Looking at Film from Every Angle

Oscar Predictions: September 2010

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Wesley Lovell

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Today, we continue with our series of prediction articles exploring where we think the races are at right now. Without exception, things seem to be shaping up in a lot of our minds as common names continue to pop into the lists. Yet, we caution everyone that anything can happen between September and December. Frontrunners can rise and fall, so while we like to think our predictions are pretty damned good, none of us want to set them down in stone quite yet.

As our series continues, we’ll be slowly adding categories to our predictions. This month, we are adding the showdown for Animated Feature. The big question is how many films will qualify and will we have a three-nominee field or five? The majority of our predictors have cautiously selected three each. But I know that if there were five positions, I would likely select their differing nomination and I’m sure they would probably adopt mine. So, right now we just need to wait for the eventual arrival of the Animated Feature finalists list, but you’ll have to wait as that list doesn’t generally arrive until the early part of November.

When we started our little series in April, only three nominees in six categories were shared on all our list (Tree of Life for Picture, Terrence Malick for Director, and Christian Bale for Supporting Actor). In July, we had five nominees in eight categories in common (Toy Story 3 in Picture, Colin Firth in Actor, Annette Bening in Actress, Bale again, and Elle Fanning in Supporting Actress). This month, we are looking at fourteen comparable selections in nine categories (in addition to the five from July, we added Inception and The Social Network to Picture, David Fincher in Director, Anne Hathaway for Actress, Ruffalo for The Kids Are All Right, The Kids Are All Right in Original Screenplay, The Social Network and Toy Story in Adapted Screenplay, and Toy Story in Animated Feature). I still find it endlessly fascinating to watch how our predictions evolve over time and I hope you do as well.

KEY:

