Precursor Predictions: Spirit Awards & Razzies

With the Academy Awards Sunday and no guilds left in sight, all that remains are the traditional pre-Oscars awards shows. Both go the night before the Oscars (Saturday) and neither is a terrific Oscar barometer. One is the Spirit Awards, run by Film Independent, a gala for low-budget films that doesn’t generally match up very well with Oscar, though a concerted effort in the last few years has been made to try. The other is the anti-Oscars, the Golden Raspberry Awards, also known as the Razzies. They are meant to award the year’s worst films, but the people who vote on them usually just try to thumb their noses at what’s popular. So, here are our final precursor predictions for the 83rd Oscar season, starting with the precursor that might do a small bit of forecasting for Sunday.

SPIRIT AWARDS

Best Feature

127 Hours
Black Swan (Wesley)
Greenberg
The Kids Are All Right (RU:Wesley)
Winter’s Bone (Peter)

Wesley Lovell: The general rule for the Spirit Awards is that if there’s an Oscar nominee in the bunch, they will choose it…or one of them, as in the case of this category. Greenberg is the only one of the five nominees that isn’t also a Best Picture Oscar nominee. Even so, I think this category comes down to three films: Black Swan, The Kids Are All Right and Winter’s Bone. Bone has the style Spirit voters tend to favor, Swan was a huge box office success for an indie flick and Kids is a middle-ground kind of choice. Any one of them could actually win and since all three have nominations in Best Director, it comes down to what film has the best chance. And I give the edge to Swan simply because an indie film with a low budget that turns into a box office success should really appeal to this group of voters, proving their championing of Indies isn’t in vain.

Best Director

Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan (Wesley)
Danny Boyle – 127 Hours
Lisa Cholodenko – The Kids Are All Right (RU:Wesley)
Debra Granik – Winter’s Bone (Peter)
John Cameron Mitchell – Rabbit Hole

Wesley Lovell: Despite having four of the five nominees here also Best Feature nominees, only one of them is an Oscar nominee. Aronofsky has been working in the indie biz for quite some time, which should give him enough appeal to push him to the top.

Best First Feature

Everything Strange and New
Get Low (Wesley, Peter)
Night Catches Us (RU:Wesley)
The Last Exorcism
Tiny Furniture

Wesley Lovell: With no Oscar nominees here, I have to go with the one that not only feels like an indie but features some decently big names.

John Cassavetes Award

Daddy Longlegs (RU:Wesley, Peter)
The Exploding Girl (Wesley)
Lbs.
Lovers of Hate
Obselidia

Wesley Lovell: Two films really got rave reviews when they were released (at least that I remember noticing) and since The Exploding Girl seems like more of an arthouse darling, I can imagine it doing well, though Daddy Longlegs also has a shot.

Best Screenplay

The Kids Are All Right (Wesley)
Life During Wartime
Please Give
Rabbit Hole
Winter’s Bone (RU:Wesley, Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Two Oscar nominees on tap here, suggests that one of the two will win. Since I think The Kids Are All Right is running a close second for Best Feature, I’m giving it the edge here over third-running Winter’s Bone.

Best First Screenplay

Jack Goes Boating (RU:Wesley)
Lovely, Still (Wesley)
Monogamy
Obselidia
Tiny Furniture (Peter)

Wesley Lovell: A lot of press for three of these, but I think Lovely, Still may walk away with it, but I don’t know for sure.

Best Female Lead

Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right (RU:Wesley, Peter)
Greta Gerwig – Greenberg
Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman – Black Swan (Wesley)
Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine

Wesley Lovell: Except for Greta Gerwig, this is the EXACT Oscar lineup, so I’m going with my Oscar prediction and the actress that appears in the film I think will win Best Feature: Natalie Portman. Watch out for Annette Bening, though.

Best Male Lead

Ronald Bronstein – Daddy Longlegs
Aaron Eckhart – Rabbit Hole (RU:Wesley)
James Franco – 127 Hours (Wesley, Peter)
John C. Reilly – Cyrus
Ben Stiller – Greenberg

Wesley Lovell: The lone Oscar nominee in the bunch gets the prize.

Best Supporting Female

Ashley Bell – The Last Exorcism
Dale Dickey – Winter’s Bone (Wesley)
Allison Janney – Life During Wartime (RU:Wesley)
Daphne Rubin-Vega – Jack Goes Boating
Naomi Watts – Mother and Child (Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Without an Oscar nominee to go off of, I’m going with the only actress in a Best Featrue nominee: Dale Dickey.

Best Supporting Male

John Hawkes – Winter’s Bone (RU:Wesley)
Samuel L Jackson – Mother and Child
Bill Murray – Get Low
John Ortiz – Jack Goes Boating
Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right (Wesley, Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Two Oscar nominees reside in this category and since Mark Ruffalo has a lot of indie cred in his past, this may well be a tribute award.

Best Foreign Film

The King’s Speech (Wesley)
Kisses
Mademoiselle Chambon
Of Gods and Men (Peter)
Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives (RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: While I would love to suggest Of Gods and Men or Uncle Boonmee, The King’s Speech is an Oscar contender and I’m just going to cite that in hopes that I’m wrong.

Best Documentary

Exit Through the Gift Shop (Wesley)
Marwencol
Restrepo (RU:Wesley, Peter)
Sweetgrass
Thunder Soul

Wesley Lovell: Two more Oscar nominees, two more chances to be wrong. I’ll hit on Exit Through the Gift Shop because it’s about art.

