For our eleventh Rundown article, a category that’s been surprisingly competitive this year. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Actor as well as general commentary about the race. Friday, we’ll cover a companion category.

Best Actor

Winner Predictions

• Steve Carell – Foxcatcher
• Bradley Cooper – American Sniper
• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
• Michael Keaton – Birdman (PP O)(TL O)
• Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything (WL R) [New] (TB O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Michael Keaton – Birdman (WL R) [New] (TB O)
• Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything (PP O)(TL O)

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Wesley Lovell: The big question here will be: can Michael Keaton carry forward the precursor love to an Oscar win or will the marketing push Eddie Redmayne has undertaken for his role in The Theory of Everything push him over the time. We won’t know until the final envelopes are open. BAFTA didn’t muddy the race any with its selection of home-town guy Redmayne. SAG, however, may have indicated where voters are leaning with Redmayne’s win over a much better known actor, Keaton. Ultimately, the strength of Birdman with guilds may not be enough to push it over the top and unless the film is a much stronger Best Picture player than I suspect it is, his chances dwindle by the day. Redmayne’s playing the game quite well and although Keaton has delivered some of the season’s best speeches, he may not be able to give the big one with the more physically transforming work of Redmayne becoming Stephen Hawking seems the more difficult task. It may be another Mickey Rourke/Sean Penn situation. Rourke had a comeback smash with The Wrestler in 2008 and made a solid, impressive run through the precursors, including a Golden Globe award for Best Actor. Then Penn came roaring back at the Screen Actors Guild and it became a matter of physically transformative performance vs. a stellar career resurrection. Redmayne isn’t even close to Penn in terms of capability of gravitas and Keaton has had more sustained quality work than Rourke, but the type of performances are quite similar to the 2008 race. Ultimately, I think Redmayne will end up the victor for A) playing a better campaign and B) for doing work that seems more chameleonic. Redmayne had been my prediction for most of Oscar season until Keaton started dominating the precursors in a way that Penn never did, which led me to believe he could still pull it off. Without SAG, though, Keaton’s chances have diminished greatly and I’m returning to my original Redmayne prediction.
Peter J. Patrick: Redmayne has the momentum after his SAG and BAFTA wins, but I still think homeboy Keaton has a better shot at Oscar.
Tripp Burton: (Commentary and predictions updated 2/12/15 after post went live) I know a lot of people keep saying Michael Keaton is the front-runner, but Eddie Redmayne has won every precursor he needs. I can’t see him losing, unless Birdman proves to be a steamroller. But what about Bradley Cooper? Could American Sniper be a dark horse, and could the precursor nomination-less Cooper sneak in here? Possibly, but I’m staying with the precursor leader so far.
Thomas La Tourrette: This is perhaps the most difficult category to predict. Keaton and Redmayne have traded awards all season, though Redmayne has done better lately with the SAG and perhaps more expected BAFTA awards. However, I am voting with my heart here and going with Keaton. He created a new and incredibly rich character in Birdman and deserves to win. He has spoken well when receiving awards and the length of time he has been acting should help him win over Redmayne. Eddie did make Stephen Hawking into a real person for many of us, and was fantastic in the role. If the Academy were to award a British actor this year, they should give Benedict Cumberbatch the Oscar as I thought he did a better job than Redmayne. Though, truthfully, if anyone were to upset the top two, it would be Bradley Cooper for American Sniper, but that seems very unlikely. Redmayne may well win, but I will forecast a slightly sentimental vote pushing Keaton over the top in a very tight race.

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