Appears on Four Lists
Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists

Split Lead/Supporting Placement 		(R) = Removed Prediction
(N) = New Prediction
(O) = Original Prediction
(J) = July Prediction (or removed in July)
(S) = September Prediction (or removed in September)
BEST PICTURE
  • The Debt (N) (S)
  • Fair Game (O)
  • Inception (O)
  • Love and Other Drugs (O)
  • Secretariat (O)
  • The Social Network (N) (S)
  • Somewhere (J)
  • The Town (N) (S)
  • Toy Story 3 (J)
  • True Grit (O)
  • The Ghost Writer (R) (J)
  • How Do You Know? (R) (S)
  • Robin Hood (R) (J)
  • Hereafter (R) (S)
  • The Tree of Life (R) (S)
  • 127 Hours (J)
  • Black Swan (O)
  • The Fighter (O)
  • Inception (O)
  • The Kids Are All Right (J)
  • The King’s Speech (O)
  • Love and Other Drugs (O)
  • Somewhere (N) (S)
  • The Social Network (J)
  • Toy Story 3 (J)
  • Hereafter (R) (J)
  • London Boulevard (R) (J)
  • Somewhere (R) (J)
  • The Tree of Life (R) (J)
  • The Way Back (R) (J)
  • True Grit (R) (S)
  • 127 Hours (N) (S)
  • Another Year (N) (S)
  • The Fighter (N) (S)
  • Hereafter (O)
  • Inception (N) (S)
  • The King’s Speech (O)
  • Miral (O)
  • The Social Network (O)
  • Toy Story 3 (O)
  • The Way Back (O)
  • The American (R) (S)
  • Fair Game (R) (S)
  • The Town (R) (S)
  • The Tree of Life (R) (S)
  • Black Swan (N) (S)
  • The Fighter (O)
  • Inception (O)
  • The Kids Are All Right (J)
  • The King’s Speech (J)
  • Love and Other Drugs (N) (S)
  • The Social Network (O)
  • Toy Story 3 (O)
  • True Grt (N) (S)
  • The Way Back (J)
  • The Company Men (R) (J)
  • Kick-Ass (R) (J)
  • London Boulevard (R) (J)
  • Ondine (R) (J)
  • Conviction (R) (S)
  • Howl (R) (S)
  • TheTree of Life (R) (S)
BEST DIRECTOR
  • Ben Affleck – The Town (N) (S)
  • Joel Coen, Ethan Coen – True Grit (O)
  • David Fincher – The Social Network (N) (S)
  • Doug Liman – Fair Game (J)
  • Edward Zwick – Love & Other Drugs (S)
  • Roman Polanski – The Ghost Writer (R) (J)
  • James L. Brooks – How Do You Know? (R) (S)
  • Clint Eastwood – Hereafter (R) (S)
  • Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life (R) (S)
  • Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan (N) (S)
  • Danny Boyle – 127 Hours (J)
  • David Fincher – The Social Network (N) (S)
  • Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech (O)
  • David O. Russell – The Fighter (J)
  • Clint Eastwood – Hereafter (R) (J)
  • Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life (R) (J)
  • Peter Weir – The Way Back (R) (J)
  • Joel Coen, Ethan Coen – True Grit (R) (S)
  • Christopher Nolan – Inception (R) (S)
  • Danny Boyle – 127 Hours (N) (S)
  • Clint Eastwood – Hereafter (O)
  • David Fincher – The Social Network (N) (S)
  • Tim Hooper – The King’s Speech (N) (S)
  • Peter Weir – The Way Back (N) (S)
  • Ben Affleck – The Town (R) (S)
  • Anton Corbijn – The American (R) (S)
  • Doug Liman – Fair Game (R) (S)
  • Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life (R) (S)
  • Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan (N) (S)
  • David Fincher – The Social Network (O)
  • Christopher Nolan – Inception (O)
  • David O. Russell – The Fighter (O)
  • Peter Weir – The Way Back (J)
  • Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman – Howl (R) (J)
  • Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life (R) (S)
BEST ACTOR
  • Jeff Bridges – True Grit (O)
  • Colin Firth – The King’s Speech (J)
  • Ryan Gosling – Blue Valentine (N) (S)
  • Jake Gyllenhaal – Love and Other Drugs (O)
  • Mark Wahlberg – The Fighter (N) (S)
  • Jack Nicholson – How Do You Know? (R) (J)
  • Matt Damon – Hereafter (R) (S)
  • JoSh Gordon-Levitt – I’m with Cancer (R) (S)
  • Colin Firth – The King’s Speech (O)
  • James Franco – 127 Hours (O)
  • Ryan Gosling – Blue Valentine (J)
  • Jake Gyllenhaal – Love and Other Drugs (O)
  • Mark Wahlberg – The Fighter (O)
  • Colin Farrell – London Boulevard (R) (J)
  • Jeff Bridges – True Grit (N) (S)
  • Matt Damon – Hereafter (O)
  • Colin Firth – The King’s Speech (O)
  • James Franco – 127 Hours (N) (S)
  • Sean Penn – Fair Game (O)
  • George Clooney – The American (R) (S)
  • James Franco – Howl (R) (S)
  • Jeff Bridges – True Grit (N) (S)
  • Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network (J)
  • Colin Firth – The King’s Speech (J)
  • Jim Sturgess – The Way Back (J)
  • Mark Wahlberg – The Fighter (O)
  • Ben Affleck – The Company Men (R) (J)
  • Johnny Depp – The Rum Diary (R) (J)
  • Brad Pitt – The Tree of Life (R) (J)
  • James Franco – Howl (R) (S)
BEST ACTRESS
  • Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right (O)
  • Anne Hathaway – Love and Other Drugs (O)
  • Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone (J)
  • Julianne Moore – The Kids Are All Right (J)
  • Naomi Watts – Fair Game (O)
  • Reese Witherspoon – How Do You Know? (R) (J)
  • Robin Wright Penn – The Conspirator (R) (J)
  • Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right (O)
  • Anne Hathaway – Love and Other Drugs (O)
  • Diane Lane – Secretariat (N) (S)
  • Natalie Portman – Black Swan (O)
  • Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine (O)
  • Keira Knightley – London Boulevard (R) (J)
  • Naomi Watts – Fair Game (R) (J)
  • The Way Back (R) (J)
  • Lesley Manville – Another Year (R) (S)
  • Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right (O)
  • Anne Hathaway – Love and Other Drugs (N) (S)
  • Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole (O)
  • Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone (O)
  • Helen Mirren – The Tempeset (N) (S)
  • Julia Roberts – Eat, Pray, Love (R) (S)
  • Naomi Watts – Fair Game (R) (S)
  • Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right (J)
  • Anne Hathaway – Love and Other Drugs (J)
  • Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone (J)
  • Natalie Portman – Black Swan (N) (S)
  • Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine (J)
  • Angelina Jolie – Salt (R) (J)
  • Keira Knightley – London Boulevard (R) (J)
  • Rachel McAdams – Morning Glory (R) (J)
  • Helen Mirren – Brighten Rock (R) (J)
  • Mia Wasikowska – The Kids Are All Right (R) (J)
  • Hilary Swank – Conviction (R) (S)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
  • Christian Bale – The Fighter (O)
  • Matt Damon – True Grit (N) (S)
  • Ed Harris – The Way Back (O)
  • Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right (O)
  • Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech (N) (S)
  • Paul Rudd – How Do You Know? (R) (S)
  • Josh Brolin – True Grit (R) (S)
  • Christian Bale – The Fighter (O)
  • John Malkovich – Secretariat (N) (S)
  • Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right (O)
  • Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech (O)
  • Sam Rockwell – Conviction (J)
  • Derek Jacobi – The King’s Speech (R) (J)
  • Brad Pitt – The Tree of Life (R) (J)
  • David Thewlis – London Boulevard (R) (S)
  • Christian Bale – The Fighter (O)
  • Andrew Garfield – The Social Network (N) (S)
  • Ed Harris – The Way Back (O)
  • Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right (N) (S)
  • Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech (N) (S)
  • Josh Brolin – True Grit (R) (S)
  • Miles Teller – Rabbit Hole (R) (S)
  • Tom Wilkinson – The Debt (R) (S)
  • Christian Bale – The Fighter (O)
  • Andrew Garfield – The Social Network (J)
  • Ed Harris – The Way Back (O)
  • Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right (J)
  • Justin Timberlake – The Social Network (J)
  • Aaron Eckhart – The Rum Diary (R) (J)
  • Sean Penn – The Tree of Life (R) (J)
  • Patrick Wilson – Morning Glory (R) (J)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
  • Amy Adams – The Fighter (O)
  • Elle Fanning – Somewhere (O)
  • Barbara Hershey – Black Swan (N) (S)
  • Saoirse Ronan – The Way Back (J)
  • Evan Rachel Wood – The Conspirator (O)
  • Julianne Moore – The Kids Are All Right (R) (J)
  • Marion Cotillard – Inception (R) (S)
  • Elizabeth Banks – The Next Three Days (N) (O)
  • Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech (O)
  • Elle Fanning – Somewhere (O)
  • Barbara Hershey – Black Swan (N) (S)
  • Charlotte Rampling – Never Let Me Go (N) (S)
  • Rosemarie DeWitt – The Company Men (R) (J)
  • Julianne Moore – The Kids Are All Right (R) (J)
  • Amy Adams – The Fighter (R) (S)
  • Kristin Scott Thomas – Nowhere Boy (R) (S)
  • Mia Wasikowska – The Kids Are All Right (R) (S)
  • Amy Adams – The Fighter (N) (S)
  • Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech (N) (S)
  • Elle Fanning – Somewhere (O)
  • Bryce Dallas Howard – Hereafter (O)
  • Amy Ryan – Jack Goes Boating (O)
  • Hope Davis – The Special Relationship (R) (S)
  • Rebecca Hall – The Town (R) (S)
  • Amy Adams – The Fighter (O)
  • Elle Fanning – Somewhere (J)
  • Mila Kunis – Black Swan (N) (S)
  • Mia Wasikowska – The Kids Are All Right (N) (S)
  • Dianne Wiest – Rabbit Hole (J)
  • Chloe Moretz – Kick-Ass (R) (J)
  • Anne Hathaway – Love and Other Drugs (R) (J)
  • Evan Rachel Wood – The Conspirator (R) (J)
  • Jessica Chastain – The Tree of Life (R) (S)
  • Marion Cotillard – Inception (R) (S)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
  • Another Year (N) (S)
  • Inception (O)
  • The Kids Are All Right (N) (S)
  • Secretariat (N) (S)
  • Somewhere (O)
  • How Do You Know? (R) (S)
  • Hereafter (R) (S)
  • The Tree of Life (R) (S)
  • 127 Hours (J)
  • Another Year (N) (S)
  • The Fighter (J)
  • The Kids Are All Right (J)
  • The King’s Speech (J)
  • Hereafter (R) (S)
  • The Fighter (N) (S)
  • Hereafter (N) (S)
  • The Kids Are All Right (N) (S)
  • The King’s Speech (N) (S)
  • Somewhere (N) (S)
    • Black Swan (N) (S)
    • The Fighter (O)
    • Inception (O)
    • The Kids Are All Right (O)
    • Somewhere (N) (S)
    • The Company Men (R) (J)
    • Ondine (R) (J)
    • Conviction (R) (S)
    • The Tree of Life (R) (S)
    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
    • Love & Other Drugs (N) (S)
    • The Social Network (N) (S)
    • Toy Story 3 (O)
    • True Grit (O)
    • The Way Back (O)
    • Winter’s Bone (R) (S)
    • Fair Game (R) (S)
    • Love and Other Drugs (J)
    • Secretariat (N) (S)
    • The Social Network (J)
    • Toy Story 3 (J)
    • Winter’s Bone (J)
    • True Grit (R) (S)
    • The Social Network (N) (S)
    • Toy Story 3 (N) (S)
    • True Grit (N) (S)
    • The Way Back (N) (S)
    • Winter’s Bone (N) (S)
      • Love and Other Drugs (J)
      • The Social Network (O)
      • Toy Story 3 (O)
      • True Grit (J)
      • The Way Back (J)
      • The Ghost Writer (R) (J)
      • Kick-Ass (R) (J)
      • London Boulevard (R) (J)
      BEST ANIMATED FEATURE (N)
      • How to Train Your Dragon (O)
      • Toy Story 3 (O)
      • Tangled (O)
        • Toy Story 3 (N) (S)
          • How to Train Your Dragon (N) (S)
          • The Illusionist (N) (S)
          • Toy Story 3 (N) (S)
            • How to Train Your Dragon (O)
            • The Illusionist (O)
            • Toy Story 3 (O)

