We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of August and see what films succeeded and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to October and see what has some potential.

Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts

August Retrospective

There were a lot of potential Oscar nominees that were revealed in August and nearly all of them were complete flops.

Both of Willem Dafoe’s long delayed films, Late Fame and The Birthday Party, came and went without much fanfare. The former got decent reviews but the latter did not. Still, with neither blowing away critics or audiences, I can’t imagine Dafoe making the list for either of these.

Not the worst of reviews but The End of Oak Street was not an acclaimed film by any stretch of the imagination. It was mostly ignored at the box office and without popularity, and being a genre pic, I can’t imagine anyone taking this one Oscar seriously, not even in the tech categories.

Solid reviews but anemic box office will mean The Rivals of Amziah King is quickly forgotten. Whenever a title gets pushed to the next year, it’s a sign that the studio isn’t confident in its chances. Releasing it then in the dead of August is a fate that will consign it to the recycle bin of history.

Tony got strong reviews and many were praising Dominic Sessa’s take on Anthony Bourdain. The platform release helped it earn a mediocre amount of box office but more than it might have on a strictly limited-only run. It’s possible that Sessa remains in the conversation until the end of the year but I wouldn’t bet too much on it. The film’s already faded from memory and it’s going to be on life support until and unless critics groups revive it at the end of the year.

One of the better reviewed releases of August, Union County has been invisible at the box office. After five weeks of release, it’s only made just over $140,000. That’s not a great total and although Will Poulter might have a long shot’s chance at a nomination, I’d be more confident in Sessa being a contender than Poulter.

That leaves us with two high profile releases. The Dog Stars is director Ridley Scott’s latest attempt to reviving his flagging career. Unfortunately, the mediocre reviews the film received and its thrashing at the box office, the film rose and fell exceedingly quickly and while it was never going to compete in the top categories, he at least could hope the craft voters would rescue him but even that seems unlikely at this point.

And finally, there’s Coyote vs. Acme. Warner Bros. buried this film as a tax write off and never intended to release it to theaters. What changed their mind? Who knows? Maybe it was an attempt to curry favor with Paramount’s board who are in the process of trying to acquire the studio and it needed a hit. Whatever the reason, it released to strong reviews. The box office was decent but it doesn’t look like it will top $100 million at the domestic box office and that marks it as an underwhelming success. The Academy doesn’t have many categories in which it could compete and Best Animated Feature has long avoided mixed-media movies, so barring its exclusion from that race, I can’t see where it has any other chances unless the visual effects branch decide to throw it a bone.

And so August goes out not with a bang but a whimper. The likelihood of Oscar nominations for any of the films is low and so it will be up to next month to energize Oscar season.

October Forecast
There are a staggering twelve films on my list of potential Oscar contenders releasing in October. They range from big budget studio releases to small budget indies and all pathways in between. I’ll split them into three box office groups, major releases, mid-range releases, and minor ones. It’s fairly interesting to see that the Oscar potential forms a reverse bell curve across those titles with the mid-range ones being the least susceptible to Oscar contention.

The first of the major releases might not quite fit into that category if it weren’t for its lead: Tom Cruise. Cruise rarely stars in films that aren’t box office hits these days and Digger has just the right level of stunt casting and sociopolitical commentary to potentially be this year’s One Battle After Another at least in terms of critical acclaim and box office success. Director Alejandro G. Iñárritu doesn’t need to do much to get in Oscar’s good graces. Every one of his 7 feature films have been nominated for Oscars. Amores Perros and Bardo are the only ones that didn’t fare well but the former was before his breakthrough in American breakthrough in 21 Grams and Bardo only got in for cinematography and nothing else. Sure, Bardo was his last film but we don’t yet have a pattern to guide us. The film before that was The Revenant, which scored 12 nominations and won 3, including him for Best Directing and for lead Leonardo DiCaprio. Bardo is thus a one-off and by all indications, Digger should be a return to form unless critics drag the film like Bardo. We’ll have to see since he skipped all the festivals with this one.

The Social Reckoning is a pseudo-sequel to The Social Network. The only reasons it’s even remotely connected are both films were written by Aaron Sorkin and both films contain the word “Social.” Beyond that, there’s little connection as the stars are completely different. However, that prior connection keeps this one squarely in the realm of possibility. Sorkin puts himself in the director’s seat for his fourth feature film, following Oscar nominee Being the Ricardos and his second film since his big Oscar contender The Trial of the Chicago 7. With Oscar winner Mikey Madison in the lead, Oscar nominee Jeremy Strong as Mark Zuckerberg, and Emmy winners Jeremy Allen White and Betty Gilpin on deck, it at least has some strong potential. Sorkin is sure to be in the competition for Best Original Screenplay (or adapted if the Academy decides this really is a sequel to Social Network) but the film is facing some headwinds from the festival beat. Still, keep an eye on the reviews for this one as they will determine its Oscar trajectory and not the box office.

