With three contributors on this site, we’ve decided to try something new. Peter, Tripp and I have found that while we all love the Academy Awards, we each have differing opinions on how it will eventually go. So, we’ve compared our post-SAG predictions for several categories and have several common selections, but we’ll giv eyou reasons why we think our individual differences are going to be the final nominees. So, let’s get started.

Best Picture

Shared Predictions

Avatar
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Nine
Precious
Up
Up in the Air

Where We Disagree

The Messenger (Peter: I have a strong feeling about The Messenger based on the fact that’s it’s been doing better than expected with the precursors. The film hasn’t been widely seen but it’s apparently making a strong impression with those who have seen it. The screener DVD was the first one sent to Academy members this year and was likely screened by a large number of the voters making it much more of a threat than most people think. It’s my dark horse pick. The other two odd films out, A Serious Man and Single Man seem to be considered masterpieces in some circles and overpraised niche favorites in otehrs. Who knows, though, we could see all three nominated while three others that we agree on fail to make the cut.)
A Serious Man (Wesley: I am no fan of the Coen Brothers. I don’t like or love most of their films (including Best Picture nominee Fargo and a good portion of No Country for Old Men), but for some reason the Academy showed they liked them by giving them an award for No Country for Old Men. With A Serious Man doing better than I ever expected, especially for what seems to be a marginal Coen effort, has managed to pick up plenty of mention and, with the new ten-picture format, there is room for niche directors to find love with a small sector of the Academy and make their way to a nomination.)
A Single Man (Tripp: Call it a hunch, but I think that in the next few weeks A Single Man will be the film that will garner enough momentum to take the tenth slot. People who like it really seem to love it, it seems less marginalizing than the Coen Brothers film, and the box office is so putrid for The Messenger that I don’t think any number of screeners can help.)

Best Animated Feature

Shared Predictions

Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up

Where We Disagree

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs (Tripp: This category likes box office success, and the reviews of Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs were just good enough to guarantee it a slot. & Wesley: This is a category I seem to have grown overly familiar with in recent years. I’ve seen films I expected to earn a nomination go down in defeat to populist kiddie features that are more friendly to animators. And the Annie Awards are a terrific barometer for the potential notice of the Academy’s animators. Surf’s Up earned a surprising 8 nominations from the Annie Awards when The Simpsons Movie earned only 4. And guess which film got nominated. That’s why Coraline, with 10 nominations, the most this year, is very likely to be considered. But, that’s an unusual film and I think they will have to counterbalance with something that critics didn’t love, but audiences did (and that isn’t Pixar), and that is Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs.)
Coraline (Peter: Beyond Up and Fantastic Mr. Fox anything is possible. I liked Coraline, haven’t seen either Ponyo or Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs just going on a hunch that the former is better than the latter and will therefore generate more votes. & Wesley: Why do I think Ponyo will be ignored? Mostly because the Annie Awards ignored it. They recognized director Hayao Miyazaki and the score, but for a legendary animator, his film sure ended up with few nominations. On top of that, it got the weakest critical reception of recent Miyazaki efforts and with such a wide variety of available animated films, even his legendary status won’t help him this year, I believe.)
Ponyo (Tripp: The fifth slot is between Coraline and Ponyo, and I think the master Miyazaki (who has been here twice before, winning once) will overtake the possibly forgotten Coraline (and if people didn’t catch it in the theatre, will the DVD do justice to the 3D effects?) & Peter: See above.)

Best Director

Shared Predictions

Clint Eastwood – Invictus
James Cameron – Avatar
Jason Reitman – Up in the Air
Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino – Inglourious Basterds

Unanimous: It’s not very common that people can agree on such early predictions, but here we are.

Best Actor

Shared Predictions

Colin Firth – A Single Man
George Clooney – Up in the Air
Jeff Bridges – Carzy Heart
Morgan Freeman – Invictus

Where We Disagree

Jeremy Renner – The Hurt Locker (Peter: I think Jeremy Renner will be pulled along with The Hurt Locker which has been cleaning up at the precursors. Daniel Day-Lewis seems to have as many detractors as he has supporters. He’s already won two Oscars, which doesn’t help in a year of strong competition. & Wesley: The Academy does like Daniel Day-Lewis, but I wouldn’t say they love him. Yes, he’s won two Oscars, but he was never nominated for his acclaimed performance in The Boxer, which earned him more attention than Nine so far. And this is an actor’s actor, a method actor, which highly appeals to his fellow thespians, but even SAG didn’t nominate him this year, which suggests his performance isn’t transcending the film as one might imagine. Plus, he’s been honored by the Academy, they don’t always throw accolades at people who’ve already been so fortunate. Jeremy Renner did get nominated by SAG, which was a big surprise and may very well suggest that they have seen the film and want to recognize it. I think with The Hurt Locker picking up steam through the awards season, Renner should be considered a likely candidate for that slot.)
Daniel Day-Lewis – Nine (Tripp: The Academy loves Daniel Day-Lewis, and even though the reviews coming in are horrendous, at this point I think he has enough traction as the “greatest living actor” to make it in for his big musical debut. Mostly, I don’t see a viable fifth candidate, and am not buying the Jeremy Renner thing. Lead categories are hard for someone to wide a rave into a nomination for (it happens more in the supporting categories), and I don’t think the attention for the film is focused on him enough.)