              Wesley Lovell

              My Full Predictions

              Peter J. Patrick

              Best Picture
              Outside chances: Blue Valentine, True Grit and Secretariat.
              Four potential nominees, Brighton Rock, The Conspirator, London Boulevard and The Way Back are still seeking U.S. distribution and although The Tree of Life does not seem likely to be given an Oscar qualifying run, it, too, could upset the applecart at the last moment.

              Best Director
              Outside chances: Christopher Nolan for Inception, Sophia Coppola for Somwhere and the Coen Brothers for True Grit.
              Also possible: Terrence Malick for The Tree of Life if given an Oscar qualifying run and Robert Redford for The Conspirator and Peter Weir for The Way Back if their films find distribution in time.

              Best Actor
              Outside chances: Jeff Bridges in True Grit, Stephen Dorff in Somewhere and Javier Bardem in Biutiful. Also possible: Colin Farrell in London Boulevard and Jim Sturgess in The Way Back if those films find U.S. distribution.

              Best Actress
              Outside chances: Lesley Manville in Another Year, Jennifer Lawrence in Winter’s Bone and Julianne Moore in The Kids Are Alright. Also possible: Robin Wright in The Conspirator if the film finds distribution in time.

              Best Supporting Actor
              Outside chance: Jeremy Renner in The Town. Also possible: David Thewlis in London Boulevard if it finds U.S. distribution.

              Best Supporting Actress
              Outside chances: Anne-Marie Duff and Kristin Scott Thomas for Nowhere Boy and Amy Adams for The Fighter. Also possible: Alexis Belded in The Conspirator if the film receives distribution in time.

              Best Original Screenplay
              Outside chances: Black Swan and Hereafter. Also possible: The Tree of Life if given an Oscar qualifying run.

