We had two films release this past weekend with the potential for Oscar nominations.

Emancipation

Antoine Fuqua is one of a handful Black directors who’ve made names for themselves in cinema. His filmography is filled with solid box office performers, several of them starring Denzel Washington. As such, he’s earned his reputation as a bankable filmmaker, but has he managed to endear himself enough to Oscar voters to transcend from popular to Oscar-nominated? After spending the nineties as a music video director, his first two big screen efforts didn’t really do much for his career; however, his third certainly did. Training Day starred Denzel Washington and Ethawn Hawke and marked a major turning point for him. The film earned two Oscar nominations for its stars and earned Washington first Oscar in a leading role and his second overall. It was a historic moment for the Academy, marking the first Black winner in that category in nearly four decades.

Yet, his reputation didn’t take an overnight turn. His next five feature films weren’t very successful and it took 12 years for him to finally have a hit, Olympus Has Fallen. From there, he followed up with The Equalizer, Southpaw, and The Magnificent Seven, the middle of which wasn’t a box office phenom, but received solid reviews. Since the sequel to The Equalizer in 2018, he’s yet again fallen into a fallow period and he certainly hopes for Emancipation to top that.

It’s a slave saga starring Will Smith. Yes, the guy who destroyed his reputation by slapping Chris Rock at the Oscars last year. He’s banned from attending the Oscars for a decade, resigned his membership, and has taken a hit in popularity. Why then would Apple TV+ decide now was the time to try and resuscitate his career? Purportedly it was because they thought they had a winner. Early reviews, on the contrary, have suggested otherwise and there are sure to be countless articles about whether Smith has done enough to be welcomed back with open arms (in my opinion, he hasn’t).

After their win last year with CODA, they believe they’ve found a winning formula, but they are sounding more like late-90s Harvey Weinstein than the early-90s version, which means a push for mediocre projects to rise to the status of Best Picture nominee. Without the slap, Smith would certainly have been nominated and could have been on track for a second Oscar. These are not those times and he will be one of the weak links for the film that could ultimately sink its chances even if late-breaking reviews are overwhelmingly positive.

The Eternal Daughter

Director Joanna Hogg has had an almost opposite journey as a filmmaker than the previous entry, Fuqua. She too spent time on a smaller medium, but was a television movie and series director. She’s never had a box office success, but she’s quietly built a reputation among filmmakers and critics with a solid string of directorial efforts. Exhibition, Archipeligo, and Unrelated were all well received, but her fourth feature film, The Souvenir, was heavily lauded (92 score at Metacritic says it all). Strangely enough, she also has a connection to Fuqua as she turned one of her early successes into a sequel, The Souvenir: Part II, which was just as successful as the prior film (90 score at Metacritic).

Through all of her acclaim, she hasn’t made much of an impact with Oscar voters. That’s sadly true of a lot of acclaimed filmmakers and their movies. Hogg’s latest film, The Eternal Daughter stars Oscar winner Tilda Swinton in dual roles as an artist and her mother confronting a house haunted by their past secrets. Early reviews have said that Swinton is tremendous in it and even if the film doesn’t get on the Academy’s radar in most categories, Swinton’s status as a previous Oscar winner gives her a leg up. That said, the Best Actress slate is incredibly stuffed right now and while I suspect she’d only be eligible for one nominations in spite of two roles, lead is a better bet than supporting. If she is campaigned in support (which would be a strange campaign indeed), she could break into a relatively weak category. Otherwise, it’s more likely that the film is going to be ignored by the Academy.