Best Cinematography

Black Swan (Wesley)
Greenberg
Never Let Me Go
Tiny Furniture
Winter’s Bone (RU:Wesley, Peter)

Wesley Lovell: The lone Best Picture nominee is my pick since it’s a strong contender for an upset at the Oscars.

Piaget Producers Award

Au Revoir Taipei (RU:Wesley) (RU:Wesley)
Meek’s Cutoff (Wesley, Peter)
The Myth of the American Sleepover

Wesley Lovell: No more Oscar nominees for these remaining awards, so I’ll go with Meek’s Cutoff since it has the most press of any of these.

Acura Someone to Watch Award

Hossein Keshavarz – Dog Sweat
Laurel Nakadate – The Wolf Knife (RU:Wesley, Peter)
Mike Ott – Littlerock (Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: I have no idea, so I’ll go with Littlerock.

AVEENO Truer than Fiction Award

Marwencol (Wesley)
Sweetgrass (RU:Wesley, Peter)
Summer Pasture

Wesley Lovell: Marwencol is just bizarre enough to be a perfect choice.

GOLDEN RASPBERRY (RAZZIE) AWARDS

Worst Picture

The Bounty Hunter
The Last Airbender
Sex and the City 2 (RU:Wesley, Peter)
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (Wesley)
Vampires Suck

Wesley Lovell: Personally, I would choose Last Airbender, but the Razzies go for either A) the biggest names or B) the most popular, so expect Eclipse to do well with Sex and the City 2 a possible victor.

Worst Director

Jason Friedberg & Aaron Seltzer – Vampires Suck
Michael Patrick King – Sex and the City 2 (Peter)
M. Night Shyamalan – The Last Airbender
David Slade – The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (RU:Wesley)
Sylvester Stallone – The Expendables (Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: While I want to side with the anti-Twilight contingent, I wonder if the bigger names here, M. Night Shyamalan and Sylvester Stallone might prevail. I give the edge to Stallone, but wouldn’t be surprised by anything.

Worst Actor

Jack Black – Gulliver’s Travels
Gerard Butler – The Bounty Hunter
Ashton Kutcher – Killers / Valentine’s Day
Taylor Lautner – The Twilight Saga: Eclipse / Valentine’s Day (RU:Wesley)
Robert Pattinson – Remember Me / The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (Wesley, Peter)

Wesley Lovell: While I think the Twilight boys duking it out might result in another winner, I’m giving the advantage to Pattinson because his character’s so emo.

Worst Actress

Jennifer Aniston – The Bounty Hunter (RU:Wesley)
Miley Cyrus – The Last Song
The Four ‘Gal Pals’ – Sex and The City 2 (Wesley)
Megan Fox – Jonah Hex
Kristen Stewart – The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (Peter)

Wesley Lovell: A chance to reward four actresses for one film? One that people have lambasted all year, I think they have this in a cat walk…I mean cake walk.

Worst Supporting Actor

George Lopez – Marmaduke / The Spy Next Door / Valentine’s Day (Peter)
Billy Ray Cyrus – The Spy Next Door (RU:Wesley)
Dev Patel – The Last Airbender
Jackson Rathbone – The Last Airbender / The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (Wesley)
Rob Schneider – Grown Ups

Wesley Lovell: A difficult decision, but starring in two of the most derided movies of the year may give unknown Jackson Rathbone the lead, though watch out for Lopez (because he’s nominated for so many films) and Billy Ray Cyrus (because he’s well known and has been a jerk in the news lately)

Worst Supporting Actress

Jessica Alba – The Killer Inside Me / Little Fockers / Machete / Valentine’s Day (Peter)
Cher – Burlesque
Liza Minnelli – Sex and the City 2 (RU:Wesley)
Nicola Peltz – The Last Airbender
Barbra Streisand – Little Fockers (Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: In any other year, the four-star (# of films, not quality) actress Jessica Alba would be leading, but with the likes of Cher, Liza and Babs in a category, you have to think major name recognition may play a factor.

Worst Screen Couple/Ensemble

The Entire Cast of Sex and The City 2 (Wesley, Peter)
The Entire Cast of The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (RU:Wesley)
The Entire Cast of The Last Airbender
Jennifer Aniston & Gerard Butler – The Bounty Hunter
Josh Brolin’s Face & Megan Fox’s Voice – Jonah Hex

Wesley Lovell: Two awards to the entire cast of Sex and the City 2? The phrase two for “2” would have a nice ring to it.

Worst Eye-Gouging Use of 3D

Cats & Dogs 2: Revenge Of Kitty Galore
Clash of the Titans
The Last Airbender (Wesley, Peter)
The Nutcracker 3D
Saw 3D (RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: I have to go with Worst Feature nominee Last Airbender, though it could just as easily be Saw 3D.

Worst Screenplay

The Last Airbender
Little Fockers
Sex and the City 2 (RU:Wesley, Peter)
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (Wesley)
Vampires Suck

Wesley Lovell: Being Worst Feature may carry with it certain disadvantages, like picking up Worst Screenplay honors, though Sex and the CIty 2 and Last Airbender have potential, the latter simply because fans of the animated series may take it to task for its bloodless and grating adaptation.