UPDATED (Wes’ CAS predictions posted): Tomorrow, both the British Academy of Film & Television Arts and the Cinema Audio Society will announce their nominations. Below are our predictions about who will be nominated. We’ll start off with the smaller group, the Cinema Audio Society, which awards a trophy for Best Sound, equivalent to the Academy’s Sound Mixing award.

Cinema Audio Society

Complete Agreement

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek

Agreements in 3

District 9 (Wesley, Peter, Wes)

Agreements in 2

Inglourious Basterds (Tripp, Wes)
Up (Peter, Tripp)

Individual Predictions

Public Enemies (Wesley)

British Academy of Film & Television Arts

Picture

Unanimous Agreement

Avatar
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Up in the Air

Animated Film

Unanimous Agreement

Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Up

Director

Unanimous Agreement

Kathryn Bigelow
James Cameron
Lone Scherfig

Agreements in 2

Jason Reitman (Wesley & Peter)
Neill Blomkamp (Wesley & Tripp)
Quentin Tarantino (Peter & Tripp)

Individual Predictions

Actor

Unanimous Agreement

Jeff Bridges
George Clooney
Colin Firth

Agreements in 2

Morgan Freeman (Peter & Tripp)
Jeremy Renner (Wesley & Peter)

Individual Predictions

Peter Capaldi (Tripp)
Peter Sarsgaard (Wesley)

Actress

Unanimous Agreement

Abbie Cornish
Carey Mulligan
Gabourey Sidibe
Meryl Streep

Individual Predictions

Emily Blunt (Wesley)
Helen Mirren (Tripp)
Saoirse Ronan (Peter)

Supporting Actor

Unanimous Agreement

Christian McKay
Alfred Molina
Christopher Plummer
Stanley Tucci
Christoph Waltz

Supporting Actress

Unanimous Agreement

Vera Farmiga
Anna Kendrick
Julianne Moore
Mo’Nique
Rosamund Pike

Original Screenplay

Unanimous Agreement

The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up

Agreements in 2

Moon (Peter & Tripp)

Individual Predictions

Bright Star (Wesley)

Adapted Screenplay

Unanimous Agreement

District 9
An Education
In the Loop
Up in the Air

Agreements in 2

Precious (Wesley & Peter)

Individual Predictions

Let the Right One In (Tripp)

Music

Unanimous Agreement

Avatar
Crazy Heart
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Up

Individual Predictions

Coraline (Tripp)
An Education (Wesley)
Moon (Peter)

Editing

Unanimous Agreement

Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds

Agreements in 2

Up in the Air (Wesley & Peter)

Individual Predictions

The Road (Tripp)

Cinematography

Unanimous Agreement

The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds

Agreements in 2

Avatar (Peter & Tripp)
Bright Star (Wesley & Tripp)
A Serious Man (Wesley & Tripp)

Individual Predictions

District 9 (Peter)
The Road (Wesley)
Star Trek (Peter)

Art Direction

Unanimous Agreement

Bright Star
District 9

Agreements in 2

Avatar (Wesley & Tripp)
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (Wesley & Tripp)
Inglourious Basterds (Wesley & Peter)

Individual Predictions

A Single Man (Tripp)
An Education (Peter)
Sherlock Holmes (Peter)

Costume Design

Unanimous Agreement

Bright Star
An Education
A Single Man
The Young Victoria

Agreements in 2

Coco Before Chanel (Peter & Tripp)

Individual Predictions

Inglourious Basterds (Wesley)

Makeup

Unanimous Agreement

An Education
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
The Young Victoria

Agreements in 2

District 9 (Wesley & Peter)

Individual Predictions

Bright Star (Peter)
Coco Before Chanel (Tripp)
Inglourious Basterds (Tripp)
The Road (Wesley)

Sound

Unanimous Agreement

Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek

Agreements in 2

Inglourious Basterds (Wesley & Tripp)

Individual Predictions

Up (Peter)

Visual Effects

Unanimous Agreement

Avatar
District 9
Star Trek
2012

Agreements in 2

Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (Wesley & Peter)

Individual Predictions

The Hurt Locker (Tripp)

