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(UPDATED: 1/22/10, 4:16p CST) This is a fairly big weekend for Oscar prognosticators. Not only do the nominations polls for the Academy Awards close on Saturday, but the Costume Designers Guild announces its nominations and the Screen Actors Guild Awards are presented live on TNT (I will be posting live updates tomorrow night as well). Then, on Sunday, we have the Producers Guild of America announcing its winners, which we may not get until late Sunday evening or Monday morning.

But, you’ll have a break until the latter half of next week to catch your breath before the next round of events occur including the Oscar nominations on February 2.

Here are our predictions for the three precursors handing out this weekend.

Screen Actors Guild Awards

Best Ensemble

Inglourious Basterds (Wesley, Peter, Wes)
Precious (Tripp)

Wesley – It has the largest cast. It has the most ensemble-friendly director. The actors have a hell of a lot of fun. SAG voters almost always pick the largest cast, so it should end up taking this prize if nothing else.
Peter – It’s the largest, most diverse cast working in tandem, a true ensemble performance.
Tripp – Without Up in the Air or Avatar standing in it’s way here, many think this is The Hurt Locker’s big momentum pusher. Sometimes, though, SAG likes to give this award to a non-contender, and I think this year they will do that. The Hurt Locker isn’t seen as an acting piece as much as a directorial triumph, and Precious has some of the most talked about performances of the year. I think Precious will be the big upset of the evening.
Wes – It has a large, international cast and, other than Nine (which has no shot at all), is the only true ensemble film of the bunch.

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges (Wesley, Peter, Wes)
George Clooney (Tripp)

Wesley – Clooney is Hollywood royalty and everyone knows him, but so is Jeff Bridges and although Bridges’ charity work is minimal in comparison, he is one of the most recognized and respected actors in need of career recognition we’ve seen in some time. And with two strong performances this year, he should very well win, but if he doesn’t, there’s always the remake of True Grit next year…
Peter – It’s a close race between Bridges and Clooney. Clooney is in the better film but Bridges, who began his career on his father’s TV show in 1958 is a heavy sentimental favorite.
Tripp – I think the Clooney and Bridges race is a lot closer than many think, and this is going to be Clooney’s big push in the race. With ballots not due until today, everyone in the business has heard about Clooney’s Haiti telethon, more have seen his film (remember Johnny Depp won this award for Pirates of the Caribbean over Sean Penn) and everyone in Hollywood loves him.

Best Actress

Sandra Bullock (Unanimous)

Wesley – Streep won last year, but don’t underestimate SAG voters for recognizing the same performer twice. Bullock, however, is a box office sensation and there are plenty of actors who want to be her or want to be with her and since SAG tends to be a popularity contest, she may very well win this trophy.
Peter – It’s between Bullock and Streep, but Streep has already won several SAG awards including one just last year. I think they’ll want to spread the wealth.
Tripp – Another race that I think is a lot closer than others make it seem. Streep won this award last year, so I don’t think they will award her back to back. Instead, they will honor the biggest box office draw in Hollywood.
Wes – Meryl has won 2 SAG awards in the past 10 years (albeit one was for television), the most recent being last year. Losing this award won’t hurt her chances for Oscar #3 and Sandra Bullock probably won’t ever get another shot at this award.

Best Supporting Actor

Christoph Waltz (Unanimous)

Wesley – Who would have thought this Summer when Basterds opened that it would have become such the force it has. Waltz wasn’t on my radar even after seeing the film, but has snowballed into one of the most likely victors.
Peter – He’s having an incredible run, no reason to expect SAG to break the spell.
Tripp – Waltz will continue his triumphant charge to a major sweep of awards.

Best Supporting Actress

Mo’Nique (Unanimous)

Wesley – There isn’t a person who knows about movies who isn’t talking about her performance. Even those who aren’t fans of her comedy act love this performance. She is royalty and will be rewarded.
Peter – The closest thing to a sure bet this year.
Tripp – She has given one of the most talked about performances of the year, which many are calling the breakthrough performance of the year. I don’t see her losing a single award from here on out.

Best Stunt Cast

Star Trek (Unanimous)

Wesley – This movie is more stunt heavy than its competition and the one that employs the most tends to triumph.
Peter – Presumably employs more stunt people than the competition.

TV Drama Ensemble

Mad Men (Unanimous)
Wesley – It’s one of the strongest ensembles on television and even though it’s started out as a fairly minor cable critics’ juggernaut, it has become more noted than one might have imagined when it started, so people have heard of it and they will vote for it.
Peter – Versatile cast gives it an edge over the competition.

TV Drama Actor

Michael C. Hall (Unanimous)

Wesley – He gives a terrific performance in Dexter, but has been poorly rewarded for it against many more meaty roles. After his appearance at the Globes and the revelation that he has cancer, sadly sympathy votes may put him over the top when he should be winning based solely on merit. Call it the Elizabeth Taylor factor, except for a talented performance.
Peter – Just a hunch.

TV Drama Actress

Glenn Close (Unanimous)

Wesley – Glenn Close is as close to a legend as any and her tough-as-nails portrayal will easily win her votes.
Peter – Quite simply the best, should sail to victory.

