In little over an hour, we’ll know the full extent to which the Golden Globe Awards have either matched the Screen Actors Guild or repudiated them. Since only 2,000 members of SAG are selected for the nominating committee from a significantly larger body, samples can often be unrepresentative of the body as a whole, thus odd-ball years like this one. Globe voters, on the other hand, are a fairly immutable group with all members voting each year. They also have tried a little more diligently recently to predict the Oscars, for expect these to fall in line better with current thoughts.

I haven’t written a Golden Globes predictions article in a very long time, so I’m likely very rusty. These things require lots of practice, but here goes anyway. I’ll try to give some brief commentary as I go along.

Picture Drama:
Carol
Creed
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight

I wanted to put Brooklyn in this list, but Creed and Carol both seemed more likely. Creed has the feel-good element that Globes voters tend to love and Carol has the Weinstein machine behind it and Globes voters tend to be very favorable towards his machinations.

Picture Comedy:
The Big Short
Joy
The Martian
Spy
Trainwreck

Joy is the iffiest proposition on this list simply because I don’t know if the voters were screened the film in advance. Presuming they were, it should make a placement. I couldn’t think of many other “comedies” that would fit in this category, so I didn’t have too much trouble isolating to five.

Actor Drama:
Johnny Depp – Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
Tom Hanks – Bridge of Spies
Michael B. Jordan – Creed

At the last minute, I substitute in Michael B. Jordan for Eddie Redmayne. If Creed’s in for Best Picture, it’s certainly in for actor and supporting actor. Deep, DiCaprio and Hanks are significant players in the international film community, which gives them an opportunity.

Actress Drama:
Cate Blanchett – Carol
Brie Larson – Room
Rooney Mara – Carol
Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn
Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl

I think Mara and Vikander are probably the weakest here largely because the category is chock-full of competition. Yet, considering the bruhaha over category placement and their decision to slot them as lead, it seems very likely they’ll pick up both.

Actor Comedy:
Christian Bale – The Big Short
Steve Carell – The Big Short
Bradley Cooper – Joy
Matt Damon – The Martian
Bill Hader – Trainwreck

I am dubious of Hader’s chances. The only thing that got me to put him here is the fact that Trainwreck will be a big contender. Bale should probably be in support and may ultimately show up there giving this category some breathing room to pull in someone, but who I’m not immediately sure.

Actress Comedy:
Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
Melissa McCarthy – Spy
Amy Schumer – Trainwreck
Meryl Streep – Ricki and the Flash
Lily Tomlin – Grandma

This was the toughest category to pick so far. Other than Lawrence, McCarthy and Schumer, I don’t really think there are any solid players.

Supporting Actor:
Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation
Michael Keaton – Spotlight
Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight
Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone – Creed

I replaced Jacob Tremblay with Sylvester Stallone because I had almost forgot he was in the competition. It’s possible the either or both of the Spotlight boys depart from the list.

Supporting Actress:
Jane Fonda – Youth
Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
Rachel McAdams – Spotlight
Helen Mirren – Trumbo
Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs

Alicia Vikander’s Ex Machina performance could bump one of these and it’s more likely Jane Fonda than Jennifer Jason Leigh, but if voters didn’t see The Hateful Eight, they might not pick it.

Director:
Todd Haynes – Carol
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – The Revenant
Tom McCarthy – Spotlight
George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott – The Martian

This was tough only because I didn’t think Todd Haynes would make the list, but I put him there because of the Weinstein connection. I’m also not sure on Inarritu since his film screened so late.

Screenplay:
The Big Short
Carol
The Martian
Spotlight
Steve Jobs

There are a lot of films that could show up here and, more than ever, it could be the one category that better predicts what’s going on at the Academy. Other than Spotlight, I wouldn’t be shocked to see any of these other films replaced.

Original Score:
Brooklyn
Carol
The Danish Girl
The Revenant
Sicario

Original Song:
Love Me Like You Do – Fifty Shades of Grey
One Kind of Love – Love & Mercy
See You Again – Furious 7
Til It Happens to You – The Hunting Ground
Writings on the Wall – Spectre

Animated Feature:
Anomalisa
Inside Out
The Peanuts Movie
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There

Foreign Film:
The Assassin
Labyrinth of Lies
Mustang
Son of Saul
The Tribe
The Big Short
Joy
The Martian
Spy
Trainwreck

Actor Drama:
Johnny Depp – Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
Tom Hanks – Bridge of Spies
Michael B. Jordan – Creed

Actress Drama
Cate Blanchett – Carol
Brie Larson – Room
Rooney Mara – Carol
Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn
Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl

Actor Comedy:
Christian Bale – The Big Short
Steve Carell – The Big Short
Bradley Cooper – Joy
Matt Damon – The Martian
Bill Hader – Trainwreck

Actress Comedy:
Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
Melissa McCarthy – Spy
Amy Schumer – Trainwreck
Meryl Streep – Ricki and the Flash
Lily Tomlin – Grandma

Supporting Actor:
Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation
Michael Keaton – Spotlight
Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight
Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone – Creed

Supporting Actress:
Jane Fonda – Youth
Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
Rachel McAdams – Spotlight
Helen Mirren – Trumbo
Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs

Director:
Todd Haynes – Carol
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – The Revenant
Tom McCarthy – Spotlight
George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott – The Martian

Screenplay:
The Big Short
Carol
The Martian
Spotlight
Steve Jobs

Original Score:
Brooklyn
Carol
The Danish Girl
The Revenant
Sicario

This is still a tough race. I wanted to put Inside Out and Star Wars here, but Star Wars hasn’t screened yet and unless they vote for it note-unheard, it probably won’t show up. Brooklyn may be the weaker of these, though I could easily replace Carol as well.

Original Song:
Love Me Like You Do – Fifty Shades of Grey
One Kind of Love – Love & Mercy
See You Again – Furious 7
Til It Happens to You – The Hunting Ground
Writings on the Wall – Spectre

These seem like the most star-studded submissions with the Love & Mercy song feeling the least “major” of the group.

Animated Feature:
Anomalisa
Inside Out
The Peanuts Movie
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There

I would have put The Good Dinosaur in, but it’s bombing at the box office, which might make it a bit weaker. I then had to choose between a number of foreign titles to fill the list. I ultimately went with Studio Ghibli, but Kahlil Gibran’s The Prophet or Boy and the World could easily fit in.

Foreign Film:
The Assassin
Labyrinth of Lies
Mustang
Son of Saul
The Tribe

I’m taking a big stab at these since the Globe voters are very weird with this category. Only Assassin and Son of Saul seem like sure things, but even they could be replaced by the voters’ whims.