For our second Rundown article, we examine two categories dealing with short films. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Documentary Short Subject and Best Live-Action Short Film as well as general commentary about the race. Wednesday, we’ll cover the category recognizing those who put everything together.

Best Documentary Short Subject

Winner Predictions

• Body Team 12 (TL O)
• Chau, Beyond the Lines
• Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
• A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness (WL O) (PP R) [New] (TB R) [New]
• Last Day of Freedom

Runner-Up Predictions

• Chau, Beyond the Lines (WL R) [New] (TB R) [New]
• A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness (TL O)
• Last Day of Freedom (PP R) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: Since I haven’t seen the nominees yet, this mostly guess work. A Girl in the River seems like the kind of title that piques interest and becomes a winner; however, I’ve been hearing good things about Chau, so it could be a spoiler, but I suspect if there’s an upset in my predictions, it will be for a documentary about the filmmaker who created Shoah.
Peter J. Patrick: I haven’t seen any of the nominees in two categories so my predictions are solely based on my impressions of the content of the shorts based on their IMDb descriptions.
Tripp Burton: I haven’t seen any of these yet, so I am going more on paper than practice here. HBO has done very well in this category in the past few years, which bodes well for honor killing documentary A Girl in the River. After all, they won a few years ago with another Pakistan-set film. HBO also has Claude Lanzmann, which gets the benefit of being about a movie. If they lose, I bet it will be to Chau, Beyond the Lines. This branch loves films about war and films about people battling disability, and it has both.
Thomas La Tourrette: The last couple years, there has been a clear frontrunner, but that is not the case with this set of films. Body Team 12 has the most word of mouth, but the very short film about body collectors during the ebola outbreak in Liberia is strong, but it actually would have benefitted from being longer. Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah gave an interesting perspective on the director, but would have benefitted from some judicious editing. Last Day of Freedom, about a man detailing having turned his brother in to the police for a violent crime, had a stunning oral story to tell. The use of animation to tell it felt distracting and distancing. Chau, Beyond the Lines is the only one that has a bit of hope, but watching victims of Agent Orange may be too painful for some voters. A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness was the most affecting and disturbing of the films, and the one that has stayed with me the most. It is about the honor killings by families in Pakistan of girls that defy their fathers. It is disturbing and some things that happen are basically incomprehensible to us. Chau could win, but it sounds more likely to go to Body Team 12. I will hope that the more deserving Girl in the River manages to pull the upset.

Best Live-Action Short Film

Winner Predictions

• Ave Maria (PP O)(TL O)
• Day One
• Everything Will Be Okay (TB R) [New]
• Shok
• Stutterer (WL O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Day One (PP R) [New]
• Shok (WL O)
• Stutterer (TB R) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: Another guess, but most of the chatter I’ve heard to date has been around Stutterer, but I could be completely wrong on that one.
Peter J. Patrick: I haven’t seen any of the nominees in two categories so my predictions are solely based on my impressions of the content of the shorts based on their IMDb descriptions.
Tripp Burton: I haven’t seen any of these yet, so I am going more on paper than practice here. Over the past few years, the Academy has leaned towards films centered around children more than anything else (except last year’s The Phone Call), so that would fare well on paper for Everything Will Be Okay and Shok. Ave Maria seems the most audience friendly, though, and Stutterer has shown to be an audience favorite, so this could really be up in the air.
Thomas La Tourrette: This was one of the strongest sets of live-action shorts that I have seen. Any of them could win, and I am okay with that. Usually, there are a couple that seem much weaker than the rest, but this is a good set. My personal favorite was Stutterer which is both humorous, a little uncomfortable, and ultimately hopeful. It was the shortest of the bunch, which will count against it, and the Academy does not always award humor here, but it is a charming film. Early word seems to be that Ave Maria is a likely winner. It is a wacky farce of a squabbling Jewish family having to deal with a group of mostly silent nuns. It may have been the least well-made film of the bunch, but the Israeli setting could help it win. The other three films were both longer and much more serious. Alles Wird Gut (Everything Will Be Okay) benefits from being the longest film, which often heralds a winner, but having the father be such a cipher may hurt its chances. Shok (Friend) which details uncomfortable incidences during the Serbian-Bosnian conflict is difficult to watch. The long-seated prejudices and hatred may be hard to grasp, but it does capture the period. Day One also has difficult parts to watch, though it also is slightly hopeful at the end. Day One will be a serious contender. The longer and more serious films have won the bulk of awards in this category lately, but I will go out on a limb and predict that Ave Maria will win, but will hope that Stutterer sneaks in for an upset.

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