TV Comedy/Musical Ensemble

Glee (Unanimous)

Wesley – Who can resist dancing, singing, talented kids who enjoy the hell out of themselves?
Peter – The freshest thing on TV right now.

TV Comedy/Musical Actor

Alec Baldwin (Peter, Tripp)
Steve Carrell (Wesley)

Wesley – 30 Rock is still going strong and The Office is fading, but Steve Carrell still makes people laugh, so his chances are still high, though very much diminished as the show wanes.
Peter – I don’t know why, but certain actors once they win for something, particularly in comedy, seem to keep winning.

TV Comedy/Musical Actress

Toni Collette (Peter)
Tina Fey (Wesley)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Tripp)

Wesley – While Tina Fey’s name has been fading from memory now that she no longer has to mimic Sarah Palin, there may be enough residual love to win her this award, but Toni Collette’s multiple personalities feed the ego of every major actor who love their stars giving multiple performances in one program.
Peter – Never underestimate an Aussie.

TV Movie/Mini Actor

Kevin Bacon (Unanimous)

Wesley – Bacon has street cred and everyone knows who he is. Whether they’ve seen his show or not, they won’t be able to resist one of the most under-appreciated actors working in Hollywood.
Peter – Veteran performer in strong performance.

TV Movie/Mini Actress

Drew Barrymore (Wesley, Peter)
Jessica Lange (Tripp)

Wesley – SAG Awards are voted by the entire membership, so being better known is certainly a better deal and with the high profile win of Drew Barrymore less than a week ago, SAG voters will likely pick the bigger name of the Grey Gardens duo.
Peter – This one’s a horse race between Barrymore and co-star Jessica Lange, but I’m guessing Barrymore who has the largest role of the two will take it.

TV Stunt Cast

24 (Unanimous)

Wesley – Although Heroes has just as many stunts as 24, there’s more green screen work that goes into Heroes than 24, so old fashioned stunt artists will probably go for the more gritty, in-the-dirt kind of show.
Peter – It appears to employ more stunt people than any other series except Heroes, but is the better of the two at this point.

Costume Designers Guild

Period Costume Design

Complete Agreement
Nine
The Young Victoria
Agreements in 3
Bright Star (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
An Education (Peter, Tripp, Wes)
Agreements in 2
Inglourious Basterds (Peter, Wes)
Individual Predictions
Coco Before Chanel (Wesley)
The Lovely Bones (Tripp)
Sherlock Holmes (Wes)
A Single Man (Wesley)

Fantasy Costume Design

Complete Agreement
Avatar
Star Trek
Agreements in 3
District 9 (Wesley, Peter, Tripp)
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (Wesley, Tripp, Wes)
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (Wesley, Tripp, Wes)
Individual Predictions
The Lovely Bones (Wes)
Peter’s prediction is that there will only be three nominees in this category this year.

Contemporary Costume Design

Complete Agreement
The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
Agreements in 3
Crazy Heart (Wesley, Tripp, Wes)
Agreements in 2
Angels & Demons (Wesley, Wes)
Precious (Wesley, Tripp)
Individual Predictions
(500) Days of Summer (Peter)
The Hangover (Wes)
In the Loop (Peter)
Julie & Julia (Tripp)
The Messenger (Peter)

Producers Guild of America

Best Picture

Avatar (Wesley, Tripp, Wes)
The Hurt Locker (Peter)

Wesley – Only five critical successes have won this prize without being major box office successes: Slumdog Millionaire, Brokeback Mountain, American Beauty, Shine and The Crying Game. The rest were either the eventual Best Picture winner, major contenders that also had huge box office numbers or extravagant productions (Moulin Rouge). Although The Hurt Locker could benefit from a Brokeback Mountain-style juggernaut, this group supported Titanic over critic darling L.A. Confidential, so I would not doubt if they went for the soon-to-be all-time highest grossing film.
Peter – If they stay true to the name of the award, Zanuck would rather have associated with a film like The Hurt Locker than Avatar, so my bet is on that.
Tripp – Avatar should get another boost from the PGA. After all, it is going to be the most successful film of all time, and is a producer’s triumph if nothing else.
Wes – “Avatar” is just the sort of big budget, big-screen spectacle that the producers love to honor.

Best Animated Film

Up (Unanimous)

Wesley – 4 years, 3 Pixar films, 3 Pixar winners. Even the year that Happy Feet trumped Cars at the Oscars, the PGA went with the Pixar entry. I see no reason for that trend to be vanquished this year.
Peter – If they go for the small independent pick for Best Picture, they’ll go with the popular choice here.
Tripp – Pixar’s perfect mix of critical praise and box-office dominance should carry well here.

Best Documentary

The Cove (Unanimous)

Wesley – This is the most heralded Documentary of the year from critics groups This prize has only been given out twice before and the previous two winners were big critical successes of not terribly challenging material (Man on Wire and Sicko), so The Cove seems to fit that distinction fairly well.
Peter – The message documentary of the year.
Tripp – Pure guess.

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