Assorted BAFTA Commentary

Picture Peter – I’m pretty sure of four of the five. The fifth, An Education, is a hunch based on its “Englishness”, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Up or Precious here instead.; Wesley – Here, I think Inglourious Basterds suffers. The remaining films seem fairly solid, but Inglourious Basterds, despite being fairly international, isn’t very “British” and could easily be replaced.
Animated Film Peter – I see no reason to doubt the top three vote-getters here.; Wesley – With only three nominees, the likelihood of this group picking any other than this suggests one of these three isn’t a very strong contender to begin with and that doesn’t seem to be the case.
Director Peter – Inglourious Basterds and Up in the Air were not among the five top vote-getters on the list list but momentum is on their side although I would not be surprised to see District 9, which was one of the top five vote-getters, in place of any of these except The Hurt Locker. I think A Prophet, which was also one of the top five vote-getters, has pretty much lost its momentum and will not be in the running.; Wesley – Whether Britain’s ties and sympathies for South Africa are strong or not will be evinced by how well they support Neill Blomkamp. Reitman is definitely stronger and if they do like Inglourious Basterds, then Tarantino could still muscle his way in, but at Blomkamp or Reitman’s expense, not Lone Scherfig whose film topped the long list numbers.
Actor Peter – Andy Serkis was one of the top five vote-getters on the long list for Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll, but Jeff Bridges has the momentum to displace either him or Morgan Freeman. I’m betting Serkis will be the one to go. Wesley – I don’t know if I’m the only one, but I scratched my head a lot whn I saw Serkis as one of the top vote-getters in early balloting. My guess is this was a small group of individuals who will be muscled out when the final results are revealed and Oscar frontrunner Jeff Bridges enters the mix.
Actress Peter – The top five vote-getters from the long list. Ronan is vulnerable but no one else has come along to displace her so I’m leaving her in there. Wesley – With Sandra Bullock not on the long list, I’m guessing the actress playing a young Queen Victoria will earn a spot on the list next to fellow Britisher Carey Mulligan and Aussie Cornish next to the Oscar heavyweight Meryl Streep and ingenue Gabourey Sidibe.
Supporting Actor Peter – Once again the top five vote-getters from the original list with no reason to think otherwise. Wesley – With so many mentions for An Education, it’s obvious this group loves the film, so Alfred Molina will earn his first major mention of the season alongside the others.
Supporting Actress Peter – The Up in the Air girls replace the Nowhere Boy girls (Anne-Marie Duff and Kristin Scott Thomas) who were among the top five vote-getters on the long list. I’m leaving Rosamund Pike in there because you can’t take out too many Britishers although I wouldn’t be surprised to see Diane Kruger (Inglourious Basterds) replace either her or Julianne Moore. Wesley – Despite being an international success, I expect Penelope Cruz to fall victim to the An Education juggernaut, losing her spot to Rosamund Pike. But Julianne Moore could just as easily find herself replaced.
Original Screenplay Peter – I’m going with the top five vote-getters from the long list on this one. These were all exceptionally well written scripts. Wesley – Bright Star seems just like the literate work this group would go crazy for even if it is a flawed film.
Adapted Screenplay Peter – These are the five of the six top top vote-getters from the long list. I eliminated the sixth, Let the Right One In, because it’s kind of old news by now. Wesley – Precious is an Oscar contender, but it may be too distinctly American for their tastes resulting in, hopefully, a nomination for last year’s horror masterpiece Let the Right One In.
Music Peter – There were six top vote-getters in this category due to a tie. I’m guessing Coraline will be the one to drop out. Wesley – An Education should do well with this group and I expect it to pick up a nod here.
Editing Peter – Another category where I’m going with the top five vote-getters because they seem right. Wesley – Up in the Air has receive plenty of consideration from this group and I can see it carrying its Best Picture nomination to a nod here.
Cinematography Peter – I’m going with District 9 and Star Trek over top five vote-getters Bright Star and A Serious Man mainly to break the monotony. Wesley – This group seems to be more discerning, thus I believe that Avatar will be roundly ignored, consisting mostly of visual effects camerawork. The Road has a noted cinematographer and its gritty realism should be a nice change of pace to the mostly glossy remaining nominees.
Art Direction Peter – An Education and Inglourious Basterds over top five vote-getters Harry Potter and Doctor Parnassus. Just a hunch. Wesley – Avatar is an Art Directors heaven and should earn a spot here alongside the creativity of Imaginarium and the period nature of Inglourious.
Costume Design Peter – Yet again the top five vote-getters feel right. Wesley – I want to say Coco Before Chanel gets the nomination, simply because it’s about a fashion icon, but they already have a fashion icon’s film earning consideration with A Single Man, so my guess is the World War II period dress of Inglouriousgets the nod.
Makeup Peter – I’m not sure how much hair counts in this category, but most of the top five vote-getters have an emphaisis on hair over make-up. I’m replacing Coco Before Chanel with District 9 from that group. Wesley – District 9 has been proving a stronger contender than we previously expected and I think it will pick up a nod alongside its fellow in gritty The Road.
Sound Peter – Again I’m going with the top five vote-getters, but Inglourious Basterds could easily replace Up. Wesley – Inglourious has plenty of aural stimuli to keep these voters enthused.
Visual Effects Peter – I’m going with the top five vote-getters on this one because they feel right although I would personally like to see The Hurt Locker replace any one of them. Wesley – Harry Potter is a distinctly British production and I can see them recognizing it simply for retaining that feeling.