The weakest on my list of four major releases, Verity is the least likely to end up in Oscar’s good graces. Sure, it’s another Anne Hathaway release and she’s popular but her nomination, if there is one, is more likely to come out of The Odyssey than this film. It also looks like a paranormal romantic thriller and the Academy doesn’t typically love those. But exceptionally strong box office and critical acclaim could change that calculus but I’m only seeing a very narrow path towards that opportunity.

Why I’m not saying Clayface is the weakest lies in its Oscar chances. For Verity, it would hope for above-line recognition. For this superhero film, its Oscar prospects are incredibly narrow: Best Makeup & Hairstyling and Best Visual Effects. Depending on how much the film relies on VFX for its makeup work will dictate whether the Academy’s makeup members will consider it. Think Nicole Kidman’s nose in The Hours. Regardless, considering the effects on display, it has at least the potential to be on the shortlist for the Visual Effects category, though its chances could be torpedoed by a box office or critical flop.

Will these next four films be released wide? Possibly, but they could also platform into a wide release. They won’t command large swaths of theater screens but they could be unassuming hits. Sense and Sensibility probably has the best chance out of all of them. The classic novel adaptation has a lot of fans and if the film is even remotely good, it could do well with audiences. The question is whether critics will line up behind it the way they did Ang Lee’s version in 1995. That film did well with the Oscars and could prove a litmus test for how this film will perform. If critics trash it, its chances drop to almost nil, though Production Design and Costume Design will still be distinct possibilities. Beyond that, it will live or die by the critics’ pens.

Klara and the Sun is being advertised in a way that suggests it will start wide even if it might perform better starting in a small number of theaters and building word of mouth. What makes this film a contender is the combination of director Taika Waititi’s talent and the source material by Kazuo Ishiguro whose films have sometimes performed well with the Academy eve if only minorly. The combination could be potent. That said, it avoided most of the major festivals and is releasing at BFI London in October, which will be cutting it a bit close to build buzz. Still, Waititi’s visual style and the futuristic setting make it at least a craft contender even if above-the-line it fails to spark interest.

It’s impossible to know how a bizarre film like Wicker could perform with critics or audiences. It features award-caliber performers (Alexander Skarsgård, Olivia Colman, and Peter Dinklage) but the premise is rather outlandish. That said, I can imagine a lot of buzz building around the hot wicker man concept and turning this into a surprise hit. That might position it well for a chance at a Makeup & Hairstyling nomination for the film but it will be critics who determine if the film and its stars are at all in the hunt for Oscar nominations. It released at Sundance this year but hasn’t built much in the way of Oscar buzz so its chances might be slight but with enough positive critic reviews and a massive box office, things might turn around for the film.

For A Talent for Murder, it will be the box office that really boosts this film’s chances. Its positive response from Toronto will help but star Helen Mirren and recent Tony winner Alden Ehrenreich could be in for consideration if the film takes off at the box office as I expect it might. The film is a bit too genre-restrictive for broad Oscar support but one never knows when films like The Substance can overcome.

Finally, there are four films that I put in the minor release category but nothing about any of these titles is truly minor, especially the one that could release wide: Wildwood. Why I put this down as a minor release is how much of a struggle Laika has had getting its films sold at the box office. Kubo and the Two Strings, for example, had immense critical acclaim but only made $48 million at the box office. Wildwood should expect numbers in that range but since it hasn’t been seen yet, we don’t know for sure if this is another hit for Laika or if it will be a flop. It premieres at BFI London in October, so we will find out shortly after that what its prospects are. That said, the film is all but guaranteed an Oscar berth in the Animated Feature category. Every single Laika animated film has scored a nomination there, including the weakest one they’ve released to date: 2019’s Missing Link. It’s too good a record to be ignored. What matters most is whether it can branch out into other categories. Kubo managed to pull of a rare animated Visual Effects nomination and based on the trailers for this film, that might not be out of the realm of possibility for this one. If the film impresses critics, it is possible that Laika might finally win its long-deserved Oscar win in Animated Feature, so this is one to watch.

Fjord has the Palme d’Or from Cannes supporting its bid as one of the year’s major Oscar contenders. Strong word of mouth from later festivals it also entered suggests the film is definitely in contention at the Oscars and like Anatomy of a Fall, it has the right profile to enter the Oscar contest strongly. Cristian Mungiu has been bubbling under for Oscar recognition for years and this could finally be the film that does it.

Speaking of foreign entries into this year’s Oscars, La Bola Negra is a film that has been trying to build buzz since its Cannes release. It also showed up in Telluride and Toronto. A timebending narrative that focuses on the history of gay men could have a lot of potential as an Oscar contender if reviews from critics turn out better than ones from audiences. The few responses I’ve seen have praised elements of the film but not the entire production. That could lead to disappointment in its fans. We will have to see how it performs in the precursors before genuinely knowing where the film’s Oscar prospects lie.