Best Actress

Shared Predictions

Carey Mulligan – An Education
Helen Mirren – The Last Station
Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia
Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side

Where We Disagree

Gabourey Sidibe – Precious (Peter: Personally I think Tidla Swinton gave the year’s best performance by an actress this year in the little seen Julia, but because the film debuted on pay-per-view the same day as its U.S. theatrical debut, it’s deemed ineligible. Gabourey Sidibe, who is the best thing about Precious IMO, has made a strong showing with the precursors and is the most likely candidate to benefit from Swinton’s ineligibility. I adore Emily Blunt and stories of Queen Victoria fascinate me no end, but to me Rupert Friend as her consort, Prince Albert, outshines her. & Wesley: SAG nominated her and for all intents and purposes, her film is getting the full on Oscar push. And with the recent activity in this category, she seems like the kind of actress the Academy loves to recognize. After all, Precious is her film and that SAG would even remember her suggests that there’s more love for this SAG nominated Keisha Castle-Hughes and she managed to emerge in the Best Picture race.)
Emily Blunt – The Young Victoria (Tripp: Emily Blunt is a hot young actress who has almost made it in before, and I think she will barely coast into the fifth slot here, but wouldn’t not be overly shocked to see her missing.)

Best Supporting Actor

Shared Predictions

Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds
Christopher Plummer – The Last Station
Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones
Woody Harrelson – The Messenger

Where We Disagree

Matt Damon – Invictus (Peter: Matt Damon is a double threat this year. He could be nominated for Best Actor for The Informant! but probably won’t make the cut. I think his supporters, of whom there are many, will want to give the consolation prize of a nomination in support for Invictus. Molina is a threat and may well be nominated either instead of Damon or for that matter, any of the other candidates except Christoph Waltz. & Wesley: Whether or not anyone likes Invictus, Matt Damon has two strong performances this year and the Academy may be ready to recognize him for his work. He hasn’t been nominated for acting since Good Will Hunting, I can see a large swell of support for him to get a nomination and, I think if he does, we could very well see him win it this year. After all, a lead-in-support kind of performance gives him an advantage. And, I would love to see Alfred Molina nominated. I like him as an actor, but if SAG, who regularly recognizes journeymen actors, and other organizations can’t recognize his performance, it’s not nearly as strong a contender as we once thought.)
Alfred Molina – An Education (Tripp: If An Education can really get into the Best Picture race (as we all have predicted), it will do so on the adoration for its actors and writing. Molina is a journeyman, and does anyone really like Invictus?)

Best Supporting Actress

Shared Predictions

Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air
Julianne Moore – A Single Man
Mo’Nique – Precious
Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air

Where We Disagree

Penelope Cruz – Nine (Tripp: Penelope Cruz is probably slipping, but it is the showiest role in the show, she is coming off a strong win last year, and I think her sexy number will be too much to resist. Plus, as pointed out earlier, The Messenger is a major stretch for anything other than Woody Harrelson, and who else is there? & Wesley: I think Penelope Cruz is loved in the Academy. She’s earned two nominations in recent years and even has an Oscar. The SAG’s recognized her alone from the Nine cast, which means they like her (even if Marion Cotillard is gaining stronger notices), and I think Samantha Morton desperately needed SAG recognition to carry forward her momentum.)
Samantha Morton – The Messenger (Peter: Morton is overdue. Cruz won just last year and indications are that doesn’t do anything remarkable beyond her seductive dance routine in Nine.)

Best Original Screenplay

Shared Predictions

(500) Days of Summer
A Serious Man
Inglourious Basterds
The Hurt Locker

Where We Disagree

Up (Tripp: Pixar does too well in this category for the lovely (and Best Picture nominated?) Up not to carry over here. & Wesley: Pixar has been nominated far too many times in this category not to be considered a safe bet for inclusion. And while The Messenger is a wonderful movie, it’s not really a screenwriter’s kind of movie. It’s a performance film that is carried mostly by its cast and with such a traditional ending, instead of something truly astounding, perhaps the writers will want to recognize something a bit more satisfying.)
The Messenger (Peter: I don’t have a strong feeling about this one. Up is certainly popular enough to be included in here. I’m just playing my hunch with The Messenger a little further.)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Shared Predictions

An Education
Precious
Up in the Air

Where We Disagree

A Single Man (Peter: A toss of the coin, really, I think Fantastic Mr. Fox and Where the Wild Things Are are as likely as Julie & Julia and A Single Man. I’m not feeling the love for Invictus beyond Best Picture, Director, Actor and Supporting Actor. & Tripp: Like Best Picture, I think A Single Man is the film that will gain a lot of traction once it gets out there to be seen, and this is a strong category for it to move into.)
Fantastic Mr. Fox (Tripp: Fantastic Mr. Fox has been taking alot of the precursors already, and Wes Andersen has been nominated for writing before.)
Invictus (Wesley: I’m softening on my inclusion of Invictus and will very likely change that out soon)
Julie & Julia (Peter: See above.)
Where the Wild Things Are (Wesley: I think Where the Wild Things Are seems to be coming back from the dead. The film started off as a big contender, but after weaker-than-expected box office and critical notices, most of us wrote the film off. However, the film keeps popping up at the precursors and this, I think is one of the few categories I think it could get recognized. It’s certainly an original take on such a short story and it very much inhabits and strengthens the children’s story, which may give it an edge with the Academy’s writers who really appreciate things like that.)