Oscar prognosticators can argue until their hair turns grey what the importance of the Golden Globes mean. Sometimes the winners match up, sometimes they don’t match up. It doesn’t matter. Looking at what won a specific award in no way leads to what will win an Oscar. There is no one with a perfect track record in that regard.
The Golden Globes can teach us something very important about the races, however. It is our first real glimpse into a room full of Hollywood elite (many of who are Academy voters or representative of the voting body), and see how they are reacting to the winners and nominees. You can tell when a winner gets only mild applause, or a nominee gets riotous applause, how Hollywood is viewing that contender. Here are a few thoughts on what the Globes, and the mood in the room, can tell us about the races going on.
Best Picture/Best Director: The response for Avatar and James Cameron was warm, but in no way the most popular film of the evening. Kathryn Bigelow seemed to get the largest response of the director nominees, and there was a lot of applause for The Hurt Locker. People seem to be arguing that these wins push Avatar into the front runner position, and it certainly doesn’t hurt, but no one is pointing out that Avatar is a film seemingly made for this crowd: an international blockbuster that seems to play almost better overseas than here in the States. This fight is far from over.
Best Actor: The standing ovation given to Jeff Bridges was easily the biggest of the night, and in most cases would signal a landslide win from here on out. He is going for a career-recognition win, is a beloved actor and that response showed that Hollywood is behind the idea of honoring him. However, his chief competition is George Clooney, and Clooney was the talk of the evening. With his organization of the Haiti telethon this week, everyone was focused on Clooney’s work, both on the red carpet and at the show. He was the center of attention, and this could propel him back into the middle of a fight. This one ain’t over yet folks.
Best Actress: This race has two front-runners, and thanks to the Globes split, both of the front-runners took away hardware (after tying Friday night at the BFCA). Bullock won the Drama award, which is usually a stronger precursor, but like Jeff Bridges in the Actor category, Meryl Streep has a long career on her side. Which one will the Academy choose: the bright, young star who has finally gotten her shot at an Award, or the most nominated Actress of all time shooting for a long-overdue this Oscar? Usually we would turn to SAG for the answer, but they could confuse stuff. They just gave the award to Meryl Streep last year, so giving it to Bullock would in no way be a snub of Streep. We won’t know this one until the Oscars, I’m afraid.
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz got a great ovation, and cleaned up yet another award. He would be a seeming front-runner. Neither Woody Harrelson nor Christopher Plummer got much attention, and one would think they would be the biggest obstacle in front of Waltz.
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique got a surprisingly large standing ovation. This all but sealed her Oscar win. It seems obvious that she is garnering awards and Hollywood is eating her up.
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