We’re looking at Oscar contenders as they release and trying to determine which films have potential and which have wasted it. Let’s look back at the month of May and see what films succeeded and faltered. Then we’ll look forward to July and see what has some potential.

Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts

May Retrospective
May was an unexceptional month for Oscar contenders. Major ones bowed but few were hits. Let me break down my selections in the order I covered them in our May forecast article.

Animal Farm was the first film on my list and it was there more to get it out of the way than anything else. I’m not surprised at how poorly it fared either with critics or the box office. It was a flop. One of the worst animated films of the last few years, the film is definitely out of the running for Oscar consideration.

I would never have said I Love Boosters was a major Oscar contender but its strong reviews certainly bolster its profile. That said, it was quickly drowned out by other releases and although Production Design and Costume Design categories aren’t out of the question, I don’t expect either to be in the cards for the film.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 was well enough reviewed and a big enough hit at the box office that it won’t be quickly forgotten. That said, Meryl Streep’s nomination for the film first film was one of only two and unless the Oscars have a weak showing for female actors, the film is unlikely to pick up anything at the Oscars. Of course film’s about fashion are strong contenders for Best Costume Design so it could still materialize there but I suspect it will largely be forgotten by year’s end.

On the Best Visual Effects and Best Sound front, The Mandalorian and Grogu is the latest big screen outing for the Star Wars franchise and it could compete in both categories. The box office performance started strong but has quickly dropped off while the critics were largely happy with it. That being said, the film will have a lot of competition this year and I just can’t imagine it being a final five feature in either category.

Lastly, we have Tuner. The film did well with critics and the specialty box office was solid, meaning it could certainly have legs. It’s tough for films that release as early as May to stay in the competition all year, especially when they aren’t smash box office hits (Sinners), but it could well be bolstered by critics groups late in the year.

And with my May recap done, let’s dig into July.

July Forecast
Featuring four titles, July looks a bit anemic for Oscar contenders. I’m going to highlight the four films in order I think they can accomplish Oscar citations.

Young Washington is a period film about George Washington’s rise to prominence in the war for independence. It looks like a standard issue biopic so there’s nothing making it stand out in a crowded marketplace. That it’s produced by Angel Studios should give everyone pause in terms of whether the film can make a splash with Oscar voters. The studio has yet to produce a critically acclaimed smash hit and playing on the safe side isn’t always a good move for major Oscar contenders. That said, the period nature of the film could bolster its support in the craft categories but I imagine there will be many films released this year that are more likely to score nominations than this one.

For the latest animated-to-live-action transfer, Moana is coming along at the end of a rather dreadful period of poor performers, both in terms of box office appeal and critical acclaim. With a pipeline as stale as Disney’s, the likelihood of the film scoring Oscar nominations is low. Lilo & Stitch did manage to overcome genre fatigue and Moana is a popular animated feature but I suspect its box office success won’t translate into Oscar contention. Best Visual Effects is the only place I can genuinely see it competing and that competition will be heavy this year.

Another film that will be contending for Best Visual Effects is Spider-Man: Brand New Day, the latest Sony-produced Marvel film starring Tom Holland’s Peter Parker. The series has been quite popular with audiences but has never really caught on with Oscar voters. Although I rate its chances at a visual effects citation higher than Moana‘s, the chances are still slim.

And finally, after three unlikely contenders, we have one of the year’s major ones. Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey has generated controversy for casting Lupita Nyong’o as Helen of Troy and creating a new character for famed trans actor Eliot Page. However, that controversy smacked of desperation. Combine that fact with the quick sell out of advance tickets and it’s certain that Odyssey will be one of the year’s biggest box office hits. The only question remains is whether Oscar will take notice. The answer is: likely. Although Tenet was a flop, all of Nolan’s films since his Inception breakthrough have been major Oscar contenders. It will dominate the craft categories and will likely pull off high profile nominations for Best Picture and Best Directing and possibly also nominations for stars Matt Damon and Tom Holland. We’re looking at one of only two nearly-guaranteed double-digit nominees at the Oscars this year and the only thing that could derail that is an absolute critical drubbing.

And with that, I’m done with this month’s retrospective/forecast. Here’s what the others have to say:

Pete Patrick’s Thoughts

May Retrospective
The only May films that are likely to figure into year-end awards seem to be The Devil Wears Prada 2 and Pressure although neither seem like a major Oscar contender. 

July Forecast
The big Oscar hopeful releasing in July is The Odyssey with Spider-Man: Brand New Day possibly in the running for technical awards. Young Washington and the live-action version of Moana should also do well at teh box-office.

Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts

May Retrospective
May had only one release that seems a possible Oscar nominee.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 will likely get a nomination for costume design. The original managed a nomination for Meryl Streep, so perhaps some acting Oscars are a possibility, but doubtful.

Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu could pick up noms for visual effects and perhaps sound, but the lackluster critical notices mean it probably will not.

July Forecast
There is not much being released that looks likely to score nominations.

Minions & Monsters is an outside possibility for Animated Feature, but this series has not done well there.

If it is eligible, then Reading Lolita in Tehran could be a sleeper nominee for adapted screenplay or international film.

The big film of the month is the highly anticipated The Odyssey by Christopher Nolan. It could be a major player with nominations for picture, director, actor, adapted screenplay, visual effects, sound, costume design, and production design. Or it could get laughed off the screens. I am not sure which is more likely.