We had two films release this past weekend with the potential for Oscar nominations.

Rogue One

One of the most storied franchises in history is also a fairly storied Oscar player. From the 1977 original to the 2015 rebirth, every Star Wars film has been nominated for or has won an Oscar. So, going into the 2016 Oscars with the first non-episode chapter in the saga, we ask the question of not whether it will get nominated, but where.

Although the George Lucas prequel trilogy from 1999 through 2005 earned nominations, it earned few. The Force Awakens last year, however, earned five, the most the series had received since the original. Rogue One has slightly weaker prospects, but should compete in many of the same categories. Best Original Score, Film Editing, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, and Visual Effects are where Force Awakens appeared. One of those categories, Film Editing, is exceedingly unlikely to be repeated. The others are fair game, as are Best Production Design and Best Makeup and Hairstyling.

Ultimately, I suspect the film will earn nominations in the two sound categories and visual effects and that is likely it. I could see a case made for Original Score, but that prospect is much more iffy.

Fences

August Wilson’s play about an African-American father trying to raise his son while race relations in the United States in the 1950s are far from pleasant. Winner of the 1987 Tony Award for Best Play, Denzel Washington takes the helm and the lead role in a big screen adaptation.

Co-starring Viola Davis, the Pulitzer Prize-winning play is a seminal piece of dramatic fiction from the 1980s. As a film, though, it must compete against more cinematic features, ones that were initially written with the big screen in mind.

For the Oscars, the producers are hoping to nab several high profile awards. Best Picture seems a solid, but waning possibility while nominations for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress are all but guaranteed. A Best Adapted Screenplay nomination is also assured, but from there the options are a bit murky.

At first, it seemed like Washington would make it into the Best Director race, but he’s been frustrated at every turn by critics and other awards giving bodies that haven’t recognized him in that space. Best Production Design and Best Costume Design are also outside possibilities, but beyond that I don’t see many paths towards more than half a dozen nominations, with an end result that’s likely to be far less.