So, in the first day or two after nominations are announced, we’re often in such a hangover of information overload that when we make predictions within that time, we sometimes make rash decisions. Our contributors have taken a moment to calm down after the hangover and make some new predictions. Here they are. And we’ve added runners-up to give more info on what’s happening. (Update (12:23p CT): Three categories had some of the runners-up data left off. This has been corrected for Animated Feature, Original Song and Makeup)

Now that we’ve had a chance to digest all of the Oscar nominations, we’re taking our first stab at predicting this year’s winners. We reserve the right to change them at any time.

KEY:

PICTURE

• The Social Network (O) (O) (O) (O)

Runners-Up

• The King’s Speech (H) (H) (H) (H)

ANIMATED FEATURE

• Toy Story 3 (O) (O) (O) (O)

Runners-Up

• How to Train Your Dragon (H) (H)
• The Illusionist (H) (H)

DIRECTOR

• David Fincher – The Social Network (O) (O) (O) (O)

Runners-Up

• David O. Russell – The Fighter (H) (H) (H) (H)

ACTOR

• Colin Firth – The King’s Speech (O) (O) (O) (O)

Runners-Up

• Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network (H) (H)
• James Franco – 127 Hours (H) (H)

ACTRESS

• Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right (O) (O)
• Natalie Portman – Black Swan (O) (O)

Runners-Up

• Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right (H) (H)
• Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone (H)
• Natalie Portman – Black Swan (H)

SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Christian Bale – The Fighter (O) (O) (O) (O)

Runners-Up

• Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech (H) (H) (H) (H)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Melissa Leo – The Fighter (O) (O)
• Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit (O) (O)

Runners-Up

• Amy Adams – The Fighter (H)
• Melissa Leo – The Fighter (H) (H)
• Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit (H)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• The Kids Are All Right (O)
• The King’s Speech (O) (New)(H) (O)

Runners-Up

• Another Year (H)
• Inception (H)
• The Kids Are All Right (H) (H)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• The Social Network (O) (O) (O) (O)

Runners-Up

• 127 Hours (H)
• True Grit (H)
• Winter’s Bone (H) (H)

ORIGINAL SCORE

• The King’s Speech (O)
• The Social Network (O) (O) (New)(H)

Runners-Up

• The King’s Speech (H) (H) (H)
• The Social Network (H)

SONG

• “If I Rise” – 127 Hours (O) (O)
• “We Belong Together” – Toy Story 3 (O) (O)

Runners-Up

• “Coming Home” – Country Strong (H) (H)
• “I See the Light” – Tangled (H) (H)

EDITING

• The Social Network (New)(H) (O) (O) (O)

Runners-Up

• 127 Hours (H)
• The Fighter (H) (H) (H)

CINEMATOGRAPHY

• Inception (O)
• The Social Network (O)
• True Grit (O) (O)

Runners-Up

• Inception (H) (H)
• The Social Network (H) (H)

ART DIRECTION

• Alice in Wonderland (O)
• Inception (New)(H)
• The King’s Speech (New)(H) (O)

Runners-Up

• Inception (H) (H)
• The King’s Speech (H) (H)

COSTUME DESIGN

• The King’s Speech (O) (O) (O)
• I Am Love (New)(H)

Runners-Up

• Alice in Wonderland (H)
• The King’s Speech (H) (H)
• The Tempest (H)

MAKEUP

• The Wolfman (O) (New)(H) (O) (O)

Runners-Up

• Barney’s Version (H) (H)
• The Way Back (H) (H)

SOUND MIXING

• Inception (O) (O) (O) (O)

Runners-Up

• The King’s Speech (H)
• The Social Network (H) (H)
• True Grit (H)

SOUND EDITING

• Inception (O) (O) (O) (O)

Runners-Up

• Toy Story 3 (H)
• TRON Legacy (N)
• True Grit (H)
• Unstoppable (H)

VISUAL EFFECTS

• Inception (O) (New)(H) (O) (O)

Runners-Up

• Alice in Wonderland (H) (H)
• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1 (H)
• Hereafter (H)

FOREIGN FILM

• Biutiful – Mexico (O)
• In a Better World – Denmark (O) (O) (O)

Runners-Up

• Biutiful – Mexico (H) (H) (H)
• In a Better World – Denmark (H)

DOCUMENTARY – FEATURE

• Exit Through the Gift Shop (O)
• Inside Job (O)
• Restrepo (O) (O)

Runners-Up

• Exit Through the Gift Shop (H)
• Inside Job (H) (H)
• Restrepo (H)

DOCUMENTARY – SHORT

• Poster Girl (O)
• Sun Come Up (O) (O)
• The Warriors of Quigang (O)

Runners-Up

• Strangers No More (H) (H)
• The Warriors of Quigang (H)

ANIMATED SHORT

• Day & Night (O) (O) (O) (O)

Runners-Up

• Let’s Pollute (H) (H) (H)
• The Lost Thing (H)

LIVE-ACTION SHORT

• The Confession (O) (O)
• God of Love (O) (O)

Runners-Up

• The Crush (H)
• God of Love (H)
• Wish 143 (H) (H)