For our fourteenth Rundown article, we examine a visual category as well as two categories that create the film’s initial vision. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Cinematography, Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay as well as general commentary about the race. Wednesday, we’ll cover the final two categories that give the film its look

Best Cinematography

Winner Predictions

• Birdman (WL O) (PP O) (TB R) [New] (TL O)
• The Grand Budapest Hotel
• Ida
• Mr. Turner
• Unbroken

Runner-Up Predictions

• The Grand Budapest Hotel (WL O) (TB R) [New] (TL R) [New]
• Unbroken (PP R) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: This is one of those categories that defies historical records. The Academy used to love large, outdoor productions with plenty of gorgeous vistas. Even in the recent past, they’ve preferred their films pretty in lieu of well framed. This is why it’s hard for me to go for a film like Birdman, which is not only shot almost entirely indoors, but lacks the visual pizzazz of past winners. That said, I have a hard time believing it won’t win. The photography is precisely why the film works so well. The Grand Budapest Hotel would be more fitting to some past winners because it’s richly colorful. Unbroken could win, but Roger Deakins will likely have to wait for a better-received film to receive his long-overdue Oscar. I could definitely see Mr. Turner winning simply because it’s the only film that mixes both outdoor vistas and rich colors. That it’s also designed to look like one of the subject’s paintings only gives it more credence for a win.
Peter J. Patrick: Birdman should take this one easily.
Tripp Burton: For the past several years, this award has gone to big, CGI-heavy epics; this year, none of those got nominated, so we have to look somewhere else. After the ASC win this weekend, Birdman should bring an easy second Oscar in a row for Emmanuel Lubezki. Maybe the one-take gimmickry of the film will substitute for CGI bravura, and it will be well deserved.
Thomas La Tourrette: This is one of the easiest categories to predict. The long tracking shots that gave the film a feeling of seamlessness will easily win a second Oscar in a row for Emmanuel Lubezki. The work was so virtuostic that it is hard to picture anything else winning. Mr. Turner had painterly work, Ida stark black and white, The Grand Budapest Hotel very formalized work, and Unbroken brought renowned cinematographer Roger Deakins his 12th nomination, but, once again, he will go winless. They all did good work and are worthy nominees, but this Oscar will undoubtedly go to Birdman.

Best Original Screenplay

Winner Predictions

• Birdman
• Boyhood
• Foxcatcher
• The Grand Budapest Hotel (PP R) [New] (PP R) [New] (TB R) [New] (TB R) [New]
• Nightcrawler

Runner-Up Predictions

• Birdman (WL R) [New] (TB R) [New] (TB R) [New]
• Boyhood (PP R) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: I had thought that one of the two Best Picture front-runners might win, but I began to suspect that this might be the only place for an auteur like Wes Anderson to triumph. With a long, bountiful history of quirky films, this will be the first opportunity many Academy members have felt that he could or should be rewarded. That said, both Boyhood and Birdman could win and either doing so could push it towards the Best Picture win. I’d suggest Birdman is a stronger contender than Boyhood for this award in the absence of The Grand Budapest Hotel.
Peter J. Patrick: The Grand Budapest Hotel should win this one in a walk.
Tripp Burton: Wes Anderson won the WGA this weekend, but he didn’t have to contend with the Globe-winning script for Birdman. This is probably the only chance they will have on Oscar night to award Wes Anderson, who masterminded the most nominated film of the evening, so my hunch is that he will get his consolation prize here. A Birdman sweep, or a real desire to give Richard Linklater a prize he may not win elsewhere, could make this a tighter race than it appears. But I doubt it.
Thomas La Tourrette: This has been a difficult category to predict. Birdman was winning the early awards, but the tide seems to have shifted to The Grand Budapest Hotel. None of the other nominees is really in play. I think that Birdman has the more interesting script, but unfortunately it looks like it will come up short. It was a very original idea, and played out well on screen, and it would deserve to win. If Wes Anderson was to win for screenplay, I wish it would have been for Moonrise Kingdom which I found a much more entertaining film. However, it does look like Anderson will claim his first ever Oscar for this.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Winner Predictions

• American Sniper
• The Imitation Game (WL O) (PP O)(TL O)
• Inherent Vice
• The Theory of Everything
• Whiplash (TB O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• American Sniper (WL O)
• The Imitation Game (TB O)
• Whiplash (PP O)(TL R) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: Racking up a win at the USC Scripter Awards and the Writers Guild of America helped give The Imitation Game a boost. The film hasn’t been doing well this Oscar season and the struggle may continue in this category. However, while The Theory of Everything rode a wave of support at BAFTA from its Best British Film citation, I suspect that it’s not even close to leading this pack. I’m giving the edge to The Imitation Game, but any of these, except Inherent Vice, could actually win.
Peter J. Patrick: This should be an easy win for The Imitation Game.
Tripp Burton: This is where things get interesting! The Imitation Game won the WGA and USC Scripter Awards, two very reliable precursors. But, Whiplash is competing in a category where it hasn’t had to compete elsewhere, and after a hearty BAFTA haul, it seems like it might be the most liked film of the bunch. This is a tight race, and I’m betting against the front-runner here, but I think Damien Chazelle isn’t going home empty handed on Sunday.
Thomas La Tourrette: The Imitation Game has long been listed as the front-runner in this category, and I still don’t really see anything taking its place. While the writers may have taken some liberties with Turing’s life, it was told in an interesting and coherent way, and easily deserves to win. The Theory of Everything was pleasantly told, but it was a much more by-the-book biography. Inherent Vice was a bit of an incoherent mess, so I can’t imagine it winning. American Sniper also took liberties in its telling, but it was a tense story about how war affects people and could be a dark horse. The timing might be slightly off for that, being released just too late to capitalize on its huge box office take. I could see it winning, especially if Sniper ends up taking more than just the sound awards. However, the biggest threat appears to be Whiplash which I was not sure would even be nominated when the Academy did a last-minute switch of it into the adapted screenplay competition. It does seem to have caught on with the Academy and might be drumming up enough support at the right time to win. This is how Sling Blade ended up winning in this category several years ago, and it might happen again. However, I will go with my gut instinct and predict that The Imitation Game will sneak out a victory in a very tight race.

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