlberg – The Fighter (R) (Oc)
BEST ACTRESS
  • Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right (O)
  • Anne Hathaway – Love and Other Drugs (O)
  • Nicole Kidman – The Rabbit Hole (N) (Oc)
  • Julianne Moore – The Kids Are All Right (J)
  • Natalie Portman – Black Swan (N) (Oc)
  • Reese Witherspoon – How Do You Know? (R) (J)
  • Robin Wright Penn – The Conspirator (R) (J)
  • Naomi Watts – Fair Game (R) (Oc)
  • Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone (R) (Oc)
  • Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right (O)
  • Anne Hathaway – Love and Other Drugs (O)
  • Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole (N) (Oc)
  • Natalie Portman – Black Swan (O)
  • Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine (O)
  • Keira Knightley – London Boulevard (R) (J)
  • Naomi Watts – Fair Game (R) (J)
  • The Way Back (R) (J)
  • Lesley Manville – Another Year (R) (S)
  • Diane Lane – Secretariat (R) (Oc)
  • Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right (O)
  • Anne Hathaway – Love and Other Drugs (S)
  • Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole (O)
  • Gwyneth Paltrow – Country Strong (N) (Oc)
  • Natalie Portman – Black Swan (N) (Oc)
  • Julia Roberts – Eat, Pray, Love (R) (S)
  • Naomi Watts – Fair Game (R) (S)
  • Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone (R) (Oc)
  • Helen Mirren – The Tempeset (R) (Oc)
  • Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right (J)
  • Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole (N) (Oc)
  • Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone (J)
  • Lesley Manville – Another Year (N) (Oc)
  • Natalie Portman – Black Swan (S)
  • Angelina Jolie – Salt (R) (J)
  • Keira Knightley – London Boulevard (R) (J)
  • Rachel McAdams – Morning Glory (R) (J)
  • Helen Mirren – Brighten Rock (R) (J)
  • Mia Wasikowska – The Kids Are All Right (R) (J)
  • Hilary Swank – Conviction (R) (S)
  • Anne Hathaway – Love and Other Drugs (R) (Oc)
  • Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine (R) (Oc)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
  • Christian Bale – The Fighter (O)
  • Matt Damon – True Grit (S)
  • Ed Harris – The Way Back (O)
  • Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right (O)
  • Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech (S)
  • Paul Rudd – How Do You Know? (R) (S)
  • Josh Brolin – True Grit (R) (S)
  • Christian Bale – The Fighter (O)
  • Andrew Garfield – The Social Network (N) (Oc)
  • Sam Rockwell – Conviction (J)
  • Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right (O)
  • Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech (O)
  • Derek Jacobi – The King’s Speech (R) (J)
  • Brad Pitt – The Tree of Life (R) (J)
  • David Thewlis – London Boulevard (R) (S)
  • John Malkovich – Secretariat (R) (Oc)
  • Christian Bale – The Fighter (O)
  • Andrew Garfield – The Social Network (S)
  • Ed Harris – The Way Back (O)
  • Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right (S)
  • Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech (S)
  • Josh Brolin – True Grit (R) (S)
  • Miles Teller – Rabbit Hole (R) (S)
  • Tom Wilkinson – The Debt (R) (S)
  • Christian Bale – The Fighter (O)
  • Andrew Garfield – The Social Network (J)
  • Ed Harris – The Way Back (O)
  • Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right (J)
  • Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech (N) (Oc)
  • Aaron Eckhart – The Rum Diary (R) (J)
  • Sean Penn – The Tree of Life (R) (J)
  • Patrick Wilson – Morning Glory (R) (J)
  • Justin Timberlake – The Social Network (R) (Oc)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
  • Amy Adams – The Fighter (O)
  • Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech (N) (Oc)
  • Elle Fanning – Somewhere (O)
  • Barbara Hershey – Black Swan (S)
  • Dianne Wiest – Rabbit Hole (N) (Oc)
  • Julianne Moore – The Kids Are All Right (R) (J)
  • Marion Cotillard – Inception (R) (S)
  • Saoirse Ronan – The Way Back (R) (Oc)
  • Evan Rachel Wood – The Conspirator (R) (Oc)
  • Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech (O)
  • Barbara Hershey – Black Swan (S)
  • Melissa Leo – The Fighter (N) (Oc)
  • Miranda Richardson – Made in Dagenham (N) (Oc)
  • Dianne Wiest – Rabbit Hole (N) (Oc)
  • Rosemarie DeWitt – The Company Men (R) (J)
  • Julianne Moore – The Kids Are All Right (R) (J)
  • Amy Adams – The Fighter (R) (S)
  • Kristin Scott Thomas – Nowhere Boy (R) (S)
  • Mia Wasikowska – The Kids Are All Right (R) (S)
  • Elizabeth Banks – The Next Three Days (R) (Oc)
  • Elle Fanning – Somewhere (R) (Oc)
  • Charlotte Rampling – Never Let Me Go (R) (Oc)
  • Amy Adams – The Fighter (S)
  • Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech (S)
  • Julianne Moore – The Kids Are All Right (N) (Oc)
  • Amy Ryan – Jack Goes Boating (O)
  • Dianne Wiest – Rabbit Hole (N) (Oc)
  • Hope Davis – The Special Relationship (R) (S)
  • Rebecca Hall – The Town (R) (S)
  • Elle Fanning – Somewhere (R) (Oc)
  • Bryce Dallas Howard – Hereafter (R) (Oc)
  • Amy Adams – The Fighter (O)
  • Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech (N) (Oc)
  • Miranda Richardson – Made in Dagenham (N) (Oc)
  • Hallie Steinfeld – True Grit (N) (Oc)
  • Dianne Wiest – Rabbit Hole (J)
  • Chloe Moretz – Kick-Ass (R) (J)
  • Anne Hathaway – Love and Other Drugs (R) (J)
  • Evan Rachel Wood – The Conspirator (R) (J)
  • Jessica Chastain – The Tree of Life (R) (S)
  • Marion Cotillard – Inception (R) (S)
  • Elle Fanning – Somewhere (R) (Oc)
  • Mila Kunis – Black Swan (R) (Oc)
  • Mia Wasikowska – The Kids Are All Right (R) (Oc)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
  • Another Year (S)
  • Inception (O)
  • The Kids Are All Right (S)
  • The King’s Speech (N) (Oc)
  • Somewhere (O)
  • How Do You Know? (R) (S)
  • Hereafter (R) (S)
  • The Tree of Life (R) (S)
  • Secretariat (R) (Oc)
  • Another Year (S)
  • Black Swan (N) (Oc)
  • The Fighter (J)
  • The Kids Are All Right (J)
  • The King’s Speech (J)
  • Hereafter (R) (S)
  • 127 Hours (R) (Oc)
  • Another Year (N) (Oc)
  • The Fighter (S)
  • The Kids Are All Right (S)
  • The King’s Speech (S)
  • Made in Dagenham (N) (Oc)
  • Hereafter (R) (Oc)
  • Somewhere (R) (Oc)
  • Another Year (N) (Oc)
  • The Fighter (O)
  • Inception (O)
  • The Kids Are All Right (O)
  • The King’s Speech (N) (Oc)
  • The Company Men (R) (J)
  • Ondine (R) (J)
  • Conviction (R) (S)
  • The Tree of Life (R) (S)
  • Black Swan (R) (Oc)
  • Somewhere (Somewhere)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
  • Love and Other Drugs (S)
  • The Social Network (S)
  • Toy Story 3 (O)
  • True Grit (O)
  • The Way Back (O)
  • Winter’s Bone (R) (S)
  • Fair Game (R) (S)
  • 127 Hours (J)
  • Rabbit Hole (N) (Oc)
  • The Social Network (J)
  • Toy Story 3 (J)
  • Winter’s Bone (J)
  • True Grit (R) (S)
  • Love and Other Drugs (R) (Oc)
  • Secretariat (R) (Oc)
  • The Social Network (S)
  • Toy Story 3 (S)
  • True Grit (S)
  • The Way Back (S)
  • Winter’s Bone (S)
  • 127 Hours (N) (Oc)
  • The Social Network (O)
  • The Town (N) (Oc)
  • Toy Story 3 (O)
  • True Grit (J)
  • The Ghost Writer (R) (J)
  • Kick-Ass (R) (J)
  • London Boulevard (R) (J)
  • Love and Other Drugs (R) (Oc)
  • The Way Back (R) (Oc)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
  • Despicable Me (N) (Oc)
  • How to Train Your Dragon (O)
  • The Illusionist (N) (Oc)
  • Toy Story 3 (O)
  • Tangled (O)
    • How to Train Your Dragon (N) (Oc)
    • Tangled (N) (Oc)
    • Toy Story 3 (S)
      • How to Train Your Dragon (S)
      • The Illusionist (S)
      • Toy Story 3 (S)
        • How to Train Your Dragon (O)
        • The Illusionist (O)
        • Toy Story 3 (O)