              Best Adapted Screenplay
              Outside chance: True Grit. Also possible: The Conspirator if it finds distribution.

              Best Animated Feature
              Toy Story 3 will be nominated and win. Other than that, I don’t have a clue.

              Wes Huizar

              No update to remaining selections at this time.

              Comments

              12 responses to “Oscar Predictions: September 2010”

              1. rafael Avatar
                rafael

                I think that annette bening and julianne moore are excellent in the kids are right.

                Reply
              2. Martha Avatar
                Martha

                Hi guys. Wow, NO Jeremy Renner for Best Supporting Actor in The Town??? He’s gotten consistently high praise in every single review I’ve seen or heard, and he was brilliant in the role. What an amazing follow up to his equally brilliant work in The Hurt Locker. I’m surprised that his name isn’t on any of your lists. Just curious if that status may change in a month or two when more films have opened and the playing field becomes a bit more even.

                Reply
                1. Wesley Lovell Avatar
                  Wesley Lovell

                  From what I’ve been hearing his role isn’t quite the type the Academy usually notices, so it would take severe push by critics to get him there, but I’m not sure that’s going to happen. But that’s right now. We’ll see how things look in the next couple of months.

                  Reply
              3. Tripp Burton Avatar
                Tripp Burton

                I agree–the combination of Ryan Reynolds and horror movie is going to keep the Academy far away from the movie

                Reply
              4. Wesley Lovell Avatar
                Wesley Lovell

                I think voters will confuse Buried with a horror film and skip it. Even with positive critical response. I mean it would be rather interesting, but I can’t see it right now.

                Reply
              5. Wes Huizar Avatar
                Wes Huizar

                One name that we might all be overlooking at the moment is Ryan Reynolds for Best Actor in “Buried,” which is getting excellent reviews.

                Reply
              6. Wesley Lovell Avatar
                Wesley Lovell

                Also, I just noticed that my Hopefuls page link is not going to the updated page. I should be able to post the correct one within the next hour or two.

                Reply
              7. Wesley Lovell Avatar
                Wesley Lovell

                This could also be another Gran Torino. A film which was expected to garner a couple of top-of-the-line nominations, but failed utterly.

                Then again, it could be like A Serious Man, a film which got strong critical support, but was a box office misfire, but because of the makers of the film, managed to eke out two nominations. A lot depends on how well the film plays with audiences. Even The Blind Side didn’t need good critics notices to land in the Best Picture race and earn a nomination for Sandra Bullock.

                Reply
              8. Tripp Burton Avatar
                Tripp Burton

                Bryce Dallas Howard is the one who has been escaping Hereafter unscathed, and she could be a strong contender: she is a sexy young actress, has respected performances behind her, what looks like a meaty role and has the Oscar winning pedigree

                Reply
              9. Wesley Lovell Avatar
                Wesley Lovell

                I think Hereafter could be a contender for Matt Damon. Seeing the trailer, it looks like the kind of performance the Academy loves to recognize, especially from an actor they haven’t given enough credit to in the past. The film itself may not play well, but then again, it’s has some sentimentality that may push it the Seabiscuit route and appeal to older voters.

                Reply
              10. Tripp Burton Avatar
                Tripp Burton

                On the path of changing, I am ready to discount the haul for Hereafter (which is not getting good buzz), and jump even more on the bandwagon of Rabbit Hole. I have been claiming Kidman the frontrunner all year, but the reviews are so strong we could see a Best Picture campaign mounted strongly.

                Reply
              11. Peter J Patrick Avatar
                Peter J Patrick

                It’s getting to be that time of year where our predictions can change dramatically overnight. Case in point: no sooner did I remove Amy Adams from my predictions than I saw the trailer for The Fighter. Now I think I was right in the first place.

                Having just seen Vanessa Redgrave in Letters to Juliet, I’ve come to the conclusion hers is the kind of late career performance that critics tend to overlook, but actors notice and reward with affection. Think Ingrid Bergman in Murder on the Orient Express.

                If I were submitting picks today instead of a couple of days ago I would include Adams and Redgrave instead of Elizabeth Banks and Charlotte Rampling in my Supporting Actress predictions.

                Reply

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