With strong reviews and the Grand Jury Prize from Venice, Possible Love has quietly emerged as one of the year’s Best International Feature contenders. Whether the film can cross over at the Oscars remains to be seen but it has the potential. This one may have to wait until the precursors as well to determine its overall chances.

And after over 2,000 words, that’s all I have to say this month. Next we’ll see the less verbose thoughts from Pete and Thomas.

Pete Patrick’s Thoughts

August Retrospective

No films of note opened in August.

October Forecast

Finally, a month that shows promise. Here then, in the order of their release are the ten films most likely to be remembered by awards bodies in the coming months:

Alejando G. Inarritu’s eagerly anticipated caper film, Digger starring Tom Cruise, John Goodman, Riz Ahmed, and Sandra Huller.

Aaron Sorkin’s The Social Reckoning with Jeremy Allen White as Jeff Horwitz, the Wall Street Journal reporter hired by Facebook’s Frances Haugen (Mikey Madison) to blow the whistle on the company led by Jeremy Strong as Mark Zuckerberg.

Cannes Film Festival winner Fjord, directed by Christian Mungiu with Renate Reisnve and Sebastion Stan as immigrant Romanian parents living in Norway who come under the scrutiny of that country’s legal system.

Georgia Oakley’s take on Jane Austin’s Sense and Sensibility starring Daisy Edgar-Jones and Esmée Creed-Miles

Jennifer Peedom’s Tenzing, a biography of the first man to reach the summit of Mount Everest starring Genden Phuntsok, Tom Hiddleston, Willem Dafoe, Caitriona Balfe.

An almost four-hour long documentary on Elon Musk simply called Musk.

Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi’s La Bola Negra (The Black Ball) for which the two Javiers won the Cannes Film Festival award for their direction, a film about three eras of gay history that are connected in unforeseen ways. Guitarricadelafuente, Miguel Bernadieu, Carolos Gonzalez, Penélope Cruz, and Glenn Close star.

Noah Segan’s The Only Living Pickpocket in New York provides John Turturro’s with his latest bid for Oscar glory.

Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland for which he also won a Canne Film Festival award for Best Director starring Hanns Zichler as writer Thomas Mann and Sandra Hüller as his daughter in post-World War II Germany.

Travis Knight’s Wildwood, an animated feature about a girl on a bicycle in search of her kidnapped brother voiced by a cast that includes Peyton Elizabeth Lee, Jacob Tremblay, Carey Mulligan, Mahershala Ali, Awkwafina, and Angela Bassett.

Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts

August Retrospective

There were only two August releases that seems a possibility.

The Rivals of Amziah King was talked about as a possible Oscar contender last year. Now that it has finally been released, perhaps it will be one this year. Matthew McConaughey got great reviews, his best in years, but not sure if that will be enough to get him a nomination, especially with the film opening in August.

Coyote vs. Acme was a fun movie, mixing live action and animation. I am not certain if there will be enough animation for it to qualify for animated feature, but it would be a fun addition to the mix.

October Forecast

We are finally getting into the fall prestige releases, so there are several films that could rack up Oscar nomination. The big question now is if they are as good as we hope.

Digger looks to be a major player, with an almost unrecognizable Tom Cruise in the mix for best actor. It also looks likely to pick up noms for supporting actor, original screenplay, and more. The trailer does not do a great job of selling the film, but it is one that is highly anticipated.

I am not sure what to make of The Social Reckoning, a companion piece though not a sequel to the excellent The Social Network. At this point an adapted screenplay nomination seems likely, and others like picture and acting will have to wait until we have seen int.

Fjord is getting great reviews and should get nominations for picture, director, actor, actress, and original screenplay. It is one of the few films opening in the month where we have reviews to go by.

Tenzing has been talked up for its score, but not sure that it could land any other nominations.

Sense and Sensibility could prove as popular as the 1995 version, or it may fall flatter. If well received, it could do well across the board, including picture, actress, supporting actress, adapted screenplay, costume design, production design, and makeup and hairstyling. This is one we will have to wait and see how it is reviewed.

Klara and the Sun has been talked about as the film that could net Amy Adams a seventh Oscar nomination, though as lead or supporting has been up for debate. I am not sure that will happen, though she is one of my favorite actresses.

Fatherland also is getting strong reviews and is on the cusp for several nominations. Sandra Hüller seems the most likely for best actress, but picture, director, original screenplay, and cinematography also could be possibilities. The director’s previous work, Ida, was nominated for two Oscars and won for foreign language film, and this one should outdo it in nominations easily.

John Turturro is getting perhaps the best reviews of his career for The Only Living Pickpocket in New York, but his unshowy performance may not be enough in a very crowded field.