          Comments

          10 responses to “Oscar Predictions: October 2010”

          1. Adam Avatar
            Adam

            I hope Miranda Richardson takes it for Made in Dagenham

            No recognition for Jackie Weaver yet?

            Reply
            1. Tripp Burton Avatar
              Tripp Burton

              Jackie Weaver really needs some critic support to put her in the running…right now, I am not banking on that happening

              Reply
          2. Yvonne Avatar
            Yvonne

            Whoops i just saw him on Peter’s and Wesley’s list

            Reply
            1. Wesley Lovell Avatar
              Wesley Lovell

              A lot of his chances depend on the reception and push of the film. He’s got a lot of competition for the young actor slot and the Academy tends not to award too many at one time. This could be an exception and with Jake Gyllenhaal’s chances dwindling, Gosling could further reap the benefit.

              Reply
            2. Tripp Burton Avatar
              Tripp Burton

              The rating dispute is what stopped me from adding it to my predictions. If the film really is NC-17, I feel like that will greatly diminish its chances from the fairly conservative Academy. Even if it isn’t, the graphic sex scenes could stop it from too much momentum.

              Reply
          3. Yvonne Avatar
            Yvonne

            Why isn’t Ryan Gosling in the running for Best Actor(for Blue Valentine)?

            Reply
          4. Wesley Lovell Avatar
            Wesley Lovell

            Any particular ones you disagree with a great deal? We’d love to hear your thoughts.

            Reply
          5. yan Avatar
            yan

            wow i disagree with a lot of the predictions….

            Reply
          6. Wesley Lovell Avatar
            Wesley Lovell

            Turkey? I’ve seen one abjectly negative review, one mixed and one mostly positive review so far. But, that’s only 3 I’ve read to date. There may be others pushing it farther negative, but from the three I’ve seen, I wouldn’t say it’s completely out of the race and certainly not in a few of them.

            Reply
          7. Peter J Patrick Avatar
            Peter J Patrick

            It should be noted that our predictions here were made before the negative reviews of Love & Other Drugs hit the presses. I suspect mentions for that apparent turkey will be the first to go in our next revisions.

            Reply

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