We had one film release this past weekend with the potential for Oscar nominations.

La La Land

Twenty years ago, the musical was reborn at the Oscars with five nominations presented to Evita. It was an inauspicious start, but within the next two decades, many would try to win accolades and few would succeed. In that time, Moulin Rouge earned eight nominations in 2001, the last time a musical not based on a West End/Broadway production scored at the Oscars; Chicago became the first musical to win Best Picture in more than 30 years in 2002 along with its staggering thirteen Oscar nominations. After that, it would be four years before Dreamgirls would secure eight nominations. After that, the drought lasted six years when Les Misérables became the last musical to compete at the Oscars with its eight citations.

It is now four years later and we have our first musical with Best Picture aspirations in all that time. An entirely original production, with songs written directly for the screen, it marks the first non-animated original musical in more than 40 years (the last was Nashville in 1975) to become a major Oscar contender. The story of a struggling actress trying to make it big in Hollywood and the jazz pianist that falls in love with her, and she with him, is the kind of Hollywood romance the Academy has always loved.

The critics have been laudatory and the film has earned numerous precursor nominations. It currently sits in the enviable position of frontrunner for the Best Picture nomination. If it manages to hit double-digit nominations, which is possible, it could be a done deal. It’s best chances are in: Best Picture, Director, Actress (Emma Stone), Original Screenplay, Original Score, Original Song (x2), Film Editing, and Sound Mixing. That’s 8 to 9 nominations the film is almost guaranteed to pick up. Add to that list its strong potential in Best Actor (Ryan Gosling), Cinematography, and Production Design and you have a film that could hit 12 nominations fairly easily. If the Academy resurrects the Original Song Score category (as is its right with the likes of La La Land and Moana in release), it could hit the magical 13 nominations. A supporting citation or two and it could be the most nominated film in history. Ultimately, I think it will end up with around 11 nominations, but I could be persuaded to give it